π Published on: 2024-11-27 20:29:39
β± Duration: 00:09:07 (547 seconds)
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Auburn vs Alabama College Football game preview for November 30th, 2024.
Auburn and #13 Alabama will continue their historic SEC rivalry when they take the field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is 8-3 and Auburn is 5-6 this season. Alabama is a double digit favorite by the NCAA odds, but will they be the winning College Football pick?
BetUS host Gary Segars, and expert handicappers Kyle Hunter and Parker Fleming preview the College Football game Auburn vs Alabama. They’ll go over the best value College Football odds available and betting trends and share their College Football expert predictions.
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π΅οΈββοΈ Transcript:
[Music] game number six and uh and we moved to Tuscaloosa Alabama where the Alabama Crimson tied off a disastrous loss at Oklahoma last week they host the Auburn Tigers in this year’s edition of The Iron Bowl at 3:30 p.m. eastern Time on ABC Alabama an 11-point favorite right now at bet us Auburn money line is plus 330 we got a total of 53 on this so that’s an implied score of Alabama 32 to2 Parker let’s start with you uh cuz I’m going to close this out on this one there’s there’s not really a playoff or SEC title on the line here that means this one gets to just be as hateful and toxic as the Iron Bowl is supposed to be Auburn playing for a bowl game here uh tell me what your number is on this one before I rant on this one I want to get an answer from both of you who needs this more kayin dor or Hugh freze who needs this game more boy that’s interesting before last week I would have said free like absolutely freeze right would you agree probably freeze yeah I think kayb D’Or is gonna get just a lot of scrutiny this off season and I think this would be a nice one to have in his back pocket uh certainly I know Gary you’ve been you’ve been tweeting some stats and it won’t steal your thunder about Alabama’s success or lack thereof outside of the saving era in uh you know in and beating Auburn but uh if you just look at this right on the numbers and forget it’s a rivalry game this seems entirely one-sided I have Alabama by almost 14 here which uh in a weird way makes me feel better you know being close to the line but decisively in One Direction as opposed to having Alabama by like 28 you know or something absolutely absurd here I feel more confident being a little closer there alurn 42nd overall the offense is only 43rd they’re 41st in EPA per drop back so like they’re fine they’re doing okay they’re a competent passing offense that makes a ton of mistakes and a ton of negative plays um I do think that that kind of bleeds into um Alabama and what they want to do on defense they’re fourth overall in EPA drop back Auburn’s rushing game is such a mystery to me they’re 70th an EPA per rush but they’re grading out so well on Miss tackle rating yards after contact and they’re just not running the ball perhaps enough which is a crazy thing for me to say but if you’re if your pass defense or pass offense is so volatile and so negatively skewed you you’d want to run the ball a little bit more especially with uh you know a quality player there at running back alurn does not generate quality possessions well they don’t finish them well 82nd and 102nd in those Drive metrics um and and they’re not doing themselves any favors at the margins they’re 90th in starting field position 112th in starting field position allowed of course some of that is less special teams and more so uh pton Thorn’s charity I think is the way I’ll say that diplomatically and and how he’s been uh just very very gracious to opposing teams there um yeah Alabama I think the issue for alurn here is that schematically they don’t provide a wrinkle and that’s really where Alabama’s defense has struggled when Alabama defense sees something new it is dear in headlights man they just are not able to adapt super well and um you know Oklahoma was able to just kind of say we’re pretty confident of what you’re going to do on offense and we’re pretty confident of how to stop that and uh and they they took care of business against against this Alabama offense and I think the more pressure you put on Jaylen milro to have to be in the pocket and make multiple reads the more you take away not only his confidence but the best part of his game which is keeping the defense guessing Alabama 30 third on those early Downs EPA uh per play but um I I think overall Alabama’s going to have to create quality possessions at a higher rate than they have all season they’re 61st at 46.1 in that quality possession rate they’re finishing them super well fifth in points per quality possession but Auburn’s defense has played that bend don’t break very very well 64th in rate allowed 22nd in points allowed so uh an interesting match up here I think the Alabama defense should be able to capitalize on this uh inconsistent alurn offense and I don’t know that Auburn’s defense is going to be able to do enough to bottle up milroe and kind of dictate the pace of play so my lean here is entirely uh Alabama um I I think I think I I’ll say more pizza money just because the Rivalry game aspect and Hugh FES for for all of everything Hugh frees can sit down one game and cook something up I think he’s still got aces up his sleeves and this would be a big game for him so I don’t want to Discount that at all yeah most certainly o Oklahoma ran basically the the Vanderbilt offense against Alabama last week they they ran the quarterback a lot Auburn is incredibly capable of doing that for sure uh looking at the trends Auburn covers against Alabama when they play in Jordan hair now this one’s in Briant Denny right so that’s that’s a little bit different Alabama is four and one against the spread in the last five meetings in Tuscaloosa the tide has won four straight meetings in this series against Auburn both teams are six and five against the spread this season Bama three and one against the spread in their last four at home Auburn two- one against the spread on the road one and two straight up Kyle over to you Bama big advantage in turnover margin and explosiveness uh in special teams penalties are all Auburn uh tell me what you’re feeling here I mean turnover margin stands out minus 11 plus 11 that that has a lot to do with somebody remember when somebody asked in the chat a couple weeks ago like what stat would we want to know before we place a bet and was like turnover margin definitely this game I want to know what the turnover margin is then I can tell you who’s going to cover I it’s gonna uh y That’s it’s GNA be that easy but also we don’t know what the turnover margin is going to be obviously so I think Alabama’s had quite a few IES of late with Lawson being the latest key injury I mean um they’re kind of adding up a bit and Auburn I mean hear me out here Jack Auburn’s not bad their their record isn’t good but on a down to- down basis I don’t think Auburn is actually a bad team um they’ve lost a lot of closer games because of turnovers if they could hold on to the football and I know that’s kind of been the theme of the season but I don’t think Auburn’s actually bad and I think jarquez Hunter is a good running back I think he’s underrated for sure um I think Auburn will run the football a lot in this game I think we’re going to see a really run heavy game which is why um I would lean under in this game I think there will be a lot of run and and uh the play uh the game clock moving pretty quickly um Alabama’s given up 4.07 yards per carry in SEC play Auburn has to run here I don’t trust pton Thorne um I don’t think they trust pton Thorne they have good wide receivers but Thorn is definitely a turnover waiting to happen um the the Auburn run defense is pretty good I think milro needs to create some big plays through the air here my number is exactly on the number for the side I would lean the under but Gary knows this Alabama team better than I do so I want to be quiet and see what he says about this one I watch a lot of Alabama football so let me let me rip for a minute I know it is incredibly hard to get that Oklahoma loss out of the head right uh it was senior night Oklahoma was coming off of a buy and it was the first buy with the new offensive coordinator so they had a chance to maybe install something a little different da d da the line for the iron B before week 13 was Bama minus 15 a half that flipped on Sunday to 11 and A2 so is it an overreaction or is it warranted right because obviously Auburn gets a big win at home also on senior night Etc uh the teams that have given Alabama problems Oklahoma South Carolina and Tennessee those are the defenses that have caused the most issues for Jaylen milro those teams are are all top 28 in Havoc they are top 28 in offensive line yards allowed and top 28 in stuff rate Auburn is number 84 in Havoc rate however they are number six in offensive line yards allowed number 16 in stuff rate so what is the profile look like if they can stop the run but they can’t get pressure on the quarterback right Marcel Reed for Texas A&M he threw for nearly 300 yards last week uh and he ran for another 60 plus like milro can have success here I think he can get to the outside I think he can get to the edge and run on this defense in this spot I lean Alabama I’m not going to lock it up because Kyle just mentioned the unknown what does this Bama defense look like without Q Robinson and and Deontay Lawson like the tied defense under wck is is full of ball Hawks big stat here of course we’ve talked about the turnovers Auburn number 115 in the country in takeaways or sorry giveaways per game Alabama is number two nationally in takeaways if you can tell us what the turnover margin looks like then yeah we we would make a lock on this but uh so no lock here Parker and I both lean Alabama but I will tell you I would hate to be kayin dbor or anybody on that staff if they lose this ball game I’ll say that [Music] [Music]
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