📅 Published on: 2024-12-04 17:34:38
⏱ Duration: 00:21:24 (1284 seconds)
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📝 Video Description:
The Sleepers preview the Purdue vs. Penn State game!
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
this video is brought to you by diers Pro the ultimate research platform for serious college basketball fans and betters like myself and for this week only take advantage of their Cyber Monday sale use code PR Monday at checkout to unlock three months of pro for the price of one with diers Pro you get all the tools Best Bets and player prop projections that you need to stay ahead of this week’s biggest college basketball games like Duke versus Auburn on Wednesday night and Gonzaga versus Kentucky on Saturday don’t miss this deal for sleepers viewers click the link in the video description below and use code Pro Monday at checkout to bring your college basketball experience to the next level with dimer Pro interesting test for the Purdue boiler makers here on the road Happy Valley against a Penn State team that is not going to impress anybody by name or logo or just profile but if you have watched Penn State this season like I have a little bit I think you would be impressed with the way they play basketball I think this is a much better team than anybody realizes kenpom realizes it that’s why kenpom expects that this is going to be a very close game kenpom has Purdue favor by just one point on the road at Penn State on Thursday night Braden Smith Ace Baldwin that’s a fun matchup and I think that’s where we should start Ace Baldwin year two transfers we always talk about it for my money cart he may be the best defensive guard in college basketball he also is on a string of an insane passing performance Run 10 assist last game against buff Buffalo 11 assists against Clemson seven assists against forom 11 assists against perue Fort Wayne 10 assists against Virginia Tech uh his assist rate is 17th nationally 38 a half% assist rate and in that span he got you 20 points two of those games 20 against Clemson 25 against Purdue Fort Wayne Ace Baldwin’s a true Superstar I don’t think I’m uh I’m wrong in saying that at this point and there’s an argument he’s been the better point guard of the two in this game game over the course of this season I don’t like saying that cuz I still believe bradden’s way better than Ace Baldwin but just how they’ve played a month into the season there is an argument that Ace Baldwin’s been the best point guard in the Big 10 which is probably why I’m going to love Purdue in this game yeah because uh br’s gonna take if there’s one player that’s gonna take something personally it’s gonna be the fact that uh I’m gonna take that people think ace ball was better than me uh that’s definitely a factor in this game but no I I’ve been impressed with this Penn State team as I watched them this season and that’s credit to you because you told me to pay more attention to them uh Ace Balwin has been incredible this year like he has been incredible and the profile of who he is as a player I think could really cause Purdue issues because this team right now consistently I think you can depend on three guys right ace Balwin is the type of Defender that would be able to make Braden’s life hell like he if there is someone that can do it Ace Baldwin has the ability to do that because of how tenacious and good on defense he is as as an on ball Defender and then you look at what Penn State has down low quietly no one’s been talking about this guy maybe because I can’t pronounce his name with all due respect say it do Yanik has been a dog this year that dude name say the name Yanik Conan Neer house yanic Cen neuser he’s a he’s a dog lowkey like seven foot extremely athletic he’s averaging 14 and seven this year but like he’s he’s all over the place like where did they get him from was he a transfer he’s from Switzerland C he Yanik Conan Neer Houser is uh what Purdue fans wanted wilberg to be yanic con and Neer house is going to be it’s Neer Hower like Joey Hower Neer Houser I like call him Neer house he’s a Hower he’s a he’s a yanic Oden Neer Houser not Yanik Conan Jamal Neer Houser wow uh no he’s gonna be he’s going to be really really good at North Carolina next season too if they play their cards right um this this dude is one of the more underrated bigs in this conference he’s extremely athletic he’s a seven-footer um and that’s something that could maybe get Purdue trouble tkr is gonna play the five yeah first uh first true tkr Big 10 test against seven foot guys this year now tkr has passed with flying colors in recent games I think tkr has been Sensational uh he was great against um Alabama’s front Court like tkr I don’t have any concerns about tkr against anybody at this point but true seven-footer right that we have to say that every time like we’re contractually obligated to just say tkr is giving up like four inches of height against his matchup in this game um so Penn State I think they’ve overachieved they’ve been really good you go through their results they’ve blown out a bunch of bad teams like they beat Virginia Tech by 22 that’s more than Michigan beat Virginia Tech by um they have a bunch of 30-point wins against horrible cupcakes I think all their wins come by no they had Purdue Fort Wayne they beat by 13 but they scored 112 points in that game this offense is legit 33rd best offense in the country they play super fast tempo is going to be an interesting thing for this game but they shoot well they shoot 38% from three 60% from two like there’s not to knock offensively for Penn State at all when you have Ace Baldwin playing the way he is um three different games over a 100 points this year they’ve been 85 points or more in seven of their eight games like you got to score points to to hang with Penn State it’s kind of crazy the one game that they didn’t play well in my opinion is the one game they lost a neutral sight game against Clemson Clemson beat him 75 to 68 now Clemson’s a pretty good team they just beat Kentucky at home so Penn State like being in a competitive game with Clemson I think is a good sign that Penn State’s pretty good um but they didn’t look the same in that game as they have the rest of the season so how much of Penn State to you is just like they can beat up bad teams but when they play somebody good they’re not the same team um I think it’s somewhere in the middle because obviously you know seeing what clemon was able to do at home like clemon is a good defensive team and they could really make some things happen defensively and I think they were able to do that in that game against Penn State and look Penn State could have Penn State had opportunities to win that game against Clemson um they just kind of got out outdone by shefflin shefflin was incredible in that game Wiggins was really good which maybe has you feeling good about what tkr can do against uh Penn State’s front court but you know I I come into the I come into this matchup and it feels weird to even say out loud that you you know Purdue should be scared not scared but like they should really respect this matchup with Penn State yeah because I think I think they match up like and I and I know they do I know I’m saying it like like they not saying that they aren’t but um you know in that Clemson game they turn the ball over 17 times yeah so like it’s it’s tough to win a game if you’re gonna turn over at that high of a clip I don’t think Purdue is overlooking anybody um and I do want to make it clear since I kind of floated this uh Braden Smith’s the best guard in this game not close and Braden Smith I think is gonna like Ace Baldwin will have bradden’s full attention bradden’s GNA be hungry he’s gonna want to come out and make a statement and I believe he will like ace ball went for as good as he is defensively he can kind of make things harder on Braden but you’re not going to shut down Braden Smith and if anything it’s probably just going to be a big Braden Smith assist game would be my guess you are going to need your complimentary guys to step up because if Ace Baldwin wants to really get in Braden’s [ __ ] for 40 minutes um to me it’s a better formula if he’s kicking to open Shooters than it is Braden hunting those mid-range twos so we’ll kind of see where it goes one thing schedule spot wise um this happens a lot teams coming off like a an mte win maybe a little let down post Thanksgiving game especially if it’s not a home game so spot this scares me a little bit not going to lie to you C because Penn State’s a good team at home off Purdue team that survived against Old Miss is a little dicey to me can I can I push back why I shouldn’t scare you please there’s going to be 27 people there this is true unless they’re are they playing in the the wreck gym or are they playing in the gy are they playing in the auxilary gy that’s key we need to find that out uh can I so I have a thing with Purdue that I want to raise to you that uh really shocks me that I don’t I haven’t heard anybody talk about this yet You’re gonna laugh this is the slowest Tempo Purdue team in painter’s tenure this really this is the slowest Tempo team in Matt painter’s tenure at Purdue and oh we were told the opposite would happen like we were which makes sense in theory right it’s like you lose Zach EDI now we’re going to run now we have athletes we’re going small with tkr at Center let’s let’s push the tempo this team it genuinely painter’s been there what 20 years this is his slowest Tempo team ever which is shocking but also when you take a step back doesn’t it kind of make sense yeah talk me through it Zack Edy is a way better athlete than tkr is oh I don’t I disag ah I don’t disagree with that but I don’t think the tempo has to do with like the the swapping Ed for tkr I have a what do you think it has to do with they only have five players and you can’t wear those five players out okay so it’s this a calculated slow it down I think that if Matt painer believed that his bench could give him serious minutes this team would be running way more got you so so you know how like what what’s a who’s a offense you know how PJ’s on the bench you know offensive white board yep every time just this just hey slow yeah I mean also like you look back at it the first three games of the Season you played a faster Tempo there were 73 possessions against Yale and Texas A&M Corpus Christie they have not topped uh they haven’t gone in the 70s once since yeah slow slow I don’t like that though like I don’t you think like if I mean fatigue is a real thing but like if this team just had a bench Andor fatigue could be turned off Braden and Fletcher and tkr would be better in a fast-paced offense right especially if Cam Heidi’s gonna be the four and Colin’s gonna be out there with them right like to me it would make sense for those five to play fast but I don’t can play fast because there’s no bench I don’t know if this is a something that can be sorted as far as lineup wise but I wonder what the possession length is with the new starting lineup yeah that’d be interesting yeah I’m not I’m not deep in my analytical bag to be able to break that down I’m simple matchup paage guy may need to look it up uh but on the tempo Point Penn State plays incredibly fast 28th fastest Tempo in the sport Purdue plays incredibly slow 340th fastest Tempo in the sport who does that favor in this game I actually think it favors Penn State because I think Penn State can play fast without fear of turning the ball over because produce defense defense doesn’t Force turnovers you’re right you are correct and Penn State forces a lot of turnovers 12th most turnovers forc in the country most of that is Ace Baldwin so right and if you play slow enough i’ I I trust them to take care of the basketball what’s the biggest mismatch in this game we we know there’s two great point guards it’s Braden and Baldwin I don’t think the answer is one of those two so what what is the biggest mismatch here uh cam Heidi looking in the mirror just self-control with Cam just I just I think cam Heidi’s spinning the wheel and deciding which player he’s going to be for that game is he going to be uh dton connect or is he going to be Russell bird okay but no I I I do think an area that could be a mismatch and I don’t I if I had to pick one I like Penn State’s wings I think they’re physical and I think they’re really good um there’s a world where Penn State Wings could outplay produce wings uh yeah we haven’t really mentioned any of Penn State’s wings but yeah they got ker they got dilon Kar and dilon are not making shots that’s the issue they’re both shooting 25% from three but dillion’s a pedigree recruit started at Tennessee uh Nick Kar has been pretty good in certain games this year even like you know puff Johnson comes from North Carolina Zack Hicks has had good moments like they they have a lot of different options and big bodies and athletes in between Ace Baldwin and Neer Houser right it’s more so like not even off it’s more so like that physical profile defensively yeah uh okay Penn State somehow wins this game what happened they they play F they play their fast style Purdue tries to match that and it’s going it’s going pretty much back and forth the whole game Purdue runs out of gas at the end okay um but also Penn State plays like five guys too so like right okay a okay no Ace Ballwin just completely cuts off Bron BR has a I don’t think that’s going to happen but but isn’t that the way they win um I don’t think that needs to happen for Penn State to win talk to me let’s get to predictions use dimer pro dimer pro is an analytics model that will tell you exactly what is going to happen in every college basketball game gives you the exact score gives you the player props to bet we use it every single day to inform our our bets that we place at my bookie uh I’m looking right now it appears there’s no line out yet for this game so tune back in tonight and you’ll be able to find the exact arms Pro prediction promo code sleepers gets you 20% off your first month with diers Pro for now let’s use the kpom line as I mentioned Purdue is a onepoint favorite on the road at Penn State do you mind if I go first Cart please I am predicting Penn State will win this game and I don’t mean that as a massive indictment of Purdue in fact I still believe Purdue is going to win the Big 10 I think they’re going to lose this game before winning the Big 10 so don’t nobody freak out at me on this one uh I think this is a really awful matchup for Purdue like matchup wise looking at all of the teams in this conference who can exploit Purdue weaknesses most it’s Penn State and it’s it’s not particularly close and here’s why uh cart they are basically a diet version of Marquette they do all the same things that Marquette does Marquette plays really fast and forces a ton of turnovers Penn State plays really fast and forces a ton of turnovers Marquette has a superstar guard who takes it personal and can go at Braden and they have different bodies they can throw at different backcourt options Penn State has a superstar card who will take it personal and go at Braden and uh they have different Wings athletic bodies they can throw at people I mean the the the profile is so similar between Marquette and Penn State and what they do Marquette is better Penn State can follow the exact formula Marquette did I mean you go back to it uh they forced 15 turnovers in that game Braden had 11 points and he he still ended up with nine assists in two turnovers it was a great game to me that’s like Ace Ballwin is not gonna just take away Braden but if they force other guys to beat you I mean you got nothing in that Purdue game outside of Fletcher and tkr once again like Jakari koven hey didn’t do much and I think that’s probably going to happen in this game Penn State is is absolutely a team that’s going to force turnovers they’re gonna ball pressure they’re going to run like crazy we know Purdue doesn’t want to run like crazy pennate does and I thought over 40 minutes in the Marquette game I mean Purdue hung around but over 40 minutes it wore them down and in the final 10 minutes that was produced worst 10 minutes of that game I mean they they just fell apart late because they they got tired they got gassed and they couldn’t deal with the pressure I think Penn State will do that like I I just think they’re capable of doing that and at home in a let down spot off of feast week where Purdue let’s be honest Purdue was fortunate to beat Old Miss with how Miss was making shots uh I think this is a wakeup call oh [ __ ] statement win for Penn State Purdue regroups and and ends up winning the conference but this is a terrifying matchup give me Penn State to win yeah I think I think I agree with everything you said to be honest with you I think you hit the nail on the head um also with guys like Kar um and Hicks like Hicks I want to say like I want to say Hicks is shooting like 50% from three or something like that he’s been like really good this season so like I think match up wise you hit on a lot of points that I would hit on as well um and this game’s not a Mac either like even if Penn State’s environment is not going to be great it’s still going to be not at the friendly compound of Macky um and like you said the matchups are what the matchups are um could be if I’ll tell you what though Purdue wins this game we’re coming away extremely impressed coming off you know the MCE win like you said uh but it’s it wouldn’t be a bad loss in my opinion I’m looking something up real quick historically here too I I may be on to something give me a second oh boy what do you on to here go back to 2019 so this is uh six seasons let’s look at what Purdue has done in their first Big 10 away game oh six seasons ago in 2019 they lost by 19 at Michigan in 2020 they lost by 14 at Nebraska in 2021 they lost by 15 at Iowa in 2022 they lost by two at the rack at Ruckers in 2023 you and I were in the building for at cart they went to overtime against Nebraska they survived but that was a stinker from a one seed and then last year in 2024 on the road they lost to Northwestern they are one and five in their big 10 Road openers in the last six years and the one win was a survive in overtime against Fred hyberg that’s a trend 0 and one on the road this year against Mark had te the profile is pretty similar to Penn State that’s a trend this may be a legacy performance for me yeah I think I got Penn State this basketball game with all I don’t but it it’s if it’s me against Braden with my legacy on the line I’m getting cooked he’s gonna go for a triple double and hit this there’s a world where that happens good luck Purdue good luck Penn State uh good luck Me I’m Scared this video is brought to you by my bookie the present sponsor of all things sleepers media and our favorite sports book on the planet cart why do you love my bookie because they make it easy to play your way and get paid Greg I’m a simple man at heart and my bookie makes it very very easy for me to place all types of bets on 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