📅 Published on: 2024-12-14 01:30:17

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2024 to 25 MLB free agency trade grades offseason analysis the 2024 to 25 MLB offseason has arrived and we have you covered with grades and Analysis for every major signing and trade this winter whether it’s a ninef figure free agent deal that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade that rocks baseball we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and Beyond follow along as ESPN MLB experts br for dittle and David shonfield evaluate each move this story will continue to be updated so check back in for the freshest analysis from the beginning of the hot stove season through the start of spring training Cubs grade grading trades can be a fraud Enterprise at times because you usually have to rate a deal in black and white at the moment you assess it even more so than free agent signings trades often occur as part of multiple related moves this swap in particular seems to portend other maneuvering for both teams involved for the Cubs the addition of Tucker means that rumors of a looming Cody Bellinger deal are going to Echo that much more loudly it’s not that you can’t wedge Tucker and Bellinger onto the same roster it just seems unlikely that is the Cubs plan when they have Pete Crow Armstrong ready to claim Bellinger Centerfield spot plus there is seya Suzuki who now looks like a full-time DH unless he’s traded as well or instead of Bellinger and Michael Bush and Ian hap the Cubs could make it all work but they surely see Tucker and Bellinger as redundant still the first measure you want to make is between Tucker and Bellinger because acquiring the former and then moving the latter means we’re talking marginal gains if there are gains well there are gains over the last three seasons Tucker Sports a878 Ops and 145 Ops plus to Bellinger 762 and 111 he’s also a year younger and has one less year of Team control all the Cubs can really count on with Tucker is having him for the 2025 season but then again if Bellinger were to stay and deliver a Tucker level season he could also opt out of his deal anyway as would be his option Bellinger has generally rotated between center right in first base with Chicago and is generally Adept at them all Tucker has been exclusively a right fielder and a very good one winning a gold glove and logging a plus 32 DRS over the last four seasons he’s just a better player than Bellinger and more consistent worth between two and three wins in marginal value again this assumes Bellinger is dealt and therefore considering the Cubs return there in tandem with this swap the Cubs are giving up a lot of value to obtain just one for sure season of their new lineup anchor I have docked them for it in the grade you see above but my assumption is that after some ho hum season Stuck in the Middle the Cubs are making a major push for 2025 Landing Tucker AIDs that cause considerably in a similar way to how on sto’s one season for the Yankees was a catalyst in getting them back to the World Series thus I like this move for the Cubs I like it a lot even if Tucker walks after 2025 they have the prospect base to account for that in the meantime they now have a golden opportunity to convince Tucker to sign on for the long term the balance sheet disparity in terms of relative trade values suggests to me they plan to go after Tucker for more than 2025 it’s a risk but sometimes you just have to roll the dice most Cubs fans won’t mourn the departure of Petes who struggled terribly on both sides of the ball after being acquired from the Rays last season that’s not why the Cubs moved him of course as he’s in the second of what will be four seasons of arbitration eligibility that’s a lot of Team control he’s generally been an above average hitter with a Dependable combination of isolated power and walks as his foundation he’s no great shakes with the glove but can play either Corner in field spot Smith was the 14th pick in last June’s draft taken by the Cubs out of Florida State and he’s a legit Prospect Baseball America ranks Smith as Chicago’s sixth best Prospect in their most recent update and he did little during his brief Pro debut to quell enthusiasm quickly climbing all the way to ablea over 32 games he hit 313 sl. 396 sl. 696 with 7 homers questions about his glove work at third base could mean an eventual shift down the defensive Spectrum however of note one of the Cub’s top prospects Matt Shaw is a third baseman and he might be ready to assume the Reign at the position as soon as spring training even if that timeline is aggressive the Cubs can expect him sooner than later yes Tucker is hitting his walk here and is going to get paid the Cubs are now on the clock to become the team that pays him he’s a Star level hitter Defender and base runner right in the midst of his prime a four to six War stalwart who could be a Cornerstone player for Seasons to come now is a good time to make him feel wanted the Cubs do have some highly rated Corner Outfield prospects Kevin alcantra Owen Casey at all give me Tucker and if I can extend him there’s a lot I can still do with those young bats in the meantime as we wait to see if more deals follow this move adds a couple of wins to the Cubs Baseline on the same day division rival Milwaukee traded star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees Chicago held a narrow lead in my nent 2025 forecast for the NL Central and that lead has now expanded with a couple more moves the Cubs should enter next season as the favorite in a division that remains close from top to bottom that’s what happens when you add MVP caliber producers Astros great C+ you don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to assume that this deal means the end of Alex bregman’s time in Houston Petes looks like his near-term replacement and Smith perhaps following suit down the line yes there’s a possibility that Houston retains bregman and Petes becomes the first baseman the Astros need even if that were to happen though the cost of losing Tucker is just too much to bear for me this is really about 2025 because on an Astros team with a narrowing window of contention they need to be valuing the near term in advance of an eventual reset the minor league system is is in need of a major restocking meanwhile the eroding big league roster is anchored by a Hall of Famer in Jose Altuve who is reaching his mid-30s and a devastating hitter in y Alvarez who has bad knees one by one the greats of the dying Astros Dynasty are departing there is no combination of moves the Astros are likely to make from here that will strengthen their outlook for 2025 in the wake of dual departures by bregman most likely and Tucker are gone I still have Houston as slight favorites in the AL West but their margin for error is gone and their competitors are still adding trade models do sign off on this swap for the Astros because of the combined 10 controllable Seasons Houston is obtaining for a walk year player in Tucker in fact the machine at baseball trade values Flatout rejected it because the Cubs return was too light I get that and can’t refute the math that’s why I give a decent grade to a move I wouldn’t have made why wouldn’t I have made it you can’t really project Championship probability and that’s where I think the Astros have suffered the most because their most likely Championship season in the near future is 2025 and that season is taking a hit here it’s also where the Cubs have gained the most Smith is a long-term solution especially if his third base defense improves and it’ll be interesting to see what West neski does in the Houston pitching program Petes is a serviceable player but a step down from bregman with both the bat and the glove he’s also 5 years younger so it is reasonable to wonder if that Gap will persist much longer in terms of marginal value he’s going to be considerably more cost efficient than bregman and that’s without knowing the latter’s eventual contract that’s really what this comes down to though the Astros have been carrying large payrolls and it could simply be time to become more efficient in the accounting department if so that’s understandable but it’s not a championship formula not in the short term where the focus ought to be right now in Houston do little Yankees grade A after signing Max Fred to an 8-year $218 million contract and losing reliever clay homes to the Mets the Yankees had a relative surplus of starting pitchers and a lack of depth in their late game Bullpen so flipping a solid starter in Cortez for maybe the best closer in the game aligns perfectly with their needs both players are in their final year before free agency and projected to make similar $7.7 million salaries in arbitration so the Yankees threw in a little cash and a prospect to entice the Brewers to swing the trade it wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say Williams is the best closer in the game since his rookie of the year season in 2020 he has a 1.70 erra first working primarily as a setup man to Josh hater and then taking over as closer he missed the first four months of 2024 with a stress fracture in his back but was good as ever when he returned at least until the playoffs when the Mets scored four runs off him in the ninth inning of the deciding game of the Wild Card series including the memorable Pete Alonso home run Williams go to pitch is his air bender an almost unhitable change up with screw Ball likee action batters have hit just 135 off at in Williams career although Alonso did hit a change up for his series winning home run the Yankees did have Luke Weaver as they’re closer in the postseason and he’s coming off an outstanding First full season as a reliever moving Weaver back back into the setup role he was in most of the regular season as fine since he showed as a former starter he’s more than capable of handling longer stints out of the pen a weaver Williams combo certainly projects as one of the top late game Duos in the majors although the Yankees probably still need another depth piece or two especially from the left side Brewers grade B+ with Williams heading toward free agency the Brewers learned their lesson from Trading hater in midseason in 2022 a move that backfired when the Brewers went from first place at the time of the trade to missing the Playoffs trading Williams now relieves the pressure of perhaps trading him during the season when the Brewers might once again be in the playoff race two things here first few organizations are better at building bullpens and finding relievers than the Brewers that’s what they’re banking on here since 2018 when they made the playoffs to kick off a run of six postseason appearances over the past seven seasons the Brewers are solid seventh in the majors in bullpen ER and first in bullpen when probability added now they’ll have to do it without hater or Williams Trevor medel who picked up 21 saves in Williams absence last season is next in line and he’s fine 2.72 ER 50 strikeouts and 46 and 13d innings pitched 0.555 Ops allowed second while it’s a mild surprise the Brewers traded for Cortez rather than a younger player with more years of team control I like that it means they’re hardly Desiring a step back in 2024 even after losing Willie Adams and trading Williams they had a hole in the rotation after non- tendering Colin Ray who made 27 starts with a 4.29 ER ctez might be viewed as a minor upgrade 2.6 war in 2024 versus 1.2 for Ray although he did miss the last couple of weeks and the first two rounds of the playoffs with a flexor strain only to return in the World Series and serve up that game losing Grand Slam to Freddy Freeman Cortez also moves away from Yankee Stadium where he had a 3.11 ER compared to 4.46 on the road Durban isn’t regarded as a top prospect but he’s interesting enough that the Yankees did add him to their 40-man roster he hit 287 sl. 396 sl. 471 at AAA with more walks in strikeouts and 29 steals in 32 attempts he played all three infield position so he fits into that picture alongside Bryce turang and Joey Ortiz if I’m the Brewers I’d leave turang at second base where he just won the Platinum glove as the best overall defender in the National League Play Ortiz a shortstop and give Durban the opportunity to fit into the third base mix he’s not going to provide much power but will grind at bats and steal some bases Shan field sport time your sports channel here you will find the latest news results and behind the scenes information from the World of Sports redart each subscription makes our hearts beat faster come and be part of this story press subscribe and let’s grow together your presence is very important to us folded hands

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