🚨 Corbin Burnes Signs With The Diamondbacks! – INSTANT REACTON | Fantasy Baseball Advice

πŸ“… Published on: 2024-12-28 17:14:46

⏱ Duration: 00:29:32 (1772 seconds)

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πŸ“ Video Description:

Frank Stampfl and Chris Towers break down Corbin Burnes heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks on a six-year, $210 million deal! Also, Teoscar Hernandez is re-signing with the Dodgers!

0:00- Intro
1:15- Corbin Burnes to the Dbacks
8:30- Burnes’ early ADP
11:55- Updated Dbacks rotation
15:58- What are the Orioles doing?
22:35- Teoscar Hernandez back to Dodgers

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πŸ•΅οΈβ€β™‚οΈ Transcript:

[Music] out of nowhere the dback swoop in to sign one of the best pitchers in baseball Corbin Burns welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Saturday December 28th I am Frank stanfold joined by Chris Towers here to break down two major moves Corbin burn signing with the Dbacks teoscar Hernandez is headed back to the Dodgers and Bur turn to the Dbacks again from the top rope out of nowhere just the Dbacks swoop in and and get their guy here uh one of the best pitchers in baseball six years $210 million is the deal doesn’t get the 250 million that Corbin Burns was looking for but he did get a higher aav in this deal 35 million per year that is currently fifth highest among starting pitchers behind Zack Wheeler Jacob Grom Blake Snell and Garrick Cole love this move for the Dbacks we mostly heard the Giants and blue jays were interested but you know they they go in and and just build a huge strength of a rotation here uh out in Arizona Chris for Fantasy Burns will have tremendous run support the Dbacks just LED all of baseball in run scored by a lot it’s a solid Park to pitch in what do you think about the fit in Arizona there weren’t many situations that Corbin Burns could have gone to that would have been better than Baltimore at least as good as Baltimore and I think he found one um you look at the parks and and one thing that’ll stand out if you look at the stack has Park factors is Chase Field is the fifth best park in baseball for offense and Camden Yards is only 18th and so you might think oh that’s a pretty big Park downgrade not really it’s a 99 Park factor for Camden Yards 101 for Arizona so like there neither is on the extreme end of things they both have a tendency to suppress power and they both have a tendency to boost other types of extra base hits Arizona does that slightly more but all in all I I think it’s a negligible Park downgrade especially with the changes the Baltimore was making to their left field fences that were probably going to make it play a little more uh neutral so it might even be that he’s getting a park upgrade based on those changes but I think The Supporting Cast is a is actually maybe a a somewhat significant upgrade for Corbin burns when you look at last year Arizona depending on what defensive metric you look at you can get a result from the seventh best offense in baseball to the second or second seventh best defense in baseball excuse me to the second best defense in baseball in Arizona last year Baltimore more middle of the pack so I think it’s an upgrade there and then look Baltimore was fourth in runs scored last year it was a great part a great lineup the Oriol score the the excuse me it’s early for me for both us the the Diamondback scored a hundred more runs than the Orioles last season now you know adley Rutman had a down year but they are losing Anthony santand replacing with Tyler O’Neal who knows if that’s you know it could be a net neutral move but Tyler O’Neal misses a lot of time Arizona really hasn’t lost anyone I guess Christian Walker but they replac him with Josh Naylor so I think that’s pretty close to a neutral move for them so I I think you look at this and I didn’t move Corbin burns up in my rankings because frankly there’s just nowhere for him to move up but I think this is about as good of a landing spot as you could have hoped for and I think Corbin Burns might have figured some things out at the end of last season that could make him even better than he was last year yeah I think that last point is probably a bigger talking point for Corbin Burns than anything else related to his environment right Burns is one of the most reliable workhorses in the game he’s thrown 190 plus Innings three years in a row but his strikeout rate has dwindled his K percentage last four seasons 35.6% 30.5 25.5 and then down to 23% this past season so I could see Corbin Burns being a bit of a polarizing pitcher heading into 2025 you mentioned an adjustment that he made and in August he kind of made a mechanical adjustment to get his cutter back on track and then he had a great September so it’s a small sample size but how much do you put into that Chris like do you trust drafting Corbin Burns as a top five starting pitcher in fantasy heading into next season yeah so spec let’s get into the specifics of what happened because there there’s a great piece from the Baltimore Banner uh last September where he talked about he was blunt really about it in a way that you don’t see it’s one of my favorite quotes from last year he’s talking about the the cutter and the reason he threw the cutter was because he just NE he could never throw a good four seam fast and he made that change in 2020 2019 I think and that really helped his career takeoff and he said like my August probably cost me another sa Young Award like that’s how good of a season Corbin Burns was having last year and he said quote I was getting too efficient with how I was spinning it which was making it a bleepy four seam fastball and it was getting hit like a bleepy four seam fastball you can fill in the the bleep on your own there but basically what happened was he was getting more rise on his cutter and less horizontal movement and so it kind of ended up in between the cutter and a for seamer which is not a good place to be he he was doing a good job low kinging it getting soft contact earlier in the season but it just got crushed in August and he realized something had to change so he changed the the grip or the spin or or whatever on the the cutter and all of a sudden sudden the horizontal break he was getting about 4 inches of horizontal break in September it was more like 2 inches prior to that he was getting less rise more drop on the pitch and all of a sudden the whiff rate was up from 19% for the season to 26% while the expected wobo allow was just 256 those were both the best marks for any month so I understanding that it is a small sample size and that whatever went wrong with the cutter could go wrong again the fact that Corbin Burns was able to identify what went wrong fix it midseason and then ride that to a really good finish of the season I think bodess really well yes I would take him as a top 10 top five starting pitcher I would take him as a top four starting pitcher he is my number four starting pitcher I have Terk scoble like he doesn’t have I think even he’s probably not going to get the cutter back to 2021 levels certainly and so I don’t think he has the strike out upside Terk scoel and Paul SK have he’s I think Zack Wheeler has shown fewer limitations over the past couple of Seasons so I will also rank Zack Wheeler ahead of him I’ll take Corbin Burns over everyone else uh I’ve got him Ahad of just ahead of Logan Gilbert I’ve got him just ahead of Chris Sale Cole Reagan Garrett crochet I I am all in I I think he is one of the safest bets for 200 strikeouts I think he’s one of the safest bets for 15 wins um there’s not a lot to dislike about Corbin Burns based on this landing spot and the the Improvement he showed at the end of last season and despite the strikeouts being down the numbers have still been there the past couple years for Corbin Burns this past season a 292 er a 110 whip in 2023 it was a 339 ra and a 107 whip with that being said some of the underlying ER estimators don’t necessarily agree I mean this past season it was a a 355 FIP 375 Sierra the year before he was you know up in the high threes the low fours and some of those marks so I can see people starting to absolutely have concerns about some of those things and maybe they fade him as a top five starting pitcher as a result I’m closer to you I I don’t really want to use a top three round pick on a pitcher heading into 2025 but I did an nfbc draft a 12 team League where I got him in the fourth round and I think if you could do that his ADP right now is 36 so it’s not crazy to say you can get Corbin Burns at the three four turn even if you have concerns I think getting him at that point is totally fine value so I I might have also drafted him in the in the one League that I’m playing out yeah he was he was my first pitcher taken so yeah I’m I I think I’m gonna end up with him on on quite a few of my my teams I I did take him in the third round but it was it was a 15 Team league so it ended up being about the 40th pick so I’m with you like I don’t love a top 36 pick um I’d rather get you know my my two really good hitters on locked in before that but yeah if he’s gonna fall outside of the top 35 um I’m perfectly happy to to take Corbin Burns as my Ace I think he’s very much that anchor for your rotation who can you know not just give you really good ratios which I expect but the volume is going to be there in a way that you can’t really I think Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher in the top I don’t know maybe in the entire player pool that I really expect more volume from than Corbin Burns that that’s a big deal like I looked at his injury history and since he got to the majors I think he had a a shoulder injury like in 2018 way back before he was established he had a left oblique injury in 2020 that cost him a couple of starts he had Co in 2021 missed a couple of starts he hasn’t missed a start with an injury since 2020 though like that that’s a that’s a track record no pitcher can match at this point even Zack Wheeler had that was it a four shoulder injury at the beginning of the 20123 season um so yeah I I think he’s about as rock solid as a as a starting pitcher can get the nfbc ADP in December mentioned it’s 36.2 for burns he’s the sp6 off the board currently going behind behind Garrick crochet yeah I mean we talked about this on the most recent podcast I I can’t justify that price for crochet I I get it I think he’s awesome but I’d rather I I think you’re going to have a much easier time building a rotation out around Corbin Burns than gar crochet yep what about Corbin Burns versus Chris hail um look Chris haale was so good last year that I I do think there’s a certain to a certain extent he’s being a little over or under underrated um ended the season with back injury The Vibes are not great given how many injuries he’s had in the past but like we’ve talked a lot about how fluky those injuries were one of them was a bicycle accident um so I I do think there’s a decent argument to be made that I am undervaluing Chris Sale as my number six SP so I I can see that I’d still rather have Burns it’s just a a little bit safer yeah I agree there I would I currently Ry Corbin Burns ahead of Chris Hil I have Burns at sp5 I would take Logan Gilbert over him I that’s reasonable there’s a little bit more youth there yeah just it’s it’s a one spot difference in my in my overall rankings I I don’t have a strong opinion on that one yep agreed let’s take a quick break when we return we’ll talk about this a little bit more from just a baseball perspective updated Dbacks rotation what are the orios doing we’ll talk about that right after this [Music] welcome back in the dback signed Corin burns on a six-year $210 million deal their updated rotation burns up at the top followed by Zach Gallen Merill Kelly Eduardo Rodriguez Brandon fought with depth behind those guys they still have Jordan Montgomery under contract they have Ryan Nelson who flashed last season Gilbert Diaz who’s put up some big numbers in the minors as well I do wonder if maybe they flip some of this depth you can never have enough pitching Chris so I I don’t think they have to do that but if they want to you know I’ve I’ve seen uh on the Twitter streets people talking about Ryan Nelson for Spencer Tolson just kind of a flip of youngish players there uh what do you think about the the Dbacks updated rotation do they go out and maybe make another move trade from their pitching dip now well I I think the more likely one given their owners comments at the end of last season would be to try to salary dun Jordan Montgomery um how reasonable or realistic that is is a different question but it’s actually pretty funny that the Diamondbacks are the team that ends up signing Corbin Burns given their owners comments about Jordan Montgomery who is also a Scott Boris client as Corbin Burns is I thought that was an interesting wrinkle but yeah I I would expect another move you know I don’t know I guess DH is still a little bit of a hole for them although they are a team that does like to to mix and match in their lineup so I I don’t know if it’s the biggest need um short stop if they if they aren’t convinced Jordan Lawler’s ready but I think they’re they’re willing to wait for him and and just let Heraldo Pomo go so it’s not a team with a lot of obvious needs even though it’s not necessarily A team that has like star power all up and down the lineup um it’s a just a deep lineup it’s now a pretty deep rotation I mean if they don’t trade Montgomery is he your number six starter like that’s it’s it’s not a bad spot to be in um so I think they’ve done a really good job I think you know a lot of similarities to when they signed Zack ranki back uh you know what was it eight years ago nine years ago now um where kind of came out of nowhere but it it starts to make sense when it’s like yeah we want to take that next step they’ve been close the last couple of years um I love the signing for them I love the signing for Burns and yeah I think there’s probably another move or two coming but I don’t know exactly what it is uh and we can get to the Orioles I just don’t understand what the Orioles are doing yeah we’ll we’ll get to the Orioles in just a second uh you mentioned DH could be a possible upgrade for the Dbacks they currently have paven Smith pencil in there they have Blaze Alexander on their bench they still have Alec Thomas on the bench too so they you know they have some decent decent depth there Adrian do Castillo in the miners who who more than held his own obviously we we mentioned Jordan wall uh Jordan Lawler top you know I think he was Scott’s top shortstop Prospect yeah uh yeah so they’re um they’re in a good spot they’re in a good spot yeah I like what the Diamondbacks are doing right now they’re in a really good spot I think maybe the last piece that makes sense is a closer yeah actually you know they’re they come out and kind of talked about all right maybe we could bring in a a veteran guy they have Justin Martinez they have AJ Puck I think both guys are actually really interesting I took AJ Puck as like a real you know deep draft pick in in one of these draft and hold leagues is because he was amazing once he got traded to the Dbacks but I still think you know if they’re if they’re really trying to compete maybe they could trade from that depth to bring in a closer or sign one of these they were linked to Corbin or uh they were linked to Kirby Yates before this signing as well I wonder if that takes him off the board but the other thing that I I think works out for Corbin Burns he’s got an opt out after the second year so like if the next two years go well you know there’s an opportunity to to lock in a little more money long term for for him so I think Kudos all around to everyone except for Baltimore here well let’s talk about Baltimore Chris I know you have uh many thoughts on their current situation they traded for Corbin Burns last offseason which at the time kind of felt like a light return for the Milwaukee Brewers I mean I think Joey Ortiz could turn out to be a a fine play player DL Hall we haven’t really seen much from him but what are the Orioles doing Chris I don’t know because when they traded for cor corbon Burns last year it felt like this big turning point for them as an organization remember it was it came right after they uh the new ownership group bought the team it was a a sign that hey we’re going for it they had won 101 games the year before I believe but they clearly needed and and the thing after they traded for Corbin Burns was you looked at the rotation it was like well Corbin Burns Grayson Rodriguez and then John means we don’t know what we’re going to get from him turns out they didn’t get much from him uh and it just felt like the the return for burns was so light that like oh they’re primed to make another big trade for a starting pitcher and they just didn’t you know at the at the deadline they went and got Zack effin who is now potentially their opening day starter um it it’s not a good enough rotation and you know they’ve got this cheap Young core that I think they were 24th in baseball in payroll last year they’ve got this cheap young core that is the MV of the whole game right like they’ve got all these great players everywhere who are all cheap except adley Rutman is not a minimum salary player anymore he’s going to make real money for the first time this year they won zero playoff games in adley rachman’s three minimum salary Seasons like you had one of the biggest edges a team could possibly hope for right there and you didn’t take advantage of it and now they they let Corbin Burns walk for that they’ll get a compensation pick I guess good for you maybe that’ll help in seven years like I don’t I just don’t understand like where is the urgency here I I don’t like you’ve got the squad now your window is open and you’re gonna go into the season with Zack effin and Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kramer as your potential playoff rotation like compare them to the Yankees compare them to the Red Sox now like the the Orioles are falling behind they’re competition at a time when this should be their 2016 Cubs right like this should be their their we’re going to go out and get John Lester and we’re going to build a a rotation that can compete in the playoffs and they’re just not doing it I I don’t understand what the plan is they’re seemingly going to lose Corbin Burns and Anthony s santand there for nothing this off season except for compensation picks it’s I don’t understand what the goal is but it doesn’t appear to be win as many games and win a World Series and that is frustrating for a team that is clearly close enough to go out and make some big moves like what Kobe Mayo is just going to be at Triple A to start the season like we’re just gonna we’re gon to do that again we’re going to have like major league caliber players sitting at Triple A waiting for their chance when you have holes on the major league roster I’m I’m completely flumix by what the Orioles plan is I don’t know what the vision is here and it’s incredibly frustrating because this is a team that should be going all in right now for the next like the next five years should be the Orioles time to win our World Series and there just seems to be no sense of urgency it’s frustrating I think they have gunar Henderson under team control for another Four Seasons so that is the window right because yeah gunar gunar and adley you’ve got adley has three more years of Club control left because they called him up on opening day that year or close enough to opening day Gunner I think it’s four years after this or this year 2025 plus three more years so it’s like nothing exists outside of 2025 2026 2027 2028 like you can’t count on like what like you you can’t keep counting on developing players maybe Jackson holiday and Kobe Mayo extend the window a little further but like this is your chance this is the time to go for and it it’s so like it’s so frustrating to watch people complaining about the Dodgers signing people and like oh they’re deferring money to to get an edge and it’s like why aren’t the Oriol doing that you know like if like I just it’s it’s beyond frustrating to watch a team that is so obviously well positioned just spin their wheels and not take a chance when it’s right in front of them it’s like you can look at the Orioles rotation and see like oh what if Zack effin gets back to 2023 right what if Grayson Rodriguez like we we always talk about Grayson Rodriguez feels like he should be better you know the the underlying the the pitches are all all look really good and they’re just not leading to Ace results yet but what if he takes just that little step forward I can see that what if Trevor Rogers goes to drive line this offseason like he he’s talked about and gets that velocity back to 2021 levels and starts blowing guys away what if tomoki Sano has like a sha imanaga type rookie season as an soft tossing command lefty or he’s not a lefty but uh npb import like you can talk yourself into yeah a lot of things can go right for this team they’ve still got you know they’ve still won 91 games last year there’s there’s still a lot to like but what if everything goes right with our pitchers is not a plan because with pitchers things go wrong a lot more often than they go right like it’s more likely that two of those guys get hurt than that all four of them just have the best case scenario and it seems like they’re building a team for the best case scenarios and that’s not a strategy I I don’t know man Mike Elias did a great job putting this core together but he there just seems to be no sense of urgency to take the next step and that’s frustrating to watch yeah lots of wha ifs for the Orioles now I will say the or the offseason is not over and they it’s not linked to Dylan CE and Luis Castillo and those would be great pickups like Luis CIO kind of in the decline he’s not a Corbin Burns Dylan CE would absolutely be a great get that you know what would be even better though C burs and Dylan CE yeah which they there’s no reason they couldn’t do that again I think they were 24th in payroll last year like they haven’t spent any money since like 2019 or 2018 I all right we’ll move on I hear you let’s talk about the Dodgers they are bringing back to Oscar Hernandez on a three-year $66 million deal the rich get richer you’ve heard that before they also signed Blake Snell this off season say Oscar Hernandez 32 years old just had a career year with the Dodgers 272 batting average 33 home runs 99 RBI 12 seals 840 Ops the best se’s looked since that awesome 2021 with the Blue Jays updated Dodgers lineup Otani bets Freeman teoscar Hernandez Max Muny Will Smith Tommy Edmond Michael korto Gavin Lux I guess uh this is the clear best landing spot for teoscar Hernandez and Chris I think he’s currently undervalued his ADP is 73.5 as the 19th outfielder off the board yeah and I again we talk about a lot how in these very early drafts a lot of them are drafting holds and stuff like that so people tend to be cautious when it comes to injuries and playing time and Landing spots because there’s so much uncertainty I kind of always felt like teoscar was going back like all indications were that that’s what he wanted more than anything that this ended up being a very reasonable contract for him to come back you know second best corner outfielder on the market signs for three years 66 million that that’s a pretty good Landing uh that’s a pretty good get for the Dodgers so I I’ve been confused as to why his price has been so low all throughout the the process this off season um and yeah I I agree he is what’s his ADP like 75 73.5 19th outfielder yeah he’s my number 63 player number 17 outfielder so I I expect he’ll move up closer to where I have him um now that he’s signed and he should you know he was a top 10 outfielder last season the RBI the it’s kind of like pretty solid production across all five categories but only really a standout in home runs in RBI but like he won’t hurt you anywhere and he’ll help you in home runs in RBI he’s 32 so there is a chance that like yeah maybe there’s a drop off coming but we haven’t really seen it the one exception being that year in Seattle where he talked about not being able to see the ball we have the proof of concept that okay no that that was an issue and he’s much better away from Seattle which he has been throughout his career so I think there’s a a a ton to love about this landing spot and if the price ends up around 70 I I will be buying to Oscar Hernandez yeah I do agree I don’t think he’s Bulletproof by any means there’s there are some warning signs in the plate discipline there always have been he chases a lot zone contact is below average for tasar Hernandez and I think the most likely scenario is that he does take a little bit of a step back if you look at his steamer projection 257 30 home runs eight steals 780 Ops I think maybe the Ops could be a little bit higher but yeah I think the batting average is a little low yeah 800 Ops bat 260 30 homers 8 to 10 seals that seems like a pretty fair projection for askar Hernandez how much do you think the ADP moves up you mentioned you have him 63rd overall in your rankings can you see him climbing all the way up to Wyatt Langford and James Wood those are currently going between picks 50 and 55 do you think tasar Hernandez can get that high so I guess I’m just a little lower on James Wood and Wyatt Langford he’s in between them in my rankings but I have wood 62 and Langford 66 with t Oscar Hernandez 63 uh in the Roto rankings so I guess I’m just a little lower on those two guys but yeah I think that’s the range you know that that’s the right range of outfielders for him to be going around the Fallout for the rest of the Dodgers obviously not good news for Andy pahz early drafters like myself who were kind of interested in Andy pz has the prospect pedigree the barrel rate looked pretty good this past season uh but it looks like at best he’ll be a short side platoon bat uh to start the season obviously injuries can always happen and you know maybe and and pz works his way into more playing time and Dalton rushing Chris I mean I know there’s a lot of people who are interested in him for Fantasy because the bat is absolutely ready PR premium exit velocities in the miners it looks like if he was on any other team he can be like a top 12 top 15 catcher right away for Fantasy but the Dodgers have Will Smith they tried him out in the Outfield last season maybe that happens but now the Outfield is all filled up for the Dodgers too so I I I just don’t really know how going to happen for either pz or rushing without an injury yeah the and the problem is those guys are just Corner guys just like teoscar is and like you could see oh they could move mooki to second base and Tom Tommy Edmund to Short Stop and yeah you know there could be a role at Center dton rushing’s not gonna play center field I mean I don’t know maybe but it seems pretty unlikely he’s been he’s been just a corner guy Paz has played a little bit of center field um yeah but like that really limits it and you know conforto has missed some time in his career teoscar Hernandez is on the older side so it it’s not that hard to see you know some movement that creates an opportunity but as of opening day it doesn’t look like there’s an everyday role for rushing or um Pedra pahz and that’s uh that’s tough Andy sorry sorry uh anything else Pedra actually will play pretty regularly I think so for the St Louis Cardinal anything else on either deal on all fronts Corin Burns to the Dbacks Tay Oscar Hernandez back to the Dodgers uh the Orioles can’t be done you know whatever whatever it is I I don’t know what the what the next move is but they they need to be much more aggressive uh than they have been so far Dodgers seem pretty set right like maybe they bring in a another reliever but otherwise you know we’ll see on Roki Sasaki I I guess that’s the one big looming thing but yeah they they’ve got six viable starting options for opening day right now Clayton Kershaw will eventually sign with them so they will have seven whenever he’s healthy uh we’re we’re we’re looking at a dynasty here folks yes we are we’re gonna wrap there for Chris I am Frank thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify and we will be back again next week bye-bye


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