📅 Published on: 2024-12-28 18:08:41
⏱ Duration: 00:14:58 (898 seconds)
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@theleafsnation401 The Maple Leafs host the Washington Capitals on the first night of a back-to-back for Game 26 of the 2024/2025 Regular season. Zack Phillips gives us his breakdown and best bet for the game.
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
what’s up Leafs Nation welcome back to another game preview I’m Zach Phillipson today we’re going to be taking a look at game number 37 in the tronto Maple’s regular season as they take on Alex oetkin who returns to the lineup actually in the Washington Capitals here tonight on the second night of a backtack today we’ll break down the lines what we saw last night what we might see here tonight some news out of morning skate here we’ll give out our best bet and it’s all a presentation of bet 365 proud partner of the leaf station pregame and the leaf Nation after dark open an account bet 365 today and bet on a huge range of markets use code Nation n a IO n all caps Nation n a t IO n whatever the moment it’s never ordinary at bet 365 all right uh first and foremost you guys know it I am in a hotel in Ottawa here for the world juniors right now which means that I have a little bit of a limited setup so we can’t get some of the lineups and that stuff up on the screen for you to see in real time let’s go though I will run it down and tell you what we’ve got as per Daily face off which is crediting here David alter who has updated these ones as of last night which I think is likely what we’ll see here in today’s game keep it in mind though obviously with the second night of a back to back some moving parts we could see some adjustments here where hey maybe this guy will um slot to a different line but the main structure will still be there I can’t imagine there will be too many major changes here tonight with what I’m seeing from the lineup to what we see ahead of the game that being said we could see them so bear with us let’s start with the first line Max petti alongside John Taris and Mitch Marner I think that this makes a lot of sense given the chemistry that patet and taras have built obviously I like the way NIS Marner and Matthews play together but if you’re going to look at Taris and patet the two of them how they’ve been producing alongside each other the chemistry how comfortable they seem to be feeling next to one another that makes the most sense here for me I got no issues there uh and also on top of that Mitch Marner and John Taris is an extremely extremely uh good Duo they have proven time and time again that they’re able to generate offense they uh have kind of combined for some of the best seasons of either of their careers so those two going together I think is no issue for me here tonight that line as a whole I think has some good construction you get uh you get the physical presence the four checking from pater ready and then you get playmaking and goal scoring between Mitch Marner there who scores a hattrick last night and John Taris second line Matthew nce pontis homberg and William neander um pontis Holberg in the second as the second line Center is very just interesting to me because uh he’s a guy who has really been underwhelming this season um we talked about in the Christmas special that we did with Hudson Rosie you know under underwhelming per players or like players that have just been disappointing Ponto somberg was a guy for me that I debated putting on that list just not because I thought he would score 30 40 goals this year but because I thought he would be a little bit more productive I thought he would continue to take steps off of what he had done previously and it feels like he has kind of uh hit a a wall uh maybe even regressed a little bit there which is unfortunate for Holberg and his develop and the Leafs who need a guy like that to continue to grow and step up and get better year after year but if he’s ever going to have an opportunity to kind of elevate his game and get back in the right foot it’s with William neander uh a guy who can just drive play make things happen really push the pace of things so if you’re going to play with him here you better be ready to capitalize on opportunities he creates for you which I anticipate neander to do um the other guy who’s a Winger on on this line is Matthew n and nce has been taking a lot of criticism lately especially on the after dark show from those of you in the chat I’m a little bit more of an nice apologist I feel like he’s provided enough evidence and enough body of work to suggest that uh he will get out of this and what he is right now and how he’s playing right now is not who he is as a whole like in the bigger picture this is just a rough spot uh but that being said we can’t ignore the fact that he has not played well that that re as of recent I struggled finding the words there uh he has not played that well as of recent he is not generated he’s not producing offense and a guy like that obviously I’m not demanding him to be producing offense I you’d like him to be bringing it in other areas of the game physicality the four check winning battles maybe a playmaking ability and some of that and then capitalizing here and there but it’s kind of all turned down a little bit he is not not being that noticeable and I want some more out of him but again I mean to go back and back again uh I I’ve said I’m a ni apologist a little bit I think he’s going to get out of this and I’m not really concerned I think if he plays with a guy like neander um here we are talking about William neander being a guy who could fix players and kind of break them out of things just because it doesn’t matter for him who he plays with he’s going to drive play and he’s going to make stuff happen and I feel like n could capitalize on that here tonight so that’s your second line those are your top six the third line that I love to see back together is Bobby McMahon Max DOI and Nick Robertson this third line has been uh ex excellent since McMahon and doy uh returned from injury there I I feel like they’ve been generating a lot they are winning their minutes they have been all over the board I mean they combined for another one again there last night Nick Robertson scores with 1.3 seconds left on the clock like this this line has an identity they are fast they are skilled but they are also not afraid of anything even Nick Robertson is finishing every single check right now which you just you got to love you got to appreciate from a guy like that fourth line which opened the scoring last night for the leaves uh Steven lorence David Camp Connor derer that fourth line uh I called them vanilla before the game yesterday I hope that what we saw yesterday from them is more who they can be long term because they were creating offense they were winning battles they won that they they scored very early on there open the scoring for the team David Cam’s 500th game but it didn’t stop there they were able to continue on after that it wasn’t anything that jumps off the page to you but it was certainly worth noting how they had been kind of driving some of their minutes against Detroits which I thought was a uh I thought was a positive for the team if you have a bottom six guys winning the minutes then you’re you’re in a much better position uh deep pairings here as we have currently listed Riley Myers McCabe tanev emman luris and benoa I mean I wouldn’t be surprised if these change um I I think the biggest thing here is finding a way to get Morgan Riley going he’s not been playing that well I know the team has some confidence in Fleet Myers and thinks he could be a full-time NHL guy here maybe a guy who can continue to grow into this role with this beliefs team but uh I personally just don’t think it’s with Morgan r and now the tough part comes in that you’re trying to find ways to insulate him um the more I thought about it I had some frustrations like oh he’s supposed to be a top four guy and emman Larson can play top four mcabe tanv play top four why would we have to go and get Morgan Riley a player like Shen or whatever like that that model of player to play alongside of him saying what the hell are we doing why does this make sense why why do we need to get that guy a player but the the more more I think about it the more that this could actually be helpful because if you could put a guy like Shen for example like it could be anyone but just an example Luke shenon alongside Morgan Riley and he stabilizes now you get to play mcab and tanv together and then you get to put oel onto your third pairing and you don’t have to deploy him as a third pairing defenseman like Olman Larson can eat some minutes there he can play Big moments he could swap up with other guys if need be he can play with tan he could play with Riley he could play with Shen if you wanted him there instead of Riley he can play with your lower pairing guys and he can also play power play he can play penalty kill like you could use him whenever wherever so it probably isn’t as uh drastic as it had originally been made out to be in my mind but uh regardless for the time being what you have here on this roster and who the guys are filling out around Morgan Riley and these other guys it’s frustrating to have to see Morgan Riley be insulated when he makes $7.5 million I I I think that that’s fair to say uh those are your de pairings for tonight though we do get confirmation here that Matt Murray will play obviously we know Matt Murray uh as it we tried to lay out the other day will bounce around between the Marley and and the uh Maple Leafs if he exceeds uh 10 games played I believe it is or 30 days with the team total then he will be eligible for waivers uh so the Leafs to avoid this will continue to call him up on the day that he is playing and send him down IM immediately after that will effectively negate or delay at least the point that we have to get to where he could be waver eligible and claim by somebody else so Matt Murray gets a start here tonight on the second night of a backtack as they take on the Washington Capitals let’s get to our best bet here tonight our best bet segment is brought to you by bet 365 proud partner in leaf station pregame and leaf station after dark open an account with bet 365 today and bet on a huge range of markets use code Nation n a i o n all caps Nation whatever the moment it’s never ordinary at bet 365 all right uh best bet lost last night that brings us to 13 and 28 on the season 41 Best Bets that have been given out here over the course of 36 games game 37 here tonight and um I’m going back back to the basics I tried to get fancy last night honestly I was looking at it and I was like yeah um we’ll go with shots on goal Tois you know there was a mathematical Edge on it also just thinking about it you know I was like okay we’re going to have an opportunity here he’s going to be the focal point he’s the offensive guy marner’s going to feed him all night and they decided to switch rules so we had over three and a half shots on go Taris plus 145 that one loses I’m pretty sure JT finished with zero shots on goal he played unbelievable last night was a massive part of the offense but just not shots on goal uh dishing to everybody getting open Ice winning battles like he was phenomenal but it didn’t help us with our bet so we lose the over three and a half shots on goal tonight we’re going back to the basics we’re going back to Old Reliable and if you guys have been following me for any period of time it’s one that I have gone to a lot obviously Austin Matthews anytime goal it’s to it’s one of the favorites but it’s not what I’m going with here tonight what I’m going with here tonight will be a William neander anytime gou William neander anytime G plus 150 we’re going to go a full unit on this one Whatever your units are just you can base that judge that accordingly I’m going $100 on this one to profit 150 there’s a slight mathematical Edge on this one for neander Anytime goal but also on top of that uh this is a guy who thriv lives and situations when he’s playing with non Elite Talent and what I mean by Elite would be maror Matthews taras I’m not saying anything to disrespect pontis Holberg or Matthew n but you throw neander onto lines with those guys and he all of a sudden winds up and goes yep let’s go give me the puck let’s go I’m going to get this thing done at plus 150 this is a number we’re seeing on newlander in games like against the Sabers and against the Canadians and teams that are are like that and you think okay Washington here why would Zach go with this one at plus 150 if it’s around those same numbers and stuff like he’s he’s dipping down it’s tighter the reason is because he’s going to be in a really prominent role and this is a guy who steps up without Matthews like if Matthews is here yeah I I probably am looking for a little bit juicier number for neander tonight against the capitals but reality is he’s on that power PL he’s the best shooter of all the guys on there so he’s the one that would kind of get to capitalize the most offensively or scoring wise with Mar with Matthews out marner’s probably going to be looking to feed him here tonight in the in the inverse uh he gets late game minutes if you’re up and there’s an empty net you’re going to get an opportunity at those the other thing for neander here that I look at is um he plays the full two minutes of the power play so it’s not just the minutes that he’s getting with Matthews out on that first unit and like him being the focal point there but it’s just getting to go with the second unit there as well so William Neer anytime goal plus 150 that’s our best bet if you did like the video hit that like button subscribe here to the channel uh we appreciate you guys tuning in to all the content we’re putting out here whether it’s morning take the game previews like this one or the leaf station after dark thank you all for all the support make sure to hit that like button subscribe here at the Leafs Nation 401 I will be back for another postgame live stream tonight following the game against the Washington Capitals around 9:45 after this video is over and this thing is uploaded I’m going to get my on over to watch the US World Junior hockey team make sure to tune in to that one on TV but uh until then and until later following the Capitals game I’m pumped about this one tonight the the Leafs started that one off against the Red Wings on the right foot which is not something they normally do coming out of holidays so I feel maybe a little bit different about this group thanks so much for watching drop your predictions below let me know if you like the best bet or not uh we will see you all for another edition of Leaf’s Nation after dark following the game tonight until then keep beling for more content just like this including game previews postgame live shows Leafs morning take Monday through Friday with Nick alberga and Jay Rose Hill with special guests as well as instant reaction videos make sure to be subscribed here to the Leafs Nation YouTube channel turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything and drop a like [Music]
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