๐ Published on: 2024-11-25 20:45:28
โฑ Duration: 00:09:04 (544 seconds)
๐ Views: 1235 | ๐ Likes: 27
๐ Video Description:
Will and JJ breaks down everything you need to know about Best Bets on Monday Night Football Week 12 of 2024 Season
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0:00 Introduction
0:56 LAC Offense Analysis
4:12 PHI Offense Analysis
7:09 Parlay of the Night
Music Credit on Intro: HoneyJam Records
๐ Channel: Masterclass Analytics
๐ Channel Country:
๐ Tags:
lamar jackson,justin herbert,baltimore,ravens,los angeles,chargers,football,nfl,mnf,monday,night,sports
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Transcript:
what is up everybody it’s doc I’m with my man JJ we got Monday Night Football we got the Chargers and the Ravens and I think these are two teams probably the best two teams that I think have at upsetting the Chiefs in the playoffs this year so I’m excited to watch this one kind of get a taste of two potential competitors so we’re going to break everything down and get to a parlay at the end like we always do make sure you watch all the way [Music] through welcome in everybody if you haven’t already like subscribe we appreciate any love that you guys can show for us but other than that let’s get into the game JJ how how are you feeling about this one I’m feeling pretty good I feel a lot better than uh last night but you know I think it’s I feel like there’s some obvious spots to pick here even hit or miss I think like the spots are pretty obvious and you know we’ll break it down a little bit on 100% so we can just kick things off let’s start with the charger side because I feel like the Ravens defense is pretty straightforward and it has been all season so we can just start things off by saying the Ravens run defense is Elite their pass defense is not and they kind of funnel to two areas the wide receiver one and the tight end which in this case is going to be lad makoni and will dley so uh not anything crazy sharp just it’s kind of how the Ravens defense is I think they’re going to continue to get better as the season goes along they have a new defensive coordinator who’s calling plays for the first time this season they’ve had some injuries here and there but yeah yeah that’s just kind of how has been all season great run defense bad pass defense and you’ve been able to Target unders on running backs against them and overs on wide receiver ons and tight ends against him all year other than that JJ how are you seeing this you know yeah like you said run defense good pass defense bad so it’s probably a good spot for Justin Herbert to thrive you know no Hayden H is going to be good for uh will dley here every time he’s been out he’s been seing I think like 70 plus percent of the snaps so he’s been one of his favorite targets I think they’ll Target him a lot here I think Baltimore has like bottom three dboa against tight ends I’m pretty sure they’re dead last but you definitely bottom three outside of that you know those uh those two I don’t really see anyone else I really want to Target that has like like an actual edge here no I I 100% agree and I mean will Dy didn’t start the season as the starter it didn’t take it wasn’t Hayden Hurst injury kind of thrust him into the big route participation role but ever since then I mean Coach Harbaugh has said it him and Herbert have a connection that I think a lot of people didn’t expect and this is just another match where that can come to light as far as taking the unders on running backs like we said it’s going to be tough on this one because we have Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins both of their lines are really low I think the books are starting to catch up we don’t we don’t we know that J Doin is going to get most of the work we don’t know entirely how much ever I mean it’s kind of uh you’re kind of guessing every time and with the narrative uh involved I kind of I don’t I want to be very clear we are not fading JK dobins and Gus Edwards their lines are low enough where I don’t want to take the unders but this is absolutely a bad match up for them so in other circumstances in other weeks with other running backs maybe we take the unders in this one the lines are low enough I think the books have it set where it should be I’m staying away uh JJ I’m not sure if do you agree with me there yeah when we break these games down we talk about it schematically not like oh yeah this is exactly who you should fade under who you should take over it’s just how we see the game going yeah so with those with the lines how they’re set it’s just something to avoid there’s no Edge we try to look for an edge and like how teams want to attack each other 100% and just for the record Baltimore is allowing the third most yards to tight ends this season so I take yards over receptions because they’re kind of middle of the pack in receptions are a little worse than average but against for yards they’re really bad but I think that’s the Baltimore defense side La offense pretty straightforward we can get to the other side of the ball with the Baltimore offense and the Chargers defense JJ I know you had an interesting tidbit that you found before we started recording so I’ll let you get to that one yeah we’re just gonna jump straight into the Run game you know Chargers run defense has been solid the entire season and they do it out of a light box I think almost 70% of the time which is uh which has been second in the league according to NFL pro and I mean when you get a light box and you get Derrik Henry who’s averaging like six yards a pop against a light box it’s gonna be difficult to stop you know there’s you want to attack the I think it’s the sidelines against the Chargers passing wise but you know I think they’re going to try and spread him out here especially when they get 12 Personnel again a light box like there should be a lot of good uh rushing Lanes here for Derk Henry tonight 100% I just looked it up they have the second lowest stacked box rate in the NFL against the run so while they’re normally good against the run I think not stacking the Box combined with too high and how good this Baltimore offensive line is Derrick Henry is going to continue to be Derrick Henry and I think everybody saw what saquan did last night Derrik Henry knows that it’s been him and saquin as the top two running backs all year sequan just ran away with last night Derrick Henry has any sort of ego in him he’ll probably be itching for to have a big game himself so we’ll see what happens but uh as far as the passing game I mean z flowers’ lines are low Rashad Batman’s been dealing with something throughout the week so I’m not sure he’s entirely healthy Isaiah likeley is back in the mix after missing a week uh Deontay Johnson has been that’s been a whole thing the past two weeks trying to figure out why the Baltimore even traded for him because it’s been reported that they kind of just got him because he was cheap just in case z flowers gets injured they didn’t really have a plan to use him otherwise so there’s there’s just a lot going on in the passing game that I don’t really want to touch I don’t know if you’re seeing that any differently yeah I haven’t really seen much of a edge as far as like the numbers wise in the passing game is just something I really don’t want to touch yeah but I mean if I had to guess probably Z flowers he’s either going to give you like 20 yards or 100 yards there’s there’s just been no in between for him so I mean we’ll see how that goes and how much they actually start to get Deontay Johnson more involved so just factors I just don’t want to play with I think it is what it is with Deontay I think those have a couple plays where like they design it to go for him just because he’s good but like they’re not a team that runs that many three wide receiver sets uh baitman him and baitman have some overlap and the rest they do runs so as long as Batman’s on the field deont is kind of running a route that isn’t accustomed to his normal role he’s not going to be stepping on Z flowers shoes they’re going to let Z flowers do whatever he wants so it’s it’s a mess but we can get into the game or the parlay now so do it to sum everything up and our favorite spots we made a parlay and we’ve been going for a little longer shots lately we like we’ve liked the reads some of them been uh bad after the fact obviously some of them have been good just we haven’t had our luck to uh tuck in the parlay we decided we want to see one go through the hoop today and I mean Ravens and Chargers could just become an ugly gritty game so we don’t want to go for any big long shot so we did we went plus 199 and the first leg we went with is will dley 25 plus yards tight ends chew against the Ravens there’s no Hayden Hurst and him and Herbert have been absolutely cooking together 25 yards just it feels like it’s nothing for him at this point so 25 yards is the first leg for will dley the second leg is the Baltimore Ravens minus 2 and a half against the spread I think it’s safe to say that they are the better team I think they’re one of the few teams outside the Chiefs and the lions that people could actually see winning the Super Bowl and Chargers could be a sleeper pick for some people including myself but I think there is tears of this and two and a half spread is too low for this Baltimore team uh and the last leg is darck Henry 70 plus rushing yards like JJ said the Chargers have one of the lowest stack box rates in the league if you’re not stacking the Box against Derk Henry he will punish you 70 yards is light for him as well especially under those circumstances so those three together we’re looking at plus 199 put a full unit on it other than that I mean good luck tonight if you guys are tailing JJ appreciate you as always and if you haven’t already make sure you like subscribe because this is going to hit we’re going to be celebrating on the Thursday video and you’re going to be pissed if you see that Thursday video and you’re like ah damn I didn’t tail so win with us we’re to we we want to win with with you guys we don’t want to win alone so tail this lock it in we’ll see you guys on the next show
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