📅 Published on: 2024-12-03 20:24:09

⏱ Duration: 00:09:21 (561 seconds)

👀 Views: 8827 | 👍 Likes: 137

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UNLV vs Boise State College Football game preview for December 6th, 2024.

The Mountain West championship will be decided when #22 UNLV faces #11 Boise State on Friday night in Boise. UNLV is 10-2 and Boise State is 11-1 this season. Boise State is a small favorite by the NCAA odds, but will they be the winning College Football pick?

BetUS host Gary Segars, and expert handicappers Kyle Hunter and Parker Fleming preview the College Football game UNLV vs Boise State. They’ll go over the best value College Football odds available and betting trends and share their College Football expert predictions.

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🕵️‍♂️ Transcript:

[Music] and uh we’re going to stay on Friday night and this is the biggest game of Friday night it happens out west as the UNLV Rebels they travel to the blue Turf they’re going to take on the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West championship game 8:00 p.m. eastern time on Fox it’s Fox’s only Conference Championship game I just realized that big ttin on CBS this week or yeah yeah yeah uh so yeah boy e favored by four and a half at home of course uh the BET US money line here unov plus 163 we got a total of 58 on this that’s an implied score around 31 to 27 Parker let’s start with you I’m looking at these numbers Boise is number 14 in net points per Drive UNLV is number 15 I mean this is a seriously close matchup uh what’s your number on this what do you have on this is is this I I saw a tweet I don’t know if 100% believe this is this the biggest G5 game we’ve ever seen um when are present presumably has a path to compete for National Championship I think this is absolutely up there in the echelon of TCU Boise 2011 Boise State Nevada 20 uh 2010 we’re looking at two teams with uh huge National implications here really really great to see will be high stakes Boise obviously got them in the first go round a really really beefy drive there at the end to just put the game Out Of Reach um I have this as Boise State by about five here I think the home field advantage is significant we saw um unlv’s HJ Malik Williams saying he didn’t know where Boise was on the map potentially giving some bullets on board material there to the Broncos and uh you know it’s h go go to Salt Lake and just go north H that’s that’s where it is up there and uh I I I think this will be a really really fun matchup I’m interested to see how we get um kind of with the Dual threat here we’ve seen teams look a little bit different uh unlv’s pass rate has gotten a little higher they still are very very runhe heavy Boise state has balanced out a ton just because opponents are putting nine in the box and Aston jamy can run get them run against them but it’s criminal not to use mads and cam camper and say hey if you’re going to put nine in the Box we’re gonna we’re going to throw on you so that stress test of you and all these defense is really interesting here given that Boise has evolved a little bit over the season but I imagine with Heisman Stakes on the line we’re going to see Ashton jinty do all that he can to put up numbers and win this game and they want him to win this game for him you know these defense up to 14th in EPA per Rush they’re only 13th in Echo rate allowed but they are 92nd in points per quality possession that’s the big difference there because Boise does not generate quality possessions on an elite level they’re good they’re 23rd but they’re seventh in finishing those drives so when they get those quality possessions they rely on the big man they find cim camper in space they do finish those drives really well I think that’s going to be the deciding factor because unlv’s offense is kind of the the inverse they put Ricky White in there to block punts they create Havoc they get turnovers and they start drives really really well they do not finish them 63rd in in points per drive so that’s the deciding factor here is can unlb finish drives better than they have all season can Boise State generate drives uh more than they have all season plus that run pass split this is going to be a great game um my my lean here would actually be a little bit uh to quote Gary a little bit overy uh just because I do think these offenses uh have seen these defenses before there’s a lot on the table they’re going to pull out all the stops but uh no play for me gonna watch this one lock in and and be really interested to see how this game script plays out yeah this is by the way to answer your question maybe the 2021 Cincy versus Houston game to get into the four team playoff um but did Houston have Stakes wasn’t that just that’s what I was trying to think of I guess that’s true of the Nevada game as well so so 2011 TCU boy is the one that stands out where the winner stands to gain regardless the other two it feels like those were just spoilers right like Cincy had to win to get in Houston wouldn’t have gotten in if they won Nevada wouldn’t have gone anywhere Boise State just would have gone on so that’s that’s my only thing there but that was another big one I forgot too that was a pretty that was a pretty fun game yeah that that was definitely I mean it was 14 to 10 at the end of the first quarter it was 14 to 13 at halftime and since he just rolled in the second half uh but Houston at the time they were 11 and one going into that game and they were ranked in the top 20 if I’m not mistaken so uh yeah that’s this is a huge game huge game Boise did win the earlier meeting this year 29 to 24 in Vegas as a 4o favorite of course now they’re at home they’re only a four and a half Point favorite it’s kind of kind of strange in the Mountain West championship game last year Boise won 44 to 20 as a two-point favorite uh Boise right now one and three against the spread in the last four UNLV has covered two straight uh but that’s after they failed to cover in five of the previous six uh but there the chat is already in on this UNLV 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 as a dog since 2022 I’ve got Boise favored by almost nine points in both of my models uh but when you start looking at the matchup unova’s rushing Defense number 18 and rushing success allowed they’re number 20 and stuff rate number 17 and offensive line yards allowed it’s going to be harder for jinty to get going here luckily for Boise madx Matson he he’s been rolling uh Broncos are number 11 in PPA per pass this season they’re number 31 in QB rating Kyle explain this this line to me Boise was a four-point favorite on the road at unov a few weeks ago they covered by a point now they’re at home this thing opened three and a half even though they haven’t lost since that game you’d figure with HomeField they’d be bigger favorites than this what what are you seeing here I think Boise has not played their football of late and I think that’s kind of some recent results uh baked into there but I do think three and a half was kind of ridiculous I mean four and a half or five would have made some sense but three and a half was not enough um my line is five on this one so um I think UNLV has played a pretty tough schedule and actually on a yards per playay basis they’ve been slightly better than Boise mainly because of recent games Boise seems as if they’ve kind of played down to competition now Boise kind of looked like a team that was coasting down the stretch did they um kind of just Coast on purpose it’s possible you know might it might not have showed the good plays or or done everything they could um can they flip the switch here um they’re going to need to because I think UNLV is a really quality team in fact in the first meeting Boise I think Boise was a little bit fortunate to win that game if you go back and look at the stats yeah they were plus plus one turnover margin they went four for four on fourth down they had a 133% success rate on passing Downs so uh Genty was fantastic uh but I think they were pretty fortunate to win now UNLV goes to Boise it doesn’t look like any crazy weather here I saw Bobby saying in the chat that he went to a Boise game back in 2001 where it was 20 degrees and snowy and windy none of that expected here a little chilly upper 30s but December and Boise upper 30 is pretty good that’s not bad you can’t complain about that um Boise is Fifth and defensive Havoc rate UNLV is 65th and Havoc alloud unov has to keep Boise’s um defensive front out of the back field I think that’s the a key watch key matchup to watch uh Boise is plus 34 in sack margin this year that’s almost unheard of plus 34 is insane um I think their secondary is the biggest weakness um Boise’s 132nd tackling grade at PFF that kind of surprised me when I saw that um I I figured they wouldn’t be great but 132nd seems pretty low Ashton jent is a beast he’s going to get his no matter what I think Boise goes even more run heavy than normal here um good match up because UNLV is 20th in defensive line yards and I think it’s a good point that Parker pointed out and even uh somebody in the chat said Boise’s really good at finishing drives UNLV is not really good at finishing drives um if UNLV is settling for field goals here I think they’re going to be in trouble because Boise’s going to be able to punch it in is my guess uh must CV I think I might even if I had to bet this one I would probably go against my number just slightly and take uh UNLV plus the points because I think this feels like a really close game yeah that’s obviously no locks on this one for us I think that’s the direction that I would go is is I would lean you in LV but I mean how how do you bet against Boise on the blue Turf against the like with the team that they’ve already shown that they can beat multiple times like it’s I don’t know it’s rough Kenneth Collins in the chat said a couple of bad defensive penalties by Vegas in the game earlier this year and yeah absolutely uh top 20 Louisiana said UNLV 6 and0 on the road yeah I mean this is going to be a fantastic football game and we mentioned it for the last game Barry odm maybe auditioning a little bit getting some traction I heard his name for the West Virginia job it’s that motivation factor I think we can’t deny either most certainly yeah I think uh I think the players it and of course Brennan Marian has been brought up for uh for the Toledo job as well so like there’s there’s a lot going on here a lot of stuff behind the scenes with this one [Music] [Music] [Music]

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