📅 Published on: 2024-12-18 18:18:52

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how’s it going Yankee fans welcome back to fir side Yankees with Alex and Ryan so I know Ryan you did a live stream last night you spoke about the Cody Bellinger trade and the analysis behind it I wanted to give my take as well talk about a couple of rumors some big moves that could be upcoming for the Yankees now listen I know when we lost wotto it was like catastrophic it was doomsday Armageddon but Ryan the Yankees are put together a pretty damn good off season so far in my opinion I think there’s a world where we exit this offseason a better team a more balanced team now losing W stto is horrible the Mets got a generational Talent I’m not going to say you’re lie to you about that because that’s just the truth but this was where we we were going to see I said it from the second that soda left this is where we see if Brian Cashman is actually a good GM or not and I think so far he’s proven to make some pretty Savvy moves I mean he’s getting good players if not great players um guys like Max freed I know Cody Bellinger coming off a little bit of a Down Season but he profiles perfectly in Yankee Stadium I want to discuss that a bit but the next moves here it’s first base and it’s second base second base the the options are slim you could move jazz back there and then you could say okay well let’s go get a third baseman instead you have a little bit of Versatility in how you can address that spot in the infield but first base is interesting we’re hearing rumors of like pet Alonzo who Ryan and I do not think is a good fit in Yankee Stadium we’re hearing rumors of Paul goldm we’re going to address that I know a lot of people like hell no we are also on that boat um his statistics declining I mean look he won an MVP in 2022 the guy was once a elite offensive first baseman a solid Defender but his numbers this past season just catastrophically fell off a cliff like not even funny like he jumped off thinking he had the the squirrel suit and he forgot to he forgot to strap in like that’s how bad it was um in terms of his production so it this this has an eerily similar feeling to Josh Donaldson you know you’re you get a guy on the decline hoping he can bounce back for one or two more quality years I just don’t think that’s that’s going to happen with Paul gold all the stats suggest that he is declining at a rate that’s you can’t recover from especially with some of the uh Advanced metrics I’m sure Ryan you have a lot of data on that but looking at this Cody bager trade I know you talked about a little bit yesterday why do you think this is a good fit for the Yankees and and obviously in the Bronx specifically I think bager could turn around here and put up a 120 WRC Plus for us and if that happens I I think we would easily take that money and and not have a second thought about it yeah absolutely and Alex you know I’m gonna I’m gon I’m gonna get a little data Savvy here a little more data savvy than I mean this is something that like I think is really interesting and fun to talk about when you look at ex vo and barel rid right you you you see a player who profile is very similar like an Alex rugo right and a lot of people are going to say that see that and go you’re going to see Savant screenshots you’re going to see exit V hard hit right people going to be like oh my God this guy is just Alex rugo right um and look I completely understand being like hey I don’t want another alexo and left field offensively I want to get better especially if you’re not going to have juano 100% agree um but I think that’s an unfair comparison Alex Cody Bellinger had uh 50 5 pulled fly balls this year that was tied with Jose Altuve for the seventh most in baseball this past season and if you look at weighted on base average woba which is you know an all-encompassing offensive stat Alex while uh Jose altu was 827 uh let’s look at some of the other guys here Marcus Simeon 699 WBA ESO prady 769 Anthony sand there over a thousand WBA on his pulled fly balls look at Cody Bellinger 538 WBA his is the lowest in the top 10 in fact if you scroll down you have to get to arado at 18th to find a high pulled Fly ball guy with a lower weighted on base average in Bellinger uh and one of the differen is that you know for as average and mundane as Bellinger Barrel rates are they’re still like twice as high as uh someone like Nolan arado so you know even looking at the exit valocity Department like is he not hitting the ball hard enough in the air his exit V on pulled fly balls is 93.8 milph it’s higher than Jose Altuve it’s higher than ESO parades um it’s higher than adley Rutman it’s higher than a lot of guys right and yet he’s still uh you know not getting the produ like Nolan Aron’s at 91 right it’s 91.4 miles per hour for Nolan arado right so I feel like his is directly tied to not hitting the ball hard enough Bellinger hitting the ball hard and in the air the problem is Wrigley Field is is uh 10% worse than the league average for home runs for left-handed batters whereas Yankee Stadium is 19% better for home runs for left-handed batters right field is the GameChanger here playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium is going to change Cody Bellinger dramatically it’s kind of like how everyone’s like ESO p is going to mash in Houston Cody Bellinger is going to mash in the Bronx right it’s going to work in the Bronx that profile I was kind of shocked to see how often he pulled his fly balls and you know it’s not as much even the rate like the rate at which he pulls fly balls is about 36.4% that’s high but it’s not like Jose Altuve or isach pra who gets it up to like you know 45 to 50% it’s just that he pull he hits the ball in the air so much more than everyone else he hits the ball in the air 46.1% of the time I tried to see if there was something with like his Fly ball rate his infield fly ball rate he did hit more pop-ups this year but it doesn’t explain why his home run per Fly ball rate went from 15.8 nearly 16% in his career right 141 point 14.1% the year prior to 9% this year that’s not sustainable that home run uh excuse me his infield fly ball rate actually dropped his pop-up rate was the lowest of his career since 2017 at 88.5% so he was consistently giving you know well struck balls in the air pulling these balls in the air hitting them hard 93 3.8 mph getting good distance on them I’m going to pull up the average distance he got um on a pulled Fly ball last year and uh it is 311 ft so the average Fly ball is just short of bit he almost averages a home run on every Fly ball which at Yankey Stadium it would be a home run basically on every single one of these fly balls he would have hit 20 uh no excuse me it wasn’t 311 it was no ex it was 311 feet sorry I had the wrong player uh but it is 311 ft still short of you know being a home run every time but it’s close enough and Alex you would have had 24 home runs and he played all of his games at Yankee stadium compared to 18 he hit on the season uh he had a 99 WRC plus and a 399 sling percentage at Wrigley Field to me this feels like a player who he’s kind of a fish out of water right he’s a guy pulling the ball in the air consistently uh but he’s doing it at the wrong ballpark if the Yankees can you know keep him to keep him pulling the ball in the air if he could continue to pull the ball in the air the way he did last year as you mentioned we could be looking at a 120 WRC plus and with the defense you’re going to get in either left field center field or you know if it comes down to it first base depending on what’s available on the Outfield Market uh you’re going to have a really damn good bat that you can plug in at various different positions and you know I’ve said I’m kind of opposed to him playing first base the starting first base and I still stand by that unless there’s an outfield that comes available that you know the Yankees can’t pass up on um or the you know first base Market’s truly as ludicrous as they’re painting it to be uh but it helps to have an insurance option at a position where you got a negative War last year the Yankees were atrocious at first base last year Bellinger is a significant upgrade over what they had at first base last year he’s a significant upgrade over Alex rugo and left field um you know are you where you are you back to the point in which you’re like oh yeah we’re as good as we were without Juan sto with Juan sto no I still don’t think we’re there I think most projections would agree this team’s about a win or two shy uh of that 2024 team but they’re getting there right and I think that’s kind of they’re continuing to get better now what we kind of look forward to is what they’re going to do next but overall the profile works very well at Yankee Stadium there’s a lot of pull fly balls and that should play well here yeah and if you’re unaware of the financial kind of situation what the Cubs gave us they give us $5 million 2.5 mil will account for his 2025 salary and the 2.5 mil will account for 2026 assuming he picks up his player option uh both seasons have a 26.6 million luxury tax salary so you can Roose that about 2.5 mil the Yankees are about 289 uh in terms of luxury tax estimated with arbitration and everything taken care of so they’re about at 289 million right now the final arbitration the final uh luxury tax threshold is 301 million this year so Ryan I’ll ask you this cuz I think this is really the situation at hand right now the Incas are at 280 $289 million they have about $11 million until they reach1 million until they reach the1 they don’t have a ton of money to spend until they reach that last thresold so they have to trade somebody I think they’re going to trade strowman and get rid of the 18.5 mil or at least a nice chunk of it um i’ I don’t see a path for strowman here to be a critical piece I I think that they may uh promote will Warren to being that like kind of like sixth man that that Innings eater if they need him to be um you know just have him ready to go I don’t really see a path I know cash said like I wrote it this morning every time Cashman says something good about a player he ends up trading him the next week so he just has something good to say about strowman you could basically pencil in they’re going to trade strowman soon for something even if they get $9 million back that gives you $20 million to spend that’s enough to get um like a first baseman and a second baseman VI in trade or you get Carlos Santana and trade for an infielder uh second or third baseman you can move jazz uh to one of those two spots so you know at this point in time financially Ryan there’s big moves left to be made but they might be through the the trade market at this point I I think that’s probably where we’re heading and I think the Yankees are going to exhaust trade options in candidat before they opt to sign anyone in free agency that makes me think that Yandy Diaz n Nate low and Josh Naylor are very much in play for the Yankees right now um which one of those guys do you think that’s realistic I I know right now like the financial situation they have to move one of those big contract strowmans is the most obvious one do you think that’s realistic right now because I think they they might not have a choice if they want to spend a little bit more money in free agency I actually think you’re right they very much position themselves to make a trade because they again they who did they trade that like is going to stop is Cody po holding up a Yan DS trade is Cody potit holding up a Nathaniel low trade is Cody potit holding up a Josh Naylor trade actually maybe Cody potite would have been nice to have for Josh n because the Guardians don’t have any pitching but I I doubt that they were like yeah we need Cody potit man I’m pretty sure they’d be more like a will Warren where like you know you have a young arm who has good stuff uh I I think the Yankees have all their chips in place to still make a deal uh and as you mentioned you know the financial situation yeah they’re going to have to get creative if they want to you know stay under a certain threshold um you know if they brought in uh as you mentioned a Carl Santana and then they were able to trade for a second basem I think that team is very strong depends on the second baseman of course if the second baseman is some guy who sucks you know then obviously it doesn’t help uh but you know I I think that overall this team is um this team this team has holes they they just do like it’s it’s it’s impossible to argue that they don’t have holes uh but they do have some serious um they do have some serious upgrades they did make some serious upgrades they do have a team that can win a lot of games they do have a roster that’s more complete uh than I thought it would be without stto they have done a little more than I anticipated they would be able to do um they’ve been creative Cashman as you mentioned to his credit uh he’s built a very strong run prevention team uh so far you know left field you’re going to be very strong defensively right field be very strong defensively uh Dominguez he’s fine enough in center field he is decent enough out there uh he’s got a good arm which helps um you know in the infield you need some help first base and second base that’s that’s kind of what I’m looking at right first base and second base that’s next cuz rotation sharp you got Cole freed uh rodon Schmidt heel feel very good about that Bullpen man just just bring in some random dudes who throw hard we’ll buy into all of them right Alex like I’m I’m be honest with you guys uh sometimes I don’t even know if I believe in a guy out of the bullpen but if the Yankees like I didn’t really know if I believed in Luke Weaver going into last year but once you start throwing fast balls with like 20 inches of ride I was like oh yeah sure yeah he’s mechanics are all different yep Matt Blake did his magic this guy’s gon to be a stud for us this year uh I mean Alex how much how much thought did you put into Jake cousins before he went yeah he’s probably going to be good for the Yankees right like it just just make it work you know what I mean Yankees get pictures and they’re like okay yeah this guy’s going to be a stud you’re you’re you’re better off just assuming he’s going to be good than bad um but Ryan you know okay the name will keep coming to this moment the the the moment that we’ve all been waiting for in every Fireside Yankees episode you know exactly what I’m about to say Brendon Donovan at second base dude Brandon Donovan at second base I’m trading Spencer Jones for Brendan Donovan at second base that the Cardinals could they use a corner outfielder maybe you know it I I feel I feel like the stars are aligning for the the player that we love and and covet the most um you know in this trade pool I mean look they I think it’s realistic that they trade for a first baseman and a second baseman I could see the Yankees getting a nailor or you know getting um a Nathaniel low or even aandy Diaz look YY Diaz is a club option 2026 getting older the race probably aren’t going to trade him for an arm and a leg you know what I mean like what do you think about that if you if you walk away with the YY Diaz and Brennan Donovan we’re better than we were last year in my opinion oh 100% like I I if I mean I don’t think it’s going to happen but like if we got Yanni Diaz and Brenan Donovan like I I’m buying World Series tickets we’re going back to the World Series like we’ll we’ll we’ll we’ll be considerably better than the rest of the American League I’ve talked about this on live streams I’m going to mention it again the Yankees need to be they cannot be marginally better than the rest of the American League cuz then you leave yourself susceptible to variant right we’re like you know a couple of injuries here and suddenly you’re not as good as everyone else you need to be meaningfully better than everyone else in the American League meaningfully better than everyone else and I’m going to repeat it again you need to be meaningfully better than everyone else you cannot be kind of better cannot be sort of better if you want to maximize this opportunity I apologize uh you need to be meaningfully better the Yankees have a chance to be meaningfully better I don’t know if they will be I don’t know if they’ll you know what they’ll do I can’t say for certain I know what they’re going to do but I can say for certain the Yankees have done things to get considerably better the Yankees are a considerably better team today than they were when they lost Juan SoDo uh they’ve made serious upgrades to their roster they’ve uh you know given themselves an opportunity to pitch very well to hit decent well again let’s so you know I know that projections aren’t everything you know you can underperform overperform your projections and and I like to emphasize that you know over and underperforming projections is really important uh but you know that’s something that always happen it’s just your median outcome the Yankees have 30.2 projected offensive runs that’s the third most in baseball behind the Orioles and the Mets the Mets are up by 0.4 Orioles up by about 0.9 runs so within the margin of error right Dodgers right behind me Yankees 30.1 again all within the margin of error so you know if you’re going to say well what they think the Yankees have a better line than Dodgers no because it’s defense matters in this equation as well and base running and also again it’s 0.1 projected runs right and you can any that could change tomorrow like you could rerun a projection model and get a different a completely different answer uh but the Yankees are consistently projected to be in most models one of the better offense or position player teams in baseball uh they’re sixth in uh pitching runs so they’re sixth as a pitching staff third as an offense get that gives him the third highest projected war in baseball5 behind the Braves and about 2.3 wins behind the Dodgers so the Dodgers this is kind of where we say me meaningfully better the Dodgers are meaningfully better than the Yankees the Dodgers are about two wins 2.3 wins better than the Yankees according to war that’s a considerable Gap the Yankees are about 1.2 wins better than the Orioles right the twins are in third the Rangers in the American League the Rangers are in fourth the Rangers are about four wins back from the Yankees the twins are about three War back from the Yankees so you start kind of looking past the Orioles and you go yeah no we’re meaningfully better than everyone except the Orioles right now we’re meaningfully better than these teams we’re meaningfully better than the Red Sox we’re meaningfully better than the Astros we are considerably better than the Mariners right like the Blue Jays they’re they’re in they’re not even in our sights the Rays not even really in our sights Guardians considerably better Tigers considerably better Royals considerably better so um you know I’m looking at all these teams I’m going all right the Yankees It’s kind of now they need to pull from the Orioles they need to find a way to make me say Yep this team is 100% going to win the division this year this team’s got like an 70 80% chance to win the division this year it’s a very good team on paper you know just because you’re a good team on paper obviously doesn’t mean that you’re going to be a good team in the regular season but if you’re a good team on paper and you kind of underperformed during the regular season maybe get healthy and click in the postseason we’ve seen that happen to certain teams um and you know just being good helps right uh the Yankees have made themselves meaningfully better from where they were without stto but now they need to make the second base and first base upgrades that take them over the top and maybe add a a couple of Bullpen arms that’s kind of where I’m at right you know let’s bring back Tim Hill let’s get a second base let’s get a a first baseman and you can call it an offseason and walk away saying yeah we we put together quite a freaking roster so and also with Bellinger Alex not a long-term Commitment if he’s good he’s gone you don’t pay him next year that’s 20 million $26 million off your books strowman $18 million off your books if you don’t trade him this winter that is what $4.4 million that you can take off the $44 million you can take off the book for 202 five if these players in Bellinger’s case he’s solid in strowman’s case he’s you know just traded or not here or he just they don’t use his option um which I don’t think they will then you have you know some money from Hicks I think coming off the book I think that’s $10 million man you talk about like a $50 million cut in payroll right Rizo too Rizzo right so the buy out money um try to think go their contracts yeah I think it’s like I don’t think it’s I think it’s like closer to like 8 million right let me let meble check this uh payroll payroll payroll don’t remember it could I thought I think hi 10 Rizzo six or one of those two let me see uh the middle uh let’s see I can’t okay so buy out of Ane Rizzo 6 million so that’s gone um now if you buy out Bellinger it’s 5 million so you are on the hooks for that and then Hicks it’s 1 million so it’s about 6 million oh and by the way um some that money they get back I think applies to that yes they get 2.5 million back if he kicks if it kicks in and for Stanton there’s $3 million you subtract from the PA Ro over the next 3 years because of that money like the Marlins have to now start kicking in money to the Yankees and Stan’s only got 3 years left on his deal so you’re in the we’re in the end game of Stanton’s deal the meaningfully the meaningful money we have left that’s long term is Judge and freed uh Cole and rodon are done after DJ’s off the books yeah DJ’s off the books after 26 so you’re going to have a lot of money that starts opening up over the next two to three years like Stanton L strowman Bellinger that’s a that’s a ton that’s that’s almost $100 million do right there if I’m not mistaken it’s and that’s and that’s partially why I like the idea of acquiring a first baseman because a lot of these guys only have one or two years left on their deals um and it allows you to move on and Aaron judges they’re already saying it like he’s going to move to first base at some point um you know he’ll he’ll be in rightfield maybe until what 34 35 moving to first base um where he can be everyday first baseman you don’t want a four or five year player at first base right now you don’t want to sign a contract like that I think two years Max is fine I that’s why I kind of like Yandy Diaz by the way cuz he’s under contract for 2025 and then 2026 he has a player option at 12 mil so like you get to choose if you want to extend him Bellinger is great because he’s two years Max and he profiles perfectly for Yankee Stadium uh you know this is this is kind of why I’m I’m all about trading also the the if you acquire Christian Walker he just got hit with the qualifying offer so you have to give him more draft Capital bregman’s going to cost more draft Capital than signing um you know a player like like if you go out and get Brandon Donovan and you give up Spencer Jones Ryan and you give up uh Clayton beer combination those two guys for Bren Donovan and somebody else like I I’m okay doing that because you’re not going to have to give up uh draft picks to get to uh you know go out and get a bregman because he got hit with the qualifying offer too from the Astros so those draft picks by the time let’s say that Brendan Donovan is a free agent they’re going to be all the way in dou a already and most of them are going to be pitchers because the Yankees just last year drafted what seven pitchers seven or eight pitchers they went crazy in the pitcher pool they’re like okay well a lot of our guys we have a lot of young Talent already in the majors we’ve already graduated a bunch of guys now we want to restock our pool with pitching because we have a really great pitching development program and in three or four years when we want to make another big trade and judge is aging and Cole’s probably on the outs and Stanton’s contract expiring we’re going to have a dir of controllable C controllable efficient pitching that we can trade out of and like that’s or graduate and and be and become you know talented pieces on the Yankees so I I think the Yankees are are are kind of setting themselves up longterm while also addressing their short-term needs but not locking themselves into any bad contracts right like let’s say 26 million it’s really 24 million because of the 5 million you’re getting for Bellinger 24 million for Bellinger is a good deal he’s a one year removed from being an MVP you know what I mean one year removed or well it’s a couple years ago so one year move from being a candidate and he profiles perfectly for Yankee Stadium he’s always wanted to be a Yankee said it verbally you know he wants to be in the Bronx and I think this is a guy that’s going to elevate his game because he wants to be a Yankee so you know we want players like that he actually cares about being Yankee unlike Juan SoDo who we found out just really wanted the money um you know and then that’s all to he’s allowed to do that because teams do to players all the time so I don’t have any like ill will against stto because he’s played the game the same way teams do but Bellinger genuinely wants to be here and I think that will Elevate his game I think he will care there will be passion involved um but Ryan I think I think the shortterm stuff the short-term contracts are are best for the team because they can move on and not have any bad money locked in longterm they already have a lot of bad money they have to get out from under your you kind of listen it before so I think that makes a lot of sense for us yeah I also think you know um And in regards to Bellinger and like wanting to be here I think another part of this is you know if you’re Bellinger this is the ballpark you want to be in right like this is the ballpark where like you can actually boost your stock and hit free agency and get a and get a bag and you know depending on how he plays maybe the Yankees bring him back maybe the Yankees go hey we’ll bring you back whatever now personally I think and I would agree you know we want Kyle Tucker if he’s available uh because he’s a better player uh but you know you never know what happens in free agency uh it’s going to it’ll be nice to have a contingency plan right kind of built in place uh in case you don’t get Kyle Tucker uh if of course Bellinger performs up to that caliber uh or to a caliber player where you’d like them back um it helps that you know if the Yankees again we talk about like the Cardinals like what if it’s not Brenan Donovan what if it’s more of like a Lars Nar that becomes available Lars Nar is a good player like Lars Nar would make sense for the Yankees he can get on base he can hit the ball in the air to right field like he’s a good defensive player would you like and he doesn’t let’s say he costs you will Warren right and that’s a trade that you can make right now I’m sorry like again I’ve been very adamant I don’t want Bellinger playing first base I’m suddenly a lot more opener Bellinger being my starting first Bas because L sar’s got three years of control he’s 27 years old uh 114 WRC plus last year with a 342 OBP again playing in a ballpark that doesn’t really suit him well because right field in uh St Louis is a lot deeper um he’s a guy who’s like about a three to four War player he’s probably better than what you got in the first base market right and if you it depends again all this depends on what’s available right if it’s Walker give up the qualifying offer pick uh and then give him four years like I wouldn’t do that over trading for Lars Nar I wouldn’t I love Christian Walker I and I think he’s important because he hits the ball really hard he hits home runs very important to have a player like that but I think you and I would agree that to give Christian Walker four years it will look like [ __ ] in three right at least and it could look really bad in just one year and you’ve got a guy who’s on the books until Cole’s off the books and you’re paying him like $20 million again I like Christian Walker this is not anti Christian Walker this is anti giving Christian Walker four years which I think everyone’s kind of in agreement with me you don’t give him four years you give him three if he gets for from somewhere else you walk away and you say great doing business with you it’s great doing business with you apologies right right um so yeah there’s that and then I you know the Yankees and you mentioned Paul g at the stop of at the top of the show he talked about you know you know that I think that honestly plays a big role in like how much you like Ben rice whatever it may be um yeah but man Jason Dominguez uh you know I think he’s got a chance to be that hitter who elevates the Yankee offense considerably I don’t get it man people are really sleeping on Jason Dominguez right now people are like totally forgetting how much of an upgrade he’s going to be offensively Alex Verdugo like the Yankees did nothing there nothing they saved $8 million by letting Verdugo leave and Dominguez is going to be a better offensive player than him I would bet anything on it like Dominguez profiles perfectly for Yankee Stadium he just hasn’t gotten like like consistent experience you know like the guy got 18 games to the end of last year and people will use those numbers he was playing like every four days on average he wasn’t even playing every day like how do you expect a young player to get any sort of consistency or get hot if he’s not even playing every day you know there’s going to be no pressure on him he’s going to be the starter he’s going to be given the given the the leash and he’s going to be better than Verdugo offensively he’s 21 years old guys like this this uh this like disregard for how talented this young player is we’ve seen him go on the hot stretches like I know Ryan you and I we how many episodes have we done in the middle of a season where nobody was watching about Jason Dominguez crushing Triple H crushing in the minor I know it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to do it in the majors but my point being is when he gets hot he get gets freaking hot you know what I mean like he doesn’t slow down until he gets hurt usually like he was destroying Triple A and then he had that oblique injury and it set him back and he came back from the injury and he was not the same for for weeks if not a month or two you know what I mean like I I know you recall that what is your projection for Jason dingz I think he’s going to be a monster on long term for this team there are a lot of people are like they’ve been hyping this guy up for five years he was signed at 16 like yeah he I’m I’m going to go on a little bit of a tangent here I’m going to go on a little bit of a tangent here okay and I’m going to look directly the camera if you’re someone who’s like they’ve been saying this for 5 years Jason Dominguez was [ __ ] 16 he’s six he was 16 when he signed yeah it’s going to take four or five years for the guy to become a big Leaguer oh and he also got Tommy John surgery he lost the year to Tommy John surgery he lost his first year of pro ball to covid he’s played three years of professional baseball three three seasons of pro ball and honestly the last one he played was far from a normal season because he was coming back from Tommy John surgery so we’ve had 2021 and 2022 as normal Jason Dominguez season I guess 2023 2023 was a normal Jason Dominguez season he just got hurt at the end 2024 wasn’t a normal season he didn’t play in 2020 this guy’s a monster this guy’s a this guy’s done nothing but hit the ball hard and make a lot of contact and make great s decisions I haven’t heard a single guy in the organization say anything remotely negative it’s all positive it’s all optimism because this guy freaking mashes look at his projections 109 WRC Plus on steamer on Zips 112 WRC Plus on steamer that’s insane for a rookie this is a rookie this is a guy who is like not you know does not have a lot of MLB experience and even in his MLB sample size a 109 WRC plus a 13.3% barrrel rate um his swinging strike rate’s 11.8% is that a little high yeah but it’s not like bad it’s not atrocious a 50% hard hit rate uh you know a 133% walk rate uh you know this is that’s a really that’s a that’s a really good profile if he does that over the and he has a 222 B pip over that stretch I promise you the one thing that won’t sustain about that is the B pip his b pip will not be 222 in his major league career it’ll be 250 260 maybe even 300 right he doesn’t he doesn’t have these massive swing and Miss issues he doesn’t have massive plate discipline issues he doesn’t have a lack of power again we’re going to reference that I know the striker rate’s 27% and that is high but again you want to compare like how much is he whiffing versus like taking strike three you know that is a little more important to me the average swinging strike rate is 11.1% so his swing and Miss rate is slightly higher than League average but oh yeah I’m barreling 133% of batted balls and oh yeah part of that sample size I played with a torn freaking UCL he had a torn UCL and he was hitting home runs like it was nothing he Alex he threw a ball 90 something miles an hour with a torn UCL in his throwing elbow and we’re talk it’s taking five years it’s been five it’s taking so long like are you [ __ ] like are you crazy like are you like I genuinely freaking Homer off of Justin Verlander with I I genuinely think there is a level of stupidity that you have you have to hit an extremely high threshold of stupidity in order to think that Jason Dominguez is a a guy who’s been in the Min leagues for too long a guy who’s too old he’s 21 he’s younger than all of the AL rookie is there I’m trying to think is there a rookie the final last year we had Austin Wells was 24 as a rookie last year vul was 22 a v was 22 as a rookie um who who was the I’m looking at the Al Al Rookie of the Year candidates all of them were older than Jason mingam will be by a considerable margin this year the NL Rookie of the Year candidates I’m trying to think it was SK who I think is as old if not a little bit younger I could be wrong he actually could be older uh than uh Jason Dominguez or at least the same he’s 22 he’s older than Jason Dominguez Paul SKS is older than Jason he’s going to turn 23 this year he’s about a year older than Jason Dominguez he’s a year older than Jason Dominguez uh you have Joda imanaga who’s like 30 right you know Tech it’s not really fair to call him a rookie of the year candidate right cuz like not saying that he should be Rook but like it’s not he obviously is older because he came from a different professional League um I’m sorry I’m just spacing out on rookies right now um they had you know you have all these rookie pitchers Yoshi on M 25 pitch in a professional League Jackson cherio is the only guy I can think of who’s meaningfully younger than Jason mingz he’s about a year and a half he’s about a year younger than Jason um Jackson Merrill is going to turn 20 is the same age as Jason Dominguez right you know these guys are sometimes it just takes a while when you lose an entire professional season when you lose an entire professional season this kind of stuff can happen and Jason Dominguez is talented enough I think to elevate this offense Elevate this roster and be that guy the question I have is defense it’s not the power it’s not it’s not the ability to hit home runs it’s not the ability to steal bases it’s not the ridiculous play discipline it’s not the unbelievable ability to impart damage on contact it’s just that it’s that one thing it’s Hey how well is his defense and also he pulls so balls in the air man he does he does he does and defensively I want to throw in like this is a guy who’s barely played in left field in the Bronx like I know we’re all like he can’t play there he can’t do this he can’t do that but why can’t he do that you know just because we saw a couple of mishaps like players don’t improve 21-year old kids don’t don’t get better I want to see him play left field and take that challenge on and get better and improve he’s got every ounce of athleticism in play Left Field Yankee Stadium every ounce he’s a better than Alex fugo right all he has to do is to track the ball better understand the dimensions of left field like he just has no experience there you know what I mean like it’s it’s that simple so I I think you know all the the first half of next season that’ll be the test for him the Yankees I I think it’s fair to give him give him some leash there I don’t I don’t mind him struggling a little bit to get better to improve to be the long-term solution it takes players time uh sometimes to to get to that uh that level but if he’s mashing and he’s playing well offensively those minor mishaps in and the outfields are going to be a drop of the bucket compared to what we got from Alex rugo like think F defensive center fielder like I I think yeah just a problem you just swap him with with that he’s not he’s not he’s not the worst defensive player ever he he did make some mishaps for sure but like I remember seeing vulpi looked like one of the worst defensive Short Stops in the sport remember when he was a bad defensive Short Stop halfway through the 2023 season and then just turns it on everyone was calling him a second base how many fans were trying to get us to move into second base just give him give him some time yeah just give him some time now he’s one of the best defensive s in the game for entire for Austin wells’s entire M minor league career everyone’s like when is he going to move to left field when is he going to move to first base when are they going to play in right field when is he going to play they never did it never and what is Austin Wells one of the best offensive catchers in the freaking Sport and like not an exaggeration he is one of the best defensive players in baseball if you look at his defensive numbers so defensive value on Fang graphs right that’s uh an important metric to evaluate here Austin Wells we going to go going to take away the plate appearance limiter Austin Wells was the fifth most valuable defensive player in baseball last year and he played 115 games mhm granted you know catchers like Alejandro Kirk played 103 Patrick Bailey 121 catchers don’t play a lot but um yeah he’s one of the best defensive players in baseball he just is he put up a three-point four War last year in 115 games if he plays 130 he may be a four War player and was with a 104 WRC plus could be even better so you know the Yankees have a good existing core of young talent in my opinion um it’s just a question of weather right it’s a question of all right what can we get out of this group in 2025 and in Jason’s case he has a chance to be a really good ball player in Bellinger’s case we think he’s a good fit for the ballpark um now and I and I and I actually saw this tweet just now and I want to bring this up just now because I think this actually kind of it’s starting to rationalize my head a little bit Alex this is from Randy Wilkins uh you know director of the captain you know that Jeter documentary and he was talking about the Oscar Hernandez right and I’m like in my head I think we’ve both kind of been like it’s not going to work right but if you kind of compare it to last year’s Outfield defense Dominguez in Center Field’s probably better than judge was last year judge was really bad defensively in center field from like he didn’t CU it’s not like right it’s not cuz he can’t play it I think it’s more so because he’s trying to preserve his body right and I agree with that assessment by the way he’s not he needs to be making up speed making up taking up space and he just isn’t fast enough he’s better for a Corner Spot cuz he’s got a ridiculous arm still and and he’s you know an incredibly intelligent defensive player so you’re better probably is Judge a better right field defensively than verigo is in left field I’d say it’s about a walk right I think they’re even Defenders right Jason’s a better Defender than judge in the center Hernandez is probably a equal Defender to let in left field that soda was in right field they’re both equally not very good but the offense for Hernandez is clearly better than Walkers better than Alonzo’s better than Santana’s and you could still get a call you know you and I don’t love Bell andr first base but if you were to put Bell andr first base Hernandez is a pretty freaking good get and he’s what he’s looking for a threeyear deal I think the report was the reason the reason I would wouldn’t get Hernandez is because it immediately takes you out of getting Kyle Tucker next year it does that’s a good point um and I I don’t I don’t want to risk that I I think you that that’s why I’m saying you trade for a first baseman that only has one or two years left of control cuz then you can move on and not have to worry but what if you move judge to first base next year and then he put T osar right field I mean that’s also so the problem is is like you’re spending let’s say 23 Milli onar Hernandez right you’re moving judge to first base where uming like we who are you getting for first base now then right like who just slides to first I don’t love it but like Hernandez like her is Hernandez plus Bellinger a better offensive combo than Bellinger and like Carlos Santana cuz it is in my opinion or like Bellinger and Walker even I think it’s a better offensive combo those I think another problem might be that like that team is going to age really poorly they could age poorly but also a team with Christian Walker at first base is not going to age particularly well as well whereas Herz at least 32 and he’s like you know you know what I mean like at least he’s 32 right I understand I mean look if you wanted to if you wanted to like put Bell and first base you get tocar Hernandez you you put were you putting heris in this instance guess put field you put put Jason in Center I you have one of the worst you have one of the worst defensive outfields also really bad last year you were also really bad last year and and then at the same time you get you’re you’re offensively better than you were last year with those those bats um I I think that I would I would rather here’s the thing like you know I’m weighing santand but like he’s going to want more than three years cuz he’s he’s also is he a better hitter than tasar Hernandez is like tasar Hernandez like I didn’t real like for so for the last five seasons he has a WRC plus of at least 130 tank like I kind of forgot how good Hernandez is that is a good point but I also will say this he seems to love hitting here cuz he he kills us man he kills us and if you want to talk about like a guy who you feel comfortable throwing them out in high pressure situations thos Ganz is Mash he plays a lot of games too yeah yeah he’s he’s that’s another big part of this so Hernandez in his Poston career 20 games obviously very small sample size five home runs 124 WRC plus obviously this past year you know he delivered probably the biggest hit of the World Series outside of the Freeman Grand Slam which was that double to tie the game in the fifth and I don’t know about you I don’t think I ever want to see Taos gadz play the Yankees again that’s kind of where my thought process is left field and Dodger Stadium is pretty rough to play and so is right field he was able like he was bad in left field better in right field he actually had five defensive runs saved in right field I have no idea how he did that I also have no idea why he was so bad in left field in Dodgers Stadium I don’t know it’s it’s definitely a gamble it’s not one that I would blame the Yankees for avoiding uh you know what I mean like this isn’t a situation where I’m like if the Yankees don’t do this they’re stupid right it’s more like U isn’t that interesting like I just thought it was an interesting topic to bring up cuz Bellinger gives you the flexibility but at least Bellinger gives you the flexibility to think like that right Bellinger gives you the flexibility to go do I want a f is there a better outfielder than a first basement out there either on the trade or first base Market what if like Luis Robert’s price point is a little more like oh yeah I do that that you know what I mean would you say all right I get younger then I get with Walker he costs less he has the upside to be an MVP candidate and that’s an idea uh there are outfielders who exist I think Adas Garcia might be on the trade market I wouldn’t I don’t love Adas Garcia but like we’ve seen what he can do when he’s on and holy cow is Adas Garcia good when he’s on had a rough year last year could you buy low there and we talked about the Rangers as an attractive trade candidate uh because the Yankees and the Rangers kind of have similar needs uh Adas Garcia this past year was awful like he was terrible 80 wrrc plus yuck but the year before that 126 I don’t know I think that’s a risk I think he chased more yeah he chased I really don’t know what happened here yeah you couldn’t get on base but my point is like you can get creative right and the Yankees you Alex how much money would you if you’re a betting man check out fire sh B on Instagram Tik Tok Twitter Discord daily plug yeah of course I’m going to plug that in if you’re betting man do you bet on Brian Cashman making do you bet on Brian cash making one more oh what the [ __ ] you’re making this move kind of move like really this came out of nowhere yeah but I think it’s going to be a trade for a first baseman um it could or an infielder it could be an outfielder so the reason there’s another there’s a couple things you have to that I think that we have to consider for 2026 as well cuz like right like 2025 you don’t have Kyle Tucker but you want to be in a position to actually sign him there’s other money we have to allocate right like so you’re getting rid of the strowman’s contract gone that’s $18.5 million off the books that’s a nice chunk of change another $16 million for the vesting options of Rizzo and Aaron Hicks are now gone so you you have or the buyout options rather so you’re adding like $36 million to the books which is like almost what you need to get KY Tucker to be quite honest it’s only for one year um but you’re still it’s the money’s off setting it’s being allocated differently now we have a couple of other decisions we have to make though like are we extending Devin Williams right like that that’s another expense that we have to consider Luke Weaver is a free agent at the end of the year weever free be shocked if one of those two aren’t back right I think they’re going to extend I think you extend Weaver you can probably bring them back for a pretty decent price I think I would extend him soon what I would do is I would walk up to Luke Weaver and say Here’s three years $30 million uh it kick in after 2025 yeah I I would I would consider that too 10 million for him is not not a bad price tag no not at all um so strowman’s off the books I mean looking at like estimates and stuff like that Trent grisham’s off the books he’ll be a free agent so you know you’re looking I think he’s a free agent 2027 so I think they probably uh non-tender him next year and and just and then promote Spencer Jones or like if they don’t trade him or they can find a cheaper alternative to be your backup outfielder than than Grisham in the final year of arbitration where he’s going to make like8 M 78 millionar like that’s that’s a little bit too much for me uh when it comes to to Gish I think he’s making five now right so like you’re there there’s expensive NE expenses next year that we have to consider um but most of all like tasar Hernandez like $22 million or $23 million for three years it’s it’s something that I would definitely consider but if I have any reason to believe that it’s going going to compromise my ability to sign Kyle Tucker next year I’m not making that move because I think that you can still get better substantially better you out a first baseman you get a second baseman or a third baseman that has some slugging potential you roll you ride with what you have in the Outfield now you can always make a deal at the deadline by the way um you know for a team like the rays are going to suck if the Rays don’t sell on Yandy Diaz and you go against Carlos Santana and Santana’s not playing well you can probably go get Yandy has for next to nothing who only has one more year of control right like you could do something like that um I I I think I’m just losing Kyle Tucker though like the I think the the Yankees didn’t give up too much they they weren’t willing to go overboard with it because they they didn’t want the same thing happening last like you know repeating with Wan stto I also doubt scared of that how much do you think uh Jim Crane would actually approve sending their best player argu to the American League yeah like no way so like with that being the case I’m sitting here like if I’m the Yankees I can position myself I’m getting a one-year rental at first base cuz that’s why I like YY DS because you have a club option for 26 like you could let him go and and the buyout is 1 million it’s 1 million like Drop in the bucket so you go get yd as you get significantly better he can lead off for you and then you you go and get a second baseman or a third baseman I don’t know who that might be I know like the name Nolan arado is going to keep being floated because that’s just like one of the options on the tradem mark and second base is quite thin right now that’s going to be an interesting one for the Yankees to figure out I’m very curious to see how Cashman solves that spot uh Brendon Donan would be my would be my preference I would trade Spencer Jones and another Prospect for Brendan Donovan and you can do things with Donovan versatility wise right I like and again you know just putting this out there J chis to play the infield and the Outfield cashman’s against starting him in the Outfield it seems like he doesn’t want to do that but I think not bad insurance policy but yeah I think he would do it as an insurance policy I also think you know you can put Donovan The Outfield as again an insurance policy the outfielder who I really like I the other Outfield you could go out and get you know Mike ymy kind of that kind of guy just have him like Rover around play different three different positions if you don’t feel comfortable going after the first base Market his teammate Lamont Way junior is a first base Target if you want an OBP guy uh Taylor Ward is still out there he’s a one-year guy and he’s a right-handed bat and he would bring a right-handed back with some thump again you can put him in left field slot Bellinger at first and acquire a second baseman uh you have a lot and you still have money to do that with uh if you need to acquire like a hotong Kim whatever it may be um there are ways for the Yankees to get meaningfully better still and I think that’s that’s that’s the there’s two ways for the Yankees to get yeah you got to you know there’s some patience that gets involved in this conversation uh and it’s it’s frustrating to say patience sometimes for some fans but you know it’s December December 18th and the Yankees have made three three wait freed Williams Bellinger or someone I’m forgetting like a me guess Leisa is a move too but I’m going to say like gamechanging kind of like oh [ __ ] kind of moves mhm they made three since losing SoDo which happened 10 days ago ago the Yankees haven’t have been we’re getting our guys our guys we’re not let’s go let’s go we’re going getting our guys we’re not waiting this Market out for these guys do we know who we want we knew they wanted Max Reed we knew they wanted Cody Bellinger Williams I genuinely think that came out of nowhere I legit like he said it himself he thought it was going to freaking Los Angeles I heard that deal came around very quickly I heard like from my understanding of the situation this again just my understanding of the situation it was like a oh [ __ ] D Williams getting get get traded hey what do you want for him like we’re we’re realiz I think hashman realized that like there’s so many ways to make this team better and getting Devon Williams is like a it would have would have been the last move you make but because there’s so many there’s so many directions to go and he’s like I can make this move now and still build out the rest of this team yeah I legitimately like I I I genuinely thought the yankes just went like oh we can get Deon Williams he’s a good [ __ ] player why should like catchman said my job is to get as many good players as possible right and that’s that’s the definition of that kind of move like yeah I’m going to go get Devin freaking William going get the arguably the best relever in the game yeah come on over another player we find interesting in this entire entire entire conversation is like a jerks in profar because he does have there’s no qualifying offer play Mark Feen mentioned no qo the defense the out sh that’s a concern but he could lead off for you he did hit the ball meaning harder he’s switch hitter uh I think the back yeah he uh he made some legit changes and he might be like a threeyear $50 million guy the only thing that I’m concerned about is again we talk about Tucker but like profar can play first base you have two guys who can play first base and the Outfield and J Chism can play the infield and the Outfield You’ got a lot of Versatility you have guys you can slot kind of all over the diamond profar has played the infield before he’s played second 400 dude he has 466 Innings at first base yeah with with almost a perfect Fielding percentage ums is one and two outs above average he has let me see his DRS was one with two y you’re spot on I mean you could stick him at first base thank God I’m not single cuz could you imagine like someone watching this and going this guy knows jerks and Prof far as first base defensive I know so many like obscure random stats man Carlos Santana’s DRS like I’m married man like it doesn’t it doesn’t it doesn’t go away like you’re single married you have I have a kid like I know the DRS of multiple random free agents fine you see I posted like there’s like Fang graphs wrapped I uh spent I had the distinction of every single day I was on Fang graphs this year I did not go a single day this year without not visiting I think I might be up there too multiple times I’m Avid I’m an avid Fang graphs and I have your log too so I get all the I get all the advanced status I wonder if that is why actually does do you think that’s why we hit that number like there has to be a day where I didn’t mean I’m on it every day like writing and looking up information you know like I’ll take like my girlfriend and I will go shopping we’ll go to like Target and like the way it works and kind of the foundation how this works is that like she wants to go up and down every aisle looking at everything even if she’s not going to buy your phra sign com from and you know what she’ll be like hey I’m going to go check this out just wait right here I’m going to go change for a second I’m be all right cool man Cody Bellinger really pulls the ball a lot doesn’t he you know what I mean d i mean when I’m waiting when I’m waiting for my wife I’m like I’m sitting there like and she wants to buy something I’m like well the estimated arbitration for that you know that’s that’s where we’re value value we’re in the fin of arbitration that’re free agency soon you better you better you better count your pennies dude I mean I will say Target Target is quite Target is quite the store and you’ll I’m kind of like I will I got my steps in too I get my steps in doing that like it’s really productive you know I get my steps go up and down every single aisle like no [ __ ] I know like my craziest things there too yeah they do I mean it’s actually pretty useful I will say the one thing that I love about Target is that there’s a lot of stuff where I’m like hey you know what I could use that um and I dropped a coin I was playing with a coin in my hand this entire like I was flipping in my hand and it yeah I I dropped one so I’m sorry about the audio uh but like dude it is tying back how did we get here tying back to baseball there there’s some Brian Cashman analogy here where he’s like you know when you’re shoing at Target sometimes you want the expensive stuff but sometimes you know you you go out you go to the value se you know what you get you get something you get something off brand yeah you get that like you know gives me offbrand but for the for for good value you know what he is he’s he’s like Walmart Great Value but it’s like a Walmart Great Value item that you love you know what I mean like he’s a Kirkland product yo he is K them Kirkland chicken thighs and chicken breasts exem underrated ex like like like Drop the Boom for jerks Brar you know like jerks and Prof how many booms he got for you give me your opinion how many booms I mean last year he had 24 booms he had 24 so he gets 24 booms High OBP low strike art rate honestly I kind of feel like it makes sense right it kind of does and no one’s talking about I’ve been saying this dude for like a two weeks now no one’s talking about jerx and profar but when he signs I have been right I have been right man would make this team he has a projected 116 WRC plus it’s actually higher than Hernandez that’s a pretty meaningful projection hike too play first base I’d rather I’d rather sign jerx and profar to play first base than Anthony santon there tell is artical idea are you going to you want to tackle that I have something going on with Bellinger it has to look at look at Savant dude 90th percentile in chasing whiff rate 88th percentile on Striker R 89th percentile on walk rate 92 percentile on xoba xba 92 this was up too and up this a oneoff season dude look at how much harder he hit the ball than any year of his career look at withun in scoring position he hit 321 with a 446 OB 509 slugging rate 955 Ops we what the hell you highest WRC plus run score position of all time that’s actually he had the greatest clutch season regular season in EM history isn’t that hilarious I’d also like to point out batting first for the for the Padres last year it was only 71 at bats but he hit 380 with a 1.71 Ops he also just has he’s some of the Yankees I’ve liked before too it’s not like this is like a foreign player to the Yankees It’s someone they’ve had interest in I remember when he was going to get when he got traded to the A’s the Yankees were interested it was the Rangers the Yankees were interested when he get free a couple times the Yankees were like remember that one year in 20 it was oh my God we’re back to 2023 the one year where I was like are the jerks and profar is jerks and profar good and it was 2023 and he wasn’t actually that good and now he’s actually good and it’s like oh [ __ ] this guy was a former top prospect like I I feel like it’s not crazy for a guy a former top I think he did he hit the ball meaningfully harder than he did last year like and his splits dude as a righty and as a lefty are both yeah excellent he hit 273 as a right against left Ed pitching and as a lefty against right 300 he might dude he might be like is this is this the best value grab on the free agent Market he might be he might be he kind of gives me Tyler O’Neal Vibes where like I was kind of upset when Tyler O’Neal flew off the boardz like damn he got no qualifying offer like $4 million a year and he fits Baltimore really well profar if you bring him to the Yankees you can still like trade for an infielder cuz you didn’t give up picks you didn’t lose anything he got a decent arm could you imagine you brought in profar like traded for like Bren I mean I I will oh stop stop stop you’re now now you’re now you’re talking my language man now you’re talking my language you got a little you got a little Club Going Brandon Donovan we’re we’re going back to a chip next year if you feel like Donovan’s unrealistic Brandon La is right there and you’d have two guys with Bellinger and profar that you’re so comfortable with their plate and contact skills you don’t feel like oh my God but LA’s going to strike out so much well he strikes out the 20 it’s not even like a problem to me but like the Yankees wouldn’t like you wouldn’t see their team strikeout rate go up to like 30% they’d be like a little they’ strike out a little more than they did last year probably but they’d probably be a really good offensive team they’d still be good offensive team man what I like about proar is he was better and like this is rare he was better against offs speed pitches than he was against fast balls which is kind of rare I feel usually people are better against fast balls than they are against off speed but neither here nor there what I like about proar and Donovan and Cody Bellinger is that they have and Jazz they have all of them are versatile so if something’s not working the Yankees can just keep testing alignments until they find the right one and at the deadline you can legitimately just get the best bat available [ __ ] I’m like right you found the alignment that works best for us and offensively you’re not losing anything because they’re just all playing every day player option for 2026 a club option the Yankees can it’s like Yanni Diaz you could say nope you’re not coming back you’re not very good or no you’re coming back you’re only $10 million like that rocks that and that that stuff matters this stuff matters I I think too when you put together a lineup where you’ve got like you know profar judge la is a perfect three hitter behind judge cuz he’s a lefty and he dude if you look at his Zone like how often he swings he loves swinging he’ll swing in everything in the zone and if you’re thinking I’m going to pitch to low so I don’t have to pitch to Stanton yeah good luck with that man he’ll hit a ball over the fence he’ll Crush ball he got Stanton then you got like Bellinger after that uh and you’ve got you know the one thing you would struggle with is like who’s your like righty like you don’t have enough right-handed bats but you know second base Market could could breed uh whoa that’s not how I meant that could could yield a second basem um wow that was bad uh but like you get right-handed options I’m sure there you know if you wanted to get like again a hang Kim if you’re like no you don’t you know what let’s not trade for Lao don’t want to trade Capital fine go go sign hosan K I don’t care there are things you can do there are things you can do this the whole point is that Bellinger you can do so much now you can do anything your mind wants in the outfi on second base that versatility is really really valuable right exactly exactly I don’t know man Prof far like we have heard nothing look a 3year 45 mil deal 15 m season he dude he was on a onee 1 million deal last year like talk about getting value the Padre’s got the most possible value out of jerks and pro probably one of the best value signings in in in in like the last couple years was jerks and profar cuz like that is a stupid good contract one year one mil I mean the season he had is he even getting 15 mil like are people going to give him that much money for like he’ll get 15 mil I think he’ll get 50 mil but Tyler O’Neal again Tyler look at Tyler O’Neal’s numbers 130c plus had year before this year in 2021 where he was like a six War player he got 3 years $50 million of the player option I’m not saying profer is going to get a threeyear $50 million deal but could you get like a threeyear 55 right and then you’re like yeah it makes sense right yeah O’Neal yeah he’s also I will say this O’Neal’s two years younger um I realize that that probably does play a big part he’s also a better Defender he’s also a much better Defender but even yeah that was but last year he wasn’t a very good defender in the corner Outfield and that’s playing Left worse per a good point but remember Fenway and left field is very it’s supposed to be pretty easy to play like because of that I know he was negative one he was a negative one DRS very injury prone O’Neal you know he’s going to get hurt proar you don’t really feel like he’s going to just like die randomly played a lot of games he played yeah he’s played one last four years 137 152 it comes down to what teams value more but in my opinion again I I think proar is going to cost less than thosar Hernandez and there I that’s the big thing he’s going to cost less than both he’s going to give you 20 plus homers a year and he might he might he might be better than both of those players next year he was better than both of them this past year he and no qo so you don’t think there’s no qualifying offer ex I think that’s a cheap like you’re you’re telling me you’re telling me Ryan for the same price that we’re currently paying for DJ lameu we can take a shot at jerks and Prof for coming off the year he just had for if he gets an aggressive all from someone else with like $20 million over four years and he goes there fine but like you know I think the Yankees are going to make a meaningful bid at profar I think the Yankees will make meaningful the Yankees will inquire on anyone that can make their team better that’s what they’ve shown us thus far they are casting an extremely wide net and this is the first time where I feel like I looked at Brian cashon and I’ve gone well I mean I think he’s a good GM don’t get me wrong but like I looked at gone you know what man I I got to really give you your props like that’s where I’m at right now we’re like dude you’re doing a job right now like you were put in an incredibly difficult situation it’s not Brian cashman’s fault they didn’t bring back Juan sto right and I’m not going to say it’s either how SN fall he offered $760 million it’s just a matter sometimes a team just offers a lot more than what you’re will willing to do and what maybe you should be willing to do that’s what the Mets did I mean with all the bells and whistles I think it’s $55 million a and then when he gets that kick in that increases it from 51 to 55 with all those bells and whistles the sweets the the apparently the like the the money for his mom’s clothes which you know I know people are like that greedy bastard this is and that like I’m going keep it real with you Alex I’m going keep it real I’m G to keep it real with you like if I was Juan stto I could have been the most di hard Yankee fan somebody gave me $85 million instead of 760 over shorter time span gave me sweets tickets and gave my mom shopping money yeah I’m taking that and personal security for me my entire family yeah I’m going to keep it a buck with you I’m taking that Mets offer right like I it’s just it’s just it’s just it is what it is right they made a really freaking good offer right you know they they made The Godfather offer they made an offer that a man cannot refuse unfortunately it just happen to be for a player we really wanted to get it it’s unfortunate that’s not on Hal I don’t blame Hal for that I don’t blame cash for that what I would blame them for is not going out and getting better after that it also is important to know I thought this was going to out at 750 for 15 years and when I said that I thought even both of us were like it’d be crazy if it got there but I think it will right mhm it got CRA it got to 760 and then 800 805 805 million that’s freaking crazy and of course again so everything gets counted towards the luxury tax so all the sweets and stuff I saw a report it’s going to bump up to like 55 million so that’s going to be a $60 million luxury tax hit in about four or five years that I’m I still think it’s worth it for the player I really do think Juan stto is worth a ton of for right and they also don’t have long-term money on the books it’s him Andor that’s really it right the Yankees do the Yankees can’t really it’s worse strategy for the ink to do it than for the Mets to do it if that makes sense um but could you imagine I mean if you ate up $55 million of the payroll you don’t have a second basement or like no I mean you’re now you’re trading your farm to to fill other spots and you really have a farm to trade out and your window is also a lot a lot shorter same length of window because I think that judge like judges regret I think that the Yankees will still not be as good as they should be or not you just don’t have enough to make other moves is the problem but you just you also like the the thing is that that pipeline of talent after judge is done mhm is going to be dried up it’s going to be dried up immediately like you you’re pitching like you’re running back like we’re not getting Max freed if you get stto like and you’re running it back with like Cortez who’s in the fin of ARB like you’re you’re asking these guys to pitch meaningful Innings and you’re probably not getting Devon Williams cuz you have to keep Nester in that situation and now you don’t have a closer like you’re asking Luke Weaver to be this guy and you know and that’s a lot of pressure for him so you know I think I think look I’m not going to sit here and tell you the Yankees are better without Juan sto because that’s objectively not true but there is a way to rebuild stto in the aggregate you know kind of you know quoting Money Ball you can do that like you can rebuild sto’s production but they’re doing it in different ways they’re doing it through pitching through Devon Williams in a closer Bellinger and versatility and defense and you know they they get 22 home run runs or 24 in the Bronx I think he hit 25 plus homers next year if they get 25 homers from Cody Bellinger of the 41 they got from monod making up a little bit of of room there cuz I know like Verdugo had 13 so you’re making up some ground there you add I mean Rizzo was basically a walking skeleton so like you you you can add a first baseman if you get a guy like Jers profar can H you 20 plus homers get on base at a 30 let’s say even a 35% clip I know the what like what are the projections for jerks and pro far next year plus steamer has him at a 29 average 49 OBP 18 Homer 70 RBI like I will take that 15 mil um over 151 games games so yeah okay that makes sense that makes sense uh I I’ll take that you know and if they put him at first base first base actually is his best defensive position which is funny enough that’s so funny dude I mean dude remember he came he came up a decade ago as a short stop I know he God he had one season where he had negative – 20 DRS at second base me that’s basically having like me playing short yeah how do you how do you have negative – 20 a second base like that’s even G Tes and we know how bad he looked was even close to that last year that’s insane amounts of incompetence defensively but profar’s best defensive position over 500 Innings minimum as he’s about 500 with uh at first base he’s slightly above average so it’s like okay like maybe there is an Avenue for him to transition to first base full-time three-year contract that allows you to stick judge and and right field for three more years and then transition uh judge over to first base when the time is right again the whole point is and the walk to take away from this episode I don’t think should be oh the Yankees are going to sign jerks and pro 100% And that’s I think the point is more so hey look at like there are like five six like really good plans that you could roll out there and they’re all attainable like I mentioned really Castro uh a lot on live streams I think his Bat plays well here he has good speed he stole 33 base in 2023 it dropped significantly in 2024 I don’t know why the Sprint speed didn’t get worse but he would have hit 12 19 home runs at Yankee stadi instead of 12 and he had 108 WRC Plus in each of the last two seasons another guy like former top prospect kind of clicks at the major league level the different organization um you know if you brought him in to play second base or third base I don’t remember which one’s a better defensive position but he’s meaningfully better at one than the other and jazz is good enough at both that I don’t care just slide them around wherever you have to if you make the right upgrade at first or left then you’ve got okay I got one8 WRC plus hitter at second I’ve got let’s say a 115 WRC plus hitter in Bellinger and let’s say I get a guy who like a 125 WRC plus hitter to play second right or maybe it’s an outfielder I don’t really know um hey it’s a ball club right that’s that’s that’s that’s a pretty deep team that’s a team that can hit a lot that’s a team that’s going to score a lot of runs team that’s going to prevent a lot of runs you know it’ll be a little more of like a 2022 feel but if they got the 2022 team right if that makes sense that’s kind of what you’re aiming for you know what I mean if you get the 2022 team right so yeah I don’t know man there’s a lot of options you know we like proar we’re we we like Hernandez you know we’re okay with Sant andere but you know we don’t necessarily need him I don’t think he’s a great fit anymore pet Lonzo I don’t think he’s a good fit at all uh defensively absolute disaster I mean his metrics you you said it yesterday the podcast Ryan like the declining like in in key areas um I and he got did he get a qo too pet Lonzo I’m sure he did yes he did so you’re GNA have pick anyway yeah I’m kind of out on pet Alonzo um I I think Santana is one of the best value grabs at first base um I I would love to try and get Donovan from the Cardinals if they if they look to blow it up and I think they’re kind of heading in that direction this the the the faster teams around them get better and they’re not making any big moves so you know we’ll see kind of how things materialized but always happy to have these good conversations if you guys have anything that you want to talk about and you’ve made it in an hour into this episode um love you guys so much for sticking along with us for the ride and the conversation always a good time um always happy to hear your thoughts Down Below in the YouTube comment sections make sure to like And subscribe as always and we’ll catch you guys on the next Fireside Yankees episode [Music] perfect [Music]

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