📅 Published on: 2024-12-05 20:21:08

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In this engaging mailbag episode of the Locked On Fantasy Basketball podcast, host Josh Lloyd and guest Dan Besbris from @OldManSquad dive into listener questions, focusing on key players like Khris Middleton, Mark Williams, Nikola Vucevic, and Herb Jones. They explore Middleton’s current form and potential impact on fantasy rosters, while also assessing Mark Williams’ return from injury and what it means for managers. The discussion extends to Nikola Vucevic’s statistical trends and Herb Jones’ evolving role, providing valuable insights for fantasy enthusiasts looking to make informed decisions. Tune in for expert analysis and strategic advice tailored to enhance your fantasy basketball experience.
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🕵️‍♂️ Transcript:

is a mailbag we’re answering fantasy basketball questions and well Michael Bolton’s here thanks Josh it’s Michael Bolton here and it’s time for another episode of the locked on Fantasy Basketball podcast let’s get to it let’s get to it in date you are locked on fantasy your daily NBA fantasy podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello and welcome to the locked on Fantasy Basketball podcast brought to you by basketball monster my name is Josh Lloyd and I just today found out that Chris Martin is from Zimbabwe I’m also the lead fantasy Analyst at basketball monster.com and you can find me on Blue Sky at Josh lloyd. B.O on Twitter at red rockball on Tik Tok at red rockball and on Instagram at locked on Fantasy Basketball today’s episode is brought to you by fangel start the season with a big return on Fel get 150 bonus bets $ in bonus bets yeah that’s it if you win your first $5 bet go ahead and get to fel.com to get started and check out locked on daily after you do that that is where you can find the best um what do you call it the best newsletter for your favorite team we are here to answer questions regarding fantasy basketball anything else that may pop up and to do that I am joined by the one and only danuel bizb Jr danuel welcome back to the show yes I’m r ready me I mean is ready is ready ready well Dan when we think about it in life are we anything ever more than ready is how can we ever be fully how can we ever be fully ready I I I haven’t figured it out yet I go into every encounter a tiny bit tired and mostly confused uh yeah well that’s that’s a good way to go like you don’t want to be overconfident you don’t want to think that you’ve got all the answers you don’t want to think that everything is uh sorted and and ready to go and that you you know everything that’s happening you always got to have a little bit of self-doubt in there Dan and you know I’m sure that you are riddled with that at all points yeah all points I mean all I can say is that this analyst is always filled with self-doubt well there you go that’s uh that’s a great way to to have that Denny and uh let’s let’s let’s talk let’s talk fantasy let’s talk fantasy because I think we’ve got some stuff to talk about I’m sure there is there’s people dropping in questions left right and Center um all right let’s have a look oh this an easy one for you maybe it’s not steepen wolf says I’m sure that’s not his real name he says what is the biggest surprise this fantasy season oh uh biggest surprise um those ones are always hard for me because there’s so many how do you like classify one as the single largest I’d like to say these certain guys that jumped up the board but a lot of them were guys that we all kind of liked so it’s not a massive surprise um before he got got hurt I thought Alex Caruso basically not really having a role with the Thunder was a pretty damn big surprise and that’s like it barely hits the radar for a lot of folks is it’s not a big name but that was one that surprised the hell out of me and but like most of the names that we’re looking at at the top we could say oh you know Dyson Daniels having an amazing year but we thought he was going to be good I don’t think we thought he was going to be three steals a game good and I don’t know that we think that’s going to last but those to me are actually less surprising than like a guy that we thought was or we I should say we I I don’t I don’t know how everybody else felt thought was going to have a role that just didn’t so I’m going with the under the radar answer on that one yeah know I think that’s actually probably the right one because I think we all thought that he had a chance to start he played 27 minutes a night or so and be really useful maybe not playing the same amount as in Chicago and maybe not even shooting the same way that he did there but like he’s plays 20 minutes a night he’s not even there he’s doing nothing like that that shocked me as well and I agree like the stuff that you hey jayen Williams are going to take a step forward cool got it like Jaylen Johnson yep we know that Tyson Daniels are going to do more cool we’re all all aboard that as well yeah I think that sort of thing is is the thing that’s surprising like you could say I didn’t expect Dyson to be this good or I didn’t expect Jaylen Johnson to be this good but like okay how much of a surprise is that and how much does that level stick it’s more about like when you just completely sort of whiff on a roll this guy’s doing way more or way less than you thought to me they’re the big surprise we go oh didn’t for a million years you see that coming and that’s that’s one of those ones uh for me I think that that hits and and has that um not not even of concern is the right word but like when you go huh okay may reassess how we view that one as we uh as we move forward um prian says did you go to Berkeley when Jaylen Brown was there I apprey sure you’re not the same age yeah I’m I I’ve got him by a couple of years I was there I don’t know if a single cow bear from my tenure at Berkeley made the NBA right after I finished Leon Poe was like the next bear to make uh the NBA and he wasn’t there for very long but I just remember pogot buckets um mostly you know we were in that era of I was there from 01 to 05 so if folks want to look that up they can they can figure out who was there when I was there the football program went from being God awful to having a lot of kind of brand name guys like Marshon Lynch was there when I was there Aaron Rogers was there when I was there you were a big influence on Aaron Rogers then yeah he and I we go we do our iasa trips together yeah um I don’t know I I don’t I don’t want to go down the air no don’t please don’t I have to like I have to root for former Cal Bears but there are ones where it’s harder than others D yeah yes Damian says what do I do with AAR Thompson in this ESPN points but don’t worry about the ESPN points part what do you do with assar Thompson uh I’ve left him on the waiver wire to this point um and maybe he ramps up but I don’t know that there’s a guarantee that he does um so if I’m going to even think about stashing somebody I want it to be someone that I know is working their way into a much larger role and I I don’t think that that’s guaranteed um I’m sure he’ll do more than he has been since the sort of coming back from the blood clots but uh he’s not a guy that I’m sitting on right now yeah I I I don’t know where that question disappeared to I thought it was up on the screen but it’s disappeared um yeah I I not either like I don’t I don’t see why we would um why you would do that honestly because you’re right like where is the role coming from and I had this skepticism in the offseason is that one of the biggest problems on the Pistons was there’s no shooting around these guys and Kate has to do everything so like you’re going to put assar Thompson out there next to Jaylen Duran and then have and Jaden I is an if you shooter and still no shooting like they’re going to give these guys like Harris and fonio and Hardway and beasy they brought them in for a very specific reason so there’s no specific like hey here’s 30 minutes for this man coming off you potentially life-threatening blood clots I I don’t see it and I wouldn’t if it changes like make the move right but I I don’t see how it h it’s happening right at the moment this is a question that’s similar I guess from uh s he says s always brings the heat on these questions is there any scenario in which you’re okay with stashing a player that is giving you near zeros right now or do you need some usable production well um as the resident Roto games cap guy that that question ends up getting kind of being a lot easier for me because then the answer is yes because you can treat guys like that almost like they’re an i player if you’re in a games cap League you can just stick them on your bench forever and head to-head my answer is no I value getting off to a quick start way too high I I don’t like to have to make that late season comeback because I was squatting on guys for a number of reasons first of all like it has to work if it doesn’t work then you sort of double screwed Yourself by getting off to a slow start and still not getting the uh the benefit down the line but also other things can go wrong on your team so if you take one guy who’s bad and suddenly a few other key guys get hurt you have to be able to weather that storm somehow and you’re probably going to end up dropping the guy that you were squatting on giving you zeros anyway so for me in head-to-head that’s that’s a hard no I I need if I’m going to stash somebody it has to be what I like to refer to as an active stash someone who’s doing something at least mildly beneficial right now uh and then the hope that that sort of graduates over time the guy that fits I agree because if you’re in head-to-head and it’s a standard format it’s 10 103 active bench split they’re all active like you don’t have that ability like you’ve got to be in a spot either way you’ve got games caps you’re in Roto you’ve got large benches or you’re just cooking everybody and you’re so much better than everybody else you got no injuries and you’re just winning every week that easily the guy that I look at is that option that sort of fits or slides through that that zone to me is someone like juice McBride right who’s providing not really 12 team value like it’s not quite there it’s sort of outside that area but it’s he’s doing something he might get you 10 points and four rebound bounds and 2 and a half assists and a steel and 1.5 thes which is not that good right in a vacuum you look at that and go like whatever I can find that somewhere else but if Brunson Bridges anobi or Hart get injured the man’s playing 40 minutes and he’s a top 60 guy right so he’s giving you backend value at the moment which is like it’s not great like it’s not it’s in a vacuum it’s not usable like you’d rather try Gary traner Tavis K pop any other of these [ __ ] kickers around like you’d rather get one of those guys in but he’s got that there plus the easy like multi-pronged Pathway to blow up for 2 weeks 3 weeks whatever it is but he’s not giving you zeros now so that’s like that’s a a stash that’s I think you use the term active stash so he’s doing something right it’s not quite what you want and you wouldn’t want to have three of those guys on your team not that three of those guys necessarily exist but there’s just a little bit enough there where you go hm I like it and let’s see what else happens yeah I I lean and then if if like the Blazers front court is an interesting one I know clingan’s out with the the for a bit here a few more weeks yet but and Robert Williams has a concussion but before that was the case you’re sort of sitting on like oh if Robert Williams gets traded if DeAndre Aiden gets moved or shut down there’s a path for some of these guys to go from doing a little to a lot if you want to look at you know the Wizards entire roster kind of hits this mold of you know Alex SAR who’s not really good enough right now but you know that it’s going to grow over time bub Carrington same kind of thing and you see these glimpses of it as well but it can’t be someone who’s just doing nothing we and like there’s fun in that um prior to Brooklyn resting everyone Noah Clowney would probably be a player that was basically doing nothing that we all are like yeah but if they move like four guys which they might by the All-Star break you just can’t take the zeros until them right now it might not be a zero if he can be healthy when they’re rotating five other bodies out but I think everybody gets the the general idea on you got to get something while while you’re waiting for the something more we going to come back and talk about this question I’ll put it up on the screen so people can see and I’ll tell you about it but this guy is screamed at us to discuss Kawai please so um have a think about Kawai he says how many games do you expect him to play we’ll come back and talk about that and other things that people scream at us in a second but today’s episode is brought to you by Robin Hood with Robin Hood gold you do not need a silver spoon to eat up all of the financial favors of the 1% Robin Hood gold allows others to get the rates and the perks usually reserved for The High Society now the resourceful individual with Robin Hood gold can earn the very liberal rate of 4.25% apy on uninvested cash and be rewarded with a handsome 3% 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knock off another let’s call it 10 games that gives us 50ish 52 left he’ll rest every backtack the rest of the way which I haven’t tabulated how many it’ll be January February March and April but I’ll ballpark it and call it like eight or nine um so best case scenario for kawhai is probably around 40 to 45 more reasonable would be probably between 35 to 45 um so I’ll just take the midpoint I’m gonna say 40 for Kawhi Leonard um I I not to be rude I I I don’t care like I I I don’t know how many he’s going to play I don’t think it’s going to be enough and I just I don’t care like I even if he comes back down I’m not not confident that it’s going to last I’m worried about the swelling issues that embiid has it’s a very very similar scenario we’ve seen the multiple knee surgeries same knee same meniscus there’s no cushioning left in that knee and the swelling was part of the reason why he didn’t play through the playoffs and another surgery ensued there like I just wouldn’t bother with it honestly I think it’s going to be um on and off and continual uh frustrations with him all season and that’s yeah that’s I’m just I’m just interested in it MB says Tatum is the number one fantasy player this [ __ ] A lot of people missed it yeah including you cuz he isn’t um let’s go through to this next one Migo says should we be concerned with Emanuel Quickly’s bad start and ongoing elbow injury he hasn’t had a bad start he just hasn’t played so ignore that part of it but how concerned are you with quickly having your getting close to Tommy John surgery here yeah I mean that was that’s a weird one you don’t see that one with basketball all that often I thought I think I saw your Tweet after it went down we were like yeah he probably should stop focusing on the curveball so much SL just thr heat um yeah I don’t know I don’t know this is a weird one this is like semi Uncharted Territory I’m going to say that I’m not that worried about it I’m assuming when he comes back he’ll probably be okay because it is a relatively unusual thing um certainly for basketball players you’d prefer that it’s an arm issue over core or legs yep uh so I would say low I’m low level concerned I’m obviously not happy with the way things have gone so far but in terms of like what the future may hold I think he’ll be okay Amir Al husseini says what is the deal with paj jimsky are we holding well that’s a really interesting question of you because are we holding suggest you’ve been holding all the way through which you should not have been he should have been dropped weeks and weeks and weeks ago now the Situation’s a little different because they are cutting the rotation back um Melton’s out but that didn’t impact psky but now Steph is out so they actually don’t have like point guards there’s nobody there it’s him and it’s old mate Pat Spencer like that’s who is there as a point guard so I have you been holding him God I hope not have you grab have you have you grabbed him now like sure like let’s see what happens but like I’m going to I’ll speak for you Dan you can interject if this is wrong I’m pretty sure your confidence is all that high that it’s going to maintain all the season but this is what we do at this point in the season or any point in the season we okay Melton’s out Steph’s out he moved back into the starting lineup Lindy wat’s got cut out of the rotation entirely he’s got H passes to cash in I don’t know what he’s up to but you can go and just see what happens you can try it and then like if he goes and plays 23 minutes every night then you see you say see you later again like this is not like this High upside wow what if what if it hits and it’s top 50 and it’s all going to come together it’s like oh maybe he’s the 100th best player like maybe best case like I don’t know but that’s useful if it works and the thing the things are in line for it to work at the moment that doesn’t mean that it does work and that’s where we take cracks at things and you people will you criticize things when I say hey you know what lamelo ball and TR man I’m adding V MIT everywhere right I’ll see what happens like go that didn’t work cool it didn’t for it worked in one game and it didn’t in the next one and I don’t know what happens but it’s about like these things line up let’s see where it goes it might I might get a week I might get two games I might get two weeks I I know there’s no long-term value in it but we just try it out and we just see where it goes because the things sort of add up at this very point in time and one thing that’s really wild if you look at Fantasy Basketball you go back and look at anything we might have discussed seven days ago and you go man why do we man we actually talked about adding Alfred Peyton Bros out here like putting the fries in the bag right now like what are we doing like we we actually like had these chats and that’s how quickly things can change yeah I um listen I I agree wholeheartedly with everything that you’ve said and I have and it and it sort of like set off a rant in my brain so I’m gonna blow some of our very valuable time on a rant uh I it was it’s that same thing where I don’t know why followers listeners whatever get so mad when one of these types of pickups doesn’t work out because they’re all fairly speculative and we have to use I like just over the last two decades the term speculative ad is become sort of nomenclature and I use it I’m guilty of it but like almost all of these are speculative ads and I had one I was like oh I want to go grab Chris Dunn when he moved into the starting lineup historically when he has a starting job assists steals it’s kind of a cool combination because his percentages are generally good and he crapped himself it happens it happens regularly and someone was in my mentions just like you’re an idiot I told you this and I was like whoa dude this is gonna this was going to be like your 11th best player we’re talking about right now relax everyone if we didn’t do this what the hell would we do the entire season this is the fun part pickup guys drop guys most of them 49 out of 50 of them are going to be crap but you just you got to keep doing it or you’re not going to get that 50th one and then you’re just going to sit on four or five crap guys the whole year anyway I’ve got a question um here from uh from Josh Lloyd Dan and it it comes in and I ask you have you he’s a [ __ ] this the question is like we we have this and you’ll hear people talk about it whether they’re fantasy managers or analysts or whatever and they’ll be like yeah I think you just got to hold on here and then because the guy has like a four week something to see and I knew we had to hold and now this guy’s rolling and then he’s cooked again but overall D I think that we at times get too like caught up in in holding on to guys because the differences between like the guy that’s 80th for two weeks and then the guy that’s 150th is it’s nothing like it’s not that big and we like wait and wait and go like well if you just hold and then this will come good and then what if you wait for this like it just most of the time that that doesn’t work and like that I guess that contradicts slightly my juice McBride Point earlier but that’s you that’s but that’s but that’s a very different situations you’ve got to be in a spot where you’re actually good and there’s nothing else going wrong with your team and you and you’ve got the ability to sit and wait on that but if you don’t like this idea of like holding on to but just just wait can Tavis cor pop will get better like okay maybe who cares like it does that doesn’t matter that much and I think we’re getting a little bit of that at the moment people are reacting differently to this and you have that idea of like Jared McCain and doton connect right who were the hot pickups cuz they had a million usage and shot 58% from the field and now they’ve called off because they don’t do anything else in their game and like people go but just wait they they’re all guns they’re going to be inconsistent yeah cool I don’t care if they’re inconsistent that’s actually part of the point here and if they drop them and they get good again that’s okay cuz then the next guy will come up and the next guy will come up and the next guy will come up and I think we focus a little bit too much on that like or but what if what if what if I drop and then he becomes like above mediocre then you’ve got a very good filler level player I and I don’t know do you do you like that term I’ve been trying to get it to stick a little bit filler guys I think I I think I can’t remember what I used to call I think just like like who cares like just whatever yeah who cares guys it’s between like 110 and 150 and they’re all exactly the same and most of these guys we talk about end up on the full season Arc in that territory there’s very few guys after the first like two three games of the year that actually emerge and are better than filler level for an entire season so I guess my assessment on what you’re talking about is it’s like probably 30% Pride because like we don’t want to admit that something that we thought was going to happen didn’t happen and when you’re on this side of the fence for as long as you’ve been and then I’m some number of years shorter than that like you get used to getting [ __ ] right wrong um so at some point you’re like yeah I got that one wrong like drop this guy let’s go do something else that’s fun um and the other part is you want to try to reserve those moments for the the rare guys that you think might actually be above that filler level and like it’d be crummy of us to answer everybody’s question by just saying it doesn’t matter but a lot of times the answer is it doesn’t matter like it probably doesn’t matter whaty you’re rotating in sounds it might sound like crummy to answer that question but I I think that’s I I think it’s like educational in a way because like that you have to have more of that mindset of like like whatever it’ll be okay either way like I can’t actually definitively tell you either way on this one so like to make a choice you deal with whatever which way it ends up if it’s right it’s right if it’s wrong it’s wrong there’s no definitive answer on this and we know there’s no definitive um answer on this sort of stuff so that’s why we go okay we we’ll see what happens we’ll see where it goes and we make that uh decision from there we are going to come back we’re going to talk about more stuff I don’t have any interesting questions to um to pop up for you to think about as we get back to but we’ll get back there soon don’t worry Dan we we’ll come back with more so get you questions in but today’s episode is brought to you by fan juel Sportsbook get ready to tackle all of the NFL action with Fel which is America’s number one sports work you can bet five bucks you can win your first $5 bet and you can get $150 in bonus bets the Fel Sports work app gives you everything that you need to place those live bets on the NFL you can be sitting around with the fellas watching a game things happen you I go hang on guys I’m going to place a live bet in the middle of this game you open it up and they go don’t you need secondary apps to check the live stats and live playby plays cuz that’s definitely a conversation that people have had before you go no no no no it’s all there one spot on the F go tell me again how is that spelled f a n duu e l is how you say Fel and look at that it’s all the one place and they go man you have really discovered something awesome there and he say I have and it is the fangel Sportsbook app so go ahead and get to fel.com and get started with $150 in bonus bet if you win your first $5 bet that is fel.com never waste a hunch and make every moment war with Fel an official Sports partner of the NFL and don’t forget to gamble responsibly all right all right what are we going to talk about here D I saw someone ask this question now I can’t actually find it on my little list of questions to put up but it was about should be more worried about embiid missing time due to his knee or the personal issue uh me exactly 100% the I I I’m understanding the personal issue is a um is a childbirth so yeah I don’t think you need to be worried about that um it’s very clearly the knee and I would say like 99.9% of the time the answer is the injury I’m going to say the majority of people didn’t even know there was a personal issue going on so yeah it’s it’s really really not that uh it’s not that much of an issue the knee is the problem the knee is going to continue to be a problem I know we’ve we’ve been on opposite sides of this D cuz you’ve been like okay I think it’s actually a Buy Low on embiid and I’m not interested I do not want him at all people say well what about if I traded you bronny James okay cool thanks for an argument that doesn’t actually mean anything but in general I just don’t want him I I don’t want the headache for it like I don’t want to deal with him at all on my team because I was very very staunch on this to begin the season as well I am not touching him in the first round I will not draft Jo and bid in the first round because I believe that his knees are done and so far that has worked out for me so I’m not going to take him on now like if you gave me the 110th best player who is I’m trying to think of someone that’s useless that you could throw at me right now to be that like yonis fanun it’s like okay let’s see because I actually don’t care if I’ve got valent Tunis on my team or not um but yeah I’m not interested have you changed your tune here on MB do you still like buying low and interested in what he’s goingon to be yeah I mean I think I I I probably should specify more like games cap versus head-to-head side the price tag adjusts there and it’ll cost more to get him in a games cap situation I just think you can get him for somebody who’s like fifth sixth seventh round and I’m still okay with that because those guys I mean by and large obviously there’s some guys in there that are you know super polarizing stat set types like you know Trey young is what Trey young is ranked 63rd but that’s heavily because of field goal and turnover so I’m not counting him as a sixth rounder but there are guys in that range that are just kind of like yeah they’re okay and I would definitely give those guys up to take a shot on Joel embiid um I’m not going to give up like a third rounder because I have no idea when this dude’s going to play but I don’t want to say that sixth rounders are replaceable but if suddenly you just lost yours for the rest of the season your team would probably still be fine and that’s why I think that’s an okay price to pay I don’t know if that makes sense or not yeah it it it does um I would go a little bit low on that but the general the general principle of it yeah I gu now everyone seems to be flooding the chat here with Mark Williams question so it’s like when [ __ ] guys um like when do I think the Min restriction will end do I think that he will replace Nick Richards in the starting lineup what’s his projection like everyone’s asking million questions here on Mark Williams the thing with Mark Williams is we don’t know Dan I I am very confident that the fact that Charlotte still wants him to be the starting center Nick Richards for those you una aware he like already 27 as well like he’s not a young player he’s been very good here and they’re going to be really cautious with Mark Williams but I don’t like this is obviously been a long absence through multiple injuries for Williams I don’t know how long it’s going to last I’m going to suggest it’s going to last a little bit of time here for him to get back to to Norm but I think overall their plan is still yes he will replace Nick Richards in the starting lineup and he will play 26 minutes at some point I just don’t know when do you have any disagreements on that none I just think from like a mental standpoint if you’re a fantasy manager just set a clock for 2025 New Year’s Day 2025 and if Mark Williams is still not doing stuff by then then you can start to worry but between now and then just assume it’s going to be a painful god- aful slow ramp up uh and and treat him like he’s still injured yep and that the frustrating part with players like that and that’s going to tie into the guy that I’ve got on the thumbnail here is Chris Middleton right is that once they’re back it’s going to be a slow ramp up but you can’t have them in your I slot during this time and that’s why when these guys come in and like we might end up getting this wrong on Chris poring cuz I didn’t think he’d be back now Nord I think he’d be playing 30 minut in his third game of the season that’s like outrageous to me that is happening but I don’t want to take someone who’s injured to begin the season um in in a lot of cases because then when they come back and as long as it extends out then they come back and it’s a slower ramp up and then you don’t have them in that Isa and the the 200th rank player for the next four weeks or so and you might not be in a position to deal with that in week seven so you might have just been able to activate Chris Middleton today as he’s returning but like what’s he going to when’s he going to hit 30 minutes like the playoffs I don’t know but if he had a return earned on opening night or 3 days into the season he’d be rolling at 30 minutes already now easily and there are risks associated with that when you’re taking those guys as soon as someone gets injured in the preseason is not there to start the year then I drop them down immediately if they injured the season before I don’t care right that doesn’t really bother me in the slightest as a general rule outside of the very specific examples I’ve set out with embiid and Kawai but like as soon as someone gets hurt like Williams or or or Middleton’s going to miss I’m that’s it they’re dropping 30 40 spots and I’m done with that cuz I that every week that you miss adds on to how long it takes to come back obviously but like then the rehab extends further as well yeah I got no I have no objection to that my don’t draft injured players is like my number one tenant in all of fantasy basketball yes um it’s it’s a it’s a mess there’s like one example ever and I guess porzingis probably falls into that now but he’s gonna miss a ton of games yeah because he’s por sing also I mean obviously for games capap he’s going to be outstanding the rest of the way but he’s not like done being a headache just because he’s back uh I feel I feel like it was Russell Westbrook like seven years or eight years ago or something where he was supposed to be out for five weeks and he came back in four days that’s the one example in my brain and admittedly a lot of stuff in my brain has been washed out by there was a good jar Jackson one too by the way remember that one where he’s going to be out for like three months and he was back in like three weeks and then block three shots a game out of nowhere after the season before when they kept pushing him back a week at a time every week when you go I’m not dealing with this [ __ ] anymore um but that crap happens and that just enable it’s like an enabler so then everybody’s going to be like Oh I’m going I’m going to draft this injured player for the next 17 years because it’s gonna work out like that one time it did with JJJ and it just it just never does LESA says the longer that it lasts the more that Nick Richards is role will be solidifi I don’t believe that at all I think you’re overrating how good Nick Richards actually is um and yeah he’s fine but I think yeah you’re overrating that part of it um Andre says are you concerned about Trea ailles either short or long term no cuz he’s totally healthy the NBA told me that faking the injury and that he was fine to play so he’s there’s nothing wrong with these Achilles they find them $100,000 and that independent doctor could definitely not be working on the NBA’s agenda to force someone to play when they’re injured there’s no way that’s true so he’s 100% healthy and they’re obviously lying about this injury so I’m actually okay with it Dan what do you think that weird I don’t it was it was not weird it was absolutely embarrassingly stupid from the league and I cannot believe they did that and I’ll continue to roast them for it it is so dangerously disrespectful not even dis it’s just d it sets a terrible precedent you do that once like okay what about every other player who’s out do we get an investigation from an independent doctor cuz Jason Tatum didn’t play on Wednesday where’s that independent investigation which by the way he clearly wasn’t injured they just had five games in seven nights so he’s sitting out any investigation there we’re going to find him whereas Trey could barely do anything he’s hampered every single game here but we’re got to find him and we and we’re going to cast aspersions on people and their ability to play and their health and the medical stuff it’s absolutely complete garbage and the thing that they think they’re trying to solve they make it worse by doing that they then cuz then they cast out on every single situation well the NBA what if they yeah they they told us that the you guys fake injuries it’s embarrassing I can’t believe they did it how how was they how were they able to assess it retroactively is what I’d want like was he assessed that night and then like some doctor was like yeah he could have gone and then they waited and then they were like oh we’re gonna do this investigation and then we’re gonna go back to what some Doc like I I gotta put on a a number of layers of tinfoil hats to figure out any way that this makes sense other than the only thing that made sense in my mind was that Trey young like went to an independent doctor and was like I wanted to play tonight and the Hawks didn’t let me and then like please don’t tell anyone I told you this how else could this make any I mean I’m not saying that that’s what happened but like I don’t understand how an independent doctor could retroactively rule that he was fine doesn’t make any sense uh I agree I agree um there was an interesting question here that a few people have chucked stuff through here Joon a Ripley I just use your one he says what do we do with herb because herb Jones is returning today so people are having some conflicting thoughts about what to do with herb Jones and I’ll quickly just put this part of it out Dan if you’re in a point I don’t think you bother what’s what for like this is you’re talking waiver wire churn garbage in a points leag this is he’s not that good in that scenario he’ll get you he’s he’s a steel specialist he gets some out of position blocks before his injury he wasn’t playing very well anyway um his numbers are always going to be deflated by low turnovers he’s had a really good shooting season last season but I’m still not convinced he’s a good shooter I think that he should be rosted but I think that there are situations in which he gets overrated yeah points League that’s a no um because his value is so tied up in the in the non easyto acquire counting stats you need steals you need blocks you need uh good percentages which he got last year I’m I’m adding him um basically on the notion that the Pelicans will never be fully healthy and so I think there’s going to be just a little bit more for him to do uh so I will lean into that side and again like this probably ties back into one of those first questions which is like what happens if he doesn’t pan out but he is one of the very few names that’s on Waiver Wires right now that has actually been inside the top like 85 before and if you can find a seventh rounder on your wire you give them a look at the very least someone moving into likely pretty good minutes um I don’t imagine his ramp up is going to take all that long um so this is the kind of guy that I would very happily in nine cat give a look and see how it goes because you know it’s that or picking up an injury replacement guy which is fine that dude might be better in the short term but that’s a guy you know you’re going to drop in five days so take a shot on somebody that might be able to give you value for a couple of months instead of a couple of days I to me that’s the argument for herb um yeah look I think that’s a kind I think your expectations just have to be luck to scores nine points a game and maybe the percentages are weird and you’re looking at defensive stats and they’ll come and that’s all cool and then we still don’t know what happens when players return if players return but that’s a while away so yeah points leagues don’t worry about it category leagues yes uh Thrift Beast says can you explain why I called Johnny Fury the dildo yeah I can actually um it’s CU in college he um he replaced dick and that’s uh probably all you need to know about that um all right last one Dan cold frostbite says do I trust Kevin Durant in points leagues for the rest of the season I got offered him for Pascal sakam so this is Durant’s second injury of the Year carf injury and now an ankle injury do you trust Kevin Durant for the rest of the season I do actually and if and if I can get him for somebody who’s although I don’t have the points League rankings in front of me I’m assuming KD has a pretty good gap on a per game side uh over seaka not massive but uh also not negligible uh he’s old I get it um but I’m not super worried about it I mean ankle injuries happen the calf one was the one I was more concerned about and he seems to be fine coming back from that uh everybody in the NBA turns their ankle old or young um so no I’m good with it um I think I would probably take that uh if you can let it dangle out there for a few days just maybe get a little closer to a KD return but this is the perfect time to trade for a guy who’s banged up because everybody in the NBA has like four games over the next two weeks uh so you barely miss any action there either um so I’m gonna go with yes on this one I’m good with it um interesting because I do I trust Kevin dur no I didn’t trust him before the season because you I’m trying to put the probabilities together of a 37y old 36y old man who played 37 minutes a night in 75 games the year before who’s got a history of lower body injuries that I’m a little bit worried about those injuries and we’ve had two of them in six weeks so I I’m I’m a little bit cautious about yeah the ankle sprain doesn’t worry me he’s not going to be out long term but you’re right I off the top of my head I actually don’t know the gap between these two guys but I avoided Kevin Durant because I was very worried about how his minutes would look and H actually played him a lot tons of minutes as I won say it’s worked out particularly well for him by doing that but that’s what he did and we’ll see whether he does that when he comes back but that is two injuries in six weeks um but yeah so I’m uh I’m I’m interested to see what happens but I would not be wanting to take on Kevin Durant at this point because that like again that that leans into some of the stuff that I faded on him in the preseason and so far yeah don’t really see much changing there in that sense can I ask a question or do you have One queued up on no go this is you asked me this is this is gonna be the last one Dan let’s drop drop it in oh okay um so this one comes back to the idea of statistical regression yep and I know you and I both take tons of heat from folks who were just like no this is what a player is right now and it doesn’t have to be about voo I just knew that one would like would get would get social media fired up um why do you think and I don’t actually have a good answer to this but why do you think people leave a a new set of data after like 15 games of seeing it why is that seemingly the marker where everybody’s like well I guess this is just what this guy is now but after like five games people are like no this is this is obviously just a bump why is it that 15 is suddenly enough for people and then they hate us when we say that it’s still not why is that I’m sure there are like many sort of psychological uh I love the psychological crap I’m sure I’m sure there many reasons that endowment effects and sunk cost fallacies and all whatever all that sort of stuff is right that that associated with that but like because you’ve just seen it happen the estimation is that well I saw it happen so this is therefore what this player now is and now it’s been you know it’s 20% of the Season okay and it’s like 0.05% of a career and we’ve we’ve seen these things and there that’s not to say that someone can’t improve or someone can’t be or get worse or all that stuff is possible but the likelihood and we always we have to try and play the probabilities with all of this stuff down is that the likelihood is that that it doesn’t stick and we’re looking back at years and years and years and years of data and then you often will have people have their prior try and get confirmed I’m sure we’re guilty of this as well we can we just use the V example and the reason that I talk about v a lot is that like if I end up getting something wrong and I might end up getting F wrong this season I don’t sit there and go well got it wrong yep therefore I’m all in on him next season or or I’m definitely not touching this guy ever again I like to go go why like okay so just saying that it happened doesn’t mean anything like why why did I get that wrong what was the reason here so I can figure that out for the next time and part of my assessment was V was there a with people who now and I’ve had this argument with people they go well you see it’s obvious because now that um dear’s gone he’s the second offensive option he’s he’s killing yeah but he’s actually taking fewer shots and he’s usage is lower than last season so it’s got literally nothing to do with that but because the rank looks better it’s well there’s no D rozan so therefore he’s moved up the pecking order and it’s all have that’s not the reason he’s just shooting 20% better from three and he’s the fourth best mid-range shooter in the entire NBA and I don’t believe that’s going to stick and if it does stick I’ll look at and go huh all right why is it sticking and honestly I cannot find a reason he’s not taking more unguarded shots he’s not doing any of those things I cannot figure out it just feels like it’s a hot streak that’s continuing and yeah so far like me saying that I wouldn’t take vu in the top 50 I think I drafted him at 60 in one league and I’m I’m I’m very happy with the results that I’m getting out of him because that’s that’s fine but every indicator suggests that he’s probably not going to hold there usage is down his free throw rate is still really low his rebounds are almost exactly the same his block rate is the same he’s all that stuff is exactly the same as it’s been he’s minutes or lower this season than last season he’s just hitting 50% of each each threes and 58% overall and it will fall at some point but we just don’t know when and I think that’s that’s a part of that discussion with any player whether they’re exceeding or well below their numbers tyres Halbert another one like then I’m not going to sit here and say well I’ve seen halberton do this for 200 games therefore these 20 games where he can’t shoot means that he can’t shoot anymore that doesn’t make sense to me no it’s nonsense and the vo thing is hilarious and and I like I I didn’t I only brought him up because I I knew that it would get the the masses fired up but uh it’s really it’s remarkable how that like that recency bias kicks in and then we suggest things like sell High I know I think you and I have both said sell high on V I don’t know exactly what you can get for him right now that obviously is the the second half of that equation uh but like to to sort of connect the pieces on all of it it it’s so fascinating to me that people just see a thing and then it has to be true and then nothing else makes sense and then if somebody does pull off a sell high for Vu then their league gets called the taco league so there’s no there’s no winning in all of this I just think it I just think this part of it is is so funny and also really interesting uh to try to figure out like what does it take to convince a person that a player is something new versus something old um yeah I mean his effective field goal percent this year is is what 66 or something like that it’s and his career it’s 53 I much farther you need to go on that one that’s literally that’s it that’s that’s the difference in that one and you go okay well how real is that I think what I this all back in not even specifically devou like when I look at this and we well end it here cuz some people are saying there’s some audio issues and I don’t know what it is cuz everything sounds clear to me so I’m not really sure what’s going on there so I apologies for that if there is audio problems cuz everything everything looks right on this end but the the the major thing with this stand is that what do I look at I look at role like is your role different are you playing more minutes for a particular particular reason are you taking more shots are you taking different shots and if the answer to those things is no and it’s all the same stuff then I just go well it’s it’s shooting variants and yeah it shooting variant might last a year that is possible and we never know when it’s going to happen but we know what is going on at the moment and that’s the thing that I like to pay attention to is like what has what has changed to led us to this more shots more minutes different shots if the answer there is no no no I go okay well it’s probably just randomness beautiful that answered my question I’m a satisfied customer fantastic well if anyone else wants to be satisfied by Dan where can they go and uh where can they go and where can they go and find you well it’s stall 2 um it’s the guest yeah um I wanted to do the the Dumb and Dumber bit um with the cbass uh at Dan bers on Twitter at old man squad on Blue Sky um and old man squad on on the YouTubes as well I I do Yammer I shout into the void it’s something that we’ve become very accustomed to the void very rarely talks back so that’s also good um thanks so much for having me by the way also just to throw that at the end and and hopefully everybody will find me on one of the places where I’m far too active yeah go and uh go and talk to to Dan over on those social sites and these Twitter fingers and you get in there and abuse him in the uh in the replies we need to keep that abuse spread around as much as possible Dan thank you for uh for coming on and answering a bunch of fantasy questions with me my pleasure every damn time thank you again guys that will bring us to the end of our little mailbag show so you’re great to have Dan on and chatting about fantasy and thank you to you guys for throwing the questions in sorry about whatever audio issues were going on someone said they just refreshed the video and it fixed up so yeah I’m not really sure what it was and I’m sure if you go to watch this back it’ll be okay but I do apologize and don’t know what would happen there anyway we’re done for the show subscribe and follow and all that sort of stuff and again remember just remember that you you have done you do good things like we all do good things keep pulling people up and tell them they’re doing good things as well it is important it does help you out it does help our overall State of Mind out and again just don’t always be on the negative side of things guys we had done here thank you so much for listening everyone see you [Music]

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