📅 Published on: 2024-12-02 20:37:37
⏱ Duration: 00:12:11 (731 seconds)
👀 Views: 1598 | 👍 Likes: 20
📝 Video Description:
Will and JJ breaks down everything you need to know about Best Bets on Monday Night Football Week 13 of 2024 Season
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0:00 Introduction
1:06 DEN Offense Analysis
4:26 CLE Offense Analysis
9:40 Parlay of the Night
Music Credit on Intro: HoneyJam Records
🎙 Channel: Masterclass Analytics
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📂 Tags:
DENVER BRONCOS,DENVER,BRONCOS,CLEVELAND BROWNS,CLEVELAND,BROWNS,MONDAY,MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL,FOOTBALL,NFL,PRIMETIME,PARLAY,SPORTSBETTING,SPORTS,BETTING,GAMBLING,FANDUEL,DRAFTKINGS
🕵️♂️ Transcript:
welcome in everybody we got Monday Night Football I hope everybody’s had a great holidays obviously we took a break from the videos for the Friday and Sunday games but we’re back ready to make you a bunch of money and we have the Broncos and the Browns today kind of a weird game for people to be excited about but got to be a little bit excited about it we got football so we’re going to break everything down give you guys a parlay at the end like we always do and we’re going to get this thing [Music] rolling welcome everybody JJ how are we doing man long time no see I don’t know you know it get a little refresh over the weekend you know little bit of burnout but now we back I think I think today’s gonna be good oh yeah I think I think it’s kind of straightforward of a game like jamus Winston’s made everybody excited for the passing game on the Broncos side now Nick chub is back in the mix so there’s actually things to bet on for the Cleveland offense which we couldn’t say the first six seven weeks of the season and on the Denver side bck has surprised a lot of people this season and the Browns defense has been one that people have been surprisingly able to Target so yeah I say we can just uh get right into it and we can start with the Denver offense and before we get into the P game let’s get into the Run game because now they’re there’s three backs that they use Javonte Williams jul mcclaflin and is estimate esteem I don’t know how you’re actually supposed to pronounce it but he’s now in and it’s it’s purely a hotand approach I think it was was two weeks ago uh the rookie got 12 14 carries or something everybody thought he was taking over everybody got excited and then the next week it was javante Williams and the rookie got absolutely no work and the coaches have come out and said as much they said oh yeah he played great we’ll see what happens next week like there they did not commit to anybody it is purely a hotand approach so I’m staying away and but the one information that I do have is the Browns defense against the Run game has been solid in terms of like playto playay their success rate against the Run has been really good the issue is on the plays where they do give up more than five yards it’s not just six or seven it’s 1520 their explosive Rush rate allowed is pretty high so those stuff they’re just giving up home runs essentially exactly they’ll stuff you but they’ll also if they don’t stuff you you’re you’re probably going into the secondary so that’s the only noteworthy thing from the defense that I have uh JJ you can go ahead and take over the offensive side of the ball or the passing side sorry yeah for the passing side so I mean to keep it simple with the defenses year because they both do pretty much very similar things uh both top 10 and man coverage rate and single high along with top 11 and Blitz rate so with that looking at the Broncos offense that’s going to be all Su in here you know 2.7 yards plus per route run versus uh single high and man coverage along with a 30 plus perc first reach here versus man and single high so he’s going to be the go-to guy here it’s that simple there’s no one else’s anywhere near his numbers in that offense and I think now that we’re actually seeing them convert on some of those pass plays with him like we’re seeing his numbers like really pop the last couple weeks and I think it’s probably getting a good chance for that continue to tonight oh yeah 70 plus receiving yards in those last five games 90 plus and three of those five games and matchup doesn’t get better for Cleveland allows the third most yards to wide receiver ons in the NFL there are some teams where you don’t know who’s actually the wide receiver one like with the Bengals you know it’s Chase but Chase gets bracketed so T Higgins actually gets a higher Target share a lot of games with this one we know exactly who it is it’s courland Sutton and it makes our life a lot easier here so col sun has been great he has a great matchup no reason for that not to continue today and uh the only other piece I have to add on to that is bonix actually has the most pass attempts of at least 20 air yards in the NFL this season and the Browns allowed the most pass uh yards on attempts of 20 plus air yards in the NFL so we could see them just absolutely aired out for the Denver Broncos uh offense today and that’s got cor and sudden ridden all over it so that’s all I have on that side unless I’m forgetting uh some of the other guys JJ no that’s pretty much it all right well then we can get into the other side of the ball the one that I think people have had a lot more fun prop betting since jamus Winston took over and that’s the Cleveland Browns and Nick chub’s in the mix don’t bet on Nick chub today this is a horrible match up for him but at the same time he’s just it just feels like he’s so due on efficiency like we we know who Nick chub is and I know he’s coming back from injury probably still not 100% uh healthy but I don’t want to be betting against Nick chub and at the same time this matchup is horrible he runs mainly in the zone concept and then Broncos have been the best Zone concept team or best Rush defense against the Zone Concept in the NFL I’m just I’m not touching him and drum for really hasn’t been getting much rushing work yeah and don’t expect the jamus to check it down either he’s bottom three on most websites in terms of checkdown rate so about 6.5 to like 3.5% which is very low it’s horrible and it it’s what makes it super frustrating is under normal circumstances drone Ford is still getting a very high route share like Nick chub is taking all the rush attempt share and drone Ford is taking all the route share and usually that means when you have a guy at like 12 and a half for CB yards against a defense like the Denver Broncos you can say oh drone Ford receiving yards easiest bet of the day when you have a guy like jamus Winston like JJ’s talking about who just refuses to check it down it doesn’t it’s not that simple and I can speak firsthand of this because I took Jerome Ford for this reason last week I can’t remember who the matchup was but it was another good matchup his routes were up he was on the field we got all the defensive looks he wanted drum or not drum for jamus Winston didn’t even think to look his way and watching it happen every play was the most frustrating thing I could have experienced so I’m not wishing that upon anybody today it’s a good matchup he’s getting the opportunity he want it’s just a matter of do you trust jamus Winston I personally don’t uh but it that that’s up to you guys on whether you want to take that risk or not as far as rest of the passing game sedric Tillman has popped up on the scene he’s been great Jerry Judy has been doing his thing and Elijah Moore has been mixing in there as well kind of a lot of redemption stories in that uh receiving game J do any of them really stand out to you yes so I’d say for both uh coverages uh single high and man coverage it’s goingon to be Jerry Judy as he has a over 30% first read share versus uh single high along with 3.9 yards rout yards per route run and then against uh man it’s going to be 1.93 yards per R run and 22% first re share versus Man the guy that stands out versus man is gonna be Cedric Tilman right now that is let me see I just had it open uh he has 28% Target per out run 3.42 yards per out run and a 25% first read share so those are the only two guys I would want to Target in the passing game here outside of that um I know in joku who’s been solid but I just think like it fits the match up for the outside receivers more here yeah and I think do sendrick Tilman so it sounds like Cedric Tilman and Jerry Judy are the main guys to go to and Cedric tilman’s air yard chair has been at least his unrealized air yards lately have been absolutely ridiculous so J Judy’s probably the more reliable option in terms of all right if he’s getting his targets you know you’re probably like if the Read’s right you’re more likely to hit but then Cedric Tilman on the other side is you’re more likely to hit with the bad read so how how much do you trust to read is really what it comes down to uh it’s kind of a game that if it were me I think I’d rather take Tilman because ceran probably goes on Judy no or do you think he goes on Tilman um it’s a good question I think I know they’re more likely to move uh Jerry Judy around more so I think maybe they might just throw him on Judy just so he doesn’t get any advantages there um I think he is the more experienced vet I think that’s probably the guy I would really want to take away if it was me on defense and then just kind of let Tilman do what he does just because like you said there’s a lot of unrealized air yards so you just kind of do what you do against him and then hopefully they don’t connect yeah dude I just realized this is a j Judy Revenge game oh yeah in Denver because I’m sitting here thinking I’m like okay it’s going to be cold in Denver it’s going to be 36 34 degrees so maybe somebody struggles against the cold but then I’m like Jerry Judy played in Denver like he was in this cold so he’s he’s gonna get some extra targets for we got we got jamus jamus is a man of the people he’s gonna get Judy his looks I think I’d go Judy then if it was yeah all right so Jerry Judy is who if I was choosing out of that receiving game who I would go with um we talked about the Run game we talked about the pass game for both teams anything else worth noting before we uh feed the people I think that’s about it all right parlay time and for those who follow me on Twitter you saw me hit a parlay yesterday where we picked a winner of the game a touchdown score in that game and a player prop in that game it was the Steelers Bengals game and I love the idea it it’s smacked by the way and we would have smacked Sunday Night Football to if mcaffry didn’t get hurt so I’m keeping up that theme we’re going to ride that uh theme until the wheels fall off and we’re doing that for this and the winner of the game we’re taking is the Cleveland Browns there’s a interesting system that I found out where basically teams that are way underdogs after week six on Monday Night Football since 2022 have just been crazy so and that’s both against a spread and straight up and I because of that I love the value on the Browns the cold weather as back doesn’t really come into play as far as an advantage for Denver because again it’s the Cleveland Browns that’s their Stadium or their City too um so I think Cleveland Browns could come in and sneak one especially rookie quarterback in prime time I always love to fade those love B Knicks but still the rookie quarterback in Prim Time the next leg is the touchdown prop and we’re going Nick chub to get a rushing touchdown his goal line opportunity both within the five within the 10 within the 20 all been really really nice and I don’t think it justifies a plus 160 line the main concern is really just going to be how frequent are the Cleveland Browns going to be in scoring positions but I mean this this is football even the best defenses give up touchdowns in games we just need one from Nick chub and I think we can get that and the last like we’re going to go with is cland Su over receiving yards like we said he’s been in Nails lately it’s a good matchup and the Browns can just get killed deep and in the air and that’s exactly where him and bonick love to connect so those three lock it in it’s plus 900 on DraftKings which is where you can get the best odds I had a boost somewhere else uh that I used that I don’t know if I got it from like a no sweat b type of promo or something else so I didn’t want to advertise that on here we’re going to track it as one unit AS Plus 900 you can get that on draft so go take that make sure you like subscribe if you’re taing we always appreciate the love and support I hope everybody had a Happy Thanksgiving and now it’s time for us to pray for the Christmas gifts coming up in the next few weeks so good luck to everybody JJ appreciate you as always drop us a follow on Twitter and we’ll see you guys on the next show
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