📅 Published on: 2024-12-05 17:46:47

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how’s it going Yankee fans welcome back to Fireside Yankees with Alex and Ryan so last night lots of news starting to break about the Yankees interest in pitching now of course we’ve talked about won stto we’ve talked about the pivots we’ve talked about the prospects but how about the pitching how about the rotation right now you got Garr Cole Carlos rodon Nester Cortez Marcus strowman and Luis he and Clark Schmidt as your primary guys but the Yankees have been interested in pitching this offseason Blake Snell obviously going to the Dodgers they had a good call with him and then you know a couple hours later he’s like y going to La good weather big payday obviously was a good fit for Snell they reportedly according to a couple of people I think um most importantly Michael Kay was the first one to break that uh Max freed was in connection and was actually having a really good meeting I think a 90minut zoom call with the Yankees last night or yesterday and Corbin Burns as well I think John Heyman came back and reported this morning so they had calls with Corbin Burns also Max freed and Freds apparently went really well um he loved the Yankees he loved what they wanted to do he loved the plan the strategy whatever it is they talked about he was all in for their game plan the question is Ryan is it a pivot or can they actually sustainably acquire a player like Fred and Juan stto we can talk about how they could get creative in this instance let’s talk about it you know in both instances whether you know it’s a pivot or in addition um but most importantly Nester Cortez three lefties in the rot doesn’t seem altogether that realistic so I do think that Nester Cortez could be a trade option for them if they go down this route uh so we’ll talk about that obviously but Ryan thoughts on freed we’ll start with him first and foremost since that’s kind of the that was the headliner of the whole narrative being pushed yesterday what do you like about him I think he a good fit for Yankee Stadium High ground ball rate you know generates lot lots of weak contact UM and he’s been relatively healthy over the last four years yeah so uh in regards to Max freed you know he’s one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in terms of of run prevention dating back to 2020 he has the lowest ER for any starting pitcher with at least 500 Innings pitched his ground ball rate which you mentioned is among the elite marks over that stretch as well but what separates him from other ground ball pitchers Alex is that he maintains above average strikeout to walk rates while having an above average ground ball rate over the last three years Max freed is tied with Hunter Brown among qualified starting pitchers for the highest strikeout to walk rate among pitchers with a ground ball rate of at least 15% that strikeout to walk rate was 17.6 % that’s above the Major League average fre isn’t going to overpower you but he’s not going to walk guys he’s going to strike out roughly like a little bit more than the average pitcher will he’ll strike out more batters than you would more batters the average pitcher does um and on top of all this you know he’s a very deep pitch mix he can throw seven different pitchers pitches a four seamer a curveball a change up a slider a gyro slider a sweeper uh and a a cutter as well um he’s got a very very excellent pitch mix he is one of those pitchers oh and a sinker as well I completely forgot he has three fast balls three breaking balls and a change up um he he’s one of those pitchers where his pitch variety his pitch diversity makes him so unpredictable he can throw pitches that move in all different ways we saw him pitch at Yankee Stadium earlier this year he was dominant he was able to Breeze through the Yankee lineup because again he just mixes up everything so freaking well and my number one concern with freed is the the fact that he’s had an i Elon in every season of his major league career outside of 2017 now granted some of them have been minor things a blister uh I I say a concussion as a minor thing only because it turned out to be a minor thing it was a freak accident it wasn’t something has to do with injury proness uh but I do have some concerns about you know having forearm issues and having uh you know hamstring strains that kind of stuff I do wonder how the Yankees choose to uh address this for agency as you mentioned it’s unclear whether this would be an alternative to signing Juan sto or something that’s in addition to signing juano but in either scenario you would imagine that the New York Yankees would uh you know be a able to uh you know figure out their payroll situation if they were to sign both they seem to be really aggressive they seem to be looking at all options um you know I think they’re doing their due diligence on freed to clarify I don’t think they’re favorites for him I’d say the Red Sox have a more desperate need for a Frontline starting pitcher I think will be a little more competitive for freed I think you can make the same argument for the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays who are both in the sweep Stakes for freed it’s very likely he ends up in the AL East the four teams SS the blue the uh excuse me the Rays so you expect to not really be in on a guy like like Max freed uh you know they are all in on him uh it makes sense again ground ball guy you talk about the fit in the AL East to fit in Yankee Stadium he makes all the sense in the world uh it’s not like he’s pitching behind an elite defense either the Atlanta Braves aren’t like the best defensive team in baseball they’re good but they’re not dominant and you know they’ve had I mean they’ve had some really poor Defenders had Jorge Solair playing right field I I wouldn’t consider Jorge Solair necessarily a good Defender I’d consider one of the worst Outfield defenders in the league Austin Riley you know consistently has been a below aage Defender uh you know they have great defense at first BAS because they’ve had Freddy Freeman at Matt Olen but you know at Short Stop it’s been inconsistent ever since they’ve lost Dan B Swanson at second base you know Azie alz isn’t a consistently great defender and isn’t consistently healthy so you know you’ve had some uh a lack of continuity there the Yankees would be getting a pitcher who I think is a number one if not a number two and whether he’s a number two or not is fully dependent on garri Cole’s performance if garri Cole’s A S Young caler pitcher next year yeah Fred’s a number two but if garri Cole’s really good he still might only be the second best pitcher in his own rotation if Max freed comes over to the Yankees uh that’s how good he is that’s how dominant freda’s been um and you know I I I’ll also like to add this Alex you know if you want to make a statement if you want to tell everyone that you’re serious about being New York Yankees that you want to go out and win the 2025 World Series that nothing’s going to come in between you and that title man bringing in Soto and freed I mean look I I know people are going to say SoDo and burns but I think it’s clear that burns going to get more money than Fred um you know I think SoDo and Fred if you move certain guys around maybe you move a controllable starter instead of Nester maybe do rock with the three Lefty situation move like a Schmid or a heel you get a Brendan Donovan that’s a cheap bat if you walk away with this offseason like I mean a SoDo free Donovan off season it’s kind of hard to complain no right like you walk away with and he probably still have enough money to go get some relievers bring back Tim Hill he could sign cheap I don’t really care what they do with the bullpen I don’t know about I don’t care if they like everyone was like sender Scott saying this like I just I kind of don’t care if they spend money or not there they just need to get people that are interesting because when they get interesting arms or bullpens fine but I don’t know I think it’s possible they get sod and freed I wouldn’t consider it likely I I’m not sourced on I’m just kind of spitballing here but it does kind of remind me of that judge rhon thing when they brought in judge and brought in rhon I know Ron’s contract hasn’t aged particularly well so there are going to be people who are say well that’s terrible we don’t want that uh but I think Freed’s a little bit of a different pitch in the sense that he’s not his injury opponent as Ordon and he’s also the best damage rentor in the league he had the lowest he has the lowest expected weight on basee average on contact in baseball since 2022 minimum a th pitches thrown so he’s a lead at damage prevention Alex I think he’s a perfect front line option for this team I I agree and looking through this rot um kind of objectively gar Cole coming off a y pitch 95 P Innings rather you know I I think we can expect gar Cole to rebound that’s an anomaly in a very large sample size of consistency for gar Cole so you know you’re not going to need as much Bullpen support um with some of the ideas I have in my mind this is a per best case scenario for what it’s worth like G Cole bounces back let’s say he pitches over 150 Innings less Bullpen you need for for his starts um or just in general because you know if you’re supplementing gar Cole with a lesser option you’re going to have to use more of your bullpen long term then you look at obviously you get Max freed he’s gonna give you six plus Innings a game on average um he pitch he’s pitched over 165 innings in three of his last four seasons I’m not really worried about his health his strikeouts are pretty much around his career average ground ball rates up everything looks pretty good from a statistical standpoint um and one of those Elite Lefty arms plays well in Yankee Stadium I think look I’m okay offloading like if you could offload Marcus strowman’s contract this year by packaging him with a prospect just get rid of him you can basically all you have to pay is $10 million for Max freed like theoretically speaking financially that is a move I would make and then you have strowman coming off the books in 2026 anyway so you’re just replacing that contract that already exists 2026 you’re just basically moving that money over to Freed long term and if you can manage to offload him this year you can free up that money now and I’m okay Pat packaging him with a prospect to get rid of him because this team is already chalk full of prospects Ryan like if you’re going to promote Caleb Durban you’re going to promote Jason Dominguez you already have Luis heel you have Austin Wells you have Anthony vulpi you you still got Ben rice waiting in the wings you have like you have all these young players you like how many teams have this much young Talent on their roster that have been homegrown not many not many teams have this amount of homegrown talent that are good talent maybe they do have the Homegrown talent but not all of them are freaking good um the Yankees have a lot of young Talent being ushered in and obviously playing prominent roles so you can afford it long term in addition to woto um obviously like you said you could trade a clarkman you could trade somebody if you want to go get like a cheaper about like a Brenan Donovan um you know maybe you want to trade one of those guys for a Nico horer if he was available cuz he’s only making $1 million you could play second base you could play Short Stop he could do all these things for you I mean obviously vulpi uh is a long-term Short Stop in this instance but and maybe there is a world where they would move vulpi to second base and Hornet a short stop where that defense is even better uh so you know the whole world becomes your oyster in this instance but FR is a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium I don’t know if this is a pivot um to WAN sto I I maybe it’s a part of a larger plan but if I’m the Yankee and I’m trying to court Juan sto and one of the biggest problems we had was our starting pitching in the World Series because rhon was bad in in most of his postseason starts not to say Fred has been like an excellent postseason performer but he has 67 Innings of postseason performance he had a g game six absolute gem against the Astros in the 2021 World Series like he has experience in big critical moments you can trust him you can lean on him um and also in like Do or Die situations like he would want freed over over Carlos rodon like objectively so let’s talk about this Ryan what if you did something like this what if you packaged Nester Cortez and to take Nester you also have to take strowman to a team that needed a couple starting pitchers um you know and maybe you got a bullpen piece in return you gave up strowman and you gave up Cortez you got a bullpen piece back you get freed and then you still have Luis Heil and Clark Schmidt and rhon so you have five men right there and maybe you just look at will Warren as your number six your supplement uh next season you know coming off some experience is that something that you would consider is that something that maybe could be realistic um that’s a great question you know it depends on what Marcus Showman’s value is now I will say in terms of Marcus Showman’s value has it trended upward or downward during free agency it’s something you do track right like you look at what players in his position group are getting and whether that negatively or positively impacts his value you say Kikuchi got a threee $63 million deal Blake Snell 5 years $185 million uh Matthew boy two years $29 million uh Frankie Monas two years $34 million I would say that bodess well for Marcus strowman who had a better erra than I believe I he had a better ra I believe than Mark Frankie montos I know that off the top of my head cuz Montas was 484 granted Montas is way more upside than strowman because he throws harder and has better stuff all that stuff uh but you know Matthew Boyd hasn’t completed a full season since 2019 Alex in 2019 I was the the start of 2019 I was a freshman in high school I’m a sophomore in college now so you know what I mean like it’s it’s a little bit uh it’s it’s been a while uh you know I’d also like to add in regards to you say Kikuchi you know this a guy who had a below average RA in the 2024 season I really coveted Kikuchi but you know it does indicate that teams perhaps um are willing to pay a lot more for starting pitching than people think and you know that obviously affects the max freed Market that’s why I say I don’t consider it likely for the Yankees to sign both Max Fred and juano I do believe there is a team that would say screw it here’s six years $180 million and at $30 million aav if the Ines already have juodo unless again they were able to move strowman I’d have a pretty hard time believing they’d be able to land Max freed so that’s the only reason why I say it’s not likely but again you know in the scenario where we could maybe move strowman hey in the same way that it bodess poorly for the Yankees chances of having the highest offer for Max fre if they sign Juan stto it does bode well for their chances to be able to move Marcus strowman because teams are going are seemingly paying a lot more money for pitching uh if you traded Nester and and strowman uh you know you’d probably have to eat some of the money uh for both these pitchers cuz they I believe Cortez projected to make around $7 million arbitration strowman is set to make $18 million towards a luxury tax uh that’s $25 million of money I don’t think a team is willing to pay $25 million for two starters of strowman’s caliber and nestor’s caliber neer’s pretty solid I don’t think Nester is a bad pitcher uh I think if you ate like 6 million 7 million of that and as you mentioned just get a reliever in return ask for nothing crazy you know you free up $18 million yeah you could get Max 3E with that money you know Max 3E let’s say cost you $30 million realistically payroll goes up 12 million you had 12 million let’s say 5050 million for Juan so at 62 million all right you’ve got $62 million of added payroll you’re hovering right under if I’m not mistaken that $300 million threshold uh you know that you could still you can do still do a little something maybe bring in a Carl Santana whatever it may be um you know the Yankees have to be cognizant of the fact that their payroll is going to be very high this season if they sign Juan stto if they want to compete in 2025 they have to run a pretty high payroll it’s going to be a couple of years until they can start shaving off some of that money uh you know obviously Le mayu’s money comes off the books after 2026 hicks’s money comes off the books after 2025 uh let me read in let me just want to double check some of the money coming off the book as well um you would have uh you have obviously the player option for strowman if you don’t move him you know he comes off the books uh you have to pay Weaver which is a little bit of a concern but you know I’m fine with that uh you can move arbitration eligible players you still have a lot of cheap players uh you know just moving having I mean honestly having what $25 million come off your payroll I mean in terms of committing money I think they’re at like 146 for 2025 or 2026 I mean it it it my point is a lot of these contracts are coming off Stanton comes off the books after 2027 that’s $25 million Yankees can open up rodon comes off the books uh a year after that Cole comes off the books a year after that because the Yankees didn’t pick up that fifth year so the next three to four years Yankees could free up I mean that’s a hundred million basically right there right in terms of hicks L Mayu I mean that’s a lot of money so sign SoDo sign freed he can make it work we’ll see we’ll see it it’s going to take a lot of creativity but listen the Yankees I mean they made it to a World Series with what they had last year if they really put in the work this offseason they bring back stto they get creative offload strowman’s contract you know manag to get a freed manag to get a walker or even go get a sort like if you walked away with this offseason Ryan with SoDo freed and Carlos Santana would you be happy i’ I’d be pretty happy with that you have a true number two Ace that could be a supplement inurance insurance policy 30 years old to garri Cole if anything happens to him you have a really good player to step in and fill the fill the Gap there um we expect Luis Hil to take steps forward we expect clarkman to rebound he was excellent before the injury that knocked him out for like two months um I do think this team is positioned quite nicely to if you get if Brian Cashman just puts the cards in you bring back soda you get creative you do what you got to do this team will be right back in the World Series next year right they will be right back there and they will be with the Dodgers competing at the highest level and maybe they have their number that week you know that’s all it takes sometimes better defense better base running uh uh that number two starter in Max fed who has postseason experience he’s been to a World Series like those things matter in the long term yes you may have to lean on on some Youth and Caleb Durban or Jason Dominguez but the truth is you have the trade deadline too you still have a really strong Prospect pool you don’t you’re not we’re not talking about trading like a ton of prospects right now you could still trade out of that Prospect pool Chase Hampton will Warren Clayton beer um Rafael Flores you know Carlos gra you’ve mentioned many times to me on potential mock trades like there’s a lot of talent there uh that the Yankees like even rodri Aras players teams always love young Short Stops and young infielders so you know this team has a ton of young Talent Ben rice is another one you could throw into the Mi you want to Spencer Jones they have talent they could treat out of their Prospect pool to reinforce specific positions at the deadline next year so you spend the money you offload some big contracts right now if you possibly can we’ve already seen I think Mark Feinstein reported that strowman’s not he does not think that strowman is in the Yankees plans next season if that’s the case why would he be here next season he will probably be traded if they do not have plans for him unless they see him as a competent like sixth option but I don’t see how he is a piece in this rotation if they add another arm if they add another arm someone’s getting traded someone’s getting moved um it’s just a matter of who and why and for what so I don’t know right now I think it’s kind of interesting but I’ll ask you this Ryan would you prefer Corbin Burns at $36 million at the same age as Max freed or Max Freed at 26 million maybe similar length six sevene contract you know who are you going with in this instance you know I know Burns strikeouts have been down obviously Freed’s strikeouts have been pretty pretty average hovering around his career averages um you know ground ball R is still great you know both have been pretty healthy over the last couple Seasons I think uh freed had 3.4 War last year and burns had 3.7 so similar values but $10 million less for freed I think I’d probably lean in that direction Yankees need an elite Lefty starter who has who generates a ton of ground balls in Yankee Stadium I think I’d lean in that direction just because of the price uh but what’s the better player yeah I mean I think Corbin Burns is a better pitcher than Max freed the reason I say that is because he’s going to rack up more Innings and look you know we’re talking about a uh so over the again we’re going to use over the last three seasons just because I know uh Burns was a lot better in 21 and 22 than he was uh in 2022 or 23 or 24 so that’s unfair to like lump that in uh you know that’s a 75 ER minus which is a 308 ra the only reason I’m using adjusted ER is because these two pitchers did not pitch in the same team team so they have different home ballparks you want to adjust for different home ball par home ballparks uh and make sure that you are factoring that in uh my Max freed Fang graphs page was not loading but now it is I apologize uh he had a 67 ra minus and a uh 2.80 ER so there is a run prevention gap between Burns and freed I don’t want to deny that uh but you’re also getting a lot more Innings 22 202 193. 2 194. one compared to 174.72 .2 185. one so you you’re talking like 20 more Innings and you know what 20 more Innings of slightly worse ball like I I’ll take it right I’ll take the the higher volume uh the guy who can pitch six seven Innings because that helps your Bullpen um and you know I think burn there’s a reason why Corbin Burn’s GNA get more money than than Max freed I think that’s the best way to put it right like there’s there’s a reason why one player will be more expensive than the other and it’s because one player is better than the other Burns is also a year younger that plays a role into this for me Burns is going to be his age dir season freed in his age 31 season Burns does not have an extensive injury history freed does uh and the last thing I’d like to not is I think you know yes the stuff plus scores have gone down every single year from 2021 to 2024 by by an amount and so has the strikeout rates and and I don’t want to deny that I don’t want to you know be ignorant of that fact uh but something I would like to mention is that towards the end of the season Burns adjusted his cutter and he started throwing more of a sweeping slider um and over his last five starts his stuff plus shot up um to 133 the cutter Stuff Plus drop jumped up to 147 the slider Stuff Plus score jumped up to 140 over those five starts he had a 1.2 ER he struck out 27.7% of batters faced he was excellent and then he fed that up with an elite start in the postseason where in that wild card game he was utterly dominant I believe he allowed one run across eight Innings pitched a ridiculously Good Start against the Royals team who we know was very Scrappy I think that’s why he didn’t strike out that many batters that day that team doesn’t really strike out we we we’ve seen that um he he in my opinion is is one of the five six seven best starting pitchers in baseball Freed’s in like that top 10 to 15 range to me Burns feel the best way to put it is I fear that Max freed is the Steven strawberg to Corbin Burns is Garrett Cole if that makes sense Steven strawberg was the second best pitcher on that free agent Market very extensive injury history very good pitcher though uh and then we all know how that contract went Garrett Cole much better pitcher than Corbin Burns was at the time of hitting free agency but the more durable option the more expensive option the perceived o he’s too expensive maybe we shouldn’t out and get him and guess who’s been the best investment Garrett Cole I often times look at the best player on the market and say there’s a reason they’re going to get paid more and people Overlook that right it’s kind of like when people go spread the wealth why do you want to pay juano that much money because he’ll be the best investment of that group the same way Bryce Harper was the best investment of his free agent class the same way Manny Machado is probably the second best investment of his free agent class if you look at the long-term or long range planning every single owner who didn’t pay Bryce if every owner could see the production that Bryce Harper has provided the Philadelphia Phillies and look and reup their offer go back in time and change something every single owner would go back and offer him 360 390 $400 million for 13 years ensure that they have him on his team I’d argue for Garrett Cole if the New York Yankees knew the production that they were going to get from Garrett Cole over those nine years or the Dodgers the Angels did I think the Dodgers the Angels would have upu their bids I think the Yankees would have gone to 330 340 million that’s how good these kinds of players can be and so far Alex $40 million a year for Aaron judge is it as bad as it was like oh that’s really expensive that’s rich for my blood there are some wouldn’t have paid him $360 million for 9 years and I’d say it’s a looks pretty freaking good right now he looks much better than a $40 million year player how about sh sh oh it’s $700 million all 447 million a year towards luxury tax he’s not that good Yamoto right we’re like oh well there’s you can always spread the wealth of Yamoto I would argue that Yamoto will be the best investment any play any team makes in the free agent class on the pitching side of things he’s that good so the top guys are always the best guys I’m not saying they always age the best but if you look at who are the guys look back on and go damn it we should have gotten that guy it’s always the best guy on the market it’s never that I don’t know that two-year $30 million contract those guys come and go generational Stars they’re forever I don’t think Burn’s generational per se but I do think he’s a considerable Gap there’s a there’s a gap between him and Fred and there’s a reason why they’re going to be paid accordingly yeah I mean there’s a reason that the projected contract is 10 million less per season for freed um I just think for the Yankees situation at the moment they have to go for for that op obviously like just financially they can’t do it I mean they could but like let’s just be realistic Kyle St is not going to do it um but I do think having a great Lefty number two that’s what they wanted in rhon they whiffed massively on that deal like they they shot themselves in the foot and not because we didn’t think rodon was going to be good but for some reason he just I mean the injuries in his first year last year he pitched a lot of innings just he just wasn’t efficient his fast balls just lost a lot of Life uh slider still seems to have life but he he’s very emotional um Carlos rhon I think that being a Yankee like sometimes that doesn’t play well because fans get on you they boo you they criticize you and that just comes with being a New York media market player and sometimes I think that gets in his head I mean we saw him how excited he was and he was striking out guys left and right against Cleveland and then it got shot in the foot and and he beat himself up because he he he’s a emotional roller coaster uh during games is his worst enemy because he’s super confident in a second he gets a hit something happens there an error on defense a double in the left field line and he falls apart and it’s like okay that mental fortitude sometimes is compromised um so maybe he can turn that thing around maybe it would be nice it’d be good for him to fin to follow the gar Cole method every pitch strikeout you can get hyped in a big moment but forget about it Amnesia like you got to go right back up there and act like the game has just started like everything every pitch every single at bat is its own individual battle and you got to move through that and you know sometimes that comprises of a much more successful outing than just one bat bat getting excited whether it’s a second third fourth inning you got to ride into the whole the whole outing like knowing you’re going to dominate but not get shook if something happens so you know that’s what separates good from great play pitchers that can bounce back from um maybe inconsistent inning maybe they work themselves out of trouble whatever it might be rhodon had a lot of trouble with that the last year and in 2023 as well so you know if the Yankees do get free they trade Nester or whatever get rid of another Lefty they’re going to be much better off obviously um I am a little bit concerned about the bullpen I think it would be great to bring back Tommy kanley on a relatively cheap deal he was extremely efficient last year you bring back kley bring back Tim Hill you can find I mean Luke Weaver’s projected to be your your uh primary uh closer next year at this moment Klay Holmes obviously I he blew a lot of saves he also had a lot of saves but listen like you can make up those saves to other people you can make up those saves in other ways um it’s the blown saves that are not good very problematic so the Yanke has got to fix that but you know just want to give you guys a little bit of insight into where we’re thinking um when it comes to Burns freed obviously Burns’s a lot more unrealistic but I think that freed is a possibility if the Yankees get creative and offload Marcus strowman I think that’s the only way they can make this work in addition to signing W SoDo is if they get rid of strowman’s contract they could justify freed in addition but if they don’t get rid of strowman’s contract I don’t see how they can do both and make a couple other improvements so I think that we will probably wait to see what happens to Soto and then we’ll see uh how aggressive they are in the in the immediate aftermath of that decision so hopefully they get stto and they can make a couple decisions quick quickly um you know after that but always happy to give you guys some insight into what’s going on and the rumors at the moment hope you guys enjoyed the episode make sure to like And subscribe as always and we’ll catch you guys on the next fire side Yankees episode [Music]

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