📅 Published on: 2024-12-19 00:02:36

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A spontaneous livestream from Paydirt!

Pablo, James, and Mike take a look at the NHL slate using the Paydirt models and other industry sources to get an idea of the best spots to leverage and fade in GPPs

🎙 Channel: Paydirt Analytics (James McCool)

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🕵️‍♂️ Transcript:

we’re live man I have it [ __ ] down um I actually did reach out to cookies um who has done some work with perer before to get an intro but nobody gives a [ __ ] about that my name is James mol I’m the owner of pater tfs.com and today we’re gonna do an impromptu NHL slate talk um the community wanted it we ain’t got [ __ ] to do I needed to get away from the four children that are downstairs taking up my living room and so we are here um we’re going to talk about a five game NHL slate tonight um like I said there’s nothing else going on so figured it’ be good to do this and and kind of take a look at how each one of us go over the Slate I am joined today by Mr Pablo y’all know him uh he does the Slate talks with me for NFL and I am joined by Mike cat as well who’s a Valu Community member over at Pay Dirt um OG dirt dog as we like to call them um I think that him and I are the only ones that call anybody F dirt dog we’re trying to make that a thing let’s do it yeah yeah I mean we’ve been trying to make it a thing for like [ __ ] year half or something so um but I’m joined by him um so we’re gonna go down the NHL slate today um Mike and I both may have to jump off at some point I don’t think that either one of us will but if we do then Pablo will be here and you guys can listen to him ramble for a while but uh without you know all of that said um Mike how are you today I’m doing well it’s exciting slate five gamer gives you some options and I’m excited to jump in so yeah yeah Pablo how you doing I’m doing well doing well I have I’m I’m coming into this slate uh Virgin Eyes I have not looked at it aside from seeing it was a five gamer and uh reging this morning um but it looks like a good one I think we’re GNA have a lot of action in terms of um there’s I think there’s a lot of casuals playing tonight from like NBA or whatever else I don’t know I don’t play NBA but it seems based off of like X and Discord that a lot of people are interested because there’s good contest so those are always good nights uh because um some of the people who don’t regularly play um you can kind of tell because of the roster construction so I I I think Knights like these usually have a little bit more Edge than than Knights that are less popular yeah I would agree with that um and you know whenever we do the the All-Star break it’s always I always make the joke like uh who what of the players who are actually good at DFS are going to take down an NHL slate tonight because all the good players like myself include there’s always a 444 that’s opened I always played all the best players always jump in and it’s kind of like a a trophy system for all like the entirety of the DFS Community to like jump in and play hockey and see who’s the best at this Niche sport so um I’m kind of excited I have not really looked at it much uh I’m kind of like Pablo here I have done work on the contest Sims though and actually I’m gonna steal the screen really quick here Pablo because I want to talk a little bit about changes that I made because you being an [ __ ] for some reason said you don’t understand how these things said true I said nobody knows what this means and I’m the only one tell speaking up I’m the only one brave enough to ask these shut the [ __ ] up I did did a full hour live stream it’s on you guys if you didn’t watch it that is not my problem but I will talk about something here really quick so um I did two different contest Sims here and and I wanna like if you guys want to know all about the contest Sims um there’s a video I will link it in the comments below um actually I guess I can probably go grab it right now um I did a full video going over the NHL models and talking through how to utilize them I’m going to post it in the in the comments right now um so you can go there if you want full info on how the contest SS works but I wanted to talk a little bit about the stack type statistics um because this is a new thing that was added in today so what this tells you is position I’m going to rename this to stack size as soon as I’m off of this [ __ ] live stream but this is the stack sizes that were used in winning lineups in the contest Sims okay for this set of simulations so this set of simulations was a th Sims and for this one for a very sharp field uh four man Stacks were used 39% of the time three man stacks for used 38.5% of the time two man Stacks use 22.5% of the time that is the distribution of Stack sizes in a very sharp field that I just ran okay so that means no fiveman Stacks won the contest no oneman stack won the contest for this specific field okay that’s that’s the way to read this the other information here average projection is the average projection of each one of the different types of stacks so four man Stacks had an average projection based on pay projections of 92.5 three man 89.8 TW man 87.8 one so that makes sense right like the average projection of a four-man stack is higher the average ownership was the lowest of the three 68% versus 72% for two man stacks that makes sense too it’s easier to stack up a whole bunch of ownership when you’re using one-offs um average fantasy fantasy is the uh score that won the gpp is even across the board 135 this is an interesting Quirk that ends up happening in the contest Sims I’m not actually sure why but if you check every single contest Sim this is a relatively regular thing and then the gpp projection is a mix of the score that won and the projection of the lineup that won so again that is higher for man Stacks now this was for a very sharp field I also ran a different field at above average so that I could show that when you change the strength of the field the lineups that win the L the contest end up being different in this one because there are two more twom man Stacks Twan Stacks in an average field because there’s there’s less correlation in in an average field more Twan Stacks end up winning it and we even have some oneman some full Lottery lineups that win only eight eight of them but but still we see that fourman Stacks have the highest projection have the highest gpp projection and have the lowest ownership so I wanted to point that out really quick if you were to run this on average we would see two and three man Stacks be like by far the highest and fourman drop even farther because the the concept there is that the strength of the field is highly tied to the correlation of the lineups that you are entering um that also matters for the size of the field right like I’m doing on a medium setting but if you do it on a large setting you’re going to get more lineup and therefore more lineups would mean less correlation across those lineups blah blah blah so I want to talk about that really quick because there were questions and I think that it’s important to note but um if you see this basically what this means is if you are playing you should probably be looking at fourman Stacks they win quite a bit of the time they have the highest average projection they have the highest gpp projection lowest ownership they make for good Stacks today um I wanted to talk that through before I gave it back to Pablo so if you guys have questions about the contests or anything like that you can obviously you can ask ask in the chat here you can ask in the Discord you can reach out to me on Twitter or X or whatever the [ __ ] you want to call it I’m on Blue Sky if you want to go find me on Blue Sky I haven’t posted that on Twitter because I’m not an [ __ ] but like I’m over there like you can find me and ask questions happen to answer them anyway there’s there’s my thing you go ahead and do your thing Mr Pablo great um all right so the way I I think for those of you who have watched me do baseball um I do hockey very similarly which is I like to to go down team totals um just as a way of just methodically going through all the teams luckily on this slate we only have five games so we can do that pretty rapidly um and then I do that in conjunction with what the range of outcomes show um and increasingly I’ve been using the research sheets which I’ll show as well um I also have daily Faceoff open because it’s free and I think daily Face Off is a good resource and I often like to sort of compare and contrast what our range of outcomes show in relation to a daily face off um because I think it’s kind of nice to have two projection sets as you’re as you’re thinking through things um and uh and then the last thing I’ll say is I visually I don’t use any of this data so please ignore the data but um you can do the same thing on on solver um James knows I’m like a user interface um I’m just very hard to sway off what I’m used to so I’m a dinosaur who still look at um fantasy Labs I really purely use it as a hand builder because I like the way you can look at the way you can see first Power Play second power play what lines people are on um disclaimer sometimes this isn’t correct um although I think they use the daily face off feed basically is their feeder so U but I I typically cross check it with our sheets as I’m going through it to make sure there’s no [ __ ] up on the fantasy lab side so with that said um let’s dive in and look at the totals um we’ll start with winipeg um I uh I I have the research sheets open here I’m gonna I’m gonna go efficiently because lock is in an hour and I’m sure people want to build and I want to build so I’m going to try to kind of go through things in the next 20 to 30 minutes we can Mike uh will’ll give some color um and then and then we’ll have time for some questions and to build um so Winnipeg team total is obviously the highest um James wonderfully added this hdsf plus tab for me which is very nice because it combines High danger Chances with shots for matchup and you can see here highest total and um very strong hdsf so it’s obviously a very good matchup for Winnipeg um the other thing I like to do is I like to look at the market shares so um Team total here and you can look at there’s a variety of things you can look at I like to look at first of all just colorcoded do any of these stick out as compared to the other ones and then projected goals high danger chances which are correlated with projected goals and um last 14 stats as well um you could see here that uh for for for Winnipeg sometimes you’ll get a team like Carolina where the production’s a little more spread out um uh you know this second line with naskov and chiov have actually been somewhat productive the last week or two chiov specifically is a a guy who I’ve played a couple times who’s really cheap and you can see their cost is 8700 but honestly if you’re playing Winnipeg you’re probably playing the first line you can see here in terms of their um in terms of how how their market share is they’re pretty dominant for that team that’s like a pretty if you scroll down here like very few of any other lines kind of dominate production for any given team The Way Winnipeg 1 does usually that correlates with the range of outcomes but if we go to lines here and we organize Lines by median um Winnipeg 1 has a very strong uh 52% 2x um and for the pay-ups which you could see is like them Minnesota one Florida 1 Toronto one from a point a dollar standpoint their 2X and 3X is really strong so um what this tells you is I’m assuming their heavy chalk um they are yeah they look they look fairly heavy chock um but I would classify Winnipeg one as pretty good chock um the other context here is um they’re on a back-to-back um I don’t know that that matters they are playing Anaheim Anaheim is a pretty bad defensive team uh but um uh and then the last point I’ll make about Winnipeg is that if you visualize their first line um and James just talked about stack sizes um you can Forman them I think without too much difficulty because valard is so cheap you can do a fourman with Mory shley Connor valard and get their four of the five um Power Play One guys um I know the Sims didn’t love fiveman sacks but if you want to try an onslaught you can play a power play one Onslaught and include eers um you’re obviously gonna have to find a value line to pair with that but I think winipeg one is good shock and I think uh the first line or making it a power play line and combining with morsy and or eers is in play Mike what do you think um yeah I would agree with you I think the field is gonna make a mistake tonight and Connor W off because he got nine shots on goal last night and scored two goals I think if you play Winnipeg you’ve got to line stack it don’t get cute and try to grab a piece um I think you play the whole line with morisy I believe Ellers is still um he’s out so um I think Peretti’s on that Power Play One um so that even gives more of the scoring to that line one um and they’re in a great spot back toback sometimes scares people away um because of the pace and everything but last night um they didn’t play all that much I I think uh valard had 17 minutes and um Connor had 18 usually they play over 20 so they’re kind of you know resting them because of that so they’re they’re going to be full go I really like winipeg one and I think you full line it um with more r c or Peretti uh and make it a four um after you know what James was saying earlier I think that’s that’s my favorite spot of the Slate is that is that spot yeah and the other thing I’ll point out here I just kind of handbuilt this just to show um Bob is a pretty strong favorite with Florida he’s only 7500 um checks a lot of boxes it’s a cheap goalie um you know you put that fourman with Bob and you got 4K La per position that’s very doable you can usually find like a cheap Twan or three man with a punt dman and and so 4K for for for your other four spots is very doable so that’s not a difficult for man um I hope people just what off Connor um I think it’s a pretty good shock spot for them and I wouldn’t overthink it um let’s move on to uh the next team um you’re James and sheets are a little more um uh I think in real time in terms of Team totals so the next highest team total is is Dallas um Dallas is going up against um Toronto tonight at home um let’s take a look at the matchup um very strong uh uh hdsf plus um it looks like uh uh you know toron Dallas is taking a bunch of shots um Toronto is giving up some shots and then similarly High danger chances um a lot of high danger chances looks like second highest on the Slate behind Winnipeg and Toronto’s been decent but not great on defense the other thing to look at um which I don’t want to double count but I I do like to look at game Pace also um you know typically a game Pace like over 55 56 is decent if you kind of but obviously the higher the better um because it means there’s more events um so it’s an okay game Pace it doesn’t stand out but not terrible so if we look at um Dallas’s uh breakdown in terms of market share um they’re a little more spread out they’re first and second line all year we we we’ve played a lot of Dallas 2 they used to be a lot cheaper um but Dallas 2 has these three guys guys um Dallas one with rupe DT hints uh Robertson Ry Johnson but you can see they kind of they have similar High deder chances they have similar projected goals so you kind of have to make a choice there they’re similarly priced they’re only $700 apart so it it is a little bit more of a choice than it is with Winnipeg one that you can probably play Dallas one or Dallas 2 in terms of correlation which again is how I like to use kind of something like this solver also has it I’m just used to this um I’m just used to this interface um you can see that uh Dallas 2 is fully correlated where you have stank marchment duchaine um you know all sort of mid-priced uh and then you’ve got um and then you’ve got rupe hins Robertson why Johnson who are also correlated the benefit there is you can also pair them with Miro hekinan similar to a fourman Winnipeg um I I can confidently say that Winnipeg one I think will be substantially more owned than Dallas one um but Dallas one is substantially cheaper so if we go to range of outcomes um Dallas one unfortunately um doesn’t look quite as good now they’re they’re cheaper right they’re 165 and Winnipeg one is 20.2 so that’s you know $3,700 of savings which allows you to get up to you know a more of a a balanced build as opposed to having to play Winnipeg one and then having to play a value line but I think um Dallas one Dallas 2 it does not look like they’re projecting all that well um if we look at it here this way Dallas 2 um is um yeah not super strong so so Sheet’s prefer Dallas one uh and and and sometimes I I kind of like this is kind of where I like to look at Daily face off again this is free so I wouldn’t show anything behind a pay wall um Dallas one looks like a strong projection with a good value Dallas 2 um uh you know okay projection less value so it looks like both sheets and and and daily face off like Dallas one um uh uh I think they’re fine I don’t I think they’re a bit sneaky because I I don’t know that I would pick on Toronto um but I but it is a cheaper line if you want to play Winnipeg one you can play a Dallas a Dallas one line for 165 instead of a instead of a Winnipeg one for 20.2 um Mike anything to what are your thoughts on Dallas one Dallas 2 and the spot they’re in yeah um Dallas be careful the flu is going through their locker room so they’re a bunch of game time decisions we’re not actually sure who those are yet oh wow okay so that you know at 6:30 or whenever their game is I don’t know if it’s 8 or S but we might get a pregame skate and get new lines and somebody might not be out there so we need to be careful with that um Dallas is interesting line one’s finally doing what we wanted them to do all year with uh hin uh Robertson and now Wyatt Johnson they’re finally clicking together um but I mean for the first 101 15 games of the year like Robertson and hint were not anything like last year it was like uh you know the opposite where line two was doing all of all the scoring with duchaine Sean and Marchman Sean’s injured he’s out for months so now Stan coen’s up on line two and it’s just not the same um chemistry there um but that doesn’t mean you know stankoven is you know priced less than Sean was when he left so either line is is doable if they’re all playing um I think you know highkin in with L one like you said makes a lot of sense um the other thing I’ll point out Mike and I don’t know your thoughts on this but if we look at the range of outcomes for individual players which I like to do I mean I always start with lines similar to baseball I start with stacks and then I go to players um but sometimes I like to look especially when two lines kind of project similarly the other thing you can do is you can play Jamie Ben you can look at the 2x 3x 4X none of the 2x 3x 4X stand out for Dallas that’s why they don’t project that well um Jamie Ben is a little bit better he’s got a 41% 2X and a 4% 3x and he is on he’s typically on the first Power Play so you can’t if you need a Twan you you know he’s only 4K team captain Jamie Ben do you do you have any thoughts on playing him um as just like a a oneoff 4K guy or or a Twan with him in like Meo yeah I like that a lot actually um what’s his price tonight is it is it 4K he’s only 4,000 4K I mean he’s one of those guys that you can kind of twom man um with with another fourman stack and uh and get your exposure that way um I think he’s you know narrative Street I think he’s um surpassing Mike madano tonight as the most games played uh in the franchise history so there you go if you want a little narrative add to sprinkle in but yeah I I like J Ben um you could even you you could put him with maybe donov um as a Winger 2800 to do like a like a cheap mini there um if you don’t want to spend up at a at a defenseman spot but there aren’t a lot of spend up D options tonight um so so yeah I I I don’t mind uh Ben with either didon off as a cheap mini or with highkin the other thing I do on daily face off and James this might be something cool to add to the sheets at some point is um you know I’ve got great ideas of course I’m not a programmer so it’s easy for me to say them but um you know just for like context sometimes I like doing this for on on on on daily face off where you can see the lines it’s kind of just nice to visualize it for me and then I like to click on like last last 10 games to see how many how many minutes are they getting in the last 10 games how many shots are they taking I know this is all baked in but it gives some context you can also do it for the season um anyway but you can see Ben is he’s playing decent minutes he’s getting a lot of shots off so I think you could do worse than that um I think it’s it’s it’s it’s an idea if you want to get some Dallas exposure without like committing to Dallas one or Dallas two larger field I like really quick you can you can do that on the site that’s usually the answer I I have game logs and season logs on the site so okay okay there you go um all right we’ll move now next to the next team total is uh Detroit Detroits have sort of been cheats Darlings um they’re kind of like dollar store Nashville um they’re playing Philadelphia um their hdsf does not look great even though they’ve got a good team total um they just the shots for matchup is not great um torts teams you know often play kind of like grind them out uh defense Mike can give more context on that than I can but um so not not a great sort of like Pace pace is like really bad um it’s not not terrible but it’s not not strong and then the htsf is not great um in terms of matchups uh for for market share uh they’re they’re a bit more spread up you can see you know line one and line two look it’s similar to Dallas uh where you know they’re almost the same projected goals um similar um metrics in terms of HD High danger chances and shots so um nothing I do think that it’s worth saying that their last 14 games Detroit 2 is looking really good um 35% of the shots 29% of the high danger shots and 30% of the goals like yeah the goals aren’t quite as concentrated but the shots certainly are um that’s a leading indicator right so I I think that if you’re if you’re looking for a way to delineate between line one and line too I think that’s probably what you do and that’s why we have the last 14 stats in there is because it can help you kind of say ah well you know if I’m I’m going to coin flip on this then where am I going to go and I think that that’s the way that I would do it um but to your point also from the research sheets like they’re they just they don’t take very many shots period That’s why their their projected goals are relatively low so um I understand why they are value play I understand wanting to play Detroit 2 if you want to play either one of the sides but from a number perspective you you have to understand that like they’re cheap for a reason yeah now I will say that they’re 133 and to your point James like you you might look at at this and T by median and say oh like I’m gonna play Detroit one um you know 31.6 for median 43% 2x decent 5x decent 3x rather um and chalky so you know field thinks it’s a good idea right but to your point if you if you go down to Detroit 2 for 133 their 2x is 54% which is better than 43 9% 3x which is better than uh five so so Detroit 2 looks like decent value um if we go to uh to see correlation here um and and we look at this I mean um cop is [ __ ] free at 2700 cat is still 62 so he’s not too cheap and then Patrick Kane is all the way down to 4,400 um you know they’re pretty darn cheap so so so to your point they’re cheap because they don’t take a ton of shots but you know pretty darn cheap again not a great hdsf matchup um but something worth considering if you need value I think is Detroit to um I don’t know that I necessarily would prioritize Detroit one I understand they’ve got an okay total against Philadelphia team and they’re at home but um I don’t know I uh you know I think I’d probably lean towards Detroit 2 as value and and be more interested in pay up for either Dallas one or Dallas 2 or or more likely win and pick one um uh Mike what are your thoughts on on Detroit yeah Detroit offers some more stability I think um than than the other side with Philly Philly you’re you’re gonna probably get more one-offs with kkny or mitchoff but um yeah there’s a cheap guy on line one which is ter anko and a cheap guy on line two which is cop and it’s like I like playing de Brink and Lin when they’re together like they were at the beginning of the season um I don’t know just I like when their best players play together but I mean you you’ll get them on the power play and and debret is the shooter more than Lin so um yeah I would lean towards towards line two um with with Kane to Brink at and cop is I mean he could yeah I mean for his price I guess you just put them in unless uh unless you’re going a fourman elsewhere or something um and you can mini those too but I mean the one that the thing that sticks out here is really Kane right if you look at Kane’s um Kane’s 2x 3x 63% um and and der Brink’s a little pricey that’s why he’s he’s his 3x sucks 4X sucks um the other one that sticks out is tchenko and then um you could go super cheap and just punt all the way to Casper who’s been who sheets Love and he’s actually been a a fairly product I’ve actually used him a couple times he’s he’s been like an interesting rookie to play but James sorry I didn’t mean to interrupt you no I didn’t say anything I’m just hanging out oh okay okay um um and in terms of um um daily Face Off is just like a kind of another projection set um they think uh Detroit one’s okay and they don’t love Detroit 2 as much as we do so um that’s actually kind of a nice thing because I think that um it probably means that the field won’t really play Detroit 2 either because you know this is usually like a decent indicator of what the field will will be doing um all right let’s keep moving so next team total we have is Philadelphia or rather Florida um Florida uh again is one of the pay up Stacks alongside Winnipeg in Toronto uh they’ve got a very strong a uh hsf matchup um uh the game Pace looks really really good it looks like it’s gonna be a fast-paced game um and they just take a lot of shots and um and and that sticks out right they take Florida takes a lot of shots they take a lot of shots [ __ ] we also saw Bob is is is pretty darn cheap and I often like pairing my goalie with one of my lines if I can for win Equity correlation so that that’s kind of in the back of my brain I kind of like that as well um let’s look at Florida’s distribution in terms of their market share um you’ve got Florida 1 um in terms of goals you got Florida 1 and Florida 2 um last 14 uh Florida 1 has been really strong um and has been sort of more dominant they’ve been getting 41% of the high danger chances and 43% of the goals um and so so you know Florida 1 sort of sticks out um a bit now they are very pricey so like there’s no way you’re playing Florida 1 and Winnipeg one unless maybe you’re like one offing Conor um so you’re you’re gonna have to make a choice there if you’re playing Florida 1 to play them instead of Winnipeg one uh in terms of your pay up lines um if we go to range of outcomes uh and sort by median here um Florida one actually looks very strong now again they’re they’re 218 whereas uh Winnipeg is 20.2 which is why on a point per dollar basis they’re not quite as good they’re you know they’re they’re 34% 2X and a 2% 3x whereas Winnipeg one is 52 and 10% um but on a five gamer you have to keep in mind that uh raw points matter and so if you’re going to get a lower owned Florida 1 instead of a higher owned Winnipeg one and you get more points out of them and you find Value you like to make up that Delta um for the 1.6k um I think it makes Florida 1 an interesting contrarian pivot pay up line um and and lastly before I let Mike way in on Florida 1 and Florida 2 um let’s just take a look at their correlation um you’ve got Florida 1 with cardi kachuk and barov again pricey as hell um but good players though the thing that also sticks out here is eblad 4K demand first Power Play that’s a really nice price for a power play 1 Dem man so as much as I love Florida 1 what sticks out to me the most on Florida is actually Aon blad for 4K in the first Power Play he’ll probably be very chalky because of his price and because he’s on the first Power Play but um um I do think you could do worse than Florida 1 as a pay up pivot off of a higher owned Winnipeg one as long as you like the value and you can make up the the the relative value on on on a on a pay down line stack alongside them but Mike and then and then the other thing I’ll just point out is Florida 2 much cheaper right you can play Lindell L ran um similar to Detroit one that we talked about before Detroit 2 rather with um with cop and Kane kind of a similar price range where you’ve got the punt linan uh the cheap lundell um admittedly you know not the fire power of these guys but if you want exposure to Florida you could play a Florida 2 with a Winnipeg one and kind of have your cake and Eed too um but uh uh I’ll I’ll stop there and let Mike weigh in on some some thoughts on Florida yeah the thing with Florida is Bennett’s out right so he’s usually online too L can I just not hear you guys what’s up oh we just you just can’t hear us yeah you just can’t hear us you you go for it um yeah so so Florida they didn’t have barkov last game they have him this game now they lost Bennett I believe he was there last game they just had a slugfest with Edmonton I forget what the final score was but there I think there were over 10 goals um usually kachuck is with Bennett on line two um so now he’s on line one with barov and Veri kind of stacking that line a little more um but then you got Reinhardt which is you know their best scorer arguably or at least their best shooter online to so um I mean he could score two I cannot hear you two Power Play Goals um get out and get back in because I can’t hear you guys is it your headphones go for it B you were bragging about earlier yeah super cool headphones he was just bragging yeah any yeah yeah yeah um I mean I’ll I’ll add my screen for now yeah go ahead um I I tend to agree with you I I think that line two was interesting I also think that um in in the spirit of playing a stack on a team with a good team total um that I I think could make sense um you know Power Play 2 I think actually looks pretty decent because of the price I mean they’re free right so I I think that if people are going to be looking to play Florida and they do have a decent team total I don’t think that they should be a prioritization but they have a decent team total I think that if you’re going to play them you probably end up playing the power play two that way you can still have someone winipeg one because the the distribution between the two different lines and two different Power plays like yeah it’s going to be large but the price difference I think mitigates that and being able to have both Florida and Winnipeg in the same lineup I think um is really really helpful so um Pablo can you can you now hear us I can I don’t know how much did could you guys hear everything I said about Florida or not yeah we we heard everything um oh thank God I was like oh my God I can’t believe I just went on this Florida explanation and then nothing came through okay nope you’re fine okay so I I caught the tail end of that which is that you know you kind of like Florida 2’s price as a way of getting exposure to Florida while not having to not play Winnipeg one mik what do you think about Florida 1 versus Florida 2 yeah I was just saying that K truck’s usually not up on line one and and not to say I mean you got they’re kind of loading line one for this game but Reinhardt might be their best shooter on line to right Lindell and lcer Ryan actually have good uh they played together a good amount so um I kind of like that and what James was saying is power play two um they’re both on there and they’re basically you know free now I don’t know who else I would stack with Luc ran and lundell I don’t know if I would do anybody else on power play to I think you’re kind of reaching if you go to Rodriguez or something or Schmidt but you really could you could go londell lcer Ryan Reinhardt e you get a little bit of Power Play One a little bit of power play two um you got you get some of them on the penalty kill too and I just think uh that’s not a bad four four man stack I would or I mean you could try it with line one too with eblad um but you’re you’re using all your salary so you’re you’re sacrificing your second stack to do that yeah I um the thing about eggplat is like he’s good relative value but he’s been he is 4K because he hasn’t really done [ __ ] this year so um I don’t know I mean I I want him but but it’s not like quite as incred incredibly amazing as you’d think he hasn’t been like the eblad people remember um okay let’s move let’s keep moving because it’s uh locks in 38 minutes and I think people want to build too um so Philadelphia is the next team total uh matchup wise uh can you guys still hear me okay great um philadelph has been a hard team to play this year I mean they’re just they they mix a match their their lines I think have been shifted like almost every game so anyway I’m just context they’ve been a hard team to stack they’re kind of like a weird version of Carolina that’s not as good as Carolina um for what it’s worth um line one and line two look similar last 14 line two has had more High danger chances um and then on the season or on a longer sample line one is is a little better but but pretty darn close um in terms terms of Team Matchup um not bad like decent hsf um and it may be a SLO though right it’s a slower slower paced game not quite as slow as Utah Vancouver but not super fast um and then if we go to range of outcomes um Philadelphia 1 and Philadelphia 2 basically project equally in terms of median which means that the cheaper team by $900 is going to be the one that projects better on a point per dollar basis so you’ve got tippet frost mitkov um and then you’ve got CS connect fair for 900 more projecting pretty darn similarly although Philadelphia 2 projects a little bit better if we look at correlation on Philadelphia um you can get uh line one with um everybody except for fby who’s free at 3700 not free but cheap um on Power Play One um they do have Jamie Dale former Anaheim guy who kind of blows but he is only 3100 on the first Power Play and then you’ve got the second line with tippet frost and um and then you’ve got uh mitkov who’s you know the Savior uh for 5100 but he’s on the first Power Play so not quite as correlated as some of the other teams but you can play Minis that are a little more correlated it’s not the end of the world by the way to play a line that has a couple guys that are not in the same power play so I I sometimes people get caught up on that like oh I can’t play tippet Frost and mitkov because mitov is on power play one and tippet forer or tippet and frost on line two for power play I mean they might they might only get two power plays so you’re talking about especially the second power play may only get 40 seconds of ice time for each power play so we’re talking about you know 80 Seconds of correlation right yeah so let’s not let’s not overreact to the power play I do like to get power play correlation with my forward line but I think it’s just worth pointing out that I do think sometimes people overweigh that especially for the second line that for most teams only gets like the last 40 seconds or so of each power play so um any thoughts from you guys on power on on um on Philadelphia 1 versus Philadelphia 2 I can’t tell you I’m super excited in that game environment or in these players but um I guess if it’s like it’s kind of like an off the radar you know like you know Val sort of value is I just think we just talked about how much value there is on Florida 2 Detroit to um even you can go more balanced and play Dallas one or two I don’t know that I want to go like for almost the same price and play a Philadelphia team where I’m not quite as excited about the matchup yeah um one thing that I’ll say is um I’ll take it a step further of saying that like you you would prefer to have your your forward line be combined on the power play but it’s kind of like pitch pitch type data at that point like yeah maybe one of your hitters is better against a slider on a team and so you try to include them but they’re probably only going to get actually like four sliders to swing at in the entire game and if they’re batting 400 against those like one of those might be a hit so I I I kind of look at it that way I think that um maximizing correlation to a team based on their team total and based on hoping that they break the Slate is better than um trying to maximize all the the micro correlations so I don’t mind doing something like that and mixing power play lines I don’t even really mind all that much if I really like um you know a couple guys out of a forward line I don’t mind mixing one with another guy who is on the same power play but is not on that line if I’m going to do like a three man for a secondary um but overall I I don’t know why you would really get down to Philly unless you’re gonna mme um they’re okay but we have they’re probably like the fifth best stack maybe sixth um and they don’t necessarily represent that much value they’re fine but like I think you probably still I would still prefer Detroit 2 I’d probably still prefer Florida Power Play 2 over them for Value so I don’t know you can get there um they’re okay they project good um Florida fl2 is like one of the better 2x percentages in the in the range of outcomes but I don’t know it would be hard for me to get there for a full stack yeah Mike yeah I’ll just say that and now they’re going to score three Power Play Goals but you don’t you don’t play Philadelphia for their power play they’re just not a very good power play um but mitchoff uh is is talented and he and he’s cheap enough where you got to look at him um even Bobby Brink maybe is like I don’t know I I’m at least playing Philadelphia as like a one-off maybe Dale um but uh kkny you know you could play him as well but then cachur and farab is now 3700 when he was 3,000 it was a little easier to swallow so I’m one one offing uh Philadelphia if I go there but I’m with James it’s I’m not in love with playing them tonight um really quick I’m gonna have to hop off here in a minute um you guys feel free to keep going I’m going to leave the stream up but I have another meeting that I got to go hit uh so just wanted to let you guys know cool thanks James yeah so just so folks know I’m sort of building some hand builds as we’re doing this a little bit because we got 30 minutes to lock and I don’t want to really quick really quick if you wanted to share your screen still Pablo I think you’re stuck on the range of outcomes right now you haven’t been sharing the screen that you’ve been looking at so just wanted to do a little editor thing there for you there you go okay okay okay okay um so anyway um thank you uh I will switch my sharing so that it shares like the entire Tab and not just um that one screen okay so let’s keep moving because we’re we I’m want to try to get through the last games in in the next five minutes or so five minutes and then we’ll jump y yeah so we’ll kind of do these fast okay yeah so Utah Vancouver Toronto Dallas Minnesota Anaheim we’ll just like let’s look at these in totality the um do any of these stick out in terms of maybe sneaky lower team total games okay so Utah has a decent hdsf and then Minnesota um has an okay one and then Anaheim has like a sneaky good hdsf um um and then of those games um the team the the pace isn’t great except for the Minnesota game which we’re not playing them against Florida I don’t think so it’s really like maybe Anaheim and then theoretically Utah or Vancouver really Utah if you think that there’s like a a better value play on that in that game so let’s look at those at those teams um um let me switch the range of outcomes can you see the range of outcomes yeah I can see great so do any of them stick out um Vancouver one does but I I don’t think I’m paying up all the way to 16.2k for them um so if we scroll down um Anaheim 1 it’s again 16k eh a little pricey so Vancouver 2 you know looks decent at at 13.9 Utah one at 14.6 and then um Utah uh uh uh Utah 3 has really good value according to the sheets uh bu Krauss melli are 8,400 and look like they’re like really really high value play um let’s see if the DFO charts agree with that um if I go to them and I sort B value uh the other way around um Utah nah they’re not really up there so that’s kind of a sheets thing um they they do agree that Utah 1 looks like decent although they’re not a value line they dislikes Winnipeg 3 is a value line um or Winnipeg 2 for that matter so um yeah so I don’t know that any of those really stick out a ton if we go to Team matchups uh let me showare this tab I don’t know why it’s doing this now but and we go to Team totals and scroll down um you can see that in the last 14 Utah 1 and Utah 2 have been dominant so there may be like some statistical reason as to why Utah 3 is jumping in the sheets because it doesn’t look like it from a usage standpoint and then on Vancouver um it does look like Vancouver 2 is getting a lot of the action uh at 13.9 so Utah so sorry Vancouver 2 from a matchup s usage standpoint is the team that sticks out down here and then um I’m not paying up for Toronto one like I’m just not on this late in that matchup so I’m I’m eliminating that so I’m really looking here to see maybe patches if he’s still cheap or n if he’s still cheap sixs out we’ll take a look at them in a second Minnesota’s not really in play based off the matchups we just looked at and then Anaheim um I don’t I don’t think I’d play them outside of like really large field so so let’s go now to um to uh correlation and let me share this tab instead and let’s look at um Vancouver 2 so Vancouver two because they looked good on the matchups and so debrusk Peterson so they’re not that cheap right 5200 6100 that’s like pretty pricey for kind of like a low total away Utah game um they’ll be really low own but but it’s it’s it’s it’s just worth pointing out that they’re not very cheap um and then if we look at the across them in terms of Utah um because sheets really like Utah 3 they are like it is a punt line with three and 2.9 and then 2.5 for melli so if you really really need a punt like a three-man punt you can you can go them but I I I don’t know that I would trust that as like a terribly good play um and then in terms of Anaheim um um you’ve got um line one I don’t know it’s just a it’s a really contrarium play to play Anaheim you know Jackson lcome is probably my favorite play there he’s 3,300 on the first Power Play so I don’t know that I like love anything out of anahim outside from Jackson lcome who’s got a couple goals recently and their first PowerPoint guy at 3,300 um Mike any any thoughts on these cheaper game totals yeah I mean I want to like Utah I I think I do I don’t know I I have trouble playing a rick toet coach team on the road he likes to really clamp down on defense onroad games um but uh Utah too um kolie and Gunther are just like really well correlated now that Cool’s on Power Play One um mcbaine is is you know basically free he’s a third plug he could put in or you could play sergachev and do a power play stack there um the shooters the power player Keller and uh Gunther um but then I mean line one Schmaltz could get hot at any moment and and Keller is is is still you know probably their best score but I really like Utah I don’t know if I’m going to go line three unless maybe melli one off or maybe a mini with bu’s Dad um it’s it’s interesting that they’re they’re sticking out in the sheets um I want to play Utah I’m a fan of they’re kind of like my pseudo like West Western Conference team now that moved and I don’t know um it’s it’s tough uh because I want to play them I’m just something’s telling me it’s not a good play tonight but I’ll probably have some uh Utah too um in a couple lineups I like them yeah so um anyway I think the summary here from my standpoint if we just do this by totals is Winnipeg one Detroit with cop and Kane are cheap if you can fit to Brink cat great mitkov or or Philadelphia 2 is okay Dallas one Dallas 2 okay but like not that cheap um um I think I’d play um Dallas 2 over Dallas one but it’s close Florida interesting eblad is really cheap on the power play Florida 1 is very pricey but won’t be as owned you can play Florida 2 to get exposure to them with londell and list Ryan um Utah maybe with kolie like you mentioned I don’t know that i’ go all the way to line three but I think you can um Vancouver eh like that that that Pon line is just a little pricey for my taste we didn’t look at Toronto um I mean before we close here I’ll just um I’ll just go to Toronto real quick to see you know um if how cheap Like Pat is um because I don’t think I would pay up for anybody on that team tonight so yeah Pat is is is 3.8 um you can play him and nce or just pet ready by himself um you can play oel for 3200 so you know he he he can be active he’s coming off a really good game um where he scor he had an assist and five shots so maybe he’ll get Hot patches has been up and down um he did he did like Nuke like four or five games ago when I played him and he played he put scored 30 but he outside he did have four shots so um I’m sure sheets think he’s really strong value um so you could do worse than like patches with patch ready as a d patches with um oel as a double as a mini um and aside from that I don’t know what else to say I mean I think it’s like Winnipeg one and then if you want to get contrarian play Florida one instead and then find your favorite value line in the form of Detroit or Florida 2 um maybe all way down to Utah three if you need them or Utah two and then if you want it really contrar and play Anaheim and or go or just go balanced and play Dallas with like Philadelphia and like nobody’s going to do that if you’re playing large field I think that’s a very interesting approach not for small field for small field I would just play Winnipeg or or just play up or just play Florida instead yeah it’s a it’s an interesting slate because there’s no like huge pay up spot right even Winnipeg like we say they’re probably the best stacked line well valard makes it pretty cheap you know so when we’re talking about all these like deep values I just don’t think you’re G to need to do that tonight if you uh if you’re not going Toronto one or Florida one um if you’re going one of those then yeah you do need to dip down to $800 players and whatever um but yeah it’s an interesting slate where there’s not tons of pay up spots D dmen you can’t there’s no orensky or any or Yosi on the Slate to pay up for them either um and then goalie is goalie and it’s kind of weird in that I would just Mike any any last thoughts on defense and then we can let people build for 20 minutes yeah yeah um defense there’s not a lot of pay UPS um that I love morsey’s great heis Skin’s great sergachev I like all those Riley if you’re uh if you want to get a piece of Toronto and their power play is not bad and eblad um and Quinn Hughes too obviously with if you’re doing anything with Vancouver you’ve got to consider Quinn Hughes as part of as part of that so that’s kind of where I I land and I pay up for one and and pay down for one it’s probably where I’ll go tonight or you know something like that cool cool cool all right well I wish everyone the best of luck I hope this was helpful and um we will be in the Discord to talk about what we got right and what we got wrong and hopefully everybody wins a bunch of money cool see you all right talk to you guys peace

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