📅 Published on: 2024-11-30 06:52:03

⏱ Duration: 01:33:08 (5588 seconds)

👀 Views: 1375 | 👍 Likes: 91

📝 Video Description:

This episode truly has it all from breaking news reaction to the best NFL and college football picks.

Warren Sharp and his team of football analysts identify and give to you the best values in the betting market for sides, totals and player props in the NFL and college football!

Plus, Warren delivers his famous, exclusive takes on the NFL and betting followed by this week’s plays in the longest-yard markets!

In this episode, Warren dissects the embarrassing end of the Bears-Lions game and shows how head coach Matt Eberflus botched it completely.

Then Warren and the audience react to breaking news of the Bears firing Eberflus!

Next it’s time for Ryan McCrystal and his College Football Football Rivalry Week picks including Texas at Texas A&M, South Carolina at Clemson and Auburn at Alabama.

Then Pamela Maldonado brings you NFL picks and player prop bets for Seahawks at Jets, Eagles at Ravens and Buccaneers at Panthers.

Plus, exclusive NFL Referee betting insights you won’t get anywhere else from Joe Gibbs!

The Brand New Sharp Football Show! We’ll show you what you need to know!

Topics:
Intro: 00:00
Matt Eberflus was an embarrassment yesterday and today: 4:19
Tua put cold game narrative to bed: 13:37
BREAKING NEWS: Chicago Bears fire Matt Eberflus: 18:51
Ryan’s College Football Pick: TEXAS (-5.5) at Texas A&M: 31:43
Ryan’s College Football Pick: SOUTH CAROLINA (+3) at Clemson: 38:19
Ryan’s College Football Pick: AUBURN (+12.5) at Alabama: 42:47
Pamela’s NFL Pick: SEAHAWKS (-2) at Jets: 49:04
Pamela’s NFL Pick: Seahawks at Jets, UNDER 41.5: 52:18
Pamela’s NFL Pick: Eagles at Ravens, Total 51 points: 54:31
Pamela’s NFL Prop: Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown +140: 58:59
NFL Referee Impact: Steelers at Bengals with Shawn Hochuli: 1:04:00
NFL Referee Impact: Eagles at Ravens with Craig Wrolstad: 1:07:44
The Longest Reward, Warren Sharp’s favorite longest yard prop bets: 1:14:59
The Longest Reward: Taysom Hill longest reception OVER 13.5: 1:19:26
The Longest Reward: Bucky Irving longest reception OVER 10.5: 1:24:58

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🕵️‍♂️ Transcript:

[Music] welcome into the Thanksgiving post Thanksgiving Black Friday Edition of the sharp football show so happy that you guys could be here hope that you guys had a wonderful and fun Thanksgiving with your family Thanksgiving with all the food and the the fixing and the Beverages and the drinks and the potential debauchery that ensues after consuming said drinks and food with family uh but I hope you also enjoy the football you know some of the football uh I I’ll just put it this way know there’s a lot of jokes and memes going around Twitter before or X now before the uh games even started about you know politics and families getting together and how rockus that was going to be potentially and the one thing that could bring everybody together for Thanksgiving was watching Matt Eber flu botch the ending of that Lions Bears football game I think everybody could gather around the TV no matter what your political beliefs are or how much you hate your mother-in-law or whatever is going on in your family and watch that game together and see that ending and everybody would get a good laugh and high five and just enjoy the Ridiculousness of the way that that game ended so um I hope that everybody had fun yesterday certainly from a betting perspective uh we had a great day going six and one and we’ll talk more about that uh later when we get into some special Black Friday discounts that we’ve got for you guys but we have a great show on Deck I know a lot of people today in the content game you know I’m looking at some of the things that that I follow do tend to take Friday off um do tend to take Black Friday off and spend post Thanksgiving uh with their family you know my family’s not far away I’ll be hanging out with them later today of course but uh we wanted to go ahead and drop this show anyways and give you guys our very best of bets from the college NFL prop game like we always do on every single Friday of the football season so we’re here we’re back with you guys great show on Deck we’ve got Ryan mccristal momentarily he’s going to get into some of his Best Bets breaking down three different call football games then we were going to bring in Pam Maldonado she’s going to be breaking down a couple NFL games and props that she likes in those games and a couple of totals as well and then we’ve got of course Joe Gibbs who’s going to be breaking down a couple of the ref angles that we’re going to need to discuss and pay attention to for Sunday’s games and I’ll drop a couple of props that I like as well at the end of the show so completely packed show just like normal just like probably your stomach feels after you on your waistline after that uh nice thanks giving day of eating yesterday um and with that said just want to welcome everybody into the chat um appreciate you guys uh DM pens thanks for doing the show today uh Ron G awesome plays yesterday looking forward to wave two yeah we did wave one if you’re not on board from the uh props perspective on the client side of things hopefully you get on this week because we’re giving it 73% off everything you can get on for one week and get 73% off uh but we did wave one we do these by waves we got wave to coming up uh this afternoon um we’ve got a lot of different people here in the chat and if you guys want to chat with us on a Friday Black Friday you’re sitting around shopping for the next Amazon Lightning deal or whatever you might be doing uh make sure that you guys go over to YouTube search for Sharp football analysis and that’s where you can participate in the chat if you’re following Along on X love you on X thank you so much for that make sure that you go over to YouTube as well subscribe to the sharp football analysis Channel give this show a thumbs up we’re streaming live there and participate in the chat I’ll answer some of your questions and we’ll shout you guys out so with that said Matt let’s go ahead and get on to the first topic all right we got to talk about this Matt Eber flu situation obviously this is where uh the analysis starts with post Thanksgiving game breakdown um and and what could they have done here and this is a trend this is more than just a an occasional thing this is a habit that we’re seeing out of Matt eberl’s situational football that’s costing the Chicago Bears games and this is a team that yeah maybe they shouldn’t have won that game yesterday maybe they were outplayed by the Detroit Lions but they got themselves back into that game and they played well enough down the stretch to be in a position to at worst send that game to overtime with a field goal attempt now the kicker needs to make it but you need to at least get that kickoff and there was no excuse why you didn’t get the kickoff and what I’m going to do in a second is we’re going to play that last uh sequence and Matt I’m going to ask you to pause it at a certain point in time but what I’ve done in this sequence that I don’t know that other networks have shown this yet or zoomed in on this aspect of it yet um maybe they have and so you’re seeing it for the second time but I haven’t seen it anywhere else I’ve got a cutout zoom in of Matt eberl standing on the sideline paired up with what else is happening here in this final sequence and when they cut back to the main shot of not necessarily the all 22 but the main shot of the football field from the sidelines you can see Matt eflu standing here from at least 15 seconds until that ball is snapped uh so Matt why don’t you go ahead and play this clip and I’ll ask you to pause it at a certain point no one touched him and down goes 31 seconds is when you could have called a timeout at 31 seconds you could have called a timeout this is to be AAR Matt get ready to pause it pause it okay this cutout right here Matt you could probably go big screen on this right now and and just take me off of here because we’re only going to do this for a second probably won’t get uh flagged by the uh governmental agencies or whatnot for uh going live here with this clip uh but this circle that I’ve got up here in the top right this is a blowup of Matt iberus standing next to the official now keep in mind that there was 31 seconds on the clock when he was sacked and the play was down the official blew his whistle like signifying that the play is over 31 seconds Flo who’s literally standing next to the side judge could have called a timeout so the Chicago Bears would have had third and 26 with the football at the 41 yard line needing what like four yards to get that uh quote unquote field goal Target line um on a third down play call okay and they would have had 31 seconds uh so even if you’re tackled in bounds after that play you could have run up and um had the field goal because you can’t spike it it’s third and 26 right think of the other thing that allowing you let me slow down the other thing that calling a timeout would allow you to do is set your team up for what to expect and that’s the thing that flu failed to do when the Washington commanders had their Hail Mary shot right he had three timeouts in his pocket and didn’t call any of them and you should be using your timeouts to to prepare your team even if you don’t think you need to stop the clock is to prepare and Coach up your team for what you need them to do and so if you had called a timeout with 31 seconds left what you could have had ready is your field goal unit on the sideline because the odds of you you’re not trying at this point to throw the football down the field and get a first down right you’re not trying to get 26 yards here there’s 31 seconds left what you’re trying to do is get into makeable field goal range and if the Detroit lions are smart at this point in time I’m not sure how they would play it um they may be covering the sideline routes to prevent you from getting out of bounds and thus you need your field goal unit ready so that if you get a 10 yard gain on a pass play in the middle of the field where it’s open that you could get your field goal unit on in time because you cannot Spike the football it would be fourth and 16 at that point and you’re 10 yards closer to the end zone and you need to get your field goal unit so you’ve got your field goal kick ready he’s already taken a couple of practice kicks during the Timeout on the sideline he’s ready to go he’s right at the edge of the the uh the sideline to run on the field you’ve got all the protection unit ready to run on the field if you need to and you’re set obviously you’d love to throw the ball to the sideline and get out of bounds and get those 10 or 15 yards but you may not be able to so you’re setting that up you’re also preparing your quarterback for what he needs to do and where he should be throwing you’re getting your best play call in there you’re having time to do all of these things if you’re using your time out so it’s in addition to just stopping the clock yes but it’s also the coaching that is allowed to occur during this period instead what you’ve got is we don’t get the cut back to this shot until about 15 seconds uh left in the game and you’ll run it here until about six seconds five or six seconds when the ball is snapped and you just watch Matt eberl on the sideline and this guy is standing right next to this side judge this this official right on the sideline who’s staring right down the line of scrimmage and Matty berl is standing there just like you were standing watching your TV just like a Chicago Bears fan was standing in that Stadium just like any of the teammates on the defense are standing there along the sideline as if he is an observer as if he is no ability to do anything or contribute anything watch what this guy does does in terms of he just stands there and Spins his arm like hurry up let’s go guys let’s go like he’s like he’s cheering on a team as opposed to an active coach who could call a timeout and do something about it so go ahead and play this Matt [Applause] third pause it Matt pause it can you go back I I want this full screen don’t don’t don’t pull me up I want you to see how close he remains next to this side judge so if you can grnd it maybe 5 Seconds here if possible okay that’s perfect just play it from here watch Matt Eber flu and watch what this guy’s doing next to this referee it’s third one time out left this is like the light box you could have gotten numbers but just didn’t you better hurry this ister in the making here you’re going to have to do something when it comes down to this play in all right I mean I can’t help but I can’t help but laugh you can bring me back up the this guy Eber flu is standing there doing this like encouraging that he gets both hands into it as if like that’s going to do anything right as if that that as if Caleb Williams is looking at him people are saying this is on cayb Williams he should be more aware I I get it I get it like he technically should he is a rookie quarterback in a difficult situation and he hasn’t shown the ability to be like super cerebral in moments like this you are the head freaking coach you should be the one in charge so I you could throw out the it’s on Caleb Williams stuff as well out the window this is on the head coach for not setting his players up for success and it clearly has shown that he learned nothing after what happened in that Washington manners loss where he was on defense and had multiple timeouts and did not use them an embarrassment to the coaching profession in my opinion standing there acting like a cheerleader while you have a timeout in your pocket he he he would have you know what was funny about this whole thing we were all calling like the jokes were you know how terrible this team looked in the first half you should fire this guy like fire him at halftime has any coach ever been fired at halftime then they come out and look somewhat competent as they get a couple of stops for the Lions and ultimately put up a little a little points and then this guy just goes and and lays the bigger egg possible in the second half a nutcase um he absolutely should be fired uh for sure and I don’t understand I don’t understand I mean good good on the be Bears backers for covering the spread here but this coach just something else um all right Matt let’s go to the next topic [Applause] this one is another look back to the games yesterday and I think at this point I know it’s going to continue to be brought up because of the results from yesterday but at this point um is my belief that we should bury the the the Dolphins in cold weather narrative um Tua goes out there and throws 37 of 46 for 365 yards two touchdowns and no interceptions it’s not that they can’t win in cold it’s not that Tua can’t play in the cold it’s not that uh this team isn’t built for that they just can’t beat good teams they are not fundamentally sound in All Phases of the game you know they’re their short passing attack is definitely there to sustain offense and to be productive they go out there they get a stop defensively the first series of the game the ball’s punted back and they fumble it and set up an easy seveno for the Green Bay Packers um the right now the Miami Dolphins have shown no ability to run the football right they’re not giving their support to Tua and the passing attack with the running attack um we know that they’re not explosive right now this season since Tu has comeback I tweeted out some uh statistics on this yesterday that this offense went from the second most rate of plays of 20 plus yards last year to like the 25th most rate of 20 plus yards this year with two a back at quarterback right obviously take out the games that he wasn’t playing that’s not how they’re designed right now and and you can’t just tell me that it’s because or I’m not saying you can’t tell me it’s a fact that it’s not just because they’re trying to get the ball out quicker from Tua because of his injury that’s what they were doing last year as well they had one of the quickest time to throws they were trying to get the ball out super quickly last year as well um because Tua had all those injuries and missed the end of the season the year before that last year Mike McDaniel starting the 2023 season overhauled everything right he they were using High rates of play action throwing the ball at the quickest time to throw of anybody but still pushing the ball a little bit down the field that is not what they were able to do this year they’re still getting rid of the ball quickly but it’s not going down the field as much and they’re not having those explosive plays they were getting more explosive Play support last year from the Run game that has evaporated as a has been used more in the ground game they have lost some of their explosiveness in the ground game and they have little explosiveness in the past game as well they were pushing the ball down the field a little bit more in the past they were having opportunities to attack further down the field in the past to the perimeter and they’re not having those abilities this season and so this offense is not nearly as explosive they’re not able to put up points as quickly in games they have to have sustained methodical offense but they’re getting very little support from their ground game right now be at the offensive line be at the fact that aan is being used a little bit more I mean I thought most are getting a little bit more involved in last week’s game add a little bit of punch but aain had seven carries for 14 yards that’s two yards a carry mostard had five carries for 19 yards that’s 3.8 yards per carry is not the type of production on the ground that is going to be able to support your offense then of course you on the defense kudos to the Green Bay Packers Matt laflor for for game planning ways to attack this uh this defense of course we saw they were down um Corners to enter the game and then they lost multiple Corners during the game and there was very little opportunity we saw that the Packers would try to turn to the run a little bit they’re up you know 14 points they’re up 16 points let’s come out and run the ball a little bit they didn’t have a ton of success running the ball so they just like screw this let’s just pass it because passing is so efficient and they’re just picking up a first down okay we’ll run it one or two times to turn the clock then we’ll pass it again um to to make sure that we convert the first down um when they needed to they just threw it and they were having success because of their edges uh in both pass protection as well as the cornerback play of the Miami Dolphins so I don’t like the narrative that Dolphins can’t win in cold weather I think the narrative is that dolphins are St still failing to beat good teams in the NFL and they cannot run the ball and they cannot support their their offense right now and um you know they’ve got a lot of uh work to do this off season still it’s unfortunate but the answer is still they’ve got to figure out something else that they can do here uh because you know this is just a team that’s not that serious right now that’s not a serious Contender um in the AFC and I don’t think if you started the season with a team in similar shape except healthier they would be in contention for the AFC so I don’t know the strategy they need to take I’ll spend a lot of time looking at that in the off season but they’ve got to come up with some other uh some other things to do uh Brett says McDaniel’s play calling in key moments was awful um supposed genius mine I don’t disagree that um McDaniel sometimes does have poor play calls um they fired ebra Flo are we serious here are we serious here do we get Eber flu fired somebody in the chat tell me if the if Chris is correct here did we get e flu fired bears are firing mat eus I see it here wow okay we are correct they need to fire this guy and he was fired I also want to say this this is the most hilarious thing I tweeted this out earlier today this is this is just breaking news this is awesome um Let me let me try to this is crazy uh this is crazy Matt eberl has been fired by the Chicago Bears obviously welld deserved let me go to one of my tweets from yesterday where I wrote this uh let me find it here oh my God Thomas Brown is the interim head coach These Guys these guys don’t know what they’re doing Thomas Brown I don’t know Tom Thomas Brown is not um a great interm head coach but I mean at the end of the day it doesn’t matter um the season is obviously for but uh I would not I would certainly not be entrusting Thomas Brown with being my interm head coach I don’t think that he is uh fit for that let me just get in here um and type this up because I do want to say one thing here on this before we move topics Matt why don’t you bring it Ben Johnson to save the day okay uh Matt why don’t you pull up some of these guys comments while I’m trying to type up this tweet um so DM pen says fired the day after Thanksgiving that’s rough but necessary all right we got the chat yeah this is this is this is wild uh that we just so happen to be live here after I spend the first part of the show um commenting on this guy he had the Press he had a press conference earlier today um what did he say he had a press conference earlier today where he said the following uh where is it here he said the operation wasn’t fast enough on the final play he acknowledged that calling a Time out right when Caleb Williams was sacked was an option an option he says that was an option as opposed to being a requirement just ridiculous from mat eberflus to say that that was an option now I get it why is he coming and why are they forcing him to do a press conference and then firing him the last minute are they were they waiting to fire him to see if he was going to take responsibility for that because here he’s coming out and saying that it was an option uh the calling the timeout was an option when he should have said that we messed up we should have called the timeout that was on me would they not have fired him if he said that like this is the most bizarre thing that they waited until this morning to fire maybe uh they decided to have their meetings this morning and then make their decision but why make the guy do a press conference um I know the Bears fans their feedback on this is that he should have been fired a long time ago and my opinion is the same you cannot bring a quarterback in uh a Young quarterback a a a top drafted quarterback in Caleb Williams and have him working with Matt eberl and have him working with the offensive coaching staff that they brought in this season you needed to fire Matty iberus after last season bring in an offensive minded guy and have him work with Caleb Williams now Caleb Williams rookie season is gone and you have very little uh time the time is ticking so quickly on these young quarterbacks with regard to the value that that rookie contract is able to give your team that rookie deal contract where you’ve got those four years where the quarterback salary is the cheapest and the best bargain that you will ever get if he ends up being good and if he doesn’t end up being good then it doesn’t matter but if he is good in that period of time where he’s got those four years for you at super cheap that’s when you can take Leaps and Bounds and have a lot of success and they just wasted that first year by not firing Matty E burus before this season and then they’re psychologically messing up Caleb Williams by having him work with all these coordinators this is now going to be like the the what is it the second or third guy that he’s working with from a play calling perspective none of these guys are any good we knew that they weren’t good before the season started in terms of the system that he’s in the offense the play calling the support structure uh the coddling the the the coaching that would take place after losses the film study like you need a guy in there who’s going to be good at all of these things to help your Young quarterback and this guy was these guys that they’ve had supporting Caleb WS have been terrible so um we’re gonna we can come back to this at other points in time uh I see your guys comments uh yeah no never never I am definitely not qualif to be a head coach or an offensive coordinator I like working with offensive coordinators play callers sometimes they are head coaches sometimes they’re just um offensive coordinators uh I’ve also worked with quarterback coaches um and and know a number of them around the NFL and some of those guys maybe are do a coaching position you know from a play calling perspective but certainly not qualified to to be doing any of that full-time um but they need to bring in somebody with an offensive-minded mentality who is good with working with young quarterbacks and I can think of a few such guys some of them are employed that might be getting fired that could work with Caleb Williams potentially in Chicago but definite mistake to keep mat eberflus on to start this season and uh at least he’s provided a lot of good content for us I mean I’m in the content game now as well and uh opened the show showing the clip of Matt eflu standing on the sideline like a cheerleader watching the time tick off the clock rooting for his team like you were on the Sidelines if you’re a Chicago Bears fan at your home watching the game on Thanksgiving just a a a disgrace as to what he was doing and not understanding that he’s the one who’s losing these games for them okay with that said let’s get into Ryan we’re backed up here with uh with our content so uh Matt hopefully Ryan’s still here let’s bring Ryan on oh wait wait wait wait wait I’m sorry I’m sorry before we bring Ryan on a couple things Matt bring me back all right got a couple of things to get into here uh the first one is our um our Black Friday sale gone 30 minutes haven’t talked about the Black Friday sale in detail so you can see it in the top leftand Corner use the code sharp 73 you get 73% off everything on the website why 73% off because our computer totals are hitting 73% this year they’ve been doing outstanding this is the bread and butter this is how I got into the game years and years ago decade ago is by being accurate with my computer totals and we are still having the same level of accuracy years decades later um we went 5-0 on Monday we went six- one on Thanksgiving yesterday and we also hit not included in that record four different Longshot bets of plus 250 plus 350 uh those don’t get included in that because those are long shots but they do get included in a dollar amount and the $100 better is now up over 11,000 this season following the play so use the code sharp 73 get 73% off anything on the website that includes getting on board just for one week you want to get on board for one week for like 20 some dollars try it out get on board for one week I highly encourage you get on board for the rest of the regular season the price drops massively 73% off for these type of results it’s my best season that we’ve ever had I don’t understand why you wouldn’t just try to get on board for the full rest of the season uh let’s TR and try it out that way because it is the best deal uh we are 59 % overall this season 306 wins and 214 losses Ian 59% you you could say Well we’d like to be 6 Som odd percent we’re 73% on the small sample size stuff right the computer totals 73% you can see in the top left there our elevated props were hitting 63% of the strongest props that we like the most uh but overall for over 500 plays this season with high volume hitting 59% that is how you make a bunch of money betting the NFL uh 59% on a ton of plays and that’s where we’re at over 500 plays one over 300 of them 59% the other thing that I want to get into quickly is uh we partnered up with sleeper and if you’re not familiar with what sleeper is it is an app that you can get on your phone I highly recommend you go download the sleeper app today because you can get a $1,500 match if you use the code sharp when you sign up so you deposit $500 they’ll deposit $500 you deposit $100 they’ll deposit $100 you get your account balance doubled up to $1,500 this is free money that you can then use to spend playing on basically picking more or less than player props it’s it’s a tricky thing to way to say it because it’s a it’s a fantasy site but you’re you’re you’re using a lot of the player prop ideas that I am sh sharing and giving out two subscribers and you’re basically parlaying those together um so go over to sleeper and use the sleeper app and you can get more than you you’re you’re getting um you can pick Bucky Irving more than his rushing yards or less than his rushing yards and you pair it with something else um at least two and so you’re basically pairing these two things together it’s a way to get down on player props and to increase your payout on these player props and we are giving you a ton of those over at sharp football analysis to subscribers $1,500 price match if you use the code sharp the other thing is what Matt is playing here on the Boost if you go in there today if you sign up today use the code sharp you will also see this um on your account where you spin this wheel you hit like Spin and it’ll go through and give you a boost on one selection uh a profit boost a payout boost of up to 100% so in this case I’m Rec I recorded my screen I spun it I got 30% but you could get more or less than 30% when you spin it yourselves they also have a couple of um discounts I think it’s Lamar Jackson and Joe burrow they’ve reduced their yardage props for Sunday’s games and so if you want to go in there and add them to uh the the the two that you are P to two props that you’re pairing together you can get those at a massive discount sometimes they even do uh like free squares where it’s like uh CJ strad over half a yard and you can pair that with something else so at any rate use the code sharp go get the sleeper app get up to the $1,500 match do it today so that you can get this boost and you can put some of the props that we’re giving you uh in a parlay I highly recommend that you go and check that out okay let’s get to college football and I’m going to bring on Ryan mistal now r Ryan is hitting 58% on the show on over uh 30 some odd plays so that’s a really strong uh win percentage we’re going to try to get it back over 60% he’s got three games today and we’re gon to dive into the first one Ryan Texas minus five and a half at Texas A&M the 10 and one Longhorns are ranked third and they’re visiting the Texas A&M agies who are ranked 19th now Texas A&M narrowly lost to Auburn last week you gave us Auburn we cashed on Auburn last week winning outright 43 to 41 in an overtime Thriller that I don’t think I’ll soon forget that was a lot of fun being on the right side in that game and uh winning in multiple overtimes uh the game is in Auburn and you are taking sorry the game is in Texas A&M but you are taking the Longhorns minus five and a half the winner will advance to the SEC Championship Game to Face Georgia so why don’t you tell us Ryan why you like Texas in this spot yeah really excited for this game biggest game of the weekend clearly probably the biggest game in Texas A&M has played since they won the 1939 National Championship in the sugar goal possibly the biggest game has ever been played in College Station because the winner of this obviously huge rivalry game that they haven’t played in 11 years winner goes to the SEC Championship it’s essentially a conference semi-final game right here obviously the winner basically locks themselves into a playoff spot it would seem or at least Texas A&M would set themselves up for a chance to get to the playoff loser if Texas Anam loses they’re out for sure if Texas if Texas loses their spot is iffy they’re probably still in but they would not have a very strong resume so they would very much be put themselves on the bubble if they can’t win there’s a bunch of reasons here though why I like Texas to win this game and cover the spread the first big factor it’s the Texas offensive line it’s probably the best unit in the country which is critical to be strong in that area going up against Texas A&M because their strength on defense is that pass rush I think Texas is able to shut down that pass rush and gain a pretty significant Advantage here Texas ranks 10th in the country an opponent adjusted pressure rate allowed and that’s particularly impressive because of the style of offense that they play Quinn yers takes a traditional dropback of three or more yards the 10th highest rate in the country you’re taking a traditional dropback you’re G to see a lot more pressure than if you’re playing in a faster paced offense the teams that rank near the top in this category are often air raid teams teams that just get the ball out to kind of Dink and dunk in that fast uptempo offense down the field they negate the pass rush by just getting rid of the ball too fast Texas actually you were sits back in the pocket a fair amount and for him to for them to still rank in the top 10 and pressure rate allowed just shows how dominant those five guys are on the offensive line so I think that’s one area where they held an obvious advantage and negate Texas am’s greatest strength the second Factor relates to that a little bit is it’s the passing attack and the way that Texas attacks now last year we saw Quinn y really improve as a downfield passer and throw down field quite a bit it’s a big part of their offense when they had Xavier worthy and AD Mitchell those guys are in the NFL now so they’ve had to adjust a little bit because they don’t quite have the weapons to stretch the field as much as they did last year in fact 56% of you throws travel five or fewer yards down field that’s the seventh highest rate in the country so even though he’s dropping back at a high rate sitting in the pocket he’s not finding receivers downfield so he’s having to settle for a lot of shorter throws and that’s a problem in some games I think that could be a problem for Texas in the playoff in certain matchups but it’s actually a perfect way to attack this Texas defense they have a pretty good deep secondary they’ve defended the Deep ball well underneath routes they’ve struggled a little bit in fact on throws five or fewer yards down Field Texas San mes 124th yards allowed per reception I talked about the stat just last week in that game against Auburn it was one of the reasons why we were on the Auburn side was because Auburn liked to do a similar thing attacking with some shorter throws and it was an area where I felt like even Auburn’s relatively weak offense would be able to attack this A&M defense Texas Texas obviously a much more talented offense that Auburn has and they have sort of that same style where they can attack underneath and exploit this weakness in Texas A&M the third Factor flipping over to the other side of the ball is Texas’s run defense I think Texas probably has the best defensive unit in the country so it’s going to be a little bit of a mismatch for that A&M offense to begin with but schematically I think Texas also matches up really well well against this Aggie offense Texas’s defensive coordinator Pete qu Kowski he likes to line up in a 335 formation a lot we’ve seen this across college football in recent years with more teams going to this three3 five or sometimes a two4 scheme and just getting better athletes on the field because you have to cover more ground in college football with the wide hash marks you want faster athletes on the field so that’s what Texas does as their base defense and it’s the perfect way to stop Texas A&M because Texas A&M’s offense run by their new offensive coordinator Colin Klein in his first after coming over from running this similar system at Kansas state for a while where we had a lot of success there they use the quarterback Marcel Reed to run a lot and they also with their running backs they like to run outside the tackles try to get them opportunities in space on the outside so having better athletes on the field in this three through five formation that Texas lean on is a good strategy against that type of offensive scheme you don’t need big bodies because they’re not running right up the middle very often in fact Texas they rank fourth in the country in yards per attempt allowed to running backs on the outside giving up just 2.7 yards per attempt that’s critical to stopping A&M’s running backs because they rank second in the 61% of A&M’s attempt are outside the tackle Texas perfectly built to stop Texas A&M’s running backs as far as stopping Marcel Reed I think Texas can do that too gonna turn to opponent adjusted data here because you know rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks has a lot to do with what types of quarterbacks you play right but based on opponent adjusted data Texas is allowing 23% per fewer yards than expected to quarterbacks this year they RS 14th in the country so Marcel Reed is a threat he’s probably going to have a few big runs by getting outside the pocket but overall Texas has done a great job of shutting that down so you know that’s three really critical factors in this game that we just went through three critical points of emphasis and all three pretty emphatically side with Texas so I think even though this is going to be a tough environment for Texas on the road this is a veteran Texas team that has been there before obviously they played in the playoff last year they went to Alabama and beat Nick Savin Alabama team last year on the road they are tested for this road environment so I don’t think they’re going to be phased I like Texas to cover this spread and possibly win pretty easily all right well we will be on Texas with you my friend and let’s move to another game in the SEC we got South Carolina catching three points taking on Clemson eight and3 South Carolina 9-2 Clemson South Carolina is riding a five-game win streak Clemson is riding a three game win streak both these teams played cupcakes last week wford and the Citadel show us why we should be backing South Carolina taking on the three taking the three points in Clemson Ryan yeah if you’ve been following the show the second half of this season this is going to sound a little bit repetitive because we picked against Clemson a few times but it’s really all about the Clemson run defense it’s one of the worst in the country looking at opponent adjusted data Clemson ranks 106th in yards allowed before contact to running backs and 109th in yards allowed after contact so they’ve been a bad matchup you know they’ve gone into a few games with a bad matchup you know we bet them against Louisville ear this year when Louisville won unfortunately we also bet that Virginia Tech game which didn’t go as well but we didn’t know going into that game that Virginia Tech didn’t have a single healthy running back so that uh that blew that out of the water but you know South Carolina they are actually probably the worst matchup that comes has faced All Season or at least that’s the Georgia game obviously but looking at all of Clemson’s opponents this year if we go back and look at that their situational data nobody runs the ball at a higher rate overexp expected than South Carolina and they do so with a power running game which has been a problem for Clemson this year 230 pound running back rocket Sanders is the focal point of their offense so they’re going to try to run the ball down Clemson’s throat they try to run the ball down everybody’s throat and that’s just happens to match up with the perfect way to attack the Clemson defense now maybe Clemson tries to adjust some things on defense knowing that they’re going to do that but I don’t think there’s really anything Clemson can do because even if you look at Clemson’s numbers with a stacked box when they’re stacking the Box against teams they still rank 111th in yards allowed per attempt to running back so there’s really been nothing that they’ve been able to do to adjust to improve this run defense with it being the one thing that South Carolina leans on week after week I don’t see any reason to think that they’re not going to be able to just run the ball and control this game on the ground now we’ve got to look at the other side of the ball because Clemson’s offense has done some damage at times this year so even if South Carolina is able to run the ball up and down the field it’s possible Clemson matches them and puts up a big number by throwing the ball I think this is a bad matchup for Clemson on that side of the ball also though because the strength of South Carolina’s defense is its pass rush if you watch them at all this year you’ve seen possibly the best front four in all of college football and getting after the quarterback in fact on non blitzes South Carolina R is third in the country in pressure rate so they going to get a lot of pressure on Kade kumnick now kumnick is having a good year look at his numbers overall they’re really impressive he’s improved almost as much as any quarterback in the country he put up some big numbers but I think it’s been skewed a lot by the cupcake schedule Clemson has faced even with just within the ACC they’ve had a relatively easy schedule Clemson ranks 75th though in opponent adjusted pressure rate allowed so they are they do not have a good offensive line in fact they’ve never really had a great offensive line under Davos Sween that’s never been this strength of their team despite the fact that they ranked in the bottom half of the country and that opponent adjusted pressure r at there’ve only been four games when Club neck has been pressured at a rate of 33% or higher that’s not even a really high rate 33% pressure rate in college football that’s you know that’s a decent performance by defense it’s not a dominant performance by any means but in those four games where the pressure rate did tick up to 33% or higher clubic only averaged a combined 5.7 yards per attempt so in these games when he has been pressured at a higher rate it seems to have had a bit of a cumulative effect on the offense and really slowed down the passing attack now South Carolina they’ve generated a pressure rate of 33% or higher in seven games this year including five games where they’ve got over 40% just really dominated so against this Clemson offensive line I think the edge clearly goes to South Carolina and based on how we’ve seen kumnick perform in these games where he’s been under a lot of pressure I don’t think Clemson is going to be able to put up the type of passing numbers they’ve had a few times this year so I think Clemson controls this game on the ground from start to finish I think Clemson has a hard time keeping up I think South Carolina covers this three-point spread and probably wins outright outright well we would not mind seeing that anytime we’re taking a short dog love to bet a little bit on the money line as well Ryan so that would be great this one is not a short dog this is a big dog big dog Auburn plus 12 and a half taking on Alabama that line is still 12 and a half at DraftKings for example but if you go to some other shops it’s down as low as 11 I’m seeing at 13 at Pinnacle uh so this line is all over the place so you guys need to shop around if you’re looking to ride with Ryan on this next game but Auburn off of that overtime upset travels to Tuscaloosa to take on the 8 and3 Alabama Crimson tied which suffered a massive upset against Oklahoma last week losing 24-3 Auburn has not won in Alabama since 2010 Ryan this is the iron ball love the Iron Bowl always tune in to the Iron Bowl it’s one of my favorite big rivalry games in the college football calendar show us why we should be backing Auburn catching this big number at Alabama off of that overtime Thriller yeah I feel like the iron B is kind of flying under the radar this year with both these teams coming off a loss last week but it’s still very much an important game I mean it’s going to be hard for some of these teams with the pressure on them in this final week this rivalry week to close out spots into the playoffs and Alabama sitting right there on the outside if they win this game and one or two teams loses maybe we see an ACC team lose and they no longer have two spots locked up you know or we get another upset somewhere else you know it’s going to be hard for some of these good but not great teams to close it out we saw it just Thursday night tane had a chance to lock up a spot where they would be very much in contention for a playoff spot if they just won out and they laid an egg against Memphis so it’s going to be hard for those types of teams to close out these games with all that pressure so I think this is still a critical matchup with playoff implications if Alabama’s to win the reason I’m on Auburn in this game though I was shocked that this was a double- digit spread if you look listen to the show last week you’re probably not surprised that I’m not Auburn again based on everything I said in my reasoning for taking them against Texas A&M they can run the ball Jara Hunter is one of the best most physical running backs in the country they can move the ball on the ground and the key to beating Alabama is running the ball and controlling the clock we’ve seen it in all of their losses this year last week against Oklahoma the soon as had 50 rushing attempts they held the ball for 34 minutes they lost of Vandy earlier this year Vandy had 54 Rush attempts held the ball for a ridiculous 42 minutes in that game their loss against Tennessee now Tennessee runs a very uptempo offense they didn’t dominate time of possession because they never do with their style but they did turn to the Run game and lean heavily into it ran the ball 43 times now teams that win games run the ball more obviously we know that just looking at rushing attempts is not the key but man when you’re getting over to over 50 rushing attempts that’s like triple option type number so these teams were able to just dominate Alabama on the ground and lean very heavily on the run and that’s what Auburn wants to do they want to be in this type of matchup and it’s exactly how you beat an Alabama team looking at this matchup a little bit in terms of how these these two particular teams match up based on opponent adjusted yards before contact Auburn ranks 40th Alabama ranks 74th so Auburn should be able to push that defensive line around a little bit and create some room yards after contact this is JZ Hunter bread and butter they rank second in yards after contact per attemp Alabama is good in this area they rank 17th but still a slight Edge towards Auburn and then we have to point out injuries this is probably going to be the worst defense of a kind of mediocre Alabama defense to begin with that we’ve seen all year they lost starting linebacker last week Deontay Lawson they were already playing without starting strong safety Keon SB which hurts their ability to stack the box without that extra safety also playing without starting Edge Defender quandarius Robinson they’re down some big key important players to stop this run game so I think it’s going to be an even worse unit this week than we’ve seen from them in some of these other games so I’m expecting this to just be the jarz hunter show I think JZ Hunter has a huge day I like Auburn to keep this game very close maybe even win outright I don’t think it’s crazy even with a 12-point spread to think that Auburn could just simply dominate this game and pull out a close win all right Ryan so you got an outright dog potentially in Auburn catch upwards of 13 shop around you can get a 13 on this one now uh you’ve got an outright dog that you like in South Carolina potentially at Clemson but grab the points there they are catching three um and then of course you’re laying the short number under a touchdown you can get five if you’re shopping around on the Texas Longhorns taking on Texas A&M on the road three great games one’s at noon one’s at 3:30 1’s at 7:30 tomorrow a busy schedule uh so Ryan I’ll let you get back to enjoy the college football games that are on right now and thanks for joining us as always make sure that you guys are following Ryan over on X you can see his Twitter handle if you rewind a little bit and of course he writes up all these games with detailed analysis over at sharpfootball analysis.com there’s Ry M Crystal’s uh X handle so make sure that you are following him over at X quick reminder that you can go to sharp. foot to get in on our Black Friday special we are running 7 3% off everything on the website that is an insane discount on anything a weekly a monthly a season long package you can get it all there all the prices for the rest of season packages have been discounted and you can still get it at this price we are talking you can get in for just around $30 per week if you buy a season long package and that is insane for the amount of information that we are sharing and the records that we’ve had this season where we have given over 500 betting recommendations and are hitting 59% you don’t get results like that every year this is our best year ever I’ve been doing this for nearly 20 years now and I’ve never had a season as strong as this 5-0 Monday night six- one last uh last night in Thanksgiving games I highly recommend you get involved using sharp 73 on the website and make sure that you go over to sleeper and enter the code sharp when you sign up they’ll price match you up to $1,500 and get involved that way um all right let’s go to uh Pam we’ll bring Pam in we’re going to hit several NFL games and the first game up Pam is Seahawks at Jets we’ve got a big game here for Aaron roders off the buy there was a lot of speculation would Aaron Rogers even play this game then they say yes Aaron Rogers is playing Aaron Rogers off the injury report for the first time in a while Aaron Rogers is feeling strong that being said you’re fading The Narrative that Aaron Rogers is going to have a good game pay you’re looking at the Seattle Seahawks which is down to a pick them at most spots so you don’t actually have to lay any points this line when there was speculation that Aaron Rogers was not going to play this line got as high as two two and a half it is back all the way down to being a pick them the total is sitting at 42 to 41 41 being a key number so I’d shop her on if you’re looking to join Pam she is going to be going on the Seahawks and the under Pam you’re off of a great week last week on the show I think hit every single thing except for one you had like seven recommendations I think you went six and one here so let’s continue the hot streak what do you like about the Seahawks and the under in this one well if the line is down to Seattle as a pick them I love that even more because the article I wrote it at two and now it’s down to a pick so I love the Seahawks definitely to win this game and then the under on 42 because of the Jets defensive struggles post uh Robert Al ever since they got rid of him it was the strength of this team where is it gone it’s kind of like completely diminished ever since uh firing him it’s just a different story the Jets are 31st in points per Drive which is the Jaguars and the Raiders and in their passing game they’ve been exposed giving up eight yards per pass attempt that’s 27th in the league the Seahawks have one offense past the ball so we know even if it is inefficient at best um we know that that’s what they’re going to be doing um that’s where with the New York and the Jets defense they’ve taken just a major step back here over in the last few weeks they don’t have a strong offensive output to help with this team in any sort of way so for me this is just a recipe for a low scoring struggle from the Jets offense now what I do like about backing the Seahawks is their defensive surge this is a team where maybe they’re a little bit a nept offensively but the defense has really been humming here as of late um their defense has been really hot over the last three games they’ve opponents to 6 point 6.8 yards per pass attempt despite facing some pretty good quarterback categorized Matthew Stafford Brock per Murray they’ve also been one of the best teams at getting off the field Seattle’s defense has held opponents with without 38% of their possessions that’s the third best raid in the league now against the Run they’ve been even more Stout um over the past three weeks James Conor eight yards on seven carries Christian mcaffrey 72 yards on 19 carries tyon Williams 69 yards 22 attempts so if the Jets do try to get anything going with the ground game or if it’s even Aaron roggers whoever is under Center if he decides to play not play whoever the backup it’s going to be forced to throw it’s hard to see New York putting up any bit of points now which is also why like the under on 41 and a half because both of these teams their defenses still makes up it’s two teams that are going in opposite directions defensively but neither offense is lighting it up we know about all of the problems with the New York Jets Aaron rodis just hasn’t been the same in his return this season he hasn’t built any type of Rapport from any of his receivers um there’s even like Garrett Wilson they’re just not maximizing the talents of the players that they have on roster so I don’t have any confidence that again Seattle defense that that’s going to change all of a sudden just because Aaron Rogers says hey I am still playing and maybe I want to play again next year but on the Jets offense pretty anemic quarterback play has been inconsistent the offensive line is shaky they’re struggling to score points but honestly the same could be said about Seattle which is why I took the under last week for Seattle against the Cardinals and for all of the reasons of I don’t like Seattle’s offense and yet they ended up winning the game outright pushing the total under but it was pretty much the again the same Narrative of the Seattle offense didn’t do anything but it was the Seattle’s defense that was able to produce now they do have capabilities more so on Seattle they’ve leaned heavily on defense in recent weeks but they are playing a more conserv conservative Balan style that’s really limiting the tempo of the game in in their recent matchups I’m thinking that this game is going to be something like 20 to 10 21 to 13 type of style so I’m comfortably taking under 41 and a half but the bottom line is in this matchup why I love Seattle as a pick them why I love the under on 42 is because the Seahawks defense playing at a top tier level as of late the Jets offense is struggling to move the ball the Jets defense want Elite has regressed ever since Ali’s departure so I like back in Seattle making sense pairing it up with the under 42 is more of just like comp complimentary wager to the teams where they’re trending so I like Seattle I love the under on 42 and I think this is going to be another one of those games where you don’t really want to watch but it’s the ones that you tend to make find Value on all right well you’re going to go in an opposite direction here you’re liking low score ugly Style game here Seahawks and the Jets now we’re going to go the opposite direction you got the Eagles taking on the Baltimore Ravens and what is going to be a thrilling game you’ve got two outstanding running backs that switched teams this past off season we’ve got Derk Henry who I know that you love over on the Baltimore Ravens we’ve got saquin barklay who I’m sure you love as well over on the Philadelphia Eagles great running backs quarterbacks that are Mobile going head-to-head NFC versus AFC we rarely see a team like this play another team like this 9-2 versus 8 and4 uh I can’t wait for this game it’s obviously the Marquee game it is the only 425 kickoff there’s only three games that are being played in the late slate Pam two games at 4:00 and one game at 4:25 this is that one game all of our eyes are going to be on it and you like the over at 51 points you can get it widely available at 51 points right now why don’t you tell us why you think this game is going to hit at least 51 points I don’t love derck Henry I love Kane Derk Henry yes he is my favorite player but um yeah I love Eagles at Ravens over 51 points and I want to start first with the Eagles Philadelphia thrives on a chunk plays they’ve outgained opponents in plays of 20 yards or more by 24 plays that’s the largest margin in the league which I pulled from retre bar stat which has been really helpful this season if you’re not utilizing it definitely helpful for Fantasy but he’s also the Eagles are also tied for the league with 12 touchdowns from outside the red zone so this offense isn’t just producing they’re not trying to grind it down downfield they are built to score fast from anywhere on the field Baltimore not a slouch the Ravens lead the NFL and generating explosive plays the most offensive snaps gaining 10 plus yards the most offensive snaps gaining 20 plus yards so to top it off they’re averaging a league High eight yards per passing play simply put the Eagles and the R are two offense that are built to score now I do want to talk about the Run game because the perception is you have two strong running backs two strong rushing offenses these are going to be type of grind and pound type of Team explosive Run games where while everyone else is trying to use game control clock control grind it down play Tempo offenses built off their run games are built for explosiveness Baltimore is averaging 102 more rushing yards per game than their opponent that’s the best differential in the league and right behind them is Philadelphia 944 rushing yards per game so the Ravens ground attack is lethal and Philadelphia’s run defense both of these you can look at them and say hey they’re Stout but neither team has really faced a run game as diverse or as explosive as Philadelphia as Baltimore and we have seen some vulnerabilities at least from the Eagles bejon Robinson had 97 yards 6.9 yards per carry so imagine what the Ravens Duo is going to do between Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry now on the flip side you have the Ravens run defense that is also considered to be Stout and absolutely that’s the best run defense in the league but they showed vulnerability last week susceptible to big plays giving up 6.7 yards per carry to JK Dobbins and another 7.3 yards per carry to Justin Herbert I mean that alone gives me some pause of like was that an off game or is this potential like a leak a leaky faucet that’s could soon explode now you’re going up against a much capable committee Duo from Philadelphia so now you have Eagles Philadelphia Duo Jaylen Herz he could have a monster game and if you just look at both of these teams they don’t do methodical clock control Styles they are Power Players power pushers they want to get downfield and they get downfield quick so instead we have offenses that are designed for explosiveness so this isn’t going to be slow grinded out it’s going to be track me both teams have the Firepower to put up points quickly and that’s exactly what I’m banking on so I love the over on 51 as the play because both both offenses rank at the top and explosive plays both teams dominate The Run game can break off big chunks neither defense has faced an opponent unlike the other built for big plays coming into this with scoring form neither defense has faced a complete offense like what they’re going to see on Sunday and for that I’m thinking this is going to be potentially something like 3634 3128 type of game comfortably over hitting the over on the total so I’ll take over 51 between the Eagles and the Ravens all right and last but not least Pam you’ve got the bucks at the Panthers and we are looking at a player prop in this game I think this game’s going to be a lot of fun I’m interested in seeing how Bryce young plays does he have a continuation of that I shuttered to say Brilliance that we saw against the Kansas City Chiefs defense last week are we going to get some upside from this Panthers team or they going to come back down to earth against Todd BS but you like a player prop here for the Campa Bay Buccaneers which has been a fun bunch of late what do you like and why well when I wrote this uh When I Was preparing for Sunday slate it was on Tuesday and Wednesday before a lot of props were out so I was trying to look for something that was plus money and the thing that I landed on was Rashad white for Tampa Bay anytime touchdown at plus 140 the Bucks have one of the best Red Zone offenses in the league their third in touchdown rate you’re going up against a Panthers defense who probably looked better than they actually are going against the Chiefs last week who just underperformed offensively yet again so I’m not at all worried about that so I think that the Bucks can definitely continue to find success and they’re GNA find their scoring opportunities Rashad white he’s been he’s been he’s founded the end zone six times this season two on the ground four in the air so when you have a player that has this type of Versatility that’s going to make him a nightmare matchup to defend in some of these critical moments now on the other side Carolina’s defense right for picking they’re 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed and middle of the pack against passing touchdowns but to make it ever worse they’re Le field touches per game so I definitely think white could himself can have a monster game it’s a perfect setup for him to exploit some of this mismatches whether he’s used as a runner or even as a receiver and if you just look at game Flow alone with Tampa Bay a six-point Road favorites this game suggest that the Bucks are going to control the tempo that means leaning on white to close out the drives you’re getting plus 14 for him to have a touchdown on something where I think that the Bucks themselves can put up 30 plus points so that’s giving me multiple opportunities right now to get white at plus money multiple ways to find the end zone against a vulnerable Panthers defense that’s probably getting a little bit too much credit after after last week’s uh performance against the Chiefs so Rashad white anytime touchdown plus 140 all right Pam three great games broken them down beautifully thank you so much for joining us this week make sure that you guys are following Pam over on xmat can you throw up her graphic again that is her handle go ahead and follow her over there and of course she is writing up these games and more over at sharpo analysis.com so if you want to get additional analysis I highly suggest that you go over to Sharp footall analysis.com you can read more of what Pam has written breaking down NFL games from a betting perspective from a props perspective up on the sharp football analysis website okay with that being said let’s go ahead and jump into the NFL referee bets and we’ve got a special surprise for you Joe this was brought to us weeks ago by a fan I see you guys in the chat um thank you guys so much for following uh we want to get to some of your comments and some of your questions momentarily but what I will say first and foremost is that one of you guys in the chat is also pretty talented and loves the show and wanted to contribute something to the show it’s taken a couple of weeks for us to actually get it uploaded into into the show so we apologize for that but I want to credit Jimmy meal I think I’m pronouncing it correctly with this next intro to talk about referees there we go so we bring in Joe Gibbs uh you can follow him on X NFL ref stats one uh Joe you’ve got a couple of games to discuss with us this week so let’s dive right into it as uh the show is ongoing let’s first talk about the Steelers at the Bengals and you want to talk about Sean hocky our old Nemesis what do you have to say about Sean hocky by the way before we get into this Joe uh we could bring it to Joe but we’ve got um that Auburn Alabama game that Ryan was talking about where it was 13 you could catch 13 with auburn a pinnacle and a couple of other spots 12 and a half elsewhere that has tooken some sharp sharp money just now that at Circa is down to 10 and a half that at Heritage is down to 10 it is down to 11 or 11 and a half at many other spots so Ryan got involved just in time hopefully you guys are paying attention and bet it just in time because now instead of catching 13 points or 12 and a half you are only able to catch 10 and a half to 11 points at a lot of spots so with that said Ryan uh Ryan great job on getting ahead of the market movement there Joe why don’t you talk to us a little bit about what to expect from Shan hocky when the Steelers take on the Bengals okay so back toback weeks with hocky Le we covered him last week with the uh the lions at the Colts and so here we go again kind of the same story really uh 64% of his overall penalties assessed on the offense that’s number one in the NFL in that combination of false starts and offensive holding they rank number one in penalties per game in those two categories um they call the fewest defense defensive holding defensive pass interference combinations and then lastly the third down play which is the money down the league average is about it’s about 50/50 on offense versus defense as far as calling penalties the hockey league crew 85% of their third down penalties on the offense so right there everything tilts towards the defense having the advantage and he’s eight and two to the end of this season with these games averaging just 38 points so that’s what we’ve got right there straight up the bat big picture with hockey leag divisional home teams that would be the Bengals this week 15 23 and one against the spread in his career 40% divisional totals this is a big one and we’ve talked about this before over the years 2612 and one to the under when Shan hock Le officiates uh divisional matchups that’s 70% to the under um these two actually played uh two years ago 2022 Steelers a seven-point underdog at Cincinnati Pittsburgh one outright plus seven uh it went to overtime 2320 stayed under the total good thing here the Cincinnati Bengals there is well equipped as any team maybe outside of Detroit to handle hocky Le issues as far as the excessive offensive penalties in hard numbers in raw numbers the Bengals offense is the least penalized unit in the NFL so they’re very efficient on the offensive side of the ball and Pittsburgh has actually gotten much better once once Wilson went out as quarterback sorry once Wilson came in as quarterback and and Fields went out they’ve become more efficient from an offensive penalty perspective so both teams should be okay as far as the winner goes I I’d take Pittsburgh plus the three it’s going to be a close game Cincinnati seems to play a lot of close games and I actually hope they win selfishly just to keep them in the mix however faint that playoff opportunity might be a win for Cincinnati at least keeps them in the mix for the AFC playoff hunt but I I’d have to side with Pittsburgh here and obviously the under yeah now we got exile cultiv who said Joe Gibbs absolutely hit the nail on the head with the Green Bay Packers crew last night talk to us about what you were expecting and what you saw in that game the the Packers game last night yeah exactly they were saying you hit the nail on the head there yeah I I put some stuff out on my Twitter account just pretty much what to watch and it kind of was went right on point you know a lot of false starts a lot of defensive pre-nap penalties from the Packers a lot of offensive pre- snap penalties from the Dolphins and the big one and I point this out and people got angry about it in the in the game there was that roughing the passer penalty on Tua that wasn’t called roughing the passer um but the Shan Smith crew doesn’t emphasize that penalty they just don’t but they make up for it with excessive unnecessary roughness penalties and I’ve talked to you about this these Prime Time games for whatever reason actually I think I know the reason they get excessive amount of unnecessary roughness penalties called and that’s kind of where Smith made up for it he called two of those last night but Tua didn’t get that unnecessary roughness penalty that a lot of that a lot of quarterbacks would have got like if that was momes or burrow or someone like that they’d probably get the flag but Tua didn’t get it that was at the end of the game yeah that was so let’s move on to the last game that you want to hit and it’s a game that Pam was on she likes the over in this game I don’t know if your conclusions might draw us in a different direction or not but you can share that with us as the Eagles Take on the Ravens and we’ve got Craig rollad at the head of this one what do you think that Craig is going to bring to the table here and do you think that there’s any looks that we should have from a betting perspective as a result um well to Pam’s point about the over I mean I can you can make arguments both sides for this for either team or the over or the under I’ll give it I’ll say this much Craig roll had seven and four to the over this season but not so fast on that one it sounds good but his games are only averaging 44.8 points that’s only 12th in the NFL he’s seven to four to the over because his totals have been so low 50 and a half I think this one’s at you can make an argument both ways if you told me it was going to be you know 27 720 I wouldn’t be shocked you could tell me it’s 3430 I wouldn’t be shocked so I don’t have an opinion on the total um rollad again we talked about him last week because we did the Packers and 49ers game they put that extra emphasis around the line of scrimmage you know delay of game defensive offsides your favorite penalty I’ll keep going back to it an eligible man downfield this this crew ranked second in the NFL for that particular penalty um Baltimore they’ve played three games with roll said that’s it in the Lamar Jackson era they’re three and0 straight up and against the spread they’ve all been on the road though this will be the Eagles second game with this crew this season if you remember their first one was back in uh week two Monday night football versus Atlanta and that was the most penalized game this season for the eagles they had nine penalties predominantly on the offense uh in eligible man downfield false starts offensive holding So This Crew is going to focus more on the offensive side of the ball and to tail off what I said about hock crew they call a fewest combination of defensive holding defensive pass interference This Crew the roll stag crew call the second fewest of defensive holding defensive pass interference they also call very few defensive penalties on third down so when you look at it like that the defenses should have the advantage here I like Baltimore in the game I like teams when they’re going into the buy but look if Philadelphia wins a game I’m not going to be shocked but but I do like Baltimore in this one okay so we got ref Craig rollad lean a little bit towards Baltimore we appreciate that Joe two games to be on the lookout for the Steelers Cincinnati Bengals game pay attention to Sean hocky in that one and we’ve got the game The Joe is talking about the 425 Eastern Time kick between the Ravens and the Eagles that’s Joe’s uh contact info go follow him over on X NFL ref stats one and make sure that you check his articles where he writes up not just a couple of games but all of the referees that call games in the NFL and some of their Trends and tendencies over at sharp footall analysis.com so make sure that you head over to Sharp footall analysis.com and check that out okay um we have a couple of props to get to uh and I’ll get to a couple of questions real quick and then we’ll hit these we’ll hit these player props uh we went three and 0 last week on these longest props we went two and 0 the week before I think we’re five maybe I think we’re five and one something along those lines the last six that we’ve had the last three weeks um because one week I think we only did one uh at any rate um I want to say we’re 15 and eight on the season with these from me so we got two more to give to you guys and uh let’s see the Joseph Estrada says hope everyone jumped in on the Black Friday deal the props yesterday smashed it is this is the time uh of year that I normally have a lot more success um as we Trend if you guys have been with me for several years now you know later on the season lots of data to choose from lots of injuries that we can then play off of and pay attention to so the closer you’re paying attention to the injuries the coaches the trending data uh and the and the the longer sample size of data like the more accurate some of my predictions tend to be from a props perspective from a betting perspective as well uh I know there are some groups out there that like to get in early and then they slow their volume down late um I’m sort of the opposite I mean as you can see from our volume this year we’ve been high all year long though uh it’s just been a great season seeing things pretty clearly so we’ll hope that that continues but obviously off to a great start uh this week um okay what we are going to do here from a props perspective I’m not sure if I missed any uh comments that we needed to hit here um I appreciate all you guys following along make sure that you are over on YouTube as well and you subscribe to our Channel on YouTube like and thumbs up this episode uh because we’ll be back with you on Tuesday uh we’ll be back with you on next Friday we’re here every single Tuesday and Friday noon Eastern sharing some of our favorite uh betting angles discussing coaches and how they botch certain things and uh and and what coaches did well I like talking about what coaches did poorly because I think that’s more instructive uh for the future but I love complimenting guys that I feel like are doing good jobs or plays that were good or things of that nature um so we get into a little bit of that as well on the Tuesday show all right with that said um let us I guess we got to wait a second here I just sent an advanced notice to subscribers so if you if you’re familiar with what we do here uh as a subscriber we send out a notification generally speaking except on game days where it’s a l little bit more difficult to to do that but we send a heads up letting people know that hey you’re going to get something shortly we try to give you guys a little bit of advanced notice so that you’re ready so that has just gone out of the system but because of the number of subscribers and whatnot it takes a little while to cycle through the system so I got to wait a second before I can actually send out the uh official recommendations and we send that to everybody had these selected prior to the show uh and I’m going to fire them off here to subscribers and so we’re going to get into uh these right now where I want you to go if you’re looking to um tail us on some of these uh go to the um receiving props and some of you guys have been saying that uh thank you Ray you got the easy Gibbs cash easy Gibbs cash he hit that number twice um kind of wish we didn’t do content uh to keep these types of things to ourselves but uh we got to we got to do the show to get some picks out there and get people on board so we’re giving out some of our favorite things on this show but absolutely uh he hit that one two different times um the way that you could kind of give back even if you’re not a subscriber you don’t want to pay anything for any pix that ever uh is at least subscribe to the uh to the YouTube channel that’s free give us a thumbs up that’s free um but if you want to get 73% off and get this stuff this week uh that is a very big discount used to code sharp 73 over on sharp. foot to access it okay go to the New Orleans Saints game um go go to the receiving props let me pull it up here on my end go to the receiving props go to longest reception and go to just got to wait a second have to make sure that this gets okay I always I always want to make sure that the the subs are getting this at exactly the same time or a little bit earlier so they just got it uh go to the longest reception for tesm Hill and we’re going to go over 13 and a half which is where it is everywhere the best line on this one is at Pinnacle at minus 103 you can also get it at DK at minus 110 you can get it at MGM at minus 110 you can get it at Caesars at minus 109 you can get it at hard rock at minus 110 you can get it at bet 365 at minus 110 um you guys can share uh there you go there’s Jimmy in the chat excellent job Jimmy thank you so much uh great job Exile says great job there um so we’re looking at the tesm hill longest reception over 13 and a half um a couple things on Tamm Hill here give me one second to pull it up oh it’s in this file if you guys got tesm Hill at 13 and a half longest elsewhere feel free to drop it in the chat and let me know what you are getting there while you’re doing this I want to just get out there let’s we’ll talk about these in a second go to longest reception for buck Irving longest reception for Bucky Irving go to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game go to receiving props go to Bucky Irving we’re going over 10 and a half longest reception for Bucky Irving you can get that pretty much everywhere as well uh I see Pinnacle has it at minus 112 uh MGM as it at minus 120 Hard Rock minus 120 uh 10 and a half at ESPN bet – 120 um minus 115 at bet 365 so that’s another prop that’s the second prop that we’re going to do is taes sorry is Bucky Irving longest reception over 10 and a half at all these spots it looks like ESPN just pulled it down Pinnacle just pulled it down it looks like some of these spots are pulling it down I still see it at MG M I still see it at bet 365 DK has it down somebody check FanDuel I don’t know what they have there it’s back up at ESPN and Hard Rock at 11 and a half now still at 10 and a half at bet 36 65 ta is up to 15 a half at DK uh let me see here okay let’s talk a little bit about Tamm Hill real quick oh one book state that is that is rough Brett that is rough um let’s first talk about tesm here and why I like some of his receiving yards he had this ridiculous rushing day yesterday that’s obviously not going to be replicated um in terms of his not yesterday but this last his last game which is not going to be replicated but I think some of the coaching points from both his head coach the inter head coach uh Darren Rizzy as well as Clint kubak uh are instructive here in addition to just his his usage that he’s had so they were on a byy week 12 uh the saints were week nine he has 41 yards on four catches week 10 he has 36 yards on two catches but that week he had an 88 yard if you remember an 88 yard touchdown run down the sideline that was nullified by a penalty I want to say it was one of those damn ineligible man downfield penalties but I’m not positive um so he had 88 yard touchdown on that game that was nullified and then last week he had I want to say 10 targets eight catches for 50 yards now he has had a longest reception what do we what did we give out here uh what was the I got too many tabs open here this is brutal too many uh okay 13 and A2 he has hit the over and 13 and A2 in four straight games his longest reception over 13 half in four straight games against the Chargers Panthers Falcons and the Browns last week so he’s gone over this number four straight weeks and you listen to what the coaches are saying his offensive coordinator Clint kubak said when he’s been healthy we definitely want him use to use him to the max when you get into the game uh I thought in that last game it was tm’s day you want to ride the hot hand and keep giving him the ball uh on it whether there’s any reservation of using Hill too much in light of his injuries no absolutely not we’re ready for TM to play every play of the game I went back last night and watched the film of all of taes Hills targets over the last four games that he’s played um since week eight because he missed some time he played weeks one two four missed some time came back week eight played week eight nine uh he’s not running a ridiculous number of routes but the way that he is being used there they’re not lining him up in the back field they’re lining him up at tight end but doing so many different things a lot of screens with him a lot of design plays with him Clint kubak is very creative and so I would believe if there’s a place that we’re going to see his ceiling because you’re not going to get that yardage that you got from him in that last game but the way where I think his his his uh ceiling is going to be cut a little bit would be on the rushing stuff I don’t think we’re going to see as much explosiveness in consistency out of that run game uh and the attempts he’s competing for more guys on the rushing side of things but on the receiving side of things I think there’s plenty of opportunities keep in mind they won both of their last two games um and they won them by uh three points and like 14 point 17 points whatever that final score is 21 points against the Cleveland Browns um and they’re talking about his usage and I think Darren R’s quote was really interesting the interim head coach they said we looked at the tape and collectively felt that we got to get this guy the ball and get him more involved and they went back they said and they looked at the games that the Saints won and when the saints were winning games it was because tesm hill was a little bit more involved in the offense or contributing big plays in the offense and so they wanted to get him more involved from the beginning in a lot of their games because they think that that’s a driver to their success they said I think our usage with him these last couple weeks is really what we’re kind of trying to Trend towards a little bit of everything not too much of any one particular thing he’s a huge part of what we do so they’re going to get him involved a fair amount I don’t think we’re going to see that ceiling on the ground game potentially but I do think they just don’t have the that many receivers in the passing game and I so I think we’re going to see targets to Tamm Hill and if you look at um if you look at the uh the Rams and how they perform against tight end targets is not great they allow the one two three four five six seventh most yards per attempt and also rank like bottom six or seven in uh EPA per snap to tight end Target so I just I just am liking um Tamm Hill and when you go with his longest you don’t need to worry about his total now I like his total over as well don’t get me wrong but I think when you focus on the longest he’s likely get there let’s talk a little bit about Bucky Irving now um momentarily and uh what do I got here I’m Bucky Irving um where do I got the Bucky Irving notes okay here we go I think here we go okay so you’ve got Bucky Irving who finally for the first time all season took more snaps than Rashad White NOW Bucky has gotten more touches than Rashad white for several weeks now but this past week was the first time that he actually had more snaps as well I’m trying to find I’ve got some written analysis here about okay weeks 1 to 7 total running back touches White had 86 Irving had 82 so weeks 1 to7 white was a little bit ahead but it was close since week eight Irving has had 60 white has only had 48 um so Irving has not only stepped in front but is dominating a little bit uh and then we also see that um we saw a couple of one Shan Tucker fumble and we know that last week they tried to get sha Tucker involved on that first drive of the game uh they basically came out and said said that they were going to try to do that because they liked sha Tucker a little bit and they wanted to they weren’t sure how to get him going because once Bucky gets the handoffs then he just starts to get going so you don’t really want to take him out to put a guy like Shan Tucker into the game so like how can we manufacture a few touches to Sean Tucker well it’ll be at the beginning of the game let’s get him in there at the early stage of the game so they stuck him in there and then he fumbled at the goal line uh I want to say on his like second or third carry I think that they’re going to slow down the Tucker stuff a little bit depending upon game State here um and and ride Bucky who got more snaps last week and who had more um production last week and obviously is a is a dangerous threat and when you look at um Bucky Irving we took over 10 and a half for his longest reception he has hit this in five of the last six games has Bucky Irving gone over a longest reception of 10 a half yards and if you look at the um the way that the Carolina Panthers defend running back receptions they rank well below average in yards per reception allowed to running backs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yeah they are going to slow down like they’ve got Mike Evans back so it sort of stretches out the defense gives them more to think about um but but I really think here if the Carolina Panthers are a little bit more um competitive that’s just going to keep some of these targets to Bucky flowing right they they could the T of a Buccaneers were up big against the New York Giants last week where was the final score like 30 to7 they could run the ball late they didn’t have to do a whole lot there um but I do think that if the game is a little bit more competitive more throughout the game that we’re going to see a couple more Bucky Irving targets that being said he still was targeted six times last week uh which was I mean he was targeted seven times four weeks ago uh other weeks it’s been like three times they do like to get Rashard white I do agree Rashard white is the better guy to get involved from a receiving perspective rather than a running perspective so all these backs I mean you’re you’re not getting like the full out usage so there’s a lot of variance potential here and there’s a lot of risk here as well when you have such variants it’s not like we’re going after a guy who um you know is going to get seven to 10 Targets on a regular basis in games um you don’t really know how things could go for buck Irving here but I like betting on Bucky Irving and uh looks like somebody was dropping off on audio but the rest of you guys have the audio that game I’m really fascinated with Dave Canales now the coach of the Carolina Panthers going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the coach that he formerly was calling plays for last season how does that impact this game here the most he knows about Baker Mayfield he knows about some of the strengths and weaknesses of their offensive line from a blocking perspective could he be coaching up his own defense to try to take advantage of that yes he also knows about Todd BS and his Tendencies he also knows about Todd B’s defense and what they do and the Personnel on that side of the ball because he G he’s gone up against them every single week in practice for a full season so could he have some edges on that side of the ball yes so you’ve got this interesting Dynamic of Dave Canalis going up against his former team I just want to we’re going to see this match up twice because they’re in the same division it’s rare that you know a coach a guy who called plays is going to coach a team in the same division but that’s what happened here and I’m interested to see the result of that uh and which side of the ball that helps a little bit um with that said uh man I think we’re good um we’ve had a a great show here on Friday after Thanksgiving I hope that you guys are looking forward to additional football I know some of you guys have been um probably watching Colorado’s game here where they are uh still up over Oklahoma State they were up at 21 to nothing Midway through the first quarter uh and no points have been scored since then uh it’s still 21 nothing Colorado is up with just about two minutes to go in the first half we’ve got the Raiders taking on the Chiefs in about an hour and a half so I hope you guys are excited about that game as well that game we’re seeing the Kansas City Chiefs down to I want to say their third string kicker uh because they obviously their their their sty their starter Harrison bucker uh he’s out for multiple weeks with his procedure uh I think he had to get done and their second string guy was Spencer shrer he’s now out with a I want to say a hamstring that he must have strained last week so now they’re down to their third string kicker and for a team that’s had to rely a lot on kickers um you know that’s that becomes a little bit more nervous each and every time that you’re moving down espec from Harrison bucker to somebody else and then now the guy who’s worse than that guy um so it’ll be interesting to see if they get a little bit more aggressive for the Kansas City Chiefs when they get closer to the end zone um that sort of thing but uh all that said thank you guys for the support on the show I appreciate you Exile uh giving giving your love and your time to us uh we we Tred to do the same obviously preparing a great show for you guys uh between Pam and Ryan and Joe and myself trying to give you some of our best looks and help you guys win some money this upcoming weekend thank you Nick as well uh continued holiday fun and festivities for all you guys I hope that you enjoy your Friday your Black Friday get some great deals uh out there save I’m I’m personally in the market for um a good snowblower like a electric snowblower so if anybody’s got uh uh totally off-the-wall you know but if anybody has good recommendations for electric snowblowers happy to happy to uh shoot in my way over on X sharp football let me know which one you’ve used and and what you like about it but uh I’m I’m looking for a a nice two-stage uh electric snowblower battery powered snowblower uh battery powered not electric but battery powered um not gas battery uh to get today so I’m going to be in the market for that uh if you guys are interested in checking out our Black Friday Deal use the code sharp 73 get you 73% off we you’re not going to be able to get this price for cheaper than that the rest of the season Black Friday deal we didn’t do it this much last year we didn’t do a discount this High last year we’ve got it this year because our records are better this year than they were last year we want to pass that savings along to you get you guys involved so uh everybody have a great day enjoy the Black Friday savings and we’ll see you guys on Tuesday at noon Eastern good luck this weekend

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