📅 Published on: 2024-11-30 14:45:04
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how’s it going everyone welcome back to the channel today we’re talking about Ace Bailey who’s one of the most fascinating prospects in this class to me largely for his polarization I think there are people who are way too high on him parentheses the people that have him over Cooper and even Harper at this point to be honest and there are people who I think are going to be too low on him like who really don’t value a skill set maybe more like statistical based people and this is kind of how I felt about Jabari Smith and about Brandon Miller I ended up on the lower side for both and I’ll end up on the lower side for Ace probably but I do think these kind of like tall shot making wings without a ton of other stuff are very polarizing but we’re going to try to make sense of Ace’s early season stuff so like subscribe comment all that good stuff we’re on our way to 10K I love you all and the most impressive thing that Ace does to me is his off ball shooting he had this clutch pin in three to basically help try to win this game against Kennesaw State really good job twisting in midair and his fluidity is so ridiculous definitely one of his best traits and Ace can hit shots from well beyond the line right going to catch the ball jab step I do wish sometimes he was even more confident ripping off the catch which we’ll discuss throughout this video but the shot making flashes are great and again we see the ability to set his feet quickly off of movement he likes this little one two plants with the left right foot down up and just look how deep range he’s firing from and when Ace is firing confidently like this he is a very dangerous player that’s not always the case with him but when he is firing confidently he’s really really deadly and Ace has pretty good spacing feel playing off of the ball notices that this help Defender is going to Zone in on the ball so Ace is just going to slip back towards the the corner I realize I don’t have my my drawing app open so I will open that open that right now in case I need it I think I might and I feel like most people know Ace for his shot making and there’s certainly some of that off the dribble like oh my goodness beautiful step back right there there just aren’t a lot of 69 61 18 year olds or 19 year olds who can do this kind of stuff right like it’s just a very rare skill set which makes sense why people kind of adore it so much but we know he can hit tough shots right we know he can step back and look how high he gets and that release is unbelievable in terms of how quick he gets off the floor and how he can like get to his spots and Ace’s handle is definitely not perfect so we’ll get into this but Ace is really good getting to his spot I like him rejecting the screen this Defender is playing him really hard to the sideline so Ace is just going to take that open space almost loses his handle but he doesn’t and he ends up canning that mid-range but my thoughts about this right are we know that Ace can shoot mid-range jumpers and can hit them at a high clip he’s shooting a ridiculous amount of them right now but my my my question is also then what are some ways other than just feeding him isolations and pick and rolls that we can get Ace into his spots which I think is really important because I view Ace as more of an off ball guy long term than like a true creator and I really like leveraging his screen threat as a shooter into these drives and and jumpers where defenses know that Ace will pull off of movement like Ace we’ll shoot this so this is a great example of him being comfortable attacking immediately off the catch like I said isn’t always doing this he does hesitate sometimes but this is a great job just pivoting turning around and that’s a really tough nice shot right there and again we see Ace with a little push shot floater but again this is like a I think this is another Baseline out of out of bounds play where we have one screen two screen Ace hopefully going to get free from this Defender chasing around and that’s exactly what happens and of course because he’s a shooting threat he’s going to attack and honestly he probably could have shot this cuz Stevenson really got caught on the screen but anyways decisive decisive move there Ace didn’t kind of dilly dally at all but he definitely some does sometimes take his time and again it works when he can hit the shots like that I really like Ace as a ghost screener for Harper getting your best two players involved in actions together is so good at any level and Harper is unbelievable but Ace go and I really do wish he set and shot this ball like I I know it’s not maybe the craziest high percentage shot but it’s more high percentage than the shots he’s able to create a lot of the time and that’s a really good mid-range jumper right there Ace is a very eastwest driver I want you to notice his first step like where his first step go he starts here his next step is here his next step is here right like he is going let me back up a little bit when Ace drives he is moving towards the sideline to shoot not towards the basket to draw fouls and drive I think part of that is because of his burst limitations and because of issues we’ll get into but that’s definitely something I’m I’m looking at for sure we see another ghost situation where I wish Ace just shot the three right there and this time we can see what happens when he isn’t able to create and again this kind of east west driving style where you can see like which direction his first step is pointed in he’s going this way and the basket is this way right and obviously like it’s okay to some degree to drive the get to your spots players do that all the time but for a player like Ace I worry a lot that he isn’t able to drive downhill the way that he kind of needs to and the way that you’d hope him to to draft him really high and again we kind of don’t even see he hasn’t even really tried a Blow by Defenders like his his driving paths are very rounded even if he is getting down the hill it’s going to be like this looping and that gives the health Defenders more time to squeeze in but if he just went straight at the bucket and again loses his handle we can see his handle isn’t particularly good which isn’t a huge huge concern to me cuz that can improve but and he is really flexible but you can see all the concerns with Ace’s driving and self-creation on display on a play like this Ace like I said I do really like the flexibility this Shin angle really impressive Bailey we we talked about shin angles before especially in the Fon video but helps him generate power and explosion and he gets really low to the ground as well much lower than the defender so hopefully he can generate leverage but Ace just is isn’t like that explosive to me like his first step do not doesn’t create him as much space can’t power through and tries to spin back but loses the ball and then just can’t create any space against the defender and Ace really does struggle to get downhill and to actually score in the paint I put together some numbers in terms of Rim frequency this is an old sheet I’m reusing from last year but these are some some you know Wing is players and Ace Bailey in the halfcourt shoots 6.5% of his shots at The Rim that’s very low these stats are via Synergy and you can just see all the guys in this list flag up at 35 you know couple other high level guys canle around 34 but even the other Shooters in this in this range right mcne and and more significantly Riley and Catchings do not get to the rim very often and Ace is a decent finisher when he gets to the rim might dunks dunking five times 8 for 11 but you can see like the just the Shot differences 8 for 11 on these close twos where it’s only 11 attempts and there’s 40 attempts from Far two which I think it’s just like outside five or 10 feet or I don’t know they they categorize it and then he’s shooting a decent amount of Threes but honestly not as many as I want given some of the flashes that we’ve seen of of the kind of stuff that we know Ace can do as a shooter and as a driver he’s just very raw in ter terms of his feel and decision making has an incredible opportunity here his his Defender got screened off completely and Ace has all of the space it’s a one versus one him versus the dropping big and you know you’d hope Ace can pull up from three here pull up from mid-range but he doesn’t make a decision he just kind of barges towards the rim and tries to shoot another tough Fade Away over a Defender so it’s that level of decision-making stuff and Ace does get credited for an assist on this play but that’s a bit lucky and you can again see him just losing his handle and his balance I think his lower body especially needs a lot of work um gets bumped off of his spot really easily the just just the core strength in general is not exactly ideal he’s at his best in early offense as a driver where Ace doesn’t really have to play against set defenses and worry about helpers and can use more of his open open court speed and fluidity cuz he is such a fluid driver even if he’s not very strong or powerful or explosive which I I do worry about to be clear and those that’s also reflected in the numbers and Ace is a really interesting case right the free throw rate is pretty poor 25% of his shots are free throws or you know just compared to his overall field goal attempts and then the assisted turnover ratio which I’ve talked plenty about on this channel of how important of an indicator that is and if we look at the the players drafted since 2008 I believe with an assisted turnover ratio below one and a free throw rate below 30 all of the successes here are Shooters when we look at buddy hee Harrison Barnes Jamal Murray uh fron Vagner so there are successes on this list no doubt and but a lot of these guys like the three-point volume right Harrison Barn is getting up 10 a game buddy obviously incredibly large amount Jamal Murray getting 12 up a game fron Vagner getting nine up a game like doesn’t really compare to the seven a game that J Murphy got up 12 right point point being um and you know there’s some more guys down here but point being like all of the guys who work out are Shooters but this is like way above Aces so if we cut the the filters down to a 0.5 assist to turnover ratio and like a 25 free throw rate to match more what Ace does it’s yeah not not amazing right four guys who were drafted but probably not actual NBA guy so the this the statistical benchmarks that Ace is going to have to hit as an offensive player definitely need to go up like and you can see these problems on tape right he very rarely passes I think he has like three assists in the six or five or six games he’s played um doesn’t get to the free throw line and that’s just going to really make it more difficult for him to be efficient but I want to talk about his defense which has been really honestly encouraging to me two two two steel and block rate both really nice indicators in Ace while I don’t think his athletic tools are the most suited for offensive success the fluidity and the movement and the coordination are really suited for its defensive success and oh my goodness just wanted to start with his nasty chase down Ace has shown the ability to secondary Rim protect a little bit and even though he’s not the most explosive guy in the world like I said he’s very much a load leaper and what I mean by this is like Ace really has to load up he has to swing his arms he has to kind of get almost goal there it looks like he was pretty close to goal tending but anyways good job recognizing that Sears beats his Defender to the rim so Ace is going to try to beat him to the spot ends up recovering and using his length to block that shot so there have been good flashes but most of what I’ve been excited about is his activity as like an off ball Defender as a helper Ace has done a good job like digging on drives and being opportunistic and getting Steals and I think his fluidity lends to some potential really intriguing upside as a screen nav Defender look how low he gets once again he can squeeze in between the the screener and the ball handler get his hands in there and knock that ball away and gets on the floor like just love that effort from him I I was definitely unsure about Ace on defense as a high school Prospect but he’s really impressed me on that end of the floor where great job jumping this passing Lane I think he has a huge poster on this play but I accidentally cut it off for whatever reason and Ace has even shown the ability to play a little drop defense this is maybe the most impressive play he’s made so far this season like playing true drop right here backpedaling to take away this over top pass to Grant Nelson and he does a great job exploding from a back pedal using his length like that is really good stuff from Mr Ace Bailey and the point of attack defense is definitely not as strong like he’s just not sturdy enough really and some of the the explosion stuff like he he just isn’t a good recovery Defender when he gets spun around like this and players are able to go kind of threw him pretty easily bump him off of his spot and that’s not like a huge concern or anything to me because he is an 18yearold and most of these guys are weak but AC’s like lapsy us on defense it’s not as frequent as it was in high school and as I thought it would be necessarily but there is some of that um this play again got cut off too short my bad but Ace is very slow reacting to the corner pass on the inbound closes out a little late ends up fouling right there and especially in screening actions you can see Ace’s processor is just a little bit slow as he loves to ball watch here as Harper immediately points out right I’ve got him he’s like I’ve got the ball go get make what whoa I didn’t mean to do that I’ve got the ball Ace stick to the screener who’s definitely going to ghost out and probably get a little screen right here that’s exactly what happened except it’s a cut but Ace is pretty late recovering to that and gives up an open three and that exact same thing is going to happen here where Mark Sears pops into a wide open three I know he’s not been playing great this season but still and on a play like this right there’s a little brush again Ace needs to recognize that 25 has this guy the big is recovered back to the big and he’s going to have to be responsible for Sears or else durak is going to have to cover 2v one and that’s just not something that durk’s able to do especially with Nelson slipping so kind of has to play The Middle but again acees just reacts really late I do think there’s some concern I have for his defensive ceiling with some of like the reaction time and Awareness stuff but like I said I think overall it’s been pretty good and he’s definitely shown the ability to be a nuisance on the ball with his length and some of his fluidity against like less explosive guys where Ace can just bother with his length and his effort and his intensity ends up getting the steal on his possession so despite all of like the the offensive concerns I laid out with Ace I honestly find myself maybe even a little higher than I was coming into the season because of the the because of the defensive play which I think as an off ball playmaker has quite a bit of potential if he can refine The Freshman mistakes that a lot of freshman refine and offensively I I see his projection as more of like a third star you know at a ceiling secondary score just because I don’t think he has the the advantage creation upside with the handling limitations and the first step and the strength there’s a lot of ways to go for him as a Creator and I think he’s so talented as an off ball shot maker like need to see the three-point volume go up absolutely from where it’s at now but the flashes are so enticing and especially with the way he can like attack Closeouts and play off of his shooting gravity I do think there’s some like jumbo movement shooter potential with him with some secondary playmaking like he very rarely passes but hopefully he can maybe improve some of that stuff and I don’t think that’s like a superstar upside package but that plus legit def positive defense is is like a really good player and I think Ace is a really good Prospect I just think this class is ridiculously strong and I don’t have Ace in my top five not because I don’t not because I think he’s bad or anything just because I think there’s other prospects with more intriguing ceilings you know but overall I think Ace is really interesting and I’m glad we finally got some games against against highle of competition Bama obviously a great team but let me know what you think of Ace let me know what you thought of the video and I’ll catch you next time
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