Live Sport

Football, Tennis, Rugby and 30+ other sports

Ball Pool

Top Expert Shares NFL Survivor Pool Winning Strategy Week 16

πŸ“… Published on: 2024-12-18 14:57:57

⏱ Duration: 00:16:12 (972 seconds)

πŸ‘€ Views: 29 | πŸ‘ Likes: 6

πŸ“ Video Description:

With just 3 weeks left, every decision is CRUCIAL! Join us for the most comprehensive Week 16 breakdown:

πŸ“Š Current State of Play

Circa Pool Update: 50 survivors left chasing $14.2M!
Complete analysis of remaining paths
End-game strategy breakdown
🎯 Week 16 Top Plays

Buffalo Bills: Premium holiday spot?
Green Bay Packers: Legitimate favorite or trap?
Complete breakdown of all viable options
πŸ’° Advanced Strategy Focus

Optimal path mapping for final weeks
Hedging opportunities breakdown
How to maximize your equity in the home stretch
πŸ”₯ SPECIAL COVERAGE:

Holiday week considerations
Multiple game-plan scenarios
Late-season trap games to avoid
Detailed hedging strategies
⚑ BONUS:

Complete analysis of remaining schedules
Pool-specific strategy adjustments
End-game theoretical approach
Don’t make your Week 16 pick without watching this comprehensive breakdown! Whether you’re in Circa, fighting for a massive pool victory, or just trying to survive another week, we’ve got the analysis you need.

#NFLSurvivor #NFL #SurvivorPool #NFLPicks #NFLBetting #WeeklyPicks #NFLStrategy #CircaPool #Bills #PackersGet

βœ…βœ… Sharp App: https://sharp.app βœ…βœ…
SURVIVE35 for 35% off

Discord
βœ…βœ… https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq βœ…βœ…

πŸŽ™ Channel: Sharp App: Sports Betting

🌍 Channel Country: United States

πŸ“‚ Tags:

NFL Survivor Pool,NFL Week 16,NFL Picks,NFL Betting,Survivor Pool Strategy,NFL Predictions,NFL Week 16 Picks,Circa Survivor Pool,NFL Betting Tips,Football Betting,Sports Betting,NFL Analysis,NFL Betting Strategy,NFL Expert Picks,NFL Pool Strategy,NFL Survivor Strategy,NFL Week 16 Predictions,NFL Betting Advice,NFL Gambling,NFL Best Bets,Survivor Pool Tips,NFL Handicapping,how to win nfl survivor pool,football survivor pool,betting

πŸ•΅οΈβ€β™‚οΈ Transcript:

you’re getting oh so close to taking down that Survivor pool and all the cash we’ve got the best analysis in the business coming up next on scratching and [Music] surviving all right NFL Week 16 I am stat stational former professional FX Trader on Wall Street turn pro sports better and pro DFS player and of course the co-founder of the sharp app if you haven’t checked out the sharp app yet please do so at sharp. apppp if you use code survive 35 it’s going to get you 35% off a PR membership at the sharp app if you are looking to bet on Sports especially props we have something called the prop demiz you’re going to want to check out the sharp app so give us a look at sharp. apppp would greatly appreciate it also adding to the list of jobs I have I’m now hosting something called the better Thinking podcast we launched the first episode on Monday with Joseph bookd doll who is a sports betting analyst fascinating interview there um I’ve got more dropping this week and I’m actually doing a an interview here once I finish up with this show uh I’ve got a really really uh good one that I’m looking forward to have a professor coming on you guys will uh hear more about it when I start dropping the clips of the show but check it out the podcast on Spotify Apple all major uh podcasting platforms Amazon or if you just subscribe here which I know a lot of you watch every week and don’t subscribe because I see the data if you subscribe here uh that’s going to help and you’ll be able to look for the better Thinking podcast that should show up in your algorithm but by liking these videos and going and liking some of the better podcasting clips and uh the podcast that would help as well to uh get it into your algorithm or you can just subscribe to the better thinking uh playlist here on the sharp app Channel all right enough of the plugs let’s dive into week 16 and talk about what we’ve got going on all right we’re getting to the point I talked about it last week where the spreadsheet not as valuable anymore because we’ve got it all laid out in front of us now we’ve got three weeks we can map out the next three weeks that’s really the time frame I like to map out anyway I don’t like to go too much further than that typically uh just because we just never know what the future may bring you’ve got take a look at Pat Mahomes getting hurt right so things like that will change you you wind up saving on you save a Baltimore and the next thing you know uh Lamar Jackson is hurt changes the entire landscape and what you were looking to do so uh there are opportunities that we’re going to want to save or or times that we’re going to want to save teams it makes sense um but in certain situations we just want to take the optimal and we’re at the point now where we really want in most pools we want to take an optimal path to the finish line now there’s going to be chances in the larger pools you guys will have 50 60 70 80 some of you have hundreds of people left in your pool you in massively sized pools um in those pools perhaps you may want to take a bit of an alternative strategy but I’d be hesitant in doing so especially with some of the games we have coming up next so let’s dive into it and we’ll get more into the strategies and and what we’re looking at as we go but right out the shoot the biggest favorite of the week Buffalo they host New England we’ve seen how good Buffalo’s looked right now of course um you know 87 plus percent win percentage going to be difficult to imagine New England being able to go into Buffalo and winning that game but nothing is absolute as of now we’ve got a 12 and a half% chance that New England does pull off the upset but a lot of you have taken Buffalo already which is why they are only being picked at a 15% um pick rate this week now certainly also adding to that is the fact that you got Green Bay just about as big a favorite as Buffalo is and they host New Orleans now if you had your choice between the two and you had both available to you you’re probably going to want to take Green Bay as a matter of fact I would highly suggest taking Green Bay if those were your two options because there’s a good chance you do not have Philly for next week right so if you have Philly let’s just go through it here if you have Philly for next week and we have to look at next week as well if you have Philly for next week then you could go ahead and take Buffalo and you’re GNA have a pretty good uh leverage on the field now they’re at New England in week 18 and I’ve I’ve warned you guys already especially in the AFC the AFC may be locked up after this weekend there’s a chance I haven’t gone over all the scenarios but there’s a chance that the playoff teams are all locked up there’s a chance that perhaps uh seeds for some of these teams are going to be locked up as well so I think there’s a high probability week 18 we could be seeing a lot of teams resting players and that’s going to change the Dynamics quite a bit so if you’re saving a team for week 18 don’t there’s going to be there’s going to be a chance that you’re going to have a favorite you may have a touchdown favorite that is not even close to a touchdown favorite right now A team that you may not have even imagined taking come week 18 so we’ll see how that all plays out so I’m really going to focus on week 16 17 if I get to week 18 look that’s the opportunity and you’ll have no better opportunity than week 18 to be able to hedge because you have no more future weeks if you have not hedged at up to this point you can in week 18 and you can in week 18 regardless of how many people are left in the pool because you’ve got almost all of the information available to you that you can possibly have at that time there is no more there is no more week so time is a huge Factor when it comes to hedging as is the amount of people left in your pool I.E the equity that you have in your pool and of course the team that you’re playing and the ability that you have to maybe catch a middle um on that team and what I mean by a middle is if you were hedging with Buffalo this week and you took Buffalo that means in the way I like to hedge some people like to do it on the money line I like to take it I like to take New England plus 14 points so I can win with Buffalo advance and then maybe catch a middle if Buffalo wins by let’s say 10 and win that bet as well now the reason it’s more it’s it’s just easier to do in week 18 is because that’s it that’s my final bet I know exactly where I’m going to be financially depending on what scenarios happen in week 16 here if you’ve got 40 people left in your pool and you hedge with New England and and buffalo winds up winning the game by 30 and then you say well I’m going to I I’ll have uh next week I’ve got Tampa Bay let’s say or whatever against Carolina I’ll hedge that game as well and then Tampa Bay winds up winning big you’ve lost two hedge bets and you’re cutting into your profits in week 18 that’s it you’ve got one hedge bet you know exactly how much money you’re going to win or lose at least at a minimum right so you don’t know uh necessarily what other people’s picks are going to do and what your picks are going to do but you know there’s 40 people left at worst let’s say that’s that equates to a $10,000 equity in your pool at worst you’re going to be returning $10,000 so you know what that at worst number is makes it a lot easier to hedge all right so back to this week we got Buffalo huge favorite against New England Green Bay huge favorite against New Orleans of the two you’re going to want to take buffalo in my opinion unless you have no other option for next week and a lot of you have taken Tampa a lot of you have taken Philly if you happen to have Buffalo available to you then I would strongly suggest going the Green Bay Side and that’s why you’re seeing the percentage low not only because a lot of people have taken Buffalo but because even if you have not taken Buffalo you probably have Green Bay available to you I would suggest taking Green Bay even with this High uh pick percentage because it’s going to give me a better option here for week 17 now there’s a good chance you do not have Buffalo so let’s not get too deep into Buffalo Atlanta is a team that a lot of people have not taken either they’re getting 22 a half% of picks and pools they’re hosting the Giants we’ve seen how bad the Giants have looked eight and a half point spread they have a 78% chance to win their game again we don’t know what their scenario is going to be there’s a good likelihood though Atlanta will need to play week 18 High likelihood that that’s going to be the case just to get into the playoffs um so that game against Carolina may actually mean something so we’ll see if you’ve got options and you want kind of hold on to Atlanta if you’ve got options that are similar I can understand that but it’s unlikely because there’s a good chance you’ve taken Cincinnati there’s a good chance you’ve taking Detroit already this may be your only option here this week outside of Green Bay so if I had to choose between Green Bay and Atlanta I think everything is pointing towards Green Bay for me I mean my order here is going to be I’ll take Buffalo if I have them um I’m getting huge amount of Leverage but I’m getting leverage actually with Green Bay as well let me jump over you know the the uh looking at the future weeks obviously hugely important as I mentioned the spreadsheet not nearly as important and let me kind of close these because I did a little um that’s how I add in the money line here so and I take a midpoint if you saw that it’s just basically a midpoint between the two lines is what we get the money line and I get that off of the sharp app and just take the best money line on both sides and we take a midpoint again future value I’ve got it at zero but future value not going to weigh that heavily here obviously the two biggest favorites this week Buffalo and Green Bay show up high but what I want to show you is the threshold column look at this they’ve got almost a 90% chance to win Buffalo the threshold 88% reason being they have a high win probability with a relatively low pick percentage meaning if you have Buffalo it’s very difficult it’s almost impossible now there is a team that’s 88% better but they’re getting picked at an even higher rate so it’s uh it’s going to be basically you’re going to want to take Buffalo here according to the threshold uh but like I said if you had the choice between Buffalo and Green Bay you may want to take Green Bay um with the option in week uh in week 17 because you may need Buffalo next week against the Jets but we’ll talk about your individual paths down in the comments within like minutes of posting this video you guys start posting comments so I do enjoy that uh and going through them all so I love going going over it all with you but you see something very similar here almost 84% threshold here for Green Bay meaning there’s no other team that you could take outside of Buffalo um and vice versa with Buffalo with Green Bay if you’re going to fade these teams if you have that ability to do so right if you don’t have either one of these options of course it’s not really a fade uh you’re just forced to take another team so that is strong because of the percentages now you’re going to want to change this based on your pool now people are going to ask me everyone’s going to have Green Bay you’re going to get I’m going to get a question I’ve got six people left in my pool um you know four of them are going to take Green Bay we’re pretty confident about that well let’s change the number to 67% in this scenario if you’ve got 67% of your pool taking Green Bay and let’s say nobody could take Buffalo so they’re out of the equation well now you can go ahead and fade Green Bay with a team that has a 73% chance are better to win and that would be Atlanta Cincinnati you know i’ start to get a little nervous when I got down to Detroit and Baltimore but Cincinnati and Atlanta Cincinnati you may not have again we talked about Atlanta good chance you do have Atlanta left so in that scenario I’m okay taking Atlanta and making that fade pick if you thought you had 67 70% or so of your pool going to be on Green Bay but you see as of uh as as per Survivor grid 36% are taking Green Bay overall in pools so it’s it’s an odd thing where in the shorter pool in the smaller pool you may actually be more apt to take a risk um than you are necessarily in the larger pool the larger pool I don’t know if you’re going to get the leverage because the larger pool we’re going to see pick spread out much more I don’t know if it’s as advantageous necessarily in the larger tools to really make the um the contrarian play now it can be of course if the there’s massive upsets we’re going to pick up a ton of equity so I’m not going to totally dismiss that that uh that theory but I think we’re at a point where we just want to kind of we’ve got paths here we’ve got a path to look at we’ve got three weeks we can really map out the next three weeks of who we like you know week 18 aside with the fact that obviously we don’t know who may be playing and may not be playing in week 18 but we could at least give ourselves an idea you know if we have Green Bay who do we like in week 17 let’s go over it Philly unlikely that you have Philly left uh some of you did hold Philly for Dallas it’s going to be a big Advantage as most people will not most people will not have Buffalo right Tampa Bay almost everyone has used there was a couple of weeks there a few weeks ago where Tampa was a very popular pick uh Indianapolis perhaps you may have Indianapolis left but now we’re getting down you know we’re four points off we’re projecting a 10 and a half point spread maybe even be higher um in that Dallas game we’ll see but probably 10 10 and a half sounds about right you’ve got the Chargers a lot of you have used um Miami do we trust that and you know now we’re getting to games that we really don’t want to have so um we’ve got some games that are touchdown or better favorites if you can if you can hold Buffalo and take Green Bay that’s why it’s important here um to hold on to Buffalo if you even have that option all of you are going to have different scenario so it’s going to be difficult for me to really cater the video specifically to you and that’s why of course I like you guys to comment down below with your uh specific pool how many people you have left and who you have taken or what you have left to to take but um I prefer when you tell me who you guys have taken because in that scenario what I do is I don’t know if you guys realize this on Survivor grid but if you click on a team it’ll X Out the that team for for you and you’ll be able to get a clearer picture so if I’ve taken Buffalo already um I’ve taken Atlanta taken Cincinnati I’ve taken Baltimore etc etc it gives me an idea in future weeks when I scroll through um exactly who I’m going to take so let’s say I still have Philadelphia left but I’ve taken Indianapolis I’ve taken the Chargers I’ve taken Washington right so this gives me a good idea when we look at at Future weeks of who I can take so that’s um if you didn’t realize Survivor grid did that it does and that will help you out but uh that’s why I like you guys to tell me who you have taken and then I do that on the on the uh Survivor grid and then that helps me visualize what you guys have left and give you guys some advice but we’ve been going strong here uh 50 people left in Circa there was 51 last week only one person knocked out with San Francisco so I know I’ve got at least one of you guys are still alive I’m hoping uh I don’t think that person took San Francisco from what we discussed so I’m hoping my surviv uh my circuit people people are still alive and uh still shooting for that 14.2 million prize I’d love to hear from you guys down below my DraftKings people and all the pools that you guys are in all right let’s uh let’s win this week let’s get to next week remember guys the better Thinking podcast be greatly appreciated if you could just give it a listen uh follow it on whatever platforms you guys uh use for your podcasting or right here on YouTube and then you get to actually watch the video of the podcast and uh see my face so I don’t know if that’s Plus or a minus but either way greatly appreciate you doing that for us and uh until next week I am statal this is scratching and surviving good luck and let’s take it down


πŸ”— Watch on YouTube

πŸš€ Related Hashtags: #Top #Expert #Shares #NFL #Survivor #Pool #Winning #Strategy #Week


Disclaimer: This video is embedded directly from YouTube. All rights to the video and content belong to the original creator, Sharp App: Sports Betting . For more details, please visit the original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvn8GW-fpyE.

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *