📅 Published on: 2024-12-02 18:00:09
⏱ Duration: 00:23:31 (1411 seconds)
👀 Views: 1494 | 👍 Likes: 90
📝 Video Description:
Giants reportedly are interested in signing RHP Corbin Burnes (Feinsand)
🎙 Channel: Even Year Dynasty Show
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corbin burnes,sf giants,san francisco giants,giants baseball,sf giants rumors
🕵️♂️ Transcript:
welcome back to another episode of the even your Dynasty show I hope everybody had a Happy Thanksgiving great time with the family all that good stuff uh obviously we only put out one video last week due to the holiday now you guys made it my most viewed video ever on this channel by a large margin it’s up over 4,000 views I think it’s almost doubled up my next highest viewed video from the past so I appreciate you guys maybe I got a rant a little more often hope you enjoyed that um but we’re gonna get back at it we’re going to start having regular content again and we’re going to bring the live shows back this week for sure Friday um working on some other stuff I don’t know when we’ll have confirmation or anything and what days those might fall on but we will keep you guys updated um we’re today we’re going to talk a bit about Corbin Burns uh mark finan from mlb.com linked him to the Giants talking about their interest uh it makes sense that the Giants are interested in Corbin Burns Innings eater you look at what you know Sabian and Evans valued previously it was a lot of guys that eat up Innings posie I would imagine kind of places a value on that it’s something I value personally as well um I do find that important it’s not the most important thing but I think it is a very important thing for pitchers or for starters to do um for the overall big picture of winning especially when you are going to be pretty reliant on your Bullpen you want to have at least a few guys eating up a ton of innings so your bullpen can be at its best uh throughout the season so I can understand that you know Zach man manasian was in Milwaukee when they drafted Corbin Burns back in 2016 so there are some links there um and then he you know we’re going to talk about kind of the fit overall with San Francisco in the park and everything and kind of where the short-term impact could be and the long term and then I’ll give kind of my thoughts on you know is this somebody worth pursuing and worth handing a you know extremely large contract to so going into 2025 he’s going to be going into his age 30 season MLB trade rumors estimates his you know contract that he’ll receive at about seven years 200 million uh they’re pretty good usually as far as at least average value of the contracts um obviously they were a bit off on Snell on the overall deal they had projected him at three for 105 he got five for 182 now the aav was only about a $1.4 million difference and you know we could go down the rabbit hole of deferrals but I’m not going to I’m not really going to go into that um but you know they have them at seven year Burns at seven years 200 million which you know in my head I think that’s like 28 point something million aav uh I do think after Snell’s deal it’s probably pretty safe to bet that burns is going to get at least a 30 million aav so I’d maybe bump that up to seven for 210 um and that would take him from his age 30 through age 36 Seasons uh so there is some risk there uh now this is a guy in 2024 194 Innings 2.92 erra 1.1 whip all that’s great the field independent pitching for those that like those things 3.55 uh so he you know is he beat that performance by a little bit 3.7 War uh some things that I think are important for Oracle 48.8 % ground ball percentage 81st percentile especially with the way the Giants are talking about building the team around pitching and defense uh with Chapman already in place and them looking at guys like Snell or like uh hon Kim you can tell they’re trying to bulk up the infield defense especially up the middle um so a guy that gets the ball on the ground a lot that’s a good thing 23.1% strikeout rate it’s only 51st percentile that’s been kind of dropping year after year but he does a good job of limiting base runners 6.1 % walk rate which is 80th percentile and he limits hard contact 31.6% which was 95th percentile on the hard hit percentage um so the good I mean this is a guy that that part’s really easy he’s just a really good pitcher that has eaten up innings for years his last five years he’s finished top eight in the sa Young Award race including winning it in 2021 uh his ra over the last 5 years 2. .11 2.43 2.94 3.39 and 2.92 so we had the the down year in 2023 where he still you know had a sub three4 ER at the end of the year and still struck out 200 hitters um er or sorry his Innings pitched I’m gonna throw out the covid year in 2020 but his last four years he’s thrown 167 Innings 202 Innings 193 and 2/3 Innings 194 point or in the third Innings his last season um you know the good limits the walks as I kind of mentioned and he also keeps the ball in the yard pretty well um walks 3.6 1.8 and this is per nine 2.3 3.1 2.2 over the last five years home runs per nine 0.3 and 0.4 that that was his sa young year and then he’s averaged right on one home run per nine over his last um three seasons and his whip year in and year out uh pretty you know it’s always really pretty Elite for starting pitcher 1.022 0.94 0.965 1.69 1.96 so that is trending kind of the wrong way the last few years but it’s still really dominant so lot of good there um you know basically no matter whatever you know what metric or statistic you look as far as season counting stats Burns is constantly one of the best pitchers in baseball so I’m definitely not going to Discount that there there is definit value in that I think with the Innings pitched you know being as strong as it is assuming Health um I do think he does a better job of or or he would get you closer to the playoffs than a Blake Snell would now my counter to that is I would say Blake Snell I would rather have in a playoff game pitch because I think at at his best Blake Snell is shown to be possibly the best pitcher in baseball or like top two or three I feel like Burns over a long period of time is going to be the more valuable player and there’s a reason why teams are going to be more willing to give Corbin Burns a long-term deal and yes part of that is age he’s two years younger than Blake Snell or he might actually be like two and a half years younger than Snell but he’s a couple years younger than Blake Snell so that’s part of it but you know part of it is the reliability he’s been very healthy in his career you look at his total starts you know 32 in 2019 obviously he was terrible that year but then his last four full seasons 28 33 32 32 so he’s extremely reliable and extremely durable now that’s a lot of mileage on that arm we’ll see if that you know sustains over a longterm contract if that’s what he you know assuming that’s what he gets and especially if the Giants give it we’re going to be really watching him under a microscope here in San Francisco but you know that that has a ton of value and I think that is more valuable over 162 Game season than what Blake Snell is going to give you but when you get to the playoffs and it’s just a one game give you know give it your best shot that’s where I think Snell has the added value and that’s why it made sense really you know frankly for La that’s why Blake Snell made more sense than Corbin Burns so I get why they went that route and unfortunately this is where when I get to the negatives we’re GNA kind of have to factor that in for the Giants um couple you know he has some Bay Area connections he went to St Mary’s he’s from Bakersfield obviously that’s not the bay area but he went to St Mary’s for college um so there’s reasons to believe that maybe he would be interested in coming back to California and he might actually be an attainable player for the Giants um another positive for him it does make it easier to stomach trading from your young pitching pile you know you have tons of young pitching whether it’s Harrison Birdsong wizen hunt um Joe Whitman Reggie Crawford’s probably not you know tradable at this time but Trevor McDonald Mason black uh Landon rup there are a ton of Young starting pitchers that are in that are going to be in double A triaa or San Francisco going into this season so there’s it gives an it makes it easier to move those guys to try and trade for the bats that you struggle to sign in free agency so maybe you turn around and you make a trade for a bold trade for a bob bashet or maybe you trade a couple of these guys and try and get a young controllable bat from another team that maybe lacks pitching you know it team like the Reds I’ve brought up in the past that yeah they just made the move for Brady singer but they have a ton of young bats they’re prettyy thin on pitching in the system team like the Cardinals decent amount of young bats pretty thin on pitching in the system so you know there are some potential trade partners for the Giants uh that and I know there’s other teams that I’m leaving out but there are some potential trade partners for the Giants that they could look to move some of these young arms to try and bring in a you know a young controllable bat or a you know Big Time bat that’s maybe nearing free agency that maybe they’re interested in trying to you know get locked up to a big extension now that there is a risk in involved in that route but you know it does make it easier to make those moves if you have Logan Webb and Corbin Burns locked up at the top of the rotation you know you can stomach that a lot easier but now getting over to some of the negatives because there are some uh one of the the first thing that jumps out is obviously we’ve noticed his his strikeout rate has gone down significantly over the previous handful years uh if you go back to 2020 it was 13.3 strikeouts per nine then 12.6 10.8 9.3 8.4 this last season in 2024 as I mentioned he was 51st percentile it strikeouts are not the be all end all for me but that is alarming when you notice that it is plummeting year after year um obviously his stuff is not quite as dominant now you might go why is it not as dominant is he losing velocity is it you know what might the case be and you look in his average velocity is still what it was pretty much five years ago like it hasn’t moved much I I’m G to look at his cutter for example his average velocity in 20121 his Sai Young year was 95.2 last season 95.3 now you look at the vertical and horizontal drop in 2021 it was 18.7 Ines of vertical drop 4.2 Ines of glov side um horizontal movement this past season 17.5 Ines of vertical drop and 2.4 Ines of glove side movement so you’ve seen a it’s got a little bit horiz little bit less horizontal break and you look at the average guys hit 237 with a 328 slug on them in 2021 this past season 251 362 slug so it’s a little bit less effective obviously from that standpoint but this is the big one that jumps out in 2021 it had a whiff rate of 33.2% and a put away percentage of 31% 2024 the whiff rate was only 19% put away 19.4% so guys have grown accustomed to his cutter and some of that is looks like he’s lost a little bit of his movement but some of that is it’s a pitch that’s more prominent around baseball now so guys aren’t you know this isn’t a unicorn pitch that he’s throwing it’s something that you know guys don’t see around the game anymore at all so they don’t know what to do with when he throws it so it’s losing some of its Effectiveness and now we’re seeing it with his usage it’s going down through it 20 52.2% in 2021 that actually Peak at 55% one year last season it was down to 45% so there are some questions when I watch you know when I look at all this with Burns of is this going to be sustainable over a long period of time or are we going to get one or two good years out of him maybe three or four I don’t know and then the last three or four years of the deal it’s just a disaster so I mean those are legitimate questions that we’re going to have to ask with a you know player like Corbin burns on the long term um now there are some good the slider uh his slider had 35.3 in you know vertical movement 7.6 horizontal back in 2021 88 milph he’s actually made it a little sharper um 36.7 in horizont uh vertical 8.3 of horizontal so added some movement on both still 87.6 miles per hour you know hitters are actually slightly better in 2024 than they were in 2021 uh but he still has a whiff rate at 46.3% it’s actually a pitch that he probably could bump his usage up and it would highly effective especially against righties um maybe he starts leaning on that a little more um than his cutter now I mean his cutter has still been super effective as a pitch overall it’s just guys are getting better against it so it’s just something to kind of monitor there and then I think the biggest negative with Corbin Burns and it’s no fault of his own but the biggest negative with Corbin Burns is for the Giants because they went over the competitive balance tax he would cost them their second their fifth round pick and a million dollars in bonus money or International bonus money for their 2026 International signing class which currently right now they’re slated to sign uh or they’re they have an agreement in place with Luis Hernandez who from everything I’ve heard is going to be Pro possibly a top three to five um you know International prospect that year you know obviously the Giants have the number one guy they have an agreement with in 2025 with huar Gonzalez Luis Hernandez is supposed to be a top three to five and he might be number one again next year so might that million dollars cost you him I don’t think they’d do it if they’re gonna you know if it’s gonna cost the guy but usually it’s probably probably safe like it didn’t losing a million dollars in bonus money didn’t impact them getting Gonzalez and they still are slated to get I think like the number 23 or 27 guy um Dee marccus from Aruba on top of gall so you know you can still have a really strong signing class and it might not that top guy but it does limit your depth on the bottom end of that which you just never know when you’re going to strike gold just a reminder to people Ronald aunia $100,000 unranked prospect that the Braves got when they you know when they signed him in the international signing period so just keep that in mind but you lose a million dollars and more importantly you’re losing a second and a fifth round pick which I’m very much not a hoard your draft picks kind of person I think you guys have all figured that out listening to Channel like I am not in that camp and I’m still pushing to sign a guy like willia adamus who I feel is a greater need at shortstop and a guy that can drive and runs in the middle of your lineup and someone that can potentially protect Bryce Eldridge down the road but giving up your draft picks for a pitcher that I I have genuine questions on whether or not it actually gets you any closer to beating the Dodgers in a short series not I’m not even talking long you know regular season you’re not catching them in the next couple years but does it actually help you beat them in 2025 2026 or 2027 when you’re assuming Corbin Burns is going to be at his best and most valuable on the contract in the next three years does it put you any closer at beating the Dodgers and I I understand all there are people out that have the belief of well you just got to get to the playoffs and see what happens or you know it’s a short series anything can happen you get there anything can happen well what what does this do for the Giants like where does it put them I mean do we think this makes him a 90 win team because I don’t I think if you I feel like realistically if we’re looking at a Corbin Burns hosong Kim off season I put them around 85 wins and maybe some young guys really take off maybe you push closer to 90 that’s like best case scenario but even then when you go to LA in in if you if you you know you you have to kind of put them in your head because you’re realistically going to have to go through them it’s like when everyone had to go through the Yankees for all those years you know the right people could say oh you don’t make moves based on the the team you might have to face that’s kind of BS you know look at what the Red Sox had to deal with in the early 2000s they absolutely made Moves knowing they were full well they were going to have to try and beat the Yankees in October and the Giants you got to you have to take an honest look in the mirror and look at the team in LA and see if you can beat them and I love Logan web and I love Corbin Burns I think they’re both great pitchers in today’s game but if we’re being honest you go to La I mean forget games three or four where you’re clearly at a disadvantage but like your best bet against La is in the shortest series possible so if you get lucky enough to face them in the division round where it’s only five games you’re assuming you’re going to throw Corbin Burns Logan web and I you know whichever in whatever order and then one of them would get game five but you’re at a clear disadvantage like massive disadvantage in games three and four and do you even have an advantage in games one two or five because you know the the Dodgers are going to throw Snell in one of those games and they’re probably goingon to throw either Otani or Yamamoto in the other one and I think it is questionable at best if you even would have an advantage in one of those games and I mean we could make a case you know I’ve heard people bring up the 2012 argument well the the Tigers had this great team well you know what the Giants lineup That year was super underrated you had the MVP in the National League you had Pablo Sandoval who was really good you had Hunter Pence who was really good you had great table Setters with Pagan and scoo like they had a really good lineup the Giants currently terrible lineup the Dodgers MVPs everywhere like you you have a worse pen than the Dodgers a worse lineup than the Dodgers worse defense than the Dodgers and the pitching would be a at best a tossup on the games that you’d be banking on winning not even the ones where you’re just at a enormous disadvantage so that that’s where to me you not to go on this tangent but that’s where to me you are significantly damaging your you know potential going forward in the future you’re going to limit your yourself as far as financials Go I mean the Giants have more money than they know what to do with so I shouldn’t really say they limit themselves financially but a 30 plus million dollar contract at the end of the year on your on your books is there and the Giants have not shown a willingness to consistently bump the payroll up to some crazy number so it is going to impact them and you know that’s there that’s going to limit you you’re taking away draft picks so it’s going to limit your you know building for the future are you going to then turn around and trade a bunch of pit starters to try and bulk up your offense that that in turn weakens your system further you know and at that point you’re basically creating a tight window for yourself to try and win and you’re not going to have the the Homegrown system to support and supplement what you’re doing you’re just making it take longer to rebuild your farm so for me personally I don’t think Burns is GNA is going to get you over the hump and unless you’re willing to go Burns and say screw all the picks and go get adamus on top of that and then make a big trade for a bat and you know whether it’s like a vlat Jr Goes super crazy and then sign him to an extension like you’re gonna have to go kind of Bonkers to even give yourself like a punchers chance against the daughters in a playoff series like that’s that’s where I’m at is it worth it to shorten your window to to try and give you this really long shot chance on going on a run or do you just kind of let a guy like Burns go elsewhere build from within understand that it’s going to take a couple years and hopefully when you can swing that door open on your window you have a great Farm you have internal young cheap internal players that you can go to free agent or trademarket or whatever to supplement to try and get you over the hump but you still have a great Farm to S you know to continue feeding into that and you can try and swing that door open and try and pull what the Dodgers have done and basically have a 10 to 20e window where you can just con constantly compete and you’re a super attractive destination for free agents and such so that’s personally the route I would go I Love Burns I think he’s awesome but I I don’t personally think this is the the time and place to go do this I understand others that you know feel like you should be trying to win every season I get it but tell me your guys thoughts like I said earlier if you do enjoy the content like the video subscribe to the channel I will try and put out updates when I have them for videos later this week uh we’ll definitely do our live show on Friday we’re gonna be doing our last giveaway we have a Patrick Bailey signed I think Bowman Prospect card uh that Ricky’s got that we’re giving away so uh come make sure you check out the channel on Friday for the live show uh you’ll have to be subscribed to the channel and drop a comment in the live chat to get entered in that and you’re going to have to be around when we do the drawing which is usually at the tail end of those shows and then we might possibly have another one this week if I do get it confirmed I’ll let you guys know um but we’re still working on that but other than that take it easy go Giants hopefully we get news soon and uh we’ll talk to you soon see you
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