📅 Published on: 2024-11-27 23:30:05

⏱ Duration: 00:34:43 (2083 seconds)

👀 Views: 5417 | 👍 Likes: 124

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Blake Snell’s move to the Los Angeles Dodgers is shaking up Major League Baseball. Could this be a game-changer for the San Francisco Giants? With a hefty five-year, $182 million contract, Snell’s signing is a hot topic, sparking debates about its impact on the Giants and the league’s competitive balance.

Host Ben Kaspick breaks down the financial intricacies of Snell’s deal, comparing it to projections from ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors. He explores the Dodgers’ spending and its implications for baseball’s future. The episode also dives into the SF Giants’ potential free agency moves, with names like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, and Ha-Seong Kim potentially in the mix.

Don’t miss this insightful analysis of how Snell’s signing could reshape the Giants’ strategy and the MLB landscape. Tune in for expert commentary and a deep dive into the Giants’ next steps.

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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that’s data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.

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🕵️‍♂️ Transcript:

Blake Snell has signed with the Dodgers oh my gosh you are locked on Giants your daily San Francisco Giants podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello and welcome to locked on Giants part of the locked on podcast Network where it’s your team every day my name is Ben casic and on the show we provide episodes 3 days a week for now uh talking about the San Francisco Giants in a way that’s datadriven and rational but also simple passionate and accessible to all I’m a former contributor for the baseball statistics and Analysis websites beyond the box score and rotographs I’ve been podcasting about the Giants since way back in 2015 been hosting this show since before the 2019 season and I’m a lifelong Giants fan thank you for making lockedown Giants your first listen every day we’re free and available wherever you get your podcast including YouTube check us out there if you have not already and please hit that subscribe button wherever it is that you’re following the show you can start the season with a big return on FanDuel new customers can place a $5 bet and you’ll get started with $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins visit fanduel.com to get started and where we get started yeah I wanted to just kind of make a little tease there Blake Snell has signed oh maybe it was with the Giants no it’s with the Dodgers and so this is kicking off uh in in the Baseball World in general a big discussion here as the rich very much the the very rich get richer here uh the Dodgers perennially like the best team in baseball the the defending World Series champions got Otani like they got the best free agents last off seon Otani Yamamoto um Otani a generational Talent crazy contract 700 million 680 deferred um there’s all these discussions there and then they go out and they get Blake Snell on top of it all on top of it all and then as a Giants fan you are probably even more it’s more of a sensitive subject because this guy was just playing for your team last year and so where does he go he goes to the Dodgers it’s kind of a worst case scenario in that um from that point of view but let’s talk about the contract that Snell gets it is definitely a uh Hefty deal and a good deal for Snell it’s 5 years 182 million so when I saw that number it kind of shocked me it was much higher than I would have thought thought so before you start thinking yeah but there are deferrals yeah but there are deferrals so the actual present day value of the contract is more like 160 million from what I understand it’s in the neighborhood of 160 million which still comes out you know 160 divided by 5 is 32 million per year so I do want to look quickly at the ESPN and MLB trade rumors uh projections for what Snell was going to get this is definitely one of the top free agents it is kind of crazy that he couldn’t get a significant contract last winter like if you’re the Giants you you kind of look at this and go well we should have given him whatever it was he was looking for last off season which was probably less than this and this he’s a year older so ultimately he comes out with a six-year deal in essence because of the one year with the Giants and it’s 182 But True Value is like uh 60 and then you add I think it was 30 million uh from the Giants per year on that short-term deal I think I’m already kind of forgetting trying to put block it out of my memory um 32 million but there were deferrals which lowered it was about 30 million so he he ends up with uh a True Value here of a roughly a 6-year $190 million contract so it’s like if you could have got him for I don’t know 6150 or something five one 45 I don’t know what he was looking for last winter but this is that’s the thing about signing these players and same with Matt Chapman they ended up giving him the onee last year and then a six-year extension on top of that so you ended up giving him a seven-year deal in essence when you were kind of risk averse that’s why you gave these shorter term deals with the opt outs and then you end up in a situation where if you want to bring them back you’re going to end up paying more and so maybe just take the risk and have what turns out to be a better looking contract than what it ends up being like Chapman ultimately from the Giants gets seven years and like 170 something million dollar which is more I’m sure than what he was looking for in the first place so anyway the projections for Snell uh ESPN had four years 124 million which basically nails that $32 million aav but it’s an extra year uh that Snell actually gets and I said ESN right um so that’s what ESPN project projected and um MLB trade rumors projected 5 years 160 they just nail it that that’s two for two they nailed um what’s his face the guy who signed with the Astros or with the angels sorry coming from the Astros um usay Kikuchi they like nailed that contract as well m m trade rers does a really good job um predicting these salaries contracts uh fan graphs for what it’s worth we will lastly look at there the reason I do this by the way look at who was best is cuz I generally like to get a sense of which of these sources is best at predicting contracts because then we kind of can use that one more to look at players who are still available and see uh what are they kind of most likely to get in what neighborhood so fan graphs Ben Clemens does these like on his own I guess and he predicted three year is 105 million so uh I think fan graphs is consistently the worst ESPN and MLB trade rumors are better at this and so far this year MLB trade rumors is nailing it um so anyway right there’s deferral so the number’s going to jump off the page um with 182 million over five years but it’s 160 when you factor in the deferrals and so we will get into like what does this mean is it bad for baseball all of that um I do just want to point out that according to Zip’s projections um it’s a system made by Dan zorski he says that uh the projection for five years at you know his projected production over those five years would be 144 million so it’s you know a bit of an overpay you might say perhaps you you know accounting for California taxes I don’t I don’t know there’s also a huge signing bonus which I don’t even understand honestly I feel like I need to go to school and get an economics degree to start understanding some of these baseball contracts um I understand them decently well but they’re still complicated to me because there’s this huge signing bonus it’s like 62 million or something um and that gets spread out evenly over I know that that gets spread out evenly over the five years but that money doesn’t count against the competitive balance tax and so my question is why not just make the whole contract a signing bonus and then it doesn’t count at all against the CBT OB there must there must be a rule but why not Max why doesn’t every team maximize that number to the fullest extent possible I don’t understand uh and I again I need to I I should understand but I don’t know where to even look so if you know the answer point me in the right direction but anyway yeah I mean looking at the projections for Snell they’ve got him pitching no fewer than 132 innings in a season uh in any of these five years which I would I would put money on there’s going to be a season or more where he doesn’t pitch at least 132 Innings and so yeah we got the Blake Snell experience um but he goes to a great team that’s going to limmit his workload they basically the Dodgers know they’re going to make the playoffs every year and so they can quote unquote afford to be careful with him and just have him ready to pitch in October that’s kind of the the thing you know it’s like you have to realize they don’t need 200 Innings out of Blake snow if they can just get him 120 and cruise into the playoffs and just have him ready to go in the playoffs that’s the idea and so is it bad for baseball with a team like the Dodgers getting one of the top players available and there’s still very much a possibility for so much more Talent that’s out there including Juan stto uh we’ll get into that whole conversation of what this all means from the Giants point of view who’s left like pretty much everyone but where do they go from here if Blake Snell was a possibility for them so we’ll get into it in just a minute and before we do today’s episode of lock on Giants is brought to you in part by FanDuel get ready to tackle the NFL action with FanDuel America’s number one sports book because right now new customers can bet $5 and get 150 in bonus bets if you win the FanDuel Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL all in one place so when you get a hunch in the middle of the game you can check out the latest stats view live playby playay and so much more on the same page where you place your bets just visit fanduel.com to join today you’ll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet that’s fanduel.com never waste a hunch and make every moment more with FanDuel an official Sportsbook partner of the NFL all right here we go we are going to get into you know the conversation that others are having and I was having some of it on Twitter this morning this afternoon as well um about is this bad for baseball with a team like the Dodgers that’s already so so loaded um they just keep getting better every year it’s like absurd in a in a sense um and so there’s definitely an argument there that it is bad for baseball but I’m actually going to make the case that I don’t think it is thanks again for making lockdown Giants your first listen today um we are uh in quote unquote offseason mode uh for a couple of months and so we’re three episodes a week and uh yeah I can’t wait um and definitely even when the Giants do anything significant we will have that like immediately uh as soon as possible emergency episode whatever so be on the lookout for that if anything happens I’m going to do my best to record as soon as I possibly can um yeah so anyway what does this mean for the Giants and is it bad for baseball and why or why not um so I’m not going to call it an argument but I had kind of a disagreement on Twitter with a listener who you know at the end of the day was it was just a a debate you know it wasn’t again like I said I don’t want to call it an argument and uh said he listens to the show so I really appreciate that um yeah it’s good to have I have no problem like disagreeing with someone and having a debate but you know this has brought up the debate over having a salary cap in baseball and a salary floor and um you know the the just so you know know the owners very much agree with you the owners would like a salary cap but the players and I tend to find myself on the side of the players on these issues they very much do not want a salary cap my understanding is baseball is the only major American professional sport that does not have a salary cap and what does that mean it means more money for players um because if you artificially cap spending which we already have by the way in the form of the luxury tax it’s not a true cap it’s more of a soft cap but it does function that way I mean the Giants are a perfect example they exceeded it but now they want to get under it because of the penalties there’s like significant penalties when it comes to draft pick compensation that’s why Blake Snell by the way was probably a top Target when it came to starting pitching of the Dodgers because they don’t want to surrender those draft picks and Blake Snell did not have a qualifying offer attached to him because the Giants couldn’t give him one because he had received one the previous year so the Giants took the hit on that just further emphasizes my point about you gave up you you you signed a qualifying offer player to a short-term deal with an opt out instead of just giving him the long-term deal that he was seeking and it ended up that you and you took the draft pick penalty whereas you know the Dodgers just sat around won the World Series without Blake Snell and then signed him and don’t have to take the draft pick hit so that’s what happens when you are I don’t know I don’t want to say risk risk averse with the contract but it wasn’t risk averse in the sense that they knew that they were surrendering draft picks uh their their second round draft pick was lost um due to signing Blake snow and another pick as well for also signing Matt Chapman and they lost International bonus pool money anyway so look I have heard really compelling arguments against having a salary cap uh and floor I’ve heard compelling arguments on both ends I mean a salary cap the argument for the cap is like parody right like we don’t want run away uh spending where a team just buys their way to the top of the Heap uh top of the mountain uh every year and the Dodgers are kind of doing that but at the same time yeah they’re making the playoffs every year they’ve made the at least 11 years in a row I think it is um but they’ve got one full season World Series to show for it and it just happened I mean before a month ago everyone was making a laughing stock of the Dodgers because they would spend all this money and not win and then I can point to a lot of teams that that spend money but don’t win I mean um in this quote unquote argument I was having or just discussion disagreement um debate whatever um I came to find that using chat GPT so I’m guessing it’s reliable but it’s just too much effort for me to do this leg work right now to to figure this out for a Twitter debate but according to chat GPT since 2019 there were only four teams that hadn’t made the playoffs and two of those teams made the playoffs this year and so since 2019 six seasons there’s only been two teams that haven’t made the playoffs in baseball and in baseball more than in other sports if you just make the playoffs you have a real shot to win the World Series or to at least go to the world World Series but also I would say there’s no difference between going and I mean there’s obviously a difference between going and winning but if you’re in the World Series you have a very good shot of winning the World Series no matter who you’re playing um and so what’s funny is that the two the two teams that haven’t made the playoffs since 2019 are the Angels and the Pirates and the Pirates are extremely Frugal Thrifty they don’t spend and it’s bad that’s bad for baseball um whereas the angels have a history of spending a lot they had Sho Otani and Mike Trout they gave huge contracts to Anthony randone and many other players over the last 15 years and it just hasn’t led to any kind of success and in fact it’s led to problems for them I mean the rentown contract is just a huge Albatross so that that’s baseball it’s like there are teams that spend and don’t win and there are teams that really don’t spend and do win like the Tampa Bay Rays the A’s are consistently in this cycle where they stink and then they’re good and then they stink and then they’re quite good uh and the Brewers don’t spend a ton and they they consistently win so the the rays are the best example CU they’re very much bottom uh feeders when it comes to payroll but not so much when it comes to the talent of their team now obviously there is a correlation between spending and winning there’s just no doubt about it but also again there are there are negatives the The Players Association is extremely anti- salary cap and floor just so you know if you side with the players at all then just hear them out there is a strong argument I don’t want to present it today because I didn’t you know I I want to be thoroughly versed on it before I just start spewing opinions um but yeah basically you know one of the things a salary floor meaning teams must spend x amount first of all the owners wouldn’t or the the yeah the owners will propose a salary I think the floor maybe the players are are are good with but the cap is what the owners want and they uh the players it’s just a non-starter for the players although it’s going to be a fight because I think in the upcoming uh uh collective bargaining when it expires the C the collective bargaining agreement in a couple years this is the big fight that the owners are gearing up for is they are going to try to finally put a salary cap in baseball and it’s not for parody don’t make any mistake about it it’s for um not having to spend as much to compete you know they don’t want to spend like they’re they’re businesses and they want to um spend as little as possible and so that’s not good for baseball and so I think honestly it’s it it is it’s almost better for baseball to have the Dodgers doing something like this if you’re a team like the Giants because your fan base is going to get cranky and you know it’s going to cause you to be motivated hopefully to spend more and if it doesn’t you’re just going to have more Angry fans which is going to be bad for your own business because people will show up less and you won’t win as much um and it’s going to I don’t I don’t know but but also just the point that like basically every team has made the playoffs since 2019 and just look at the last two World Series you had the two arguably biggest markets out there Dodgers Yankees uh and then the previous year you had the Rangers and the diacks in the World Series which is like the most random World Series you can imagine um and I think the Dbacks had won 84 games and the Dodgers this year Well Dodgers won the World Series Dbacks lost but still 84 games and make the World Series and so I don’t know the the most talented team certainly does not always win the World Series and I I was doing like a little bit of a breakdown of this I did come up with some interesting kind of numbers so since 2000 I just thought it was a solid cut off even though you did have like this outlier Dynasty period where the Yankees were winning like every year a little before that and and bleeding into the you know past 2000 a little bit but anyway since 2000 turn of the century 16 different teams have won the World Series 10 of those 16 have won it just one time only one out of five teams in the last 25 years quarter Century has won multiple championships so four fifths of teams have not won more than one Championship um in the last 25 years and only two teams have won more than two championships and that’s the Red Sox and the Giants which is funny because those are two of the crankiest fan bases out there right now and and a lot of the crankiness is about not spending and those are the two teams with the most titles since the turn of the century um just there’s some there’s something funny about that to me and then I was looking at the NBA um I didn’t do this intentionally it’s just this is what I did because it stood out so much but I looked at I was looking at NBA Finals appearances and I was just shocked at how little parody there’s been in representation in the Western Conference in the NBA Finals since 2000 so the Lakers since 2000 right 25 Seasons well this one yeah 20 they yeah they already had their Championship this year um and now they’re in their 26th year um the Lakers have been in the finals eight times the Warriors six times the Spurs five times the Mavs three times and then three other team just one time three other teams just one time so yeah that does add up to 25 but yeah so it’s something like 40% of the last 25 years it’s either been the Lakers Warriors or Spurs in the NBA Finals in the Western Conference and so that’s far less parody I I didn’t do the same in baseball I was just looking at who won the World Series but I’m certain like you don’t have that in baseball right now and so and these are Leagues with salary caps right and the and baseball doesn’t have one and yet you’re still seeing more parody in terms of representation and teams again I didn’t it’s not Apples to Apples here I’m looking at Western Conference champions which is like the equivalent of Al or NL versus actual Champions but even in the NBA you look at the list of Champions and it’s just like Lakers Spurs war warriors there’s just a ton in the last 25 years and you don’t have that in baseball you got two teams that have won more than two championships and only uh only six have won multiple championships six out of 30 in the last 20 25 years um well I think the point is that there are many teams in the NBA that have more than two championships since the year 2000 and in baseball 16 different teams have won it so anyway you know that’s just it’s not a full comparison but anyway where do the Giants go from here because um it’s not like oh all these free agents are off the Bo this just happens to be a player who played for you last year who signed with your rival for a huge dollar amount and it stings but what’s you know what’s the plan at this point for the Giants we’ll get into it in just a minute and before we do all right as promised the ramifications for the Giants I mean like I said I don’t think that the Dodgers being really good has some huge downwind effect on the Giants like Gabe kapler always said this far hany always said this and yeah there’s a case to make like well were those people really you know right about what they said most of the time and the answer is largely no but you know as a baseball team if you just make yourself good and like the Dodgers getting better isn’t going to keep you out of the playoffs if you’re a good team you may be underdogs if you have to face them in a playoff series but again looking back to two years ago the Diamondbacks that 84 win Diamondbacks team they swept the Dodgers in the division series and so it’s easy to say oh the Dodgers were like inevitable this season but they were so good the year before yeah they didn’t have Otani but they were still very very good and they got they didn’t win a game they just got swept immediately out of the playoffs two like the previous year before winning the World Series this year so if you’re the Giant it’s like you could be that team and I’m not saying aim for 84 wins but that actually is somewhat of the incentive structure in baseball by adding more playoff teams you lower the incentive to be really good um because if you just make it you have a good shot and so you don’t need to win a 100 games you only need to win like 806 um so anyway that’s another point but where do the the go from here well there’s a lot of the top players still out there in fact all of them Snell was the first like major signing of the off season and so obviously there’s Juan sto I’ve been I’m a little confused about the Giants are they interested in Juan sto like hello like you should be but we haven’t heard anything then again the Giants have historically been one of the more secretive under the radar teams out there when it comes to these kind of Pursuits like you often don’t hear about it until later the Aaron judge situation was different uh because he posted a video and also there was just that clear obvious connection with the him being you know grown up a Giants fan and all that and the Giants pursuing Superstars every off season but why why wouldn’t they be pursuing Juan sto I don’t understand that so I don’t believe it keep in mind like Carlos Korea there was nothing no chatter there was just speculation but all of a sudden they’ve got to deal with Korea uh when you didn’t hear anything about oh this that and the other and the Giants are negotiating and they’ve exchanged offers and blah blah blah or they met with him none of that none of that and so I wouldn’t count the Giants out in terms of a pursuit of Juan sto because I think there’s some reporting out there that would lead people to believe that they’re not even pursuing one sto it is interesting Buster posie was on a podcast with Jason Stark and Doug Glenville of the athletic the other day and he was talking about the failed Pursuits of superstars and he’s like well what’s the alternative are you just not going to go after these guys and so that made me think that like if if he said that that would lead me to believe they are pursuing a Wan sto because his like he he was like what’s the alternative like as if it was crazy to think are you just not going to go after these Superstar talents of course you’re going to put your best foot forward and try to bring them home you know get the deal done is what I mean by that so anyway Wan stto obviously still out there Corbin Burns uh a California Native went to school in Northern California at St Mary’s uh has the qualifying offer attached to him though so you surrender your second and fifth round picks I believe it is if you were to sign Corbin Burns that’s the downside of you know that that was the upside of Blake snells there’s no qualifying offer uh Alex bregman is still out there willing to play second base there’s one Anonymous executive who said that comment was like directed directly at the Giants also has the qualifying offer attached to him uh beyond that Willie adamus makes a lot of sense for the Giants also has the qualifying offer attached to him Max freed makes a lot of sense for the Giants also has the qualifying offer attached to him Pete Alonzo I’m not so high on on him actually and he also has a qualifying offer attached to him and Jack flare so we start to see a fallof here I don’t know I think he does have the qualifying offer attached to him but I’m actually not 100% positive Anthony santand an outfielder qualifying offer uh sha manah qualifying offer also you another example of a guy you had um teoscar Hernandez qualifying offer oh my gosh all the best players are uh having this qualifying offer same with Christian Walker who I like I think makes more sense than Pete Alonzo if you were to sign a first baseman also there’s Paul gold Schmid who does not have the qualifying offer um and then I don’t know it there is a fallof there is a fallof for sure I just think the Giants need hitters Hung Kim I didn’t mention him Tyler O’Neal like there are some quality players but and there’s also a trade market of course but um you know I think the Giants need hitting more than they need like starting pitching Juan stto willia damus Hung Kim some of these other outfielders uh if you are going to go starting pitching they’re still still good ones out there there’s a lot of good starting pitchers out there out there it’s just that almost all of them have this qualifying offer where Blake Snell did not but I don’t know I mean it end it’s a it’s a Blakes sell got paid this was no discount so if the Giants are in fact going to cut spending this year which I think being upset about that is totally fair coming off multiple disappointing seasons in a row outside of 2021 and then an 80 and 82 season and a change of regime like why are you cutting spending because they’re losing money um don’t let Forbes tell you otherwise uh Andrew baggerly reported that Giants operated at a significant loss in 2024 and that and these numbers are not public so when Forbes comes out and says the Giants had this much profit that there’s no there’s not public information I don’t know where they get that so I I’m always going to harp on that um and I think the reporting of someone like Andrew baggerly of the athletic holds a lot more weight than just some random person for Forbes writing this stuff I I do not they’re just like guessing to be honest um and then people treat it as fact anyway that is all the time we have for today free agency just the Blake Snell was like the first major move so it basically just started free agency and winter meetings are coming up uh in early December I think the 8th is when they start so we’ll see a lot of activity I expect the Giants to be active um but it does Sting seeing snow go to La uh once again my name is Ben casic let me put my name back up there uh you can follow me on Twitter Ben caspit K pic if you like this show please consider rating it or leaving a review it helps me out a lot so thank you in advance and thanks to everyone who’s done so already can’t wait to be with you again on Friday Happy Thanksgiving uh to those who celebrate thanks again for listening you are now locked on Giants

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