📅 Published on: 2024-12-03 14:00:06
⏱ Duration: 00:28:33 (1713 seconds)
👀 Views: 121 | 👍 Likes: 10
📝 Video Description:
In this episode of Locked On A’s, we take a deep dive into one of baseball’s hottest debates: does spending big in the offseason lead to winning? Using data from 28 seasons of Major League Baseball, we analyze how payroll rankings have historically correlated with playoff appearances and World Series victories. From the Yankees’ dominance in the late 1990s to recent low-budget surprises, we explore whether financial investment is the true key to success or if other factors play a larger role. With a balanced definition of “winning” as making the postseason, we reveal surprising statistics that show spending doesn’t always guarantee glory.
We also discuss the human side of the game, emphasizing the importance of chemistry, leadership, and the “right players” over the most expensive ones. Is baseball too focused on analytics and metrics at the expense of intangibles? With examples from recent teams like the Mets and Marlins, we uncover how payroll is just one piece of a much bigger puzzle. Tune in for an honest look at what really drives success in Major League Baseball.
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
does spending money in the off season really correlate to winning today un locked on a you are locked on a your daily Oakland A’s podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day [Music] welcome to lock on A’s part of the locked on podcast Network where it is your team every day I am your host Boon that’s right one name episodes will drop Monday through Friday at 6: am that’s Oakland Vegas and yes Sacramento time whether you are on your way to work driving back from work or just listening casually during the day thank you for making lockdown A’s your first listen of the day I’m from the bay and I’ve been a DI hard a fan since 81 I’m here to bring you a real fan take covering everything from Oakland to Sacramento to Las Vegas this is the place for Ace fans to get the latest game breakdowns team news and more this is where the passion of the fans take Center Stage we are free and available wherever you get your podcast including YouTube and please hit that that subscribe button wherever you are following the show today’s episodes brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code lockon MLB for $20 off your first purchase it is December which means winter meetings are literally around the corner reagent signings extensions trades it is possibly the time of year where fans actually like this part more than the season itself as every year there is some type of new drama going on whether it is Juan SoDo Blake Snell signing with the Dodgers whatever it may be today I am dedicating a full episode on the question and examine whether spending money actually does correlate with winning the obvious answer is yes 100% it does but I’m not quite sure so let’s see what the numbers actually say in order to look at this from the correct perspective I am taking my data all the way back to 1995 29 years and the reason I am using 1995 is because that is the first year MLB expanded the playoff format from two teams for the American League and two teams for the national league to four teams for each league that format lasted until 2012 when it got expanded to five teams to each league and recently got expanded to six teams for each league in 2022 I am not considering 2020 which was the covid year not because I don’t think it counts and everything any team did should be erased from the record book no not because of any of that only reason I am not including the covid year is because they had eight teams per league for a total of 16 teams in the playoffs which would throw off the data for the other 28 years so yes we will be looking at 28 years of baseball not 29 I am taking a teams opening day payroll ranking out of all 30 MLB teams for each respective season first and foremost most importantly we have to Define what winning is or what success is which can be difficult considering every team has a different definition for what winning is but in order to do this correctly it needs to stay the same for all the teams you cannot simply say winning a World Series is winning and that’s it black and white right can’t do that winning a World Series is very very hard to do in fact since 1995 there has been seven teams that have won the World Series mult mple times the Yankees won it five times Red Sox four giants three and the Marlins Braves Astros and Cardinals won it twice each out of the 20 World Series Championships in the 28 years we are examining seven MLB teams have won almost 75% of the Championships six of those teams had the top payroll in all of baseball all five Yankee titles and the 2018 Red Sox team were the top payrolls in all of baseball five teams were in the top five in payroll for their Championship 1997 Marlins 0407 and 2013 Red Sox teams and the 95 Braves teams all three of the Giants championships they were ranked in the top 6-1 in payroll in all of baseball 2003 Marlins 2021 Braves both Cardinals and Astros titles teams payrolls were outside the top 10 the Yankees run was the last Dynasty we have had but they have not won a World Series since 2009 that’s 15 years I don’t think you can define success or winning by simply winning a world series title that’s just not accurate nor fair since 1995 the top seeds from each league have met in the World Series only six times Braves and Indians in 95 Braves and Yankees in 99 Phillies and Devil Rays in 2008 Phillies and Yankees in 2009 Cardinals and Red Sox in 2013 and the last time that happened was believe it or not this past year with the Dodgers and Yankees on the flip side of that coin the very last seed from each league has gotten to the World Series 13 times with the Bottom seed winning that title five times 97 Marlins 2002 Angels 2003 Marlins 2004 Red Sox and the4 14 Giants there have been two World Series where the Bottom seed or the last seed from each league has gone up against each other 2002 the Angels over the Giants in 2004 with the Red Sox winning over the Cardinals in other words what I am trying to get at is anything can happen in the playoffs therefore the ultimate goal for each team is to Simply make the postseason and that is what we will use to define success and or winning here’s the next question we must answer which is expectations based on your team’s payroll for example the A’s do not have the same expectations as let’s say the Dodgers or Yankees but do the Giants have the same expectations as the Dodgers Andor Yankees in the sense of winning a World Series I don’t believe so but as far as making the playoffs absolutely being from the Bay Area I know this year was an extremely disappointing year for the Giants and why was it disappointing it was disappointing because they spent money they rank 10th in payroll in all of baseball and their expectation was no doubt to make the playoffs I think everybody listening would agree with that the Giants spent money to win with an end goal of making the playoffs 12 teams make the playoffs every single year since 2022 10 teams from 2012 to 2021 and eight teams from 1995 to 2011 we have defined what winning is and now we are going to determine whether spending money correlates to winning are you in the top 12 in payroll since 20122 and did you make the playoffs are you in the top 10 in payroll from 2012 to 2021 and did you make the playoffs are you in the top eight and payroll and did you make the playoffs from 95 to 2011 where did the bottom half of the league in payroll there during these years and were they completely overmatched let’s find out coming up next this episode is brought to you in part by game time take the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets and and more with game time picks I am looking to go to the ners game this Sunday where they desperately need a win when they face off against the Chicago Bears at Levi Stadium what I love about the game time experience is the Allin pricing feature where it shows you the total upfront of your ticket with no surprise fees at checkout it’s the only ticketing app that gives me complete Peace of Mind download the game time app create an account and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code l c k d o n MLB for $20 off download game time today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed we have determined that winning and or success is making the postseason teams spend money to obtain the best possible players to win in order to make the postseason and the expectation we are setting is that if you are in the top 12 in your league in payroll from 20 2022 to 2024 you have spent money in order to win from 2012 to 2021 the expectation is that you are in the top 10 in the league in payroll based on the playoff format for those years was a total of 10 teams five from each league from 2022 to 2024 it was 12 teams six from each league so that is where I’m getting those numbers from the expectation is that you will make the playoffs so again if you are in the top 12 in all of baseball in payroll from 2022 to 2024 you have the expectation to make the playoffs in 2012 to 2021 top 10 and from 1995 to 2011 top eight there were eight teams allowed in the playoffs in those years’s playoff format with all that being said we know it is not possible for all 12 teams in the 2024 playoffs as an example to be ranked 1 through 12 in payroll so how do we determine if spending Act actually equates to winning I am actually going to set the bar considerably low and call it 50% of the teams that make the postseason must rank between 1 and 12 in payroll in all of baseball what does this all mean to make it very clear I’m going to use 20124 as an example 2024 had a total of 12 playoff teams six from the American League six from the national league how we are going to determine if spending correlates directly with winning is that if six teams out of those 12 are ranked between one and 12 in all of baseball in payroll in other words a 50% Mark then yes bending does directly correlate with winning anything below that number will result in no it does not correlate with winning in any exercise you cannot base anything just on one year but believe that 28 years is a long enough period of time to give us a conclusion that may be somewhat accurate now when I created this formula I had no idea what the results were going to entail I just went with it blindly and hey let’s see what happens but before I get into the Raw results let me give you some interesting findings that the data did entail since 1995 the top three teams in MLB payroll have been in the postseason every single year with the exception of 2008 and 20123 and yes those three teams have either been the Dodgers the Yankees or the Red Sox MLB’s largest payroll for a given season has won the world series six times five of them being the Yankees and in 2018 it was the Red Sox four times has the World Series winner been the top payroll and the top seed in the playoffs three for the Yankees and one for the Red Sox from 1995 to 2024 there have been 262 playoff teams this is not counting 2020 teams with a payroll on the bottom half of the league meaning teams that were ranked 16 through 30 in MLB payroll have made the playoffs 77 times or at a rate of 29% there have been a total of 112 teams that have played for an opportunity to play in the World Series in other words made the ALCS or the NLCS and out of those 112 teams 46 of them have been ranked in the top five in MLB payroll for that given season around 41% of the time a top five ranking in MLB payroll gets you an opportunity to go to the World Series okay let’s dive into the results and find out if there is a direct correlation between spending money and winning games let’s break it down by years and the playoff formats from 2022 to 2024 there was a total of 36 playoff teams 12 playoff teams per year out of those 36 playoff teams 21 of the 306 playoff teams were in the top 12 in payroll from 20 2012 to 2021 not including 2020 there was a total of 90 playoff teams 10 playoff teams per year and out of those 90 playoff teams 42 of the 90 playoff teams were in the top 10 in payroll lastly from 1995 to 2011 there was a total of 136 playoff teams eight playoff teams per year and out of those 1036 playoff teams 68 were in the top 10 in payroll exactly 50% when we put everything together from 1995 to 2024 again not including 2020 there was a total of 262 playoff teams and the total amount of playoff teams that were either in the top 12 top 10 or top eight in MLB payroll depending on the playoff format that was used was a total of 131 out of 262 teams are you kidding me exactly 50% when I created this I did not know what the result was going to be and it lands right at 50% not proving or disproving my original take unreal so let’s use 2020 as a tiebreaker why not right okay 16 teams made the playoffs in 2020 and only seven teams that made the playoffs were in the top 16 in payroll so yeah according to my statement and the tiebreakers spending money does not correlate winning but then again I ruled out 2020 uh at the very beginning and the numbers are really so close so tight to begin with there’s really no distinct conclusion at the end of the day what is my big takeaway what is the point to all this I’m gonna get to that up next today’s that episode is brought to you in part by FanDuel when I personally look at a sports book there are two things that are most important to me is it easy to deposit and more importantly is it easy to withdraw FanDuel checks both boxes for me get ready to tackle the NFL action with Bandu America’s number one sports book because right now new customers can bet $5 and get 150 in bonus bets if you win the Vandal Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL all in one place so when you get a hunch in the middle of the game you can check out the latest stats view live play byplay and so much more on the same page where you place your bets just visit vu.com to join today you’ll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $ five bet that’s v.com so what is it does spending money correlate with winning or success with how we have defined winning and or success short answer yes and no as I spoke about yesterday the key to Winning is not getting the best players it is is getting the right players baseball has turned to statistics analytics and basically raw numbers now these numbers are supposed to equate to a salary and the sum of all salary is supposed to equate to wins that’s the idea that is not the case though and this exercise has absolutely 100% proven it but the exercise also hasn’t proven that it does not correlate to winning either so what is the answer I’m going to get to that in this day and age of social media where emotions are often given what they thumbs up or thumbs down behind a computer screen a human element has been lost and in my opinion it has carried over to different aspects of life as well we are all judged by certain metrics and those metrics equate to what your worth is this is no different in baseball either and unfortunately people get lost in the shuffle with these metrics and these statistics they get undervalued the clubhouse guy the togetherness guy the sacrifice guy the get your teammates back gu all get lost in this whole game of Statistics they would trade in a sacrifice guy a together guy a clubhouse guy in two seconds if that meant five homers over 162 game schedule and it’s not even a debate in 2024 the Mets had the highest payroll in all of baseball and had without a doubt a magical year you could credit that to a lot of things but they are nowhere close to what they did without guys like Mark Vientos and Jose acius both who were making near the league minimum middle management in sports whether at the division one college level or in professional sports especially baseball are wonderful at two things saying yes sir to upper management and covering their own ass baseball is so numbers oriented today because it gives the person the chance to justify their action in case of failure not success but in case of failure it protects their job they ask all the questions for a top prospect or free agent how hard a kid throws what’s his velocity what’s his spin rate what is his b speed what’s his exit velocity they don’t ask the right questions does his teammates like him is he coachable is he unselfish is he a good dude you know who they leave those questions for they leave those questions for the kid who no one else wants just in case your first choice doesn’t come your way once again does spending correlate to wins well I’ll answer it this way money gives you an opportunity to get the right players not the best players but the right players over teams that do not spend but if you spend that money on the wrong players it does not correlate to wins So my answer as it was earlier is yes or no so I do hope baseball takes a good long look in the mirror and spends on the right guy not just the guys with the big numbers and I hope the teams that are not spending like the A’s if an opportunity presents itself I hope they open up that checkbook even for a guy that does not meet your quote unquote metrics thank thank you for making locked on A’s your first listen today or your second listen find locked on MLB baseball gurus Sully brings a daily blend of humor and baseball keeping you updated on every rumor and story throughout the off seon find lock on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcasts
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