📅 Published on: 2024-11-27 21:15:03

⏱ Duration: 00:23:39 (1419 seconds)

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“DodgerHeads” host Jeff Spiegel and DodgerBlue.com senior editor Daniel Starkand analyze the Los Angeles Dodgers signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract, what it means for Walker Buehler, Roki Sasaki and more implications with the starting rotation.
#DodgerBlue #Dodgers #BlakeSnell

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🕵️‍♂️ Transcript:

[Music] what’s up everybody happy Wednesday morning this is Dodger heads presented by Dodger blue.com my name is Jeff ble joined this morning by Daniel starkin to break down a huge deal that broke last night in the middle of a live show that we were doing the Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a five-year $182 million deal uh he was one of the top four to seven free agents depending on where you looked the guy the Dodgers had been linked to Daniel in the middle of our live show you hopped on at halftime of the Lakers game Anthony and I were there this news broke now that you’ve had a little bit of time to digest and process this where does your head go with the news that Blake Snell’s a Dodger yeah well first of all I think it’s great that it that the news dropped right in the middle of the live show last night and I went and watched it back and you and Anthony were literally talking about Blake snow and then you’re like wait a second like you know Blake tweeted out a picture of himself in a Dodger jersey so that was incredible I will say though it is nice like like reacting it to it live is great obviously and it makes for great content but it is also nice to be able to digest it for a night and come back here in in the morning and talk about it and um after I’ve been able to do that like I’ve only gotten more excited about this signing like I think it’s a perfect match here obviously we know um you know that the Dodgers have had interest in Blake snow for a while now and it it finally came to fruition and we’ll get into all the numbers and all that stuff but I I really think it’s a great deal and now the Dodgers rotation you know they still have more work to do but it’s it’s looking great yeah as it currently stands the projected Dodger starting rotation involves Blake Snell Tyler glassnow shoi Otani and Yoshi noou Yamamoto at the top all four of those guys could be number one starters the do have four of them I mean literally the fourth guy on that list is the highest paid pitcher in Major League history in Yoshi noou Yamamoto and then behind that I’m including Kershaw on this list because I think it’s it’s assumed he will be back but it’s Kershaw Dustin may Tony gunzelin Landon Knack and then even EMT Shen who’s du back partway through the season and you could keep going Bobby Miller Nick frasso Ben casparus Justin roesy are all other guys in the mix and so that’s where it stands but in order to set up this morning’s show I fig I would I would kind of just ask five questions that get at the heart of the contract why now all that kind of thing so let’s start with the timing Daniel why now why before Thanksgiving is Blake Snell but both for the Dodgers why have the Dodgers moved so quickly do you think on Blake Snell and then secondly why do you think Blake Snell was willing to be the first guy to kind of break the ice and and agree to terms I I’ll start with Blake snow because to me that’s that’s an easy reason and we talked about this last night as well like he was was kind of the guy at the endend of free agency last year who was left without a home and that was coming off a sa young season and then you see him signed with the Giants like in the middle of March or whatever it was so he basically had no spring training and his first half like sucked because of it and and he dealt with injuries you know potentially because of that and then obviously he came back and he was incredible in the second half but looking at this from Blake Snell’s perspective he probably wanted to sign as early as possible here and and the fact that he got you know a deal of his liking a long-term deal like a lot of money um of course some deferred money in there as well but um it it it just made all the sense for him and of course you know everyone wants to play for the Dodgers right now so if the Dodgers are giving you a a market rate you know offer like I don’t see any of these guys really turning that down um and if you’re looking at it from the Dodgers side obviously we knew that they needed a you know a top end starting pitcher like we’ve that’s all we’ve been talking about on on our shows pretty much comp Ing and contrasting which ones we like the best and we all came to the same conclusion that the Dodgers did I’m pretty sure is that Blake Snell was kind of the best of the highlevel options here so they went after him and they got him and I think part of it is also like a lot of other teams are focused on Juan stto right now as they should be and and the Dodgers have some of their attention on that as well but when a lot of those teams fall out of the WAN stto sweep Stakes you know specifically like the Mets and Steve Cohen like they’re going to want to spend their money elsewhere and if the Dodgers would have waited here and and let’s say Snell’s still on the board and stto resigns with the Yankees like Steve Cohen might have turned and said hey Blake Snell like here’s 200 million over five years and if you’re the Dodgers you don’t necessarily want to get in a bidding war so the fact that they were able to kind of lock this up you know while everyone else is focused elsewhere and and weren’t really in a bidding war I think worked out perfectly yeah I I think the point you make on Snell is perfect I mean this is a guy who was the last guy at the dance with no date basically shout out to the Giants though for signing to a one-year deal giving up the qualifying offer picks and then as you pointed out on social media uh winning nothing with that so thank you for taking that bullet for the Dodgers taking the qualifying offer and then allowing him to just be an unrestricted free agent this time around but as far as for the Dodgers it’s important to note there there are more teams that need starting pitching than there are starting pitchers on the market and so the Dodgers jumped at the guy who a they probably perceived to be the most desperate and Snell for all the reasons we just mentioned but also a guy that they’ve been linked to I mean it’s not rocket science to have connected the Dodgers to Blake snell a they needed a top tier starting pitcher and B Snell is a guy that was drafted by Andrew Freedman pursued by Andrew Freedman a year ago pursued at the trade deadline last year like you couldn’t read an article about Blake Snell without somebody connecting him to the Dodgers and yet the Dodgers actually go through they actually put their money where their mouth was they made the first offer they came to an agreement and he’s off the board you mentioned deferred money so let’s talk about question number two what is the contract actually though we know 5 years 182 million but it’s the Dodgers surely there’s some funky stuff here here’s what we know it’s five years 182 he gets a $52 million signing bonus in part because he lives in an income free state in Washington so that’s helpful for him the CBT number is closer to 32 to 33 on average the signing bonus is included in the aav so don’t listen to all the soci media who don’t understand how contract Works um and I want to shout out Justin lber because there are defer deferred money here but he pointed out and nobody likes to talk about this unless it’s the Dodgers on average 20 to 30% of these contracts are deferred nowadays and he went through and listed out a bunch of the Red Sox contract and other teams that are deferring Blake snells got 33% of his money deferred roughly in this contract so the aav for luxury T purposes again is 32 33 the actual money he’s going to be making is about $36 million a year I will say Daniel the athletic projected four years and 110 MLB trade rumors predicted five years and 160 so this number on an actual dollars number comes in higher than both of those were you surprised at all by that the 182 number I guess a little surprised just because in the Andrew Freedman era we haven’t really seen the Dodgers go out and spend on a on a big name free agent pitcher like uh you know know Yamamoto I think was kind of his own you know separate thing just because of how young he was but Blakes snow is is going to be 32 you know by the time opening day runs you know rolls around so giving him five years was a little surprising but I think it’s a deal that kind of makes sense for everyone um he get you know Blake gets the signing bonus like you said he lives in Washington so he saves a little on the taxes there and to be clear like you said for all the people who don’t understand the CBT that that still counts against the aav like this isn’t the NFL where you could restructure and and push the money down the line or whatever like that’s not the case here the signing bonus basically means nothing to the fans yeah um and like you said with the deferrals it’s it’s not like you know they’re saving 20 million B you know bucks against the aav like they’re saving four million like it’s really not that big of a deal but um you know it was a contract that that worked out for everyone and now the Dodgers you know don’t have to be as concerned about starting pitching like getting another highlevel guy in there I will say like when you go down the list of all their arms every single guy has their own individual concerns so you just hope that at least five of them could hold up until October but um you know we knew that the Dodgers were were going to go after one of the big starting pitchers and um you know they paid market value for it so credit to them yeah which leads to the next question is he that good five years $182 million for a guy who’s going to be 32 next season I’ll throw some numbers at you that leave me encourage Daniel and then you can fill in the gaps here’s kind of the two things that Blake Snell is aite at he is Elite at getting swing and miss and he is Elite at keeping hitters away from hitting the ball hard off of him which I don’t know I don’t I’m not claiming to be an expert here on pitching that seems like a good combination being able to get whiff and not allowing hard contact he was 98th percentile in whiff rate for each of the last two years 99th percentile in hard hit rate last year that leads to a 998th percentile expected batting average a 99th percentile expected slugging percentage there’s also this when you look at stuff plus he has one of the top 15 fast balls in all of Major League Baseball and one of the top 15 curveballs in all of Major League Baseball we’re going to get to the walks and all of that in just a second but from a pure stuff swing and Miss limiting hard contact perspective Daniel you could make a case he’s one of the three or four best pitchers in all of baseball yeah he he might be underrated if we’re being honest especially when you talk about what he kind of went through last offseason not having that suitors um coming off a saong year which is is pretty crazy to think about not his first sayong his second song like this is the guy who is is really like you said he’s a top three or four pitcher and when you look at like I tweeted out his second half numbers last year like after he went through the you know the debacle of signing late you know not having a spring training not doing well to start the year getting injured after he came back he was the best pitcher in baseball I tweeted this from July 9th on on 14 starts he was 5-0 um with a one 123 erra a a 17 FIP so it’s it’s not like he was getting lucky or anything his whip was 0.78 um and in 80 Innings he had 114 strikeouts so so the swing and Miss stuff like you said and only 30 walks which like you said we’re going to get into the walk issue but if he’s limiting it to that which you know 30 walks and 80 Innings is still a solid amount but the thing with him and and the walks is that he doesn’t give up hits so so if guys are getting on base it’s because of the walk so if you you took away half his walks and called them hits like I think everyone would be saying this guy’s unquestionably you know the best pitcher in baseball so um you know the Dodgers are getting a True Ace here and you you do worry about the age on on probably the back half of that contract because he is going to be 32 and it’s five years but if you get you know three really good years out of him I I think you’ll be okay with it let’s talk question number four about the walks and the injuries because these are the two big questions that a lot of people have let’s start with the injuries in 2018 he threw 180 Innings since he has repeated that just one time that was 2023 if we throw out 2020 in the shorten season he’s averaging 129 Innings pitched per season over the last five years and just 25 starts which isn’t great and yet Eno Saras had this nugget in the last five years he has not had an elbow or shoulder injury at any point mostly has dealt with groin and adductor injuries uh only 46 pitchers have thrown more Innings over the last four seasons than Blake Snell so part of this is just a Major League wide issue not unique to Blake Snell um so on the injury side we’re gonna get to walks in a second on the injury side again no elbow or shoulder injuries in the last five years but he is about to turn 32 and he has missed you know about 10 starts a year it feels like for the last four or five years so what’s your level of concern on that front I think there there’s always a level of concern with any pitcher whether like like you could choose to interpret the information you just gave like however you want like like like we we we had this conversation pretty recently where it’s like if a guy’s thrown 200 Innings the last three years like that sounds like great news he’s super durable but that also means that mileage is probably gonna catch up with him at some point so you know you could look at the fact that he’s only average 130 Innings or whatever and say that’s a great thing like you know there’s not a whole lot of mileage on that arm even though he’s 32 or you could say you know he’s probably going to get injured again which is the case with pretty much all pitchers like we we know that as Dodger fans like all these guys are gonna get injured but when you’re talking about you know wanting to keep a guy healthy having him in this rotation where they’re probably GNA run a six-man rotation like no one’s going to throw 200 innings in the regular season like that’s probably the best case scenario here and and there’s no exact signs to this as as every team in the MLB is finding out when it comes to pitcher injuries like like we had you know uh some some guys saying they they think you know they’re they’re getting injured because they’re not pitching enough and and obviously um you know some you know sometimes it’s they’re throwing too much so it you know it’s hard to predict if he’s gonna get injured or not but I do think he’s in the right environment where he’s not going to be you know overused or anything and he should be able to stay fresh throughout the year I think that should be good for him yeah and I think injury is the biggest concern that you have I mean it’s very similar to Tyler glass now in the acquisition of him last year I think injuries are the concern the second thing a lot of people bring up though are walks and The more I’ve read about Blake Snell and dug into people that you know are watching him day by day and actually studying his pitching I was fascinated Daniel at how little concern many of the smartest people in baseball have about Blake Snell’s walks and here’s why drivve line has a stat that’s called command plus and he’s tied for 11th in Major League Baseball in command plus one of the guys he’s tied with is George Kirby who is like notoriously believed to be like the best command in Major League Baseball and Blake Snell grades out the same now his walk rate is over four over the last three years so how is that possible there’s a guy named Kyle Bland at pitcher list I want to give him a shout out he he created sort of a category that’s called mistake pitches um pitches that generate fewer called or swinging strikes and have twice as many hits per pitch and when he graded out mistake pitches this is what he said in his conclusion this is from 202 23 after the 2023 season this brings me back to Blake Snell he refuses to throw mistakes only 3.2% of his pitches are classified as mistakes while Yuri Perez was second in the category among pitchers with 1500 pitches at 4.3% some of that has to do with him not letting not hitting the strike zone but even when we control for mistake pitches per Zone pitch he leads the league by a relatively wide margin his strategy is to never miss in the middle of the Zone which will yield a high walk rate if you have even average control but he knows that his stuff will allow him to generate strikeouts there so basically the reason he’s walking guys is not because he’s missing his spot it’s because he says I would rather Miss off the plate than in the middle of the plate and he misses in the middle of the plate Daniel less than any pitcher in Major League Baseball yeah and look you mentioned how his hard hit rate was among the best in in the league as far as you know the baseball Savant you know percentiles go and that’s a big reason for that so like yeah he is walking some people but he’s not giving up hits he’s not giving up hard contact he’s not giving up home runs so like it’s kind of like a no harm no foul type of thing like the main thing I will say it does hurt is a lot of times it hurts his pitch count like there are a lot of Blake Snell starts where you look up in the fifth inning and he’s at 89 pitches or whatever but you also look up and there there will be a a one next to the opponent’s you know run category or something you know so he’s Elite at preventing runs and and at the end of the day that’s the the whole goal with this yeah and I do think look the Dodgers will work with him he he already cut down on his walk rate you know last year um the year he won the sa young it was 5.0 which is absurdly High um this past year you know his walks walks per nine was 3.8 so he has had years where he has been able to limit the walks and um I think you know the Dodgers will probably make some tweaks and whatnot but like you said you know he doesn’t mind the walks because he’s he’s trying to avoid barrels and and he’s trying to avoid the middle of the plate where where guys could really do damage and and he’s shown that guys don’t do damage off of him so um it it is a little frustrating to watch when a guy’s walking you know four or five guys and Outing but if he’s getting out of those jams and not giving up runs like so be it yeah think about a walk like just on paper you only get one base everybody else if there’s anybody on base only moves up if it’s a force so there’s no first to third situations when you’re giving up a walk and if you’re Blake Snell who gets more swing and Miss than anybody in Major League Baseball has a strikeout rate that’s Elite and if guys happen to put the ball in play which doesn’t happen very often it’s the lowest quality of contact in all of Major League Baseball then you’re fine with giving guys a free base three or four times in a five or six inning stretch you know which is what it works out to because nobody’s getting hits and nobody’s hitting the ball hard and so to your point I mean who knows if the walk rate goes up or down but basically what we know as I was posting on Twitter today you look at his batting average on balls in play his walk rate in his ra and a lot of people would look at those three numbers and say this isn’t sustainable you can’t sustain such a low batting average on balls in play such a high walk rate and still have a low erra dot dot dot unless you’re Blake snow and unless you get the swing and miss that you get and limit the hard contact that you get and now we found that it’s sustainable so let’s move to the last question which I think is the biggest question most Dodger fans are asking maybe other than is he actually good which is what does this mean for Walker berer saki Jack flarity and others um we speculated Daniel on our show last night most of us agreed we didn’t think this was going to change the interest in either ber or Sasaki John marosi did go on MLB Network this morning saying he believes the Dodgers will now be out or probably beer will be gone I believe with his language I’m not sure if that’s sourced information or if that’s kind of connecting dots and saying surely they’re not also going to sign Walker bu but what do you think about how this impacts both ber and Sasaki I’ll start with Sasaki because that’s the easy one like this has no impact on that like whatsoever like rogi suaki is his own thing like he’s gonna be making no money so it’s not like oh we have you know we spent all this money on Blake snow we can’t afford Roki Sasaki like that’s not what it’s about for him the Dodgers will still very much be in the mix for Roki Sasaki and it’ll probably it’s pretty much just going to be up to Roki Sasaki as far as who he wants to play for and I would imagine the fact that Blake Snell is on the Dodgers and they got that much better probably makes them more appealing to a guy like Roki Sasaki and of course they have the arms for a six-man rotation which which he wants as well so we’ll see with that and then Walker beer I I still kind of stand by what I said last night which is um it it does like I wouldn’t rule it out I definitely would not rule it out and I I think it’s GNA be kind of up to ber s similar to saki I guess but like is BU does ber want to sign right away and if that’s the case it might not be the Dodgers just because they might they might be waiting around for the next month and a half to see what happens with Roki Sasaki and then if they don’t land Sasaki they might pivot elsewhere um but I think the thing about ber is he’s not he’s probably not signing a long-term deal like he’s GNA be a one or twoyear deal which when you’re talking you know about the Dodgers like a they they love that and B it doesn’t affect you know the long-term Outlook that much so they would be willing to to do that and and maybe spend a little more for the next couple years um just knowing that hey this is our window like we want to go for it and of course we all love Walker ber and would love to see him back but if Walker is trying to lock down a two or threee deal within the next couple weeks that’s probably not happening with the Dodgers but if he’s willing to wait it out a little bit and and kind of see how his Market develops see what other moves the Dodgers make I definitely think they’ll still be in the mix there and um you know let’s say the Dodgers don’t land Roki Sasaki I I think they’re going to need at least one more starting pitcher so why not Walker beer and if it’s not him they probably just kind of pivot to another one-year type deal like an Innings eater type like similar to the move they made with James Paxton last year and obviously that that didn’t work out too well but sometimes you just need an Innings eater and and the fact that James Paxton was able able to eat 90 Innings or whatever it was in the first half of the year when pretty much everyone else was hurt like that that provides value even if they’re not great Innings so I I I think the Dodgers are still going to be in the starting pitching Market they’re still very much involved in Roki Sasaki um but but but you know we haven’t talked about the other big names but I think they’re out on all those guys as well it’s safe to say like Jack flare Max freed Corbin burns like none of those guys will be Dodgers I would imagine yeah I agree nothing to add on Sasaki he’s his own category and nothing is going to impact whether the Dodgers are able to land him um I tend to agree with you on ber still as well that I think the Dodgers are still going to be interested I think is kind of you know um in many ways for the same reasons they love Kik Hernandez he’s just a proven playoff performer I think the Dodgers have learned over their their sort of three-year drought of of no World Series trophies in 21 22 and 23 that you just can’t o undervalue guys that perform in the big moments and in the postseason obviously Walker beer has been that and so I think to your point if Walker beer is interested in coming back to the Dodgers and as long as there’s not some crazy offer out there I think the Dodgers are going to be in it until the end with Walker berer and that ultimately the decision will rest with him that’s just a guess you know it’s possible morosi has more information and is actually reporting basically that the Dodgers were going to Pivot to ber if they couldn’t get a guy like Blake Snell but remains to be seen on that front so there’s your five questions on Blake Snell why now what’s the contract is he good what about the walks and the injuries and what does this mean for Walker buer and Roki Sasaki we appreciate everybody for joining us here again if you missed last night live show you can jump to the 49 minute Mark somebody in the comments was nice enough to tag it 49 on the dot you’ll see Anthony W and I reacting live to news that Blake Snell was going to be a Dodger and uh and then we had another hour’s worth of content with Daniel hopping on and then Matt hopping on and Blake hopping on and so tons of content to get there of course you can check Dodger bl.com for all the latest uh thank you for joining us that’s Daniel starkin I am Jeff Spiegel as always please subscribe ring the notification Bell in the uh comments leave us a comment in the comments below enjoy the rest of your day as always go Dodgers

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