๐ Published on: 2024-12-18 07:28:39
โฑ Duration: 00:09:59 (599 seconds)
๐ Views: 11648 | ๐ Likes: 653
๐ Video Description:
We preview Broncos vs Chargers on Thursday Night Football plus some fun props for TNF.
Follow Cynthia Frelund
Instagram: @cynthiafrelund
X: @cfrelund
๐ Channel: Numbers Game With Cynthia Frelund
๐ Channel Country: United States
๐ Tags:
cynthia frelund,nfl,football,american football,preview,projections,point total,bills,dolphins,patriots,jets,chiefs,raiders,chargers,broncos,jaguars,colts,titans,texans,steelers,bengals,browns,ravens,packers,lions,vikings,bears,cowboys,eagles,commanders,giants,rams,49ers,cardinals,seahawks,saints,falcons,panthers,buccaneers,national football league,thursday night football,scores,game picks,player props,pat mcafee,fan duel,draft kings,underdog,los angeles,denver
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Transcript:
welcome to the numbers game week 16 tnf primer the show where analytics meet the action and the data drives the decisions I’m Cynthia Freeland and together we’ll dive deep into the stats that Define this week’s matchup between the Broncos and Chargers and uncover how the numbers make all the difference it is not just about what happens it’s about why it happens and how the numbers helped tell the story what a fancy new intro let me know what you think about it as always the thing that does matter most to me is how grateful I am for you choosing to spend some of your time and energy with me as we always do let’s have a look back before we move forward last week my model went 14 wins and two losses straight up 10- six against the spread and seven- n on totals that brings my season through 15 weeks with only 48 regular season games to go to 70.5% straight up 52.9% against the spread and 50.2% on totals moving on to tnf both the Broncos and Chargers are all but Sign Sealed and Delivered into the postseason in fact if Denver wins they are officially in but both teams advance in no fewer than 82% of my simulations of course both as wild cards now seeding is a very big deal here because remember seven plays two six plays three so who’s two likely the bills who’s three likely the winner of the the AFC North which would happen to be the Ravens so this one’s very interesting although I will say based on my outcome the Chargers do end up in a specific spot I’ll tell you at the end the total is 42 points and the Chargers are field goal home favorites in their first go round back in week six where the Chargers prevailed 23 to 16 bonck averaged his third most air yards per attempt at 10.7 on downfield passes remember those are the ones intended to travel more than 10 air yards he went 7 to 14 for 140 yards with two touchdowns and an interception on them looking at Man versus Zone splits he was one of five for two yards with one of those touchdowns and an interception when the Chargers used Man versus being 18 of 28 for 214 yards in the other touchdown versus Zone pretty stark contrast here now on the ground we know that Bon knck likes to scramble in that game he scrambled on three of eight dropbacks when La gave him man where he earned 29 yards with three first downs and against Zone pretty similar he added two more first downs on three attempts along with 32 more yards in that game his average time to throw was 3.78 seconds which was the ninth longest of any quarterback in a game since NextGen stats started tracking in 2016 it follows that he faced a 49% pressure rate which is his career high water mark by the way only 1/4th of those pressures were quick pressures those are ones that happened in under 2.5 seconds since then bonix has not held on to the ball as long over his past four games his average time to throw has been 2.77 seconds and about 43% of his passes have been in sub 2.5 seconds not the quick passes mean success but here it is perhaps a bit of a proxy for his comfort level increasing and that is also a part of what drove their win last week despite him throwing three picks nx’s production against split safety coverages is a potential Advantage for the Broncos should the Chargers stick with their trend of using these coverages on 55% of plays which is the second highest rate in the NFL in week six down throttled it to just 42% and on those Nicks was 10 of 13 for 107 yards and a touchdown compared with single high looks where he was eight of 19 for 107 yards and a pick as for LA’s quarterback in week six Justin Herbert used play action on a tied for season High 45% of dropbacks completing just eight of those 15 attempts for 49 yards he also had his season low EPA at negative 7.2 on play action the Broncos defense did not allow the Chargers pass catchers to get open when they used play action Herbert was only able to Target an open receiver on three of his 15 attempts by the way open to Next Gen stats is defined as a receiver with at least three yards of separation and three of 15 meaning having three open Targets on 15 attempts that is his season low overall this season play action has been Herbert’s go-to using it on 32% of all dropbacks good for the third highest rate in the league which means it’s relevant to look at the Denver defensive season long stats against it they have allowed the second lowest success rate and the lowest EPA against it at negative 21.3 the Broncos used man coverage on 53% of dropbacks in week six that’s their second highest rate in game this season and remember in that game Patrick certan only played one snap it was a forced incompletion and in this game he’s trending towards playing but it is not 100% as of this recording for that whole game Herbert was 9 of 20 for 123 yards and a touchdown with six incompletions and just one reception against tight coverage we all know the Broncos Blitz have you heard that summer before all season long I don’t think their rate has dropped below second highest at any point but in that week six tilt it was 61% that is the seventh highest for any defense in a game this season by the way in it they generated their second highest rate of pressure off the blitz at over 47% however Justin Herbert had his season high in yards against the blitz at 136 bottom line here I think the wrong team is favored my model has the Broncos with the win splitting the season series with the bolts and stamping their ticket to the postseason and the score 22-21 the Chargers have the type of injuries offensive line lad makoni Justin Herbert that aren’t necessarily keeping guys sidelined but it is hard to argue that they’re playing close enough to 100% we do know JK Dobbins is on ir and since he’s been gone the Run game has been more challenging I know the game script wasn’t great for the Run game last week but they had 32 total rushing yards against the Bucks since week 13 zero of their play players who have attempted a run on first down so the quarterback and running backs have earned positive rushing yards over expected and no one is averaging more than 3.9 yards on that first down which means setting up the rest of the drive to show us a little bit more of the context in that it relied so much more heavily on passes which brings us to our tnf menu last week George KD’s yards hitting more than 57 and a half were a lone bright spot in an otherwise sleepy slow night although we did get the winner which was an upset the total we got like a lot of things right just not these props let’s start with our Bland ingredients first remember these are props that happen in at least 55% of my simulations number one Gus Edwards to rush for more than 35 and a half yards he will not be appearing on my weekly top 25 running back list that’s the one I put out on Wednesdays but it is more than that extremely low number he will Rush more than 35 and a half yards Number Two Marvin Mims to earn more than 26 and a half receiving yards Mims has the second highest deep route rate in the NFL at 32% he got loose for a 93 yard touchdown in week 13 which I’m not saying happens here with a very high probability at all but I am saying that deep routes help forecast for him to exceed 26 and a half total yards number three ston smart to stay under 36 and a half receiving yards I know tight end is one of the better places to Target this Broncos defense however both of these teams are near the top of the league in plays where zero tight ends are on the field the Chargers do it the third most often and just for good measure the Broncos rank fifth on to The Spicy ingredients these happen in at least 48% of simulations but have the kind of volatility that make the juice worth the squeeze two Bland and a spicy is a normal amount of risk two spicies in a bland is my preference so mix and match as you like number one this might be my favorite one for the entire game bonck to rush for more than 21 and a half yards I have him for 27 or more in 48% of simulations number two lad makuni to have more than 64 half receiving yards lad has lined up in the slot on over 65% of snaps and he’s earned the second most yards from there at 550 along with the most receiving yards overe expected at 141 I also have the game script dictating more passes later in the game number three more than 42 points uh but sin you said at the beginning like your season long situation is like just barely over 50% so are you sure about that uh I hate it but I spent way too much time this week looking into what is up with me on totals this year so in order to get better I am digging in in this case both defenses are great the Broncos are the best by winshare on the entire season looking at recent forms so over the past four games it shows that both teams are having a tough time running the football more passes means more possessions means more potential for errors as well you see how this all starts to flow two quick notes before we go number one be on the lookout for a special guest episode we have to get this like college football playoff situation figured out what’s the menu what are we looking for here there’s so many more things that we need to talk about as we get a full month of college football that actually matters not just like random bowl games and a few good ones this is fantastic so I have asked one of my friends who’s one of the smartest football Minds around he is a literal PhD football analytics gaming he does great stuff for March Manis you’re going to get to know him too because he is awesome we’ll have a little chat about the college football playoffs for this specific spe ific show though and second we have a winner we have named the AI segment which I will tell you in the full episode I will see you back here for that full episode with the rest of the week’s games in a day or so and of course projections scores and more are ready for you to use as you wish on Wednesday the 18th remember they change daily with the injury report and news thank you so much for hanging out and if you like the show please like subscribe and pass it along so we can continue to grow
๐ Related Hashtags: #Broncos #Chargers #Week #Thursday #Night #Football #Preview
Disclaimer: This video is embedded directly from YouTube. All rights to the video and content belong to the original creator, Numbers Game With Cynthia Frelund. For more details, please visit the original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDWTBpiVtko.
