📅 Published on: 2024-12-07 15:00:27
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
the Atlanta Falcons are six- six on the year after a 17 to13 loss to the Chargers in week 13 which was their third straight loss losing three straight games for any NFL team is obviously frustrating but this was an entirely preventable loss coming off of their buy and it wasn’t a game where Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions including a pick six and including another what are you thinking interception in the Red Zone in the fourth quarter they have the same record as the division rival Buccaneers but Atlanta is first in the division because they swept the Buccaneers earlier this year and there is still a possibility the Falcons win the NFC South in 2024 and host a playoff game but even if they do their future concerns me this franchise went out and signed veteran quarterback Kur cousins to a 4-year $18 million contract this past off season and also selected Washington quarterback Michael Pennock with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft about 6 weeks later but through 12 games kir cousins actually leads the NFL in receptions with 13 on the year and is only one away from his career high of 14 which he set back in 2022 and in today’s video we’re going to break down why the Falcons are in a difficult situation and why their future at this point in time concerns me in a big way and there is a lot to dive into in today’s video and without further Ado let’s begin and we are starting today’s video by addressing a couple of things with the Falcons and why they are in a very difficult situation obviously Kurt Cousins plays A Part within this but it’s not exclusively on Kirk and he’s not the only problem the Falcons went 7- 10 in 2023 and finished 26 than points and there were a couple of games last year that if they have even average Quarterback play they win and I’m referring to the commanders game in which they lost by one score and in a game where Desmond Ritter threw three interceptions including a very ugly Red Zone interception in the fourth quarter the Cardinals game in which Taylor heiki and Desmond Ritter combined were 12 of 21 for 94 yards and the Panthers game in which they lost 9 to7 for what was the second and final Panthers win of the Season that was the difference between being a 7- 10 football team and a 10 and seven football team yes you can do this with every team and talk about a couple of plays here and a couple of plays there and I acknowledge that but it was more pronounced with the Falcons and the point is this wasn’t a bad football team entering 2024 they of course had flaws but they weren’t a bad team and when you combine that with their owner getting up there and age and wanting to see his team Hoist the Lombardi trophy just once well it shouldn’t be a surprise Atlanta was all in on a quarterback this offseason but the Falcons defense isn’t good and I don’t think it’s fair to simplify it to well Raheem Morris is a defensive-minded coach therefore the defense should be better because that is an extreme oversimplification Atlanta is 22 in points allowed and despite being six and six they have 34 more points allowed than they’ve scored and in particular they’ve been outscored 75 to 36 over their last three games and obviously the 38-6 Broncos loss is doing a lot of the heavy lifting there but Atlanta’s defense isn’t very good and that’s been a problem for not just a year or two but for several years now the last time this team had a player have double digit sacks was all the way back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15 A2 and unfortunately we know how that season ended so when you sit back and think about how far the Falcons can actually go this year with what is a clearly limited team I think most people would agree that they are at maximum a divisional round exit and the Assumption in that scenario would be a wild card win and then losing to either Philly or Detroit in the divisional round of the playoffs I know they beat the Eagles all the way back in week two but I think the Eagles would beat them in the playoffs if these teams played again and I think mostly everyone would agree and to be honest even getting to the divisional round of the playoffs would be a huge stretch at the moment because they would have to presumably beat either Green Bay or Minnesota in the wild guard round of the playoff and I don’t think that would happen but for the sake of this video we will say they have a maximum of a divisional round exit even though I don’t think they’ll actually get there just best case scenario and all of this plays in by the Falcons are in a difficult situation moving forward because even if they win a playoff game this year with Kurt Cousins as their starting quarterback which by the way it’s not a given that they’re even going to get to the playoffs but even if they do win a game does it matter does anyone think this is a team setup for future success based on what we’ve SE seen in 2024 because I don’t and again it’s not just a Kurt Cousins problem I know the obvious answer is to turn to Michael pennx and while I do like penx a lot I don’t think it’s that simple that he’s going to turn everything around and here’s why right now the Falcons have the 28th most cap space in the NFL in 2025 and they are stuck with Kirk Cousins next year whether they like it or not Kirk has a cap hit of $40 million and sure they can get out of the kurk contract after the 2025 season and I do believe that was always the plan was to have him for 2 years but the concept here is Kirk Cousins will be a falcon in 2025 and that is naturally going to limit what they can do in free agency and these numbers are of course from overthecap.com so in order to create any significant cap space they’re going to have to release a couple of veterans who have a hefty price tag right now Atlanta has 10 players scheduled to make over $14 million next year and five of those players are slated to make over $20 million in 2020 and the five who are making 20 million or more next year are of course Kirk left tackle Jake Matthews longtime defensive tackle Grady jerett safety Jesse Bates and guard Chris Lindstrom and unfortunately as you probably guessed all of those players contracts are cutable with the exception of Kurt Cousins now we know the Falcons aren’t going to cut Jesse Bates obviously or even Jake Matthews but I do think we are looking at a reality where Grady Jared is a cap casualty because the team would save over 16 Million by cutting Grady Jarett and remember the Falcons only have about 8 million in cap space for 2025 at the moment so they would need to probably cut somebody else like a David anamana to free up an additional $10 million in turn this would be taking players away from a defense that’s again not good and hoping that 2024 second round pick ruk aoao steps up in 2025 and can be the player Grady Jared is now which is not fair to Rook the absolute best case for Atlanta and I think this is what general manager Terry fno has to be internally hoping for is somebody to miss out on a quarterback in the draft and be willing to take on Kirt Cousins contract for the 2025 season and Beyond because the Falcons are in a rookie quarterback contract window at the moment and with how their roster is currently set up financially speaking they’re not going to be able to maximize the rookie contract window with Michael penx not even close but why I also think the Falcons are in a difficult situation moving forward is because of their head coach and offensive coordinator situation I like Zach Robinson the Falcons current offensive coordinator and I really liked when rahee brought him over from the Rams but I think it is worth noting that if the team shows promise or more specifically if Zach Robinson shows promise that he could be poached rather quickly for another team’s head coaching job and their Young quarterback in Michael penx would basically have to learn another new offense within a couple of gear Span in theory that would be a good problem to have because that would mean Michael penx had a good year and play played like a franchise quarterback but admittedly I’m not the biggest fan of a defensive-minded head coach being the head coach of a team with an upand cominging quarterback or more specifically a rookie quarterback I know Jaden Daniels has had a great rookie year and I’m not taking anything away from that but I think situations like that are the outlier rather than the standard the bear situation for example could be a lot better than what it is and I know they just fired Matt Eber flu but unless the defense seriously improves over the next two years Atlanta’s defense that is which is already going to be tough with limited assets I think we could be looking at a rookie window contract with the quarterback that the Falcons mismanaged from the start whether it be due to a big free agent signing or bringing in a new coach in the early parts of Michael pennock’s career I don’t think there is a lot of room for error in a situation that can rather easily be thrown sideways and I would personally argue that before the 2025 Falcon season starts it has already been thrown sideways in a couple of ways the first of course is Kirt cousins contract we discussed earlier in the video that he is uncuttable this offseason and he won’t be he’s due $40 million next year and all of that is guaranteed and again it was always going to be a 2-year contract and you may look at Kirk’s numbers in 2024 and given that he is currently sixth in passing yards and 10th in passing touchdowns which is obviously an upgrade over what the Falcons had in 2023 and when you also look at the fact that Kirk has thrown 17 touchdowns in 12 games which is the same amount that Falcons quarterbacks had in all of 2023 that yes they did in fact upgrade and they should have that’s what they paid for but when you break it down a little more Kirk has thrown eight passing touchdowns against the Bucks in two games in 2024 and when you look at the other 10 games Kirk has thrown nine passing touchdowns to 12 interceptions and the context there is key because Kirt cousins has not been the above average good player in really any other game except the two against bucks this year and he’s been a disappointing player in a lot more games than you would hope for and again he is due $40 million in 2025 so when you sit back and look at the Falcon situation from a much broader perspective and realize they are 0 and3 in their last three games and within those three games kir cousins has zero total passing touchdowns to six interceptions along with a pass rating of just 59 in those games truly how much different is the Falcons current situation than what the Giants just went through with Daniel Jones now Kirk is obviously a lot better than what Daniel Jones was in 2024 and there was never a point in 2024 where Daniel Jones with sixth in passing yards and 10th in passing touchdowns not even close but when you look at the Falcons 2025 situation you realize that Kirk is going to be on the roster no matter what at 38 years old and he’s going to account for $40 million of the cap space again unless somebody opts to trade and take on the entire contract which I don’t think that’s going to happen and I would put the percentage chance of that happening of less than 5% and let’s just go ahead and play out a scenario for the 2025 Falcons and assume everything goes was perfect for them this off season they cut a couple of veterans they have a lot more cap space they hit well on their free agents they’re 2024 class which has disappointed for a couple of reasons of course Michael penx was never going to contribute as a rookie ruko was a player I thought was overdrafted and I much prefer the commander defensive tackle Johnny Newton over rook and unfortunately their third round pick brilin tce toes ACL and Camp so when you have two of your top three picks not play all that much one due to a quarterback over him and another due to injury naturally your draft class is not going to be all that impactful so in 2025 let’s say all three of those players play well their 2025 draft kills it as well and the Falcons have a good season with Michael Pennock as their starting quarterback rahee Morris is still the head coach Zack Robinson assuming they would do well would probably go be the head coach elsewhere now one thing I do want to clarify is if Zach Robinson eventually is a head coach elsewhere I don’t want this to be a negative connotation and I don’t want there to be a belief that oh no our team had a Good Year we won 11 games Michael pennix threw for 4,400 yards and 31 touchdowns oh no our offensive coordinator went somewhere else to coach because we had such a good year I don’t want that to be the belief because that’s not the belief but even if all of those things go right which by the way is a lot easier said than done especially in today’s NFL does it matter are the Falcons going to go into Detroit or going to go into Philly or anywhere else and win when it matters and win the Super Bowl in 2025 I personally don’t think so and I still think their defense has a a lot of flaws and I think that’s going to continue to be a thing not just in 2025 but well beyond 2025 too this defense hasn’t been good for several years and I really think even in the best case scenario which would require Michael penx to play at an MVP level and I’ll just be honest I don’t think he’s going to play on an MVP level in 2025 because that would require a Patrick Mahomes type second season where he sits his entire rookie season or most of his rookie season and then comes in and lights the league on fire which again is a very very rare scenario the Bengals are 4-8 this year despite having MVP level play of quarterback and obviously we know the Bengals defense isn’t good and the Falcons defense also isn’t good so when you factor in all of these things heading into 2025 these are the reasons as to why I really really worry about the Atlanta Falcons future I really think the Falcons went into this offseason and said boom or bust we are getting a quarterback or in this case two no matter what and no matter what the long-term ramifications are and I think some of that pressure was definitely applied from Arthur Blank who is of course 82 years old and let’s just call it what it is we don’t know how many NFL seasons Arthur has left because Arthur is not going to live to 64 years old and double his current age of 82 he obviously doesn’t know how much time he has left and he wants to see his team win a Super Bowl before he buys the farm so the point is is the Falcons kind of went all in this off season without really looking at the long-term plan and I think they’re going to have to pay for that this offseason if they cut Caleb McGary and if they cut Grady Jared that’s going to free up a lot of money but then of course you’re going to to have to pay to replace those guys and it’s not easy to replace those guys just because you freed up a bunch of money and the best way that I think that can summarize the Falcons current situation is if you look at all of the NFL rosters and and basically grade them on a 100% test score like you would in high school or college or whatever and I think the Falcons are somewhere around an 82 or an 83% in terms of NFL teams you know 100% would be of course enough to win the Super Bowl and is an 83% everever going to get you an A+ to be enough to win it all and to bring everybody together especially with a roster that is as flawed as this is with holes at corner with holes at pass rush with what will presumably be a hole or two along the offensive line this offseason that they’re going to have to fill and of course soon enough you’re going to have to pay Drake London and maybe which is a good problem to have of course maybe you’re going to have to pay Bean Robinson who is a very talented running back and at this point seems like he’s scoring a touchdown a week but the point is you’re going to have to pay all of these players and there was never a long-term plan to begin with once they drafted them the Falcons have mismanaged a lot of things and that’s where a lot of my frustration comes from because it was a lot of the belief of okay we’re getting Kurt Cousins coming off of a Tor Achilles he’s going to save everything and we’re going to win 10 games maybe even win a playoff game which could still very well happen although I don’t think it will at this point but after that it kind of reminds me of the Plankton meme from SpongeBob where it’s like what was your plan after this and Plankton says I don’t know I didn’t think I’d get this far and that’s what frustrates me the most with the Atlanta Falcons and where they currently are I wish them the best but I don’t know what their plan is from here and I think that’s what scares me most I have no doubt that they’re always going to have a pretty high floor and I think they’re going to win anywhere from 7 to nine games over the next 2 or 3 years but in terms of 12 or 13 wins in terms of going to an NFC Championship game in terms of going to a Super Bowl obviously a lot can change but I don’t think I would choose the Falcons in any upcoming year unless they make significant changes from where they currently are I hope you enjoyed today’s video and if you did please like And subscribe there only about 42% of people watching are subscribed and helps the channel tremendously until next time please be safe and have a great day love you guys
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