📅 Published on: 2024-11-27 06:12:03
⏱ Duration: 01:00:07 (3607 seconds)
👀 Views: 940 | 👍 Likes: 72
📝 Video Description:
Welcome to the Thanksgiving Week edition of the Sharp Football Show with Warren Sharp!
In this episode, Warren analyzes the most important takeaways from Week 12 in the NFL and previews Week 13 to share the biggest keys you need to factor into your handicapping of this week’s matchups.
The Sharp Football Show is a fast-moving, entertaining TV show filled with on-point takes about the most important NFL storylines, trends and data. Get it first on the Sharp Football Analysis YouTube channel every Tuesday and Friday at 12pm ET/9am PT!
The Brand New Sharp Football Show! We’ll show you what you need to know!
Topics:
Intro: 00:00
Lamar Jackson passing vs 2-high: 5:55
Steelers truly are Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite: 15:31
John Mara wanted Saquon Barkley to stay… but not for the right reason: 17:56
Rushing Yards Over Expectation: 23:38
Bears weak effort to block game-winning field goal: 31:04
Baker Mayfield is Thriving, Cleveland Browns are Dying: 33:15
Strength of Schedule, last six weeks and Week 13: 41:16
Be sure to subscribe to the Sharp Football Analysis YouTube Channel and set notifications for the Sharp Football Show so you never miss an episode.
BLACK FRIDAY SALE! Right now you can get a massive 73% discount on everything Sharp Football Analysis offers with code SHOW73! Weekly, Monthly & Season-long packages are available for NFL & College Football betting plus in-season fantasy football. Go to Sharp.Football to find the package right for you!
Follow Us On X:
Warren Sharp: https://x.com/SharpFootball
Sharp Football Analysis: https://twitter.com/SharpFBAnalysis
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sharpfbanalysis/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sharpfbanalysis
#NFLNews #NFLRecap #NFLPicks
🎙 Channel: Warren Sharp
🌍 Channel Country:
📂 Tags:
nfl news,nfl picks,nfl recap,nfl analysis,nfl news today,nfl betting,warren sharp,sharp football show,nfl strength of schedule,nfl,nfl betting tips,nfl predictions,nfl odds,nfl coaching,football,football betting,nfl reaction,nfl week 13,lamar jackson,saquon barkley,expert nfl picks,nfl futures,baker mayfield,ravens steelers,john mara saquon barkley hard knocks,football betting trends,eagles ravens,harbowl,ravens chargers,nfl prop bets
🕵️♂️ Transcript:
[Music] welcome to the Thanksgiving week edition of the sharp football show so happy you guys could join us here on a beautiful glorious Tuesday just two days before before we’ve got the best day of the year in my opinion uh where you’ve got food football and family all day long uh the games some of them could be a little bit better uh but that that’s what some of the booze is for right that’s what some of the food is for uh that’s what some of the uh entertaining things that you can do with some of your family members uh while the games are going on if you’re not queued in studying them consistently and hopefully we’ve got some of these games that are close the first game obviously we’ve got the Chicago Bears taking on the Detroit Lions that game has a large 10-point spread which did see a little bit of Chicago Bears money come in earlier today uh and then the other two games you know say what you will about the quality of of team but the point spreads are relatively close so hopefully we have a couple of good entertaining games to enjoy on Thanksgiving while we’re enjoying the food and the family but uh make sure that you guys are over on you YouTube if you want to contribute to the chat uh we’ve got Exile who’s a who’s a good loyal uh follower and commenter over there at the sharp football show go to search sharp football analysis on YouTube and you can comment ask questions as well this episode um if you guys at all are in the sports betting space if you’re in the uh probably the fantasy space and you’re actually a a player a better somebody who has a lot at stake in um some of these things on a week- toe basis um it’s a busy week it’s a very busy week because you’re trying to jam things in there’s three games on a Thursday normally there’s only one and it’s in the evening we’ve got three games all throughout the day and generally speaking most people are spending time with family on Thursday so you’re not really handicapping a Sunday game at 3 pm on a Thanksgiving Day um so you’re working around the clock now between now and and and Wednesday night early Thursday morning um and so that means that everything is jammed up everything’s crammed in there so as a result this show is going to be pretty succinct pretty straightforward I’m going to share a few key things that I want to get across to you guys as it related to what we saw in week 12 what I’m looking ahead to in week 13 we’re going to hit on strength of schedule we’re going to hit on a few other topics uh we don’t have a guest because I want to jam through this and we’re going to um get to all your questions throughout the show so if you have any questions about what we saw in week 12 or what we’re going to be seeing here potentially in week 13 feel free to throw them up into the chat uh ATL baseball you must be a good follower you probably were watching me when I was over there on ringer uh with Simmons and house and and and solak and that whole gang that used to be over there we did our PI Edition um and a couple years ago we were pretty regular with doing that um leading up to Thanksgiving last year I believe we did it between Thanksgiving and Christmas and that’s what I’m planning on doing this year I’m planning on um bringing in Joe house and doing a pie Edition where I will be sitting here probably with this table right back here and we’ll have three different pies laid out there and we’ll be going through tasting the pies talking about some of the games that are upcoming uh we may have to change up the uh the recording schedule of when we’re doing that but uh we will be looking to do a pie Edition and I know a lot of people used to love that and I did too because trust me um most of the pies that we get are pretty damn Delicious uh and it’s not just for those of you that are new we aren’t just reviewing you know like uh pumpkin pies and apple pies and things of that nature we’re talking about some of the Savory pies the the meat-based pies um the the some of some of the spicier pies uh some of the heartier pies that you would serve with dinner as well as some of the dessert it item so um we will see if we can make that happen for you guys this year yeah Joseph the P episode were absolutely great um 17 Don Hull uh with the with the over in the Eagles Ravens game so that game if you are a subscriber uh and we’re going to get to something momentarily but if you are a subscriber to the service that game’s ending was absolutely intense because we were sitting on um a 2- 0 record heading into that final drive where we needed a couple things to go right we were so close on so many different bets that we needed to go right and we ended up uh every everything fell our way one of the you know it’s it’s just a special season for us here we’ve gotten screwed on some of these before but um part of the reason why we are having the season that we are is we’re we’re just on fire with some of uh the things that we need to go our way so we’ll hope that that continues um and we’ll talk a little bit more about that uh moment but first let’s Dive Right into our first topic here guys uh Matt why don’t you bring it up all right so I keep refreshing uh True Media to try to find the charting data for last night’s game because what I want to talk to you guys about is Lamar Jackson and you know on this show last week I was talking about the fact that I thought we were going to see a better performance out of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense here against the LA Chargers even though the Chargers defense is you know uh from a statistical perspective looks really strong even though the Baltimore Ravens really struggled against the Pittsburgh Steelers I was expecting because of the defensive stylings of the LA Charters defense and the jux depos of that versus what the Pittsburgh Steelers did against Lamar Jackson that we were going to see a stronger offensive performance from the Baltimore Ravens last night and lo and behold that’s what we ended up seeing now Lamar Jackson started off very rough uh sometimes Derk Henry they hand the ball off to derck Henry uh at the beginning of the game the first play of the game the second play of the game he’s not breaking those you know 15 to 25 to 35 yard runs right out the gate you know he’s not it’s not play one that he’s breaking those and so oftentimes Lamar gets set up behind the sticks very beginning of the game and in certain cases especially when he’s on the road playing a semi-competent defense he does he doesn’t settle into the game right away and so you saw like I did several pass attempts from Lamar where he was a air mailing them it did not look like he was stepping into the Thro it looked like the rush was bothering a little bit on the predictable passing situations and he wasn’t getting those passes driven low and they were sailing over his receivers heads and so I think he missed like he was one of four to start the game over the Ravens first couple of drives and most of those passing attempts were on late Downs rather than first down they were set up behind the sticks in more obvious passing situations Matt why don’t you throw up that graphic so this is what Lamar Jackson did obviously like I said I think he started out the game one of four and then he came on just guns blazing and there there was a pass if you look so if you’re not familiar with these charts uh the green circles are completions the white circles are incompletions if you see a blue that means that it was a touchdown pass um and obviously red is interceptions Lamar did not throw any interceptions um Lamar Jackson is 22 touchdowns zero interceptions on nine career Monday Night Football games and he’s seven and two in those games and in this game one of those white dots that’s in the far back left there near the plus 40 yards down the field that went right through Rashard Batman’s hands I believe that was a that was a touchdown now underneath he could have thrown it to Z flowers who was probably 23 yards down the field streaking wide open but Lamar went for the Home Run shot dropped the ball in perfectly right into the basket for Z flowers there was a defender on him but it went right through his hands that one was dropped by the receiver he did make up for it though catching that one that was what 44 yards down the field so Lamar had overall aside from those first couple of passes and look at his accuracy look at what they were doing um they had no problem moving the football and that’s what was kind of puzzling to me um and and you can bring this graphic down now Matt that was kind of puzzling to me as it relates to last night’s game is you know the first two drives of that game the Ravens punted right Derrick Henry stopped on first down second and nine second and 10 Lamar Jackson behind the sticks not accurate throws an incompletion punt after that the Ravens had five drives and they went like touchdown touchdown field goal touchdown touchdown they were moving the football they could not be stopped by the LA Chargers defense and I did not understand down 14 points for the Chargers why they decide on a third and like 14 or 17 something like that to throw a deep bomb down towards the end zone which was like a 35 to 40 yard shot as opposed to try to pick up enough yardage to because the defense is not going to be playing the defense is going to be playing to the stick there’s underneath stuff that you could get on a third and 16 a third and 17 that you could set up a fourth and manageable instead there’s six minutes left in the game they’re down by 14 points they throw a deep bomb and then they punt it to to me the game is over right there now I know some people in the comments when I posted the Tweet about and it’s not tweet when I xed the the the post on um Z on uh on uh a guy from uh the Chargers the receiver Quinton Johnston Quinton Johnston that pass that was right over the middle when he was running the crossing route and just went right through his fingers that probably could have been like a 6 5 yard touchdown um people are saying that that was when the game was over and I I can’t fault you for that I mean that was a huge drop that could have made a massive difference in this one once again we saw some weird officiating calls uh some of the things that I didn’t necessarily agree with some of these onfield reviews that were bizarre they were picking up some flags that I thought could have stayed down on the field um I didn’t really quite understand the officiating in this game um exile that Phantom leg kick you’re right on that first drive was massive the Ravens were going to that was a first down I think they had moved the ball down to the 35 or 36 yard line of the Chargers so they were going to probably be getting points off of that drive and that was a 15 yard penalty where there was basically no forceable contact at all I saw some sticklers coming into the mentions oh maybe technically speaking by the rules this refs are never calling that nobody nobody saw saw that called ever the announcers were shocked by it the the guy on the um the ref analyst came on he said didn’t think that that should be called either uh so just a real Phantom call you’re right good description there and I didn’t understand that one so that set up the Ravens for their second punt of the of the game and of course that was the only punt that they would have until the very end um I want the fourth and one play uh on 16 in and baitman excellent coaching I agree at the end of that first half my belief was that the main thing John Harbaugh did not want to have happen is he did not want to allow the Chargers to get even additional points at the end of that first half without the Ravens doing anything and so the goal of going forward on that fourth down was just simply to a he thought that they could get it he said in the interview as much like I thought we could get that six inches here uh but B it was basically to prevent the Chargers from scoring if you punt the ball there Chargers are in great field position and they probably only need a few yards and then they’re in field goal range so by the fact that you get that all of a sudden now they’re not going to score a field goal right then and there but you have the ability now they March the ball all the way down the field end up scoring a touchdown so I know the Chargers come back and get a field goal but the Ravens are still leading and just massive because they got the ball coming out of half and scored again um I’m not so sure Randy about Kyle Hamilton in the backend uh fixing the Ravens issues against big plays uh that’s going to be a big question because the Baltimore Ravens take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a Sunday afternoon game 425 eastern time and that’s a big factor here I’m not sure the status of Devonte Smith yet but we are going to see AJ Brown going up against this secondary with some of those deep shots uh because the Baltimore Ravens much better stopping the run and the Philadelphia Eagles that’s their bread and butter if if the philadelph Eagles and saquon Barkley get Limited at all now Gus Edwards and and and and uh more importantly JK Dobbins were having a solid day of running exceeding my expectations for what they would do against this Baltimore Ravens defense early on in that game um and so if Baltimore’s run defense can be had a little bit by saquin and then they can hit some shots over to AJ Brown this could be a good offensive performance for the Philadelphia Eagles but if that Ravens defense steps up a little bit more and tries to play the run a little bit more keep in mind the LA Charters were a pass first team they switched their MO once Justin Herbert got healthier and they’ve been throwing the football a lot more on early Downs the Philadelphia Eagles are a little bit more based upon saquon Barkley so if you can meet their match and you can play the run a little bit more like the Ravens can do they were trying to play play the pass a little bit more we’ll see if they get ran Smith back for this game I’m not sure his status but that loss obviously was meaningful if they could get ran Smith back play the run a little bit stronger and forcefully as their primary objective then it’s going to put Jaylen Herz into a bind and we’re going to need to see those AJ Brown shots connect uh and that’s where that Kyle Hamilton matchup is going to be fascinating so good question Randy on that but getting back to Lamar Jackson and the Pittsburgh Steelers Matt if you could throw up this next graphic I want show you this is the Baltimore Ravens last 25 regular season games okay this is 25 regular season games obviously going all the way back uh to week five of the 2023 season Lamar has only missed one of these games so you know everybody used to say well Lamar’s injury-prone Lamar’s never around uh that he’s been healthy for all of these games in fact since the start of the 2023 season he hasn’t missed a single game due to injury the only game that he didn’t play uh was by Design and one thing I want you to pay attention to is look at those yellow highlights and the rows that I’ve highlighted and over on the far right column we are looking at the points scored by the Baltimore Ravens over their last 25 games and there’s only three games where they have scored less than 20 points only three games where they scored less than 20 points uh which is pretty remarkable this offense has been massively efficient um but those three games Matt why don’t you pull up the next graphic all three were the three games against the Pittsburgh Steelers the Pittsburgh Steelers have the Ravens Kryptonite I mean they just know the right style of Defense to play against Lamar Jackson and Lamar didn’t play that week 18 game but holding the Ravens to less than 20 points only three times over last 25 games and the only team that’s been able to do that has been the Pittsburgh Steelers and that defense of the Steelers of course the Steelers went three and0 you tend to do that when you’re holding your opponent to less than 20 points um and so we’ll see what happens in the rematch uh later this season between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens and if the Ravens any answers at that point in time but I’m really fascinating to see um how that game is going to Bear out okay um let me see what we’re looking at here before we get into the next topic okay um I’m going to hit this off right now and then we’re going to get into the next topic here um actually let’s hit one more thing and then I’ll get into this Matt let’s go to the next [Applause] topic so this one was fascinating to me because I don’t this clip is just absolutely hilarious to me um Matt why don’t you go ahead and roll the clip of John Mara talking about saquon Barkley and and let’s play this two times and I want to see if you guys are picking up on what I’m hearing so roll it Matt and then roll it a second time what’s the latest just on the seg one thing I just got a text that Chicago’s driving the price up and Philly’s out I don’t know if that’s true or not which I don’t know if I’ll make a couple calls I don’t even know if that’s going to going to happen but I have a tough time sleeping if sine goes to Philadelphia I’ll tell that as I’ve told you just being h i I have been around enough players so but he’s the he he’s the most popular player we have by far yeah what’s the latest just on the say I just got a text that Chicago’s driving the price up and Philly’s out I don’t know if that’s true or not which I don’t know if I’ll make a couple calls I don’t even know if that’s going to going to happen but I have a tough time sleeping if squ goes to Philadelphia outside that as I’ve told you just being up I have been around enough players so but he’s the he he’s the most popular player we have by far yeah okay so watching that the thing that St that stands out to me is Mara not wanting saquan Barkley to go to Philadelphia not because he’s good not because he could be productive there but because he’s popular because of his popularity and it’s just mindboggling to me that these are the things that owners are focused on these are the things that like if you’re trying to win games you would care it all about if you think it’s in your best interest to win games to sign Daniel Jones to an extension and give him $40 million a year and to let saquan Barkley walk out the door because you don’t think he’s got it anymore you don’t think he’s worth that bit of money um then those should be statistical statistically driven reasons those should be databased reasons for you making these decisions you should not care what happens to saquin because of the popularity that he might give to the Philadelphia Eagles if saquon Barkley isn’t good like your data should suggest and that’s why you’re letting him leave then he you don’t care that he’s popular if he’s not good in Philadelphia they’re not going to like him in Philadelphia if he’s not good the reason he was popular in New York is because he was explosive he provided points on the scoreboard he was one of your best players and if he’s delivering that in Philadelphia and he’s still explosive and he’s still productive and he can still score touchdowns then he’s going to be popular in Philadelphia the fact that you are worried about what happens to saquon because he was popular is hilarious to me the other factor is that I thought is is just remarkable in those clips is just Joe Shon sitting there smiling you know when his owner is talking about I’m going to have a hard time sleeping if he’s in Philadelphia and and and Joe Shon is sitting there smiling uh it’s just it’s just a strange strange um situation going on in New York I don’t really know it’s just like these two teams are in the same division as the Eagles the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants and so uh and then you’ve had all the things that have happened with the Washington franchise when it was the Redskins and then became the commanders over the last 15 years or so and it really shouldn’t be that big of a shock that a team that just isn’t a total catastrophe is having a lot of success year in and year out the last several years like the Philadelphia Eagles are right they win that Super Bowl in 2017 uh they’ve been competitive they’ve made other trips to the Super Bowl since then they’ve won a lot of games all you have to do like we know that howy Roseman you could say some of his moves aren’t great but generally speaking he’s good at what he does and all you have to do is just not be incompetent in the NFC East to have success there all you have to do is not just completely trip or be wearing a bag over your head or not look at data and you’re going to be reasonably in good shape when you’ve got guys like Mara and and Jerry Jones running the shows of some of these franchises and playing roles into to them and leaning into certain things and having your opinions on certain things and uh and that’s playing into some of the moves that are being made um just absolutely hilarious and ridiculous to me um how many of the guys in that video will still be employed at the end of the season that’s a good question obviously Mara is definitely going to be employed um obviously Mara um okay I want to bring up though a uh rushing yards over expectation if we look at uh the top four teams we’ll bring in the graphic in one second map but first the top four teams okay well you got it there um this is not oh there we go rushing yards over expectation we’ve got the Eagles the Ravens the Cardinal and the Packers these four teams lead the NFL in rushing yards over expectation so if you look at player tracking data from the next nextg stats with the chips on all the pads they have an understanding of based upon closest Defenders based upon run spacing uh blocking Etc how many yards should be gained on a certain Run play and then they can calculate rushing yards over expectation how many yards are gained in addition to that and those are the four teams that are one through four all right now bring up the graphic mat it just so happens that when you look at pure EPA per running back run EPA per running back run that you are seeing all of those team up there except for the Green Bay Packers which are pretty close um but these are the top teams in the NFL for uh EPA per running back run ranked one through eight and note over on the right so this is not like this is a a a per play Metric so it doesn’t matter that you are good and so you have more run plays because you’re winning games and so you’re productive uh at the end that does not matter what matters here is just on a per play B basis how effective is your running and when you look here your top eight teams and it does say NFC it should say NFC West instead of AFC West for the Cardinals but your top eight teams pretty much all of them are in first place in their respective divisions and one of the teams that’s inside of the top eight the Washington commanders they’re in second place and that’s only because the Philadelphia Eagles are in first place and that says AFC East that should say NFC East um so divisions got screwed up here ignore that but the point is most of these teams are absolutely dominating their divisions and of course the Baltimore Ravens that’s you know Justin Tucker doesn’t miss two field goals against Pittsburgh Steelers the Baltimore Ravens are in first place in the AFC North so that’s one game that could have gone either way the only one that really stands out is terms of like not good is the Carolina Panthers right who is in fourth place we saw that run game came to play against the Kansas City Chiefs and help that team almost pull off an outright upset provide one of their best games of the year of course Bryce young his best game of the year but but uh chuba hubard and what he was doing on the ground against a very good Kansas City Chiefs run defense with that Panthers offensive line being healthy was a big factor in this so um this just gets back to the reasons why running the football has been more important this year and in recent years it does not necessarily say you have to overpay running backs although we’ve seen the top two teams on this list Baltimore signs Derk Henry Philadelphia signs saquon Barkley and that certainly has helped put them in the number one and number two Catbird seats here for EPA per running back run now I you could potentially argue now that running back’s position has been devalued so much that what they were being paid by those respective franchises actually were underpays and not overpays and they’re worth a little bit more than the what they were receiving but that’s a topic for a different day the point of the matter here is that running the football has been very effective this season and the teams that are able to run the football regardless of who your back is are able to perform well win games against this too high shell coverage that we’re seeing around the NFL and be productive so I thought that was really interesting all right um what I want to do before we get to our next topic is we are of course heading into Thanksgiving this is the best week of the year in my opinion my favorite week for watching football enjoying football and if you feel the same hopefully um you’re going to get involved in this next uh promotion that we’ve got going here because this is the best promotion that we do all season we have had Some solid promotions earlier in the year but now we’ve established our track record now you now you’ve been able to see kind of what we’re capable of of delivering hopefully um last night we went five and0 got a little bit hairy at the end still pulled it out five and0 on on football so we’re going to get started with the Black Friday deal right now and to get involved in the Black Friday deal we are going to share the code show 73 show 73 why are we going 73 % off and that’s not just on the rest of the season package which is what you should be using it for because it’ll drop the price down to what is it $38 per week but what we are doing the reason we’re going show 73 is because the computer totals this year have gone 22 and8 and that is 73% and so computer totals that’s my bread and butter that is when I write my book in the offseason and I tell people this is what what my specialty is what my expertise is why you’re potentially watching the show is because of my prowess on computer totals and my computer model we’re we’re still crushing now most of our wins have come in the prop market and that’s what a lot of our money is uh what we’ve generated a $100 better is up to $1,786 in profit this year because of the volume on the prop side is what’s leading that charge but the computer totals are absolutely crushing and it’s one of the best years that we’ve ever had through 12 weeks of the season from a total revenue standpoint total profit standpoint it is the best year that we’ve ever had uh through 12 weeks so um even if you so you you haven’t been on board if you haven’t gotten involved in what we’ve been doing in the past what I want to tell you is this the longest prop segment that we do every single Friday where I end the show by giving you my favorite longest prop bets um I’ve got my guy Jack who t is the record it keeps track of this um we are uh Jack where did you go here on the season we’re 15-8 over the last three weeks weeks 10 11 and 12 we’re 5- one I gave you an extra one last week we went three and 0 last week you’ve had to have been making a little bit of money on some of these profets just to show like I said for my stuff that I’ve given you 15 and8 this year that’s 65% or five in one over the last three weeks this called an investment take that pay it forward use something that you’ve made off of the show for free just watching it and get involved with the show 73 code you can use it on a weekly package you can also use it on a rest of season package which is what I would strongly recommend that you do so show 73 my most profitable year of the Season hopefully you can get involved in that promotion all right Matt let’s go to the next topic all right this one is just interesting observation um I don’t advise teams nor have I ever advise teams on special teams so this is a little bit out of my Lane that I normally operate in but I just wanted to play this clip I’m probably going to play it several times and we’ll talk about it while we’re playing it Matt um I just thought was interesting seeing as how the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings were in overtime and the Minnesota Vikings had a game-winning field goal and the Chicago Bears had two field goals blocked over the last seven days that caused them to drop games one of which they definitely would have won um and then they’re in this position with the Minnesota Vikings and Matt why don’t you pull up this this is the all 22 Endzone angle of this kick there’s no audio we’ll just talk over a little bit here obviously the Chicago Bears are trying to block this thing on our right as we’re watching this they’re trying to attack but just watch what the guys over there on the left are doing uh you you’ve got two guys standing back not even trying to do anything a third guy doesn’t even try to do anything number 32 there on the end of the line of scrimmage um you’re basically putting all your eggs in the basket that these uh six guys off to the right are going to actually be productive I don’t know why you would not try to be a little bit more aggressive across the board um with your field goal block unit here um but like I said I’m I’m no uh special teams Maven uh I never have advised teams on special teams but seeing as how the Chicago Bears had multiple kicks blocked against them to cause problems for them uh I just I just this one was interesting to me that they had so many guys that were not attempting to try to block this field goal um okay Matt next topic uh all right this one is pretty interesting to me because it relates to a team giving up on a quarterback and deciding instead that they are going to uh put their eggs in the back basket of somebody who wasn’t part of their system wasn’t part of their team and the results that occur from that and that is Baker Mayfield um Baker Mayfield watching him thrive in Tampa Bay since the start of the 20203 season and then seeing the juxtaposition of that with what the Cleveland Browns are doing at that quarterback position W with all the investment into DeShaun Watson has has just been hilarious so Matt if you could pull up that tweet no uhv we canv this is just like Baker Mayfield getting down the field uh being absolutely outstanding with the effort do you have Matt while I’m talking are you able to just navigate to the website get bring me back to full screen are you able to navigate to the website on X where it had the actual tweet I wanted to look at the actual tweet rather than the video itself I wasn’t clear on that that’s on me um but I wanted to see what the text of the guy who quote tweeted my tweet there uh and what he was saying because I was going to talk about that a little bit but um it was absolutely uh you can’t get more stark contrast between what Baker Mayfield is doing in Tampa and the way that the Cleveland Browns kind of pivoted off of Baker and decided to go with an unproven commodity and that whenever you have it just bring it up but the issue to me is this is what happens a lot of times in free agency is it’s so difficult for some of these GMS to understand the value of their own players on their own roster and make good evaluations of somebody that they see in practice every single day during the week and people that they see in all their games and yet they think that they’re going to have a better understanding of somebody who plays football somewhere else now the deshun Watson issue here obviously with everything that happened to him outside of the football field caused I think mental physical layoff and those types of things yeah if you could just bring up that quote tweet I can’t read that no that’s not the one all right yeah forget it Matt um it was it I sent it to you on on uh in our slack Matt this tweet I’m looking for is the one that I sent you in the slack um but it was just amazing to me how um this team had to make so many changes so it’s Kevin stansky I’ve talked about this before runs a heavy based offense his ideal offense which was he what he was running in Minnesota a lot of heavy Personnel very little 11 personnel which is three wide receiver sets he likes to have heavy Personnel out there and he likes to use play action and and and run the football and then operate the pass game off of that set up a lot of things with the pre-step motion or with the heavy Personnel making it look like Ron and then passing off of it Baker Mayfield had his ups and downs but they just decided to to pull the plug and do something else with him and then you see Baker Mayfield um with two different offensive coordinators by the way having a lot of success because remember the offensive coordinator w Dave Canales goes to coach the Carolina Panthers then they come in and get a new offensive coordinator and Baker Mayfield is still having success and that’s despite the fact that his top two wide receivers have been injured for several weeks now so um I just uh I just um it’s just it’s just amazing to me what he’s been doing there Matt let’s forget the tweet and go to The Graphic that I sent you so here’s what I want to show just from a comparison perspective if you look at all the quarterbacks that have played for the Cleveland Browns over the last couple of years during the time that Baker Mayfield has played in um Tampa Bay and and just look at how much better he is performing than these other quarterbacks you look at where he ranks an EPA per attempt which is number one and where most of these other guys for the Cleveland Browns rank all of them negative with the exception of jamus Winston who uh has only been playing a few games yet thus far for the Cleveland Browns I love watching jamus Winston though so I’m not going to knock jamus Winston for not playing enough games but that said Baker Mayfield much better in his success rate the most accurate quarterback of all of these guys his yards per attempt is a little bit below Joe Flaco but not by much um his completion rate is best of any of these guys he’s obviously thrown for more passing touchdowns because he had more pass attempts but his touchdown to interception ratio is also by far the best 2.7 touchdowns for every interception thrown none of these other guys come anywhere close to that um you look at he he’s a little bit lower on touchdowns per attempt Joe Flaco’s higher because Joe Flaco didn’t play very much and when Joe Flaco was in there it was a lot of running the football and then pass the ball when you need to to try to make big plays so we’ve saw in Indianapolis it’s harder to rely on Joe Flaco game plan week one we like just put him out there and have him execute but when you need him in the game like to throw the football down the field where the defense might be playing a little bit softer or not respecting uh things as much that’s when you can have some success with Joe Flaco passer rating first down rate third down conversion rate um everything is uh just the bees knees for Baker Mayfield uh Matt why don’t you pull that Tweet back up now that you say you got it there so this was this was what spur I somebody retweeted or quote tweeted my tweet said the Browns having a potential franchise quarterback mismanaging his injury and giving up on him to make the worst trade in NFL history is something uh and that one got I want to say like 20 how many how many uh thousands of likes Matt 20,000 50,000 60,000 is up to 60,000 likes so he quot tweeted my tweet and and uh got a ton of likes on that because he’s right he’s absolutely right um it is funny every time Baker Mayfield has success this is what one of the reasons it’s just fun to root for Baker because a he cares and I love watching guys like who care a lot about the sport put a lot of effort into it even if they’re not the best just go out there and lay everything on the line and you get that from like jamus Winston as well these these guys I’ll debate franchise quarterback he’s obviously playing great maybe he is a franchise quarterback but he’s not like a top 10 franchise quarterback so I guess it’s fair to put him in that category as long as we’re not expecting a franchise quarterback to be like a top 10 guy um but these guys that play hard that that that care a lot about the sport um you could see how much he has started to care about it over the last year or two if you listen to some of his interviews uh absolutely great love watching um Baker play love watching um jamus play and of course uh seeing the Cleveland Browns mortgage so much for the Sha Watson and it just come up totally Hollow um okay let’s go into the strength of schedule now not so let’s turn the page and focus on uh week 13 and to do that let’s bring up the first graphic Matt so here in case you’re new to the show we are going to display the past defensive efficiency of opponents total defensive efficiency of opponents and I’m focusing in on weeks 7 to 12 so the last six weeks on the top graphic what defenses have you play this is to help understand how good your offense might be what position your offense might be in uh for week 13 so if you look at a team like the Tennessee Titans they have played the most difficult defenses in the NFL no team from week seven to 12 the last six weeks has played a more difficult schedule of opposing defenses than will Levis Mason Rudolph and the Tennessee Titans if you look at the opposite end of the spectrum on the top graphic still the Philadelphia Eagles have played the number one easiest schedule of defenses over those last six weeks so that’s the order that the graphic is sorted in and it’s the same order from top to bottom teams that have played the most difficult schedule are on the left teams that have played the easiest schedule of defenses is on the right then you go to the bottom and you can juxtapose the where these teams now sit compared to where they sat in the top graphics so for example if you look at the Tennessee Titans they’re now going up against the Washington commanders defense the Tennessee Titans have played the number one most difficult schedule of opposing defenses over the last six weeks and now they’re going up against one of the easier defenses in the NFL that Cooper rush just had a lot of success against just few days ago without their both their starting guards without receivers with a bad Run game um they go into DC and pull off the outright upset on the road now the Washington commanders got to stand their ground and defend their home field advantage against the Tennessee Titans whose offense is going to be seeing much weaker defense in the commanders than they have seen over the last six weeks um you look at the next few teams there moving left to right the Jaguars the Cardinals and the Cincinnati Bengals they’ve played tough schedules they’ve got another tough schedule uh on Deck here week 13 so it’s not going to get much easier for them so the key is where is a team that’s looks a lot different in week 13 which is the bottom graphic compared to they were ranking in the top graphic and that’s where you can identify potentially some spots where offenses could pop off offenses could have some success so couple of other examples you’ve got the Indianapolis Colts are going to see a much easier defense than that what they’ve been accustomed to facing um year-to date or sorry not year to date but over the last uh six weeks when they’re going up against the New England Patriots um we saw what the Patriots gave up to the Miami Dolphins that the Colts are going to be able to see that level of success but um the Indianapolis Colts offense should be in a better position here after going up against the Detroit Lions defense just last week and a tough schedule overall the fifth toughest over the last six weeks couple other teams real quick uh you got the all the NFC South teams looking to pop off here you got the Saints you got the Panthers and you got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all three of those teams now the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Carolina Panthers so those two teams and their defenses much weaker uh there’s a good reason why that total uh had been bet up from where it was at 44 and a half up to 46 46 and a half is because of the defenses um that these these two teams are going to play uh against one another after playing a much more difficult schedule leading into this um you also have the Pittsburgh Steelers uh who are noteworthy from the AFC North this week they’re going up against the Cincinnati Bengals it’s not like they played a brutal schedule about a league average schedule but now they get to go against the Cincinnati Bengals in the opposite end of the spectrum you got an offense like the Denver Broncos Denver Broncos have had a lot of success uh as you know if you’re a subscriber we’ve won multiple bets uh betting the Broncos in some capacity the last several weeks uh sides totals as well as props um now they’re going up against the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football and one of the things to note uh that I’ll just mention is the Cleveland Browns bring a lot of pressure they get a lot of pressure and if you were watching that game intently maybe some of you weren’t but if you were watching that game intently the Raiders versus the BR uh Raiders versus the Broncos on Sunday afternoon Bo Nicks was struggling early with some of that pressure and one of the key factors for Bo Nicks in week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons and in week 12 against the Las Vegas Raiders is that both of those defenses the Raiders and the Falcons do not get a whole lot of pressure they’re some of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL um now the Raiders had a little bit of success against Bo Knicks at points in time and and and popped off and then Bo Knicks was struggling Bo Knicks the season um has gotten a lot better from I want to say like week six or seven onward when he does not have pressure and so when he was going up against some teams that don’t bring a lot of pressure don’t have a lot of success at getting pressure bone was really looking great Boni has never really made that jump forward when he is facing pressure even over the last five six seven games his numbers against pressure are still pretty bad and now he’s going to finally be going up against a defense that gets a lot of pressure so that game’s going to be fascinating on Monday Night Football I think that’s one of the biggest factors in the game I’m just giving it to you right now is that pressure that the Cleveland Browns are going to be able to bring does it get home do they impact Bon Knicks at all that’s where this game I think is going to be the side and the other side of the ball too for jamus Winston the pressure from the Denver Broncos because they’re a team that blitzes at one of the highest rates it gets a lot of pressure as well how will James Winston Faire against that pressure those two things are going to decide this game the pressure that both defenses bring against the opposing quarterbacks okay um just a couple other teams that are a little bit noteworthy uh the Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears both of those offenses are going to be going up against defenses that are much more difficult than what they have played over the last month and a half if you look at the Chicago Bears naturally this is the first game the very next game that we’re going to see Thursday on Thanksgiving at 12:30 Eastern Chicago Bears going up against the Detroit Lions defense really interested to see if the stuff that Thomas Brown has like tweaked is that going to have success several weeks now that there’s tape on what he’s been trying to do with Caleb Williams it’s a short week to prepare but do the Detroit Lions are they able to slow down that offense a little bit of the Chicago Bears not that that offense was lighting the world on fire early in the game they caught on fire a little bit later on in the game and Caleb Williams made some really outstanding throws um in that one and then uh you got the Atlanta Falcons on this list as well let’s flip over to the other side Matt okay so the next one we’ve got we’re looking at the other side of the football past offensive efficiency of opponents so once again you’ve got the prior six weeks and then you’ve got week 13 at the bottom so a team like the Seattle Seahawks has played the number one most difficult schedule of offenses by a a distance right you see how far they are above the number two team weeks seven through 12 so the last month and a half last six games that they’ve played the most difficult schedule of opposing offenses now the Seattle sex are going to be going up against the offense that is is below the NFL average in terms of the New York Jets Seattle is off of a buy Seattle has had some time to work on their defense they’ve had some time to get a little bit healthier on the defensive side of the ball how much is Seattle going to be able to do defensively here to slow down and limit Aaron roders and the New York Jets offense we’ve seen Aaron Rogers and the New York Jets offense struggle and we’ve seen them struggle against defenses that aren’t quite as good as the Seattle Seahawks now the Seattle Seahawks defense started off the year a little B stronger then got injured then looked a lot weaker can they get back on track now and and will they look better in this role we also see a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers second most difficult schedule the prior six weeks of opposing offenses now they’re going up against Carolina Panthers naturally one of the weakest offenses in the NFL although we did see the Carolina Panthers get a little bit healthier along that offensive line get a little bit healthier at the receiver position and look a lot better and surprise a lot of people I thought there was a chance that the Carolina Panthers uh with the way that the Kansas City Chiefs don’t really get a lot of distance in their games could stick around but man the way that they came back in that game and uh and and performed against Steve spagnolo’s defense I certainly was not expecting the Carolina Panthers to put up that many points and to perform as well as they did against the Kansas City Chiefs and now you’re looking at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it theoretically on paper is a big Edge for the Bucks taking on an offense that’s this week but is this offense as weak as what they have been the prior five weeks of the Year versus what we saw from them last week so that’s going to be interesting to see as well um my bad uh Seattle’s not off a buy Seattle was off of a buy the week before that is what I was referring to the week two weeks ago Seattle was off of B and played the Arizona Cardinals got a little bit help and got some guys back off of that bu shut down that defense off the buy played a lot better shut down the Arizona Cardinals um and now they’re looking to do the same against the New York Jets uh another team the Dallas Cowboys going up against a weaker New York Giants offense could that defense look a bit better Micah Parsons is back and encouraging his guys to play really strong so we’ll see what happens there on the opposite end of the spectrum it’s kind of like what we saw in the last graph there’s more teams on the bottom leftand quadrant than there are in the top right quadrant which means we got several teams that are getting seeing things a lot easier on the offensive side of the ball or the defensive side of the ball not as many teams with shock to their systems on for the negative uh the closest that we’ve got is the New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints defense has played the fifth easiest schedule of opposing offenses over the last six weeks now the New Orleans Saints defense is going to have to go up against a more difficult offense uh who are they playing this week um uh why am I not seeing them on the odd screen oh the Rams they’re going up against the Rams in an afternoon game for the Saints so it’s a home game for the Saints but it’s a late kick I was looking at the earlier kicks knowing that they hosted a game but didn’t realize that that was a late 4 405 kickoff uh for the New Orleans Saints so they’re taking on the Rams so that’s a step up in competition for their defense a slight Step Up in competition for the Baltimore Ravens defense going up against the Philadelphia Eagles obviously the LA Chargers tested them a bit last week now they’re going up against Philadelphia Eagles and the game of the week in my opinion especially considering you know they move the 49ers Bills game is Sunday Night Football supposed to be occupying kind of that that uh Top Class of the day on Sunday but with the injury to Brock py and the question marks surrounding him this Eagles Ravens game certainly the only 425 game of the day on Sunday is going to be an outstanding watch uh you got the Minnesota Vikings and the Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans we talked about them previously going up against um a much easier offense well their defense is going up against a much more difficult offense than what the Tennessee Titans defense has been facing that said this Washington commanders offense without those running backs which I I don’t know if we’re going to get them Brian Robinson or Austin Eckler very onedimensional and Cliff Kingsbury has been Cliff Kings berrying the offense pretty well lately uh down the stretch here so this Washton commanders offense gonna need to rely a little bit more on Jaden Daniels Wheels um they’re not having the success consistent success right they’re occasional splash plays but they’re not having the consistency getting the ball to their wide receivers uh they were thriving on that ground game that prior graphic I showed you they were top eight I believe they were number seven if memory serves with their efficiency running the football with their running backs EPA per rush if they don’t have the running backs and they can’t lean on that run game man they’re going to be in for some difficulty here against the Tennessee Titans potentially so that one’s going to be pretty interesting in my opinion uh and you got the Minnesota ings of course uh whose defense has looked okay they gave up some points there against the Chicago Bears late uh but the new uh Minnesota Vikings are now going to be stepping up in class taking on that Arizona Cardinals offense which sure as heck didn’t look great last week uh but now they’re going up against a defense that plays a lot more Zone than man which Kyler Murray this year has massive splits against Zone coverage he’s much better playing against Zone than he is against man he’s actually done pretty well against the blitz this season uh at making some plays happen when he has been blitzed so I’m interested to see how he does there uh absolutely isus Alex like hit the like button yes please everybody hit the like button if you’re following me over on YouTube make sure that you subscribe give us a thumbs up and uh that helps everything as we’re growing this show um I know a lot of people are going to be toning down you can come back to me Matt a lot of people are going to be from the content space it’s probably going to be more difficult to get solid late week content um just because it’s a holiday week you guys are going to be getting ready to hit the road some of you or welcoming in family uh it’s going to be a little bit more difficult we are not going to be changing up anything with our Friday show so um if you are depending upon some college picks some NFL picks been on fire uh Ryan is I don’t know exactly his percentage I’ll share it with you on Friday uh I’ve been what say 15 and8 65% on the picks that I’ve been giving you five- one on this very show on Friday afternoon we aren going anywhere we will be here Friday the day after Thanksgiving at noon Eastern same time as scheduled uh that we do it every single week we’ll be here on Friday so if you guys are looking for uh a diversion on Friday everybody’s got the day off pretty much and you’re sitting around I highly encourage you set your alarms tune back in we will be giving out free bets in college and NFL Friday from noon until 1:30 and you’re not going to want to miss it especially considering our record um if you guys have any questions I’ll get to them on the chat new Call of Duty release cards no touchdown just saying okay so um could have some a little spare time for Kyler I think he did take offense to that uh after that that discussion came out uh but if you guys want to get involved with the service again this is one of the biggest deals that we do is our Black Friday deal it’s going on for the rest of the week 73% off everything at the website the code is show 73 73% off everything um you can use it on a weekly package you can use it on a rest of season package and it drops the price down to 38 bucks a week uh which you’re not going to be able to get a better deal uh considering that we are having our best season that we’ve ever had why is it 73 show 73 is because we’re 73% on computer totals this year 22 and eight on the season um take some of the money that you have made over the last several weeks betting our picks in this season on this show and reinvest it uh with the deal show 73 get 73% off I’m looking forward to these games this weekend I’ve got got some props and some bets that I’m lining up here for the Thanksgiving Day games uh so we’ll have those out to subscribers and we will also be attacking the board for Sunday so uh some some decent things on Deck I’m looking forward to the card this week I think it’s going to be a lot of fun um you got it uh Gibbs longest rush I’m waiting for that to see what they’re going to post that at um that’ll be interesting I think we have to wait on David Montgomery’s status uh but absolutely appreciate it guys happy holidays to you as well Joseph and to everybody who’s watching the show since I’m not going to see you before Thursday make sure you take that extra five to 10 minutes think back and reflect on things that you can be thankful for some people have a lot to be thankful for even people that don’t think they might have a lot to be thankful for there are things that you can find in your life that you should be thankful for uh please you know spend some time reflecting on the things that have happened that are positive in your life make sure you stay in touch with uh your family and schedule out some time to either talk to them on the phone or visit with them in person uh over this holiday weekend uh very important to do that you know it’s it’s it’s a great time here uh at sharp football we’re having a great season but want you guys to uh be doing well in your personal lives as well so um Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families and we will see you guys on Friday what [Music]
🚀 Related Hashtags: #Sharp #Football #Show #Warren #Sharp #NFL #Analysis #Early #Week #Preview
Disclaimer: This video is embedded directly from YouTube. All rights to the video and content belong to the original creator, Warren Sharp. For more details, please visit the original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rsy4meBAqeQ.
