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[Music] what’s up everyone welcome into forward progress week 13 bets Edition live here on the for Progress YouTube channel part of the hammer betting Network and presented by FanDuel I’m Rob Piza joined today by Suma Judah no hitman today he’s off traveling for the holidays but we still got you covered as we break down nine NFL games this week quick heads up we’re not covering the Thanksgiving Day games on today’s show instead join us here live tomorrow morning 11:00 a.m. eastern time for a special Thanksgiving break down that’s going to include picks props and parlays for all three games now let’s talk about last week we went two and two on best best best bets excuse me last week a modest split but given how this season has gone that’s basically our Super Bowl right there progress is progress folks who knows at this rate we might just stumble into a heater coming up here this week as always we’re here to analyze the matchups we break down the processes we help you make more informed betting decisions whether you’re riding with us whether you’re fading us or you’re just here for entertainment value if you enjoy the show don’t forget to hit that like button subscribe to the channel and share it with your friends as well all right let’s dive in and see if we can uh build some build off of last week’s twoin two momentum uh good afternoon to everyone in the chat here see a lot of you I thank you for the praise on circles off this week I enjoyed doing that episode as well as always uh your comments we see them throughout the show them in there we’ll talk about them a little bit let’s start with Black Friday we got the Las Vegas Raiders out on the road taking on the Kansas City Chiefs it’s an AFC West matchup seen a little bit of back and forth in this market the early money on Las Vegas since then KC’s been bet out again we’re currently sitting at minus 12 and a half minus 115 at FanDuel minus 13 at most other shops total in the game is 42 and a half start with you here Judah what do you thinking here Raiders and Chiefs yeah leaning towards the the Raiders uh the Chiefs have had a lot of their success uh this season via kind of like a success rate style this has been talked about a lot uh kind of running uh with a with a high success rate setting up a generally third in shorts which Mahomes is obviously significantly better at converting than kind of your your typical quarterback and and that’s the the path they’ve won uh and the Raiders have been uh pretty solid against against against the Run uh but kind of vulnerable against the pass they’ve been one of the biggest pass munal defenses recently uh there’s a lot of talk about kind of like the chiefs with margin I think that’s all true but but where I think kind of the biggest Edge lies here is that this Chiefs pass defense has been atrocious uh since Jaylen Watson went down in the in the Niners game I think that was week seven every opponent uh since has had a EPA of at least uh .15 uh and they fa some pretty bad offense including the uh Vegas team uh more just kind of stuff on the margins uh adid o Connell is going to be starting again uh he he has been uh in the small sample we have uh from last year and this year uh his his data looks a little bit better his pressure to sacer it uh is down from about 19% last year to 10% he’s getting rid of the ball a lot quicker or at least was uh I think he can have some success as everyone has had against the the Chiefs passing offense and uh just do not see this as a spot where the Chiefs can uh cover with with huge margin here uh the Raiders offense has been it’s not great uh but they’re also not uh kind of the Panthers of weeks one and two and I think that’s kind of what the Market’s suggesting here yeah I’m struggling with this one personally because mchu would have been a very different story for the Raiders here because as you mentioned Judah Chiefs uh have kind of become a pass funnel defense teams know that they can’t run on them they basically attack Any Corner that’s not their number one I’m not entirely convinced that AOC can actually do that and also just reading the tea leaves with the Raiders this week seems like grip strength might potentially be an issue he’s coming back off of an injury to his throwing hand I I’m I’m a little bit concerned about that and then on the other side we just got word right before we started the show but jakori and Bennett at Nate Hobbs are not going to play again that’s two of your top three corners for the Raiders and the Chiefs are not this explosive pass offense but they’re very consistent I know that they played a close game against the Panthers last week however they pretty much moved the ball at will in that game there was a few sacks and I got to say Mahomes has taken way more sacks in the last four weeks than I can ever remember him taking that’s kind of an issue here but the Raiders are 26 in uh pressure rate this year they just haven’t had the same season including from Max crossby I have a pretty strong lean here to KC I would say I would have to Target a flat 12 and a half though instead of a 13 that that would kind of get me over the hump in this particular game uh okay moving on to Sunday games there’s no buys this week so we got lots of games to choose from we’re going through all the games that we have opinions on we’re going to start with the Tennessee Titans at the Washington commanders in this game in particular uh again we’ve seen back and forth in the market uh for this one early money this week all Tennessee granted the opener in this game was pretty bad being north of of seven points but even at six Tennessee took some money then we started to see some buyback today Marshon lore at practice today prompted some money to come into the market on the commanders and to come in on the under at FanDuel right now we sit at this minus5 and a half minus 122 or the in between uh six and a half number as well total in the game 44 a half Suma I’m going to go to you here first Titans commanders what are you making of this one yes I’m looking towards the Titans um will lvis since he came back from injury he looks much improved just from the eye test I watched the the Texans game again the other day um he faced the Chargers Vikings and Texans defenses arguably top 10 defenses maybe we can say top eight defenses also pretty good defenses against the one and I thought that Levis looked much improved there are so many beat report uh tweets uh circulating around Twitter oh his completion percentage Yeah it’s touch on interceptions I will say what the what it doesn’t say is that he took 20 sacks in those games and a lot of not not a lot of but there are some sex that are really really bad um I think against the Texans he he took eight sex four of them I will say were sex where the offensive tets got beaten instantly in a heartbeat but there also sacks where he starts from a clean pocket and then he straight up runs into a sack instead of I don’t know being smarter when it comes to to scrambling around maybe um there could have been two more throwaways but he is taking too many sex despite looking much improved when he’s not taking sex I would say this um but now the the commander defense might be the easiest defense the Titans offense with Will Lis will will will faced all season long earlier in the year he had the Bears and jets defense who looked better back then jets under Salah um Green Bay Miami I think Matrix wise all these defenses are better than what the commies are granted Marsh lore might provide them a a huge boost if he is on a on a full snap count but I think that this is the the the spot where um will L should also look much better in the in the Box SC and I don’t expect him to eat eight saxs and if he does not do that I think they have a pretty good chance at moving the ball here um and on the on the other side I don’t want to talk about the cliff kingsbery seasonal downfall um it could be different talking points but I mean there is data that Jaden Daniels when we bucket his season from like first four weeks second four weeks and now weeks 9 until 12 there is a steady decrease in terms of efficiency um EPA per drop back uh success rate Terry mclen is not seeing um too many Targets in in recent weeks uh he’s been getting worse against the blitz so there might be his injury there might be something about Cliff kingsburry not being able to adjust defenses um getting more control about the scheme I don’t know what is but at some point we have to regress more towards um recent data and um what I want to say is Titans offense are more bullish as the season goes on and commanders offense I’m less bullish and more bearish as the weeks go on and um to get a long story short I’m struggling to get to this number and I like the Titans as do here yeah I I’m personally with you on this one I I would need six flat so 6 minus 110 as a buy point right now with with Latimore coming back but you have other injuries to take into account here on the Washington offense uh both of their backs Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler are banged up uh right the right tackle Andrew Wy suffered a concussion last week it looks like there’s a decent chance he might miss this game their Center Tyler bades I think he likely will end up playing even though he was in the medical tent being evaluated for a concussion last week but there’s a lot here that could be a negative for the Commander’s offense and this is an offense that’s been steadily going downhill you you can use like it it doesn’t matter if you want to use The Narrative of of Daniels being hurt or you know the other teams in the league have come come back uh and caught up to them whatever is happening here the offense is just getting worse as the season progresses and we’ve seen this many times in the NFL before where you get an offense that looks great and they start to sputter down the stretches there becomes more tape teams get used to them there’s injuries there’s a lot going on into this with the Titans one of the best ways to beat them would be through the air attacking their corners but Washington hasn’t been doing that pretty much at all lately you just look at teams that are very reluctant to throw on the outside that’s been the commanders recently so I think Tennessee here is valuable at six as well I’m in agreement with Suma on this game uh okay Chargers taking on the Atlanta Falcons is coming up next year this game in particular uh is a bad scheduling spot for the LA Chargers short rest Monday Night Football whereas Atlanta is coming off of the bye we’ve seen back and forth in Market on this particular game as well all the early money in this game was Chargers and the over all the recent money in this game has been towards Falcons and the under at FanDuel right now we’re sitting at Chargers minus one and a half total in the game is is sitting at 47 a half Judah you had thoughts on one of the sides in this game yeah like the Chargers here uh I think that when you first off a ton of injuries on the even despite coming off the buy uh for for the Falcons uh varying degrees of participation and practice obviously it’s it’s early we’ll see on that but they’ve got like 10 to 12 guys uh that are uh injured I think darn Looney is dealing with a hamstring as one um aing it seems like he’s going to play if not I I really like the spot for the Chargers considering the kind of lack of depth that the Falcons have at receiver and how integral he’s kind of been as the the Deep threat in this offense but ultimately what I think this comes down to is uh the Chargers are a completely different team kind of pre-bi and post buy they were extremely run heavy uh like 10% uh run ere expectation Herbert was barely throwing uh and then since the buy they’ve been one of the past heaviest teams and their offense has been great they’re they’re top 10 in in EPA uh and and basically choose any efficiency metric and uh it will kind of reveal that that same story and I think the market has mostly caught up to this uh but not not fully I think there’s kind of still some some juice to squeeze on on the Chargers offensive side and especially so in this matchup Herbert has been dominant when when kept clean uh and the Falcons have had one of the worst pass rushers in the NFL second worst in quick pressure rate bottom five and virtually any pass rush metric you’re you’re going to throw out there uh and that said sets up extremely well for Herbert who who from a clean pocket is top five in EPA uh and and PFF grade whatever you want to use uh and seeing him in that spot I think this is uh where the Chargers can continue to Excel on offense the defense has been good they’ve been a little bit I guess exposed uh considering that the kind of degree to which they were playing well I think was largely driven by uh the weak set of opponents they faced and now against the Ravens and Bengals it’s looked a little bit different but it’s still uh I think an average offense an average defense excuse me uh that that can slow down the Falcons a bit but ultimately what this comes down to is a Chargers offense and and Justin Herbert’s ability to play when kept clean and Atlanta has had zero pass rush all season and that’s kind of the lens through which I’m seeing this one Suma you had some thoughts on this game as well oh we got you muted we got you muted Suma sorry guys um yeah I agree with basically everything that Judah has said this also comes down to um Atlanta’s pass rush against Justin herberts averaging 0.41 EPA per play and a 52 success weight when kept clean the season this is the the perfect matchup for a quarterback who has been absolutely cooking when given the time um and I mean passes to Quenton Johnson should be unconstitutional this week but outside of that I think that um the chars have a really good match up here um with the with the lack of the of of a pass rure that the felic provide and and on the other side the felons offense has regressed a little bit in in recent weeks and I think this is a spot where the charters defense should also um have a little bit more control at the line of scrimmage Denzel Perryman was a major loss against the Ravens not sure whether he can play but I think the the the charow defense should be suited better to defend a traditional running game that the that the Falcons have um the um Pelicans run tons of inside Zone outside Zone and the Charles defense has been averaging a 33% successfully against inside Zone and 37% against outside zone so I think that the felic should not have an an easy time moving the ball here and if you take away or try to take away the the one game I think that this this uh chars Jesse Minter defense will find ways to disrupt KT cousins so overall um I completely agree with with Judah like the charters here but granted I will also monitor the the injury report for the felic because I think there might be some market movement if that injury report becomes cleaner um today I’ve read a tweet saying that uh Morris lists basically almost everyone who’s on who’s on the injury report in some capacity and he will see where everyone is um after practice mik Hugh the Alford Don Mooney Troy Anderson nland Ben um I guess everyone is there in some capacity but we will see how much everyone practice later today yeah I kind of share the same thoughts as you guys except I I just don’t know that this is my entry point right now for exactly what we’ve just been talking about you have the Falcons team coming off the buy previous to the to their by week they played Denver without three of their top four corners another Corner got hurt in game and Denver just shredded that defense it does look like they’re going to get all of those Corners if not the majority them back this week and I think you probably will see some more market movement towards Atlanta but I cannot help but think the same things as Judah and Suma here yes it’s nice that they’re gonna have their Corners back I I mean you can’t you can’t discount the impact of having um you know coverage however if you cannot get to the passer it really doesn’t matter over a long period of time and that’s been the case with the Falcons pass rush all year I don’t see them having much success UC against this Chargers offensive line so not entirely sure what I’m going to be doing with this game I’m not buying it just now but I do think that there’s a scenario where Atlanta might actually get bet uh after some positive injury news and and I would like the Chargers in this spot okay before we get to our next games on the list reminder bet the NFL season on FanDuel America’s number one sports book I’m a huge fan of the product I think it’s the best product in the space honestly great mobile app great website tons of betting options great features great boosts pretty much anything that a sports Better Could want and right now all customers get 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Connecticut MD gambling help.org in Maryland hope is here visit gambling heline ma.org or call 800 32755 for 247 support of Massachusetts 18778 hope NY or text Hope NY in New York um all right before we get into our next game saw this comment I’ll just address it really quickly when you say at the start you’re covering nine games it would help if you told us which one you’re not covering this is actually a very fluid show we do anticipate we’re covering nine games as we go into the stream but we actually input things as uh numbers change in the background as practice reports come in into a shared spreadsheet and we actually adjust the show on the fly so it’s not always going to be nine sometimes things change but starting the show that’s stand and listen we get through them in an hour so um yeah I just not much to add on that front right now all right AFC North Steelers off the buy take it on the Cincinnati Bengals off the buy shouldn’t say Steelers off the buy off a extended rest um interesting matchup here Bengals minus two and a half minus 120 at FanDuel total has come down from 48 to 47 and a half today in this particular game obviously you got a lot of Trends the trends people are out it’s as a dog Steelers is an underdog Suma I’m going to start with you here is it Steelers is an underdog in this game yeah I’m definitely looking towards that I would like to get a three but I kind of like Pittsburgh’s matchup here um Bengals defense has been underwhelming against the one despite playing a a lot of stacked boxes um Pittsburgh runs 42% of inside zone cinna’s defense is a is averaging a 41% success against that’s below average um they on the back end they play 40 54% um single high they lost Dex Hill for the season DJ Turner for the season and that’s basically the matchup that the Steelers want they want to run the ball they cannot run the ball well but if they run the ball they want to get at least not too many negative plays and then they will try to to bomp you off of play action to jorh Pickins Mike Williams I think will will will see um more of a Target share this week so this this really strikes me as a really good matchup for the Steelers on the other side I have ton tons of respect for Joe bur and this offense with with t Higgins back and Jamal Chase but I think the Steelers have a really good defensive line they should get pressure um on them and with a lack of a running game this will come down to can jur consistently distribute the ball against this um Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line he he might he might prove me wrong but overall I’m struggling to see why or where this great of a matchup for the Bengals should come from sneaky liking the the Steelers but I would need to get or CA plus three for the Steelers to get involved I I’m I’m opposite you on this one Suma not I mean it’s really challenging at the current market price like all the two and a halfs are pretty expensive now I I don’t know what this week holds in terms of market movement on this game but you know you’re basically seeing uh Cincinnati in the range of of minus two and a half minus 120 if you have to pay it and I’d be looking for more of a flat price but to me the big thing with the Steelers is that they have this this big gap right now offensively in early down success rates versus late down success rates and you look at the success they’ve had under Russell Wilson all of it has come on third and fourth down basically and we saw against Cleveland well when they’re not having a greatest third down game you start to see them come down to earth a little bit and you look at the matchups that they’ve faced with Russell Wilson the Giants defense I don’t know if you guys have looked at the Giants defensive efficiency numbers but they’ve fallen off a cliff in like the last six weeks they played the commander defense same exact thing has happened to that defense last few weeks Step Up in class against the Ravens and the Browns and we’re starting to see them struggle to score now this is not a good Bengals defense I completely get it and there’s going to be opportunity for them to move but I I trust the Bengals offense a lot more especially with the likelihood that Orlando Brown is going to be back in this particular matchup hate to fade the Steelers they have cost me a lot of money this year I’ll be very candid about them I’ve not gotten a lot of their games right but I actually think Cincinnati is the side in this game Jud you could uh play the tiebreaker on this one if you have any thoughts yeah I also like Cincinnati uh I think that just the nature of uh Pittsburgh’s offense is generally volatile as you’re saying a lot of their success has been on third and fourth down and the entirety of their uh offenses uh like EPA gain is on deep passes and like Russell Wilson’s going to have uh better efficiency numbers than your average Quarterback but the degree to which that’s been true is is not really sustainable I don’t think and on the other side of the ball uh Pittsburgh plays a ton of man coverage I think it’s the the third most in the NFL uh and really in that cluster doing so on on half their routes and uh what that means effectively is that you’re going to have uh the like B Talent win out uh this is true much more in man coverage than than Zone coverage and Joey Porter’s been incredible uh in man coverage he’s like 95th percentile in his ability to to prevent separation uh he’s been great and that works a lot of the time when you don’t have teams with with great receiving depth but when you’ve got Dante Jackson who’s allowing 2.3 yards per route run in in man coverage is like the seventh worst and man separation going up against one of t haens or Jamar Chase that’s a bit of a a disaster waiting to happen uh beanie Bishop also has been terrible in man coverage I think he’s the second worst in his ability to prevent separation in man coverage uh these are exactly the spots where the Bengals can attack and lastly uh teams have been playing a ton of twoo High coverage against Joe BR right trying to take away the explosive plays he’s seen uh two High coverage at the third highest rate in the NFL the Steelers have played uh 75% single High coverage which is like 8% more than the second closest team it doesn’t matter their opponent they’re going to play single high this is a coverage that historically the Bengals have dominated uh and I think this is kind of the matchup where they get the explosive plays going you have a weak link uh that’s anyone that that’s not Joey Porter and the Bangals can have a ton of success kind of like we saw the Browns have uh this past week the Bengals have also been doing a great job getting ball out quick mitigating the effects of the Steelers ability to generate pressure I think they should be able to score points uh and the Steelers offense is just so volatile can they keep up yes uh do I think that kind of in any given matchup uh they they can kind of put up a dud yes that’s also kind of the nature of their team and I think they’re a little bit less sensitive to particular matchups that even though the Bengals have been bad on defense uh the Steelers might not be able to take advantage of the spot Judah we’re going to keep it with you for our next game here before we do I did love this comment being bad on early Downs is how you channel the voodoo for third down at science from Conor I mean listen it it is frustrating but at some point I gotta tell myself this is not repeatable and um I feel like we’re in that territory right now I started to see it against the Browns on Thursday Night Football all right over to our next game we got a AFC South matchup the Texans out on the road taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars it’s been oneway money towards the Jags as the probability of Trevor Lawrence St starting in this game has started to increase right now at FanDuel taking a look at the number we have a four and a half on the board I think it’s the last four and a half out there the rest of the market is at fours total in the game 43 and a half Judah you wanted to talk about this one what are you seeing in this matchup yeah I like the uh over here and on the the Texans side of the ball I think the over is pending uh and I guess everything is is pending the quarterback and Doug Peterson is kind of speaking like Trevor Lawrence is in Peterson is also probably the least reliable coach in his his coach speak uh he has been misleading on so many occasions that I am not convinced that this is going to be uh Trevor Lawrence though I think the market is is heavily implying that it will be uh and I think that the kind of Houston offense uh a lot of talk about Bobby slowick this uh the Texans offense is is bad I think a lot of that’s overblown uh and especially so in in spots where they have kind of matchup Advantage we saw this a ton last year where CJ Stroud was really really good uh or I should say he was at his best when you had kind of the combo of a defense that cannot generate pressure and is very vulnerable to explosive plays uh he was by far the best in the NFL kind of when when you get spots where both of those uh conditions are met and that’s precisely what the Jaguars are right now and this is also true for this year I should add uh it’s not just uh looking back at 2023 obviously their 2023 numbers are going to look better they were a better offense last year than they were this year uh but all that is to say the Jaguars over the last like six weeks have like an 8% quick pressure rate dead last in the NFL they’re allowing more explosive plays than anyone they play a ton of man coverage they don’t have anyone to cover uh Nico Collins and and tank Dale uh sure Tyson Campbell’s a solid corner but uh he’s not going to be able to shut down Nico Collins uh the Texans offensive line has been a a massive problem they they punted Kenyan green to to the bench and and he and his 20 PFF grade he had been a disaster at guard the offensive line numbers have looked a lot better since then this is as good a matchup as you’re going to see for a quarterback whose traits uh I think are particularly vulnerable to uh matchups a guy who takes too many sacks but has such an ability to create and especially create downfield when things are in structure and I think he’s going to be in structure a ton uh I I guess just quickly on on the other side of the ball if we do get a healthy Trevor Lawrence I think this total is way too short at at 43 and a half Houston invites a ton of deep throws that’s basically been the entirety of the Jaguars offense with Trevor Lawrence this year I think they’ll be able to connect on a couple of those uh and and no matter what that’s the sort of thing that uh props up totals because if you’re throwing a lot down field uh that is either you’re you’re getting chunk plays or you’ve got a much lower completion completion percentage and you’re going to get more play volume on the other side so like the over here and really really like the Texans in this spot also also all right we’re going to shift games and we’re going to also look at another total in this game we have the Seattle Seahawks traveling East to take on the New York Jets the Jets appear to be in severe dysfunction right now lots of talk about Aaron Rogers whether or not he’s coming back next year whether he’s playing hurt just a a number of things to take into account here this number got his high as two and a half two and a half that seemed to be the resistance point a little bit of jets money there brought it back down to one and a half uh total was bet down earlier in the week today caught some over money we’re sitting at 42 a half at FanDuel right now uh some books in Market I believe have a 43 those those look like they’ve disappear just 42 and a halfs right now well 143 out there uh Suma I’ll start with you here total in this matchup what are you thinking yes I like the under here Seattle’s defense has been vastly improving they look like a completely different unit coming out of their bye um I think there are several factors why that is um a I think Ernest Jones was a phenomenal signing for them um you I think you see that they are much more stable against the one their defensive line has been willed with injuries earlier in the season they are mostly healthy right now and there there might all be also be like a a hidden factor of Mike McDonald learning what he has from a personal standpoint when he came to to Baltimore that Ravens defense was very bad over the first first seven eight or nine weeks and then as the season progressed they um got better and better towards the end towards the end of the season and then in in the second year they were completely dominant and I think now everything is coming together he fixed his his linebacker issue they’re getting healthier along the defensive line and their cornerbacks are also playing at a very high level right now and now we are getting a Jets offense where I cannot bet on them coming out much differently out of their bye because they um seem like a very storn offense just the offense that Aaron Rogers wants to run and I think when you are so predictable good deas in the league will find more options and more answers against your offense um no Tyrant Smith most likely um jets offensive line I don’t think that they have a good matchup I don’t think that they will be able to run the ball weall did not practice today we’ll see whether he’s going to end up playing but I I just don’t think that the that the Jets offense who have been very underwhelming all season long can all of a sudden move the ball efficiently down the field against this um improved Seahawks defense and then on the other side the Jets defense has been really really bad since Robert Salah left but they get CJ Mosley back and they are facing a Seahawks offensive line that has has had issues in one blocking and pass protection all all season long um the Jets did a very good job at stopping the one against the the Colts two weeks ago I think they had like eight tackles for loss or something so I think they should also have a decent match up against this um Seahawks offensive line and they might also get a lot of pressure on G Smith and goo Smith is like a bottom three quarterback against pressure this season he has a minus 0.5 for EPA per drop Pi against pressure 34% success weight so all in all this strikes me like an under game um I will say I would not like uh the the SEO new starting center to drop another um snap over the head of Junior Smith and then Jets recovering the fumble near the end zone that would be would not so not be that great for the over but all in all I think this is a very good matchup for the under because I think both offenses will struggle yeah it’s hilarious Connor Williams retired midweek and then they brought it they have uh oluwatimi as the backup center and they’ve had all sorts of issues with him snapping the ball as well seems like that’s constantly the problem with Seattle and I’m in agreement with you I think this total is a little too high I talked about this on Sunday Night Football with Clive but on the jet side of things no Tyron Smith I mean listen Tyron Smith has not been the the Cowboys Tyron Smith of old at this point or another but he is much better than Olu fashanu who’s starting at at left tackle and this offense plays so slow and predictable there’s just nothing downfield they grind clock I mean it they average such a low number of offensive plays per game and when you consider the amount that they’ve actually been trailing this year it’s just slow as molasses on the Seattle side yeah I have concerns just like sua does about the Jets defense but the Seahawks have gotten San Fran who I think has a very overrated defense uh by the market and Arizona in the past couple weeks they didn’t I mean they basically won the game against Arizona last week on a pick six not because of their offense they seem to move the ball okay between the 30s they bogg down in the Red Zone pretty consistently there’s too many negative plays on offense whether that’s Holdings uh Gino Smith taking a sack it’s just not a team that is built to score a lot of points right now so for me personally uh I like the under in this game along with Suma numbers wise I do have a small Edge on the Jets I just don’t think that I I can honestly get there at this point um moving along here’re we’re just going through totals here um it’s all right I mean you can bet sides you can bet totals we like a lot of totals this week uh Tampa Bay Carolina NFC South Carolina looking little more feisty in uh in recent weeks they took the the the Chiefs to the wire last week Tampa Bay absolutely destroyed Tommy DeVito and the Jets this has come off six at fanduels at 5 and a half in terms of the spread the total is what we want to talk about here though at 46 and a half and we’ll lead it off here again with you Judah yeah we spoke about this a bit I think it was before the the London game of Carolina like really changing up their uh offense running a lot more motion a lot more play action going from like a 20% runov expected team on early Downs to a neutral team on early downs and uh it has seemingly unlocked Bryce young as as not the worst quarterback in football uh but something that’s looked like just a bad quarterback uh and one where they’ve been able to move the ball H and the Tampa Bay defense had a great performance against the Giants last week uh they do do a good job uh with their ability to generate pressure the secondary has been a disaster All Season uh and actually the area where Bryce young has gotten significantly better is in his ability to mitigate pressure he’s scrambling a lot more and his performance has improved uh against pressure and Tampa Bay just I think has in kind of that perfect spot against the Tommy DeVito who is historically bad in his uh pressure to to sack rate H it’s about 40% which is just like 10% higher than uh the next closest for for the career uh it’s kind of the perfect storm so I think this is a spot where Carolina is going to be able to move the ball uh and Tampa Bay despite the injuries they they are kind of top five in any Drive level metric you want to look at H they’re sustain they’re they’re not punting they’re sustaining drives they’re scoring touchdowns uh they can win in in every such way their ground game has really gotten going in recent weeks Carolina’s obviously extremely vulnerable there they’re extremely vulnerable against the pass uh I think each team’s going to be able to finish their drives H and this Panthers offense uh they’ve had a good run game all all season granted Tampa Bay done a pretty good job since V has been back of stopping the run but I see as this as a spot where both teams are going to be able to move the ball uh and this total is a little bit low especially with uh how how good Tampa Bay has been and I think that’s one of the lower variant spots is is their ability to score points on the Panthers Suma did you have a similar take on the total here exactly uh exactly this um I’ve been a baker Stan for quite some time now this season I think this this offense is designed very well by Li Cohen they they even moved the ball like Judah said when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down now Evans is back Tristan wors he might be back but I I’m not sure that it will matter too much against the uh Panthers defense um I expect the the the Bucks to to move the ball very well and score a lot of points here and then yeah we have to upgrade this Bryce young Panthers offense I I watched J salabit breakdown today on on this game highly recommend that that video and this this clear just looks like a different guy like a different offense I I I will not say like a top 10 guy or something but he has clearly made a a step forward I like their pass protection in general and the Bucks defense when you look at recent weeks they have not been good they are bad against the pass and I think the Panthers um should be able to move the ball and I also agree with Judah that the total is a little bit short in my yeah point of view in my point of view I’m with you guys as well um Bryce is playing better and as much as people want to talk like I’ve heard talk about the Panthers defense being improved and and listen they are they were they were really unhealthy for a long portion of this season right and we saw them sack Patrick Mahomes five times last week that seems to be what people are very fixated on the Chiefs last week had an 84.4 series conversion rate that was tops in all of football they had 20 seven first downs that was tops in all of football they had a 55% success rate that was tops in all of football I have some concerns with Tristan wars being out against some other teams not so much against the Panthers I do think Tampa Bay has a very good OC like Suma mentioned uh I’m I’m with you guys here I think it’s it’s a little bit short on the total uh keep going along here and we’re going to stick in the NFC with the Rams and the New Orleans Saints uh um this has been like service play back and forth this week on this game uh early money towards Rams drew it up to three we got a a hashtag feed me today on the Saints took it off of three a little bit more money on the Rams after it came off of three total in the game sitting at 48 and a half as well Suma we’ll go over to you here on this one Rams and Saints what are you seeing in this match up yeah um I’m I still am having a rough time grasping this Saints offense because they keep playing better than what their personal looks like they lost their top two wide receivers they had injuries on the offensive line Derek car was out for for several weeks but they keep playing highly efficient on offense um might be the OC um might be tesm Hill I mean since since week three so I I excluded the the two Juggernaut Games since week three this this offense which also includes games with Spencer redler um has been averaging a 0.08 EPA per play and a 43% success rate with tyon Hill just being on the field um Clint kuek has been using him more and more since he got back from injury I think that also collides with the injuries too um Rashid Shahed and Chris LA but I mean last week he saw I think seven runs 10 targets and those become really efficient over time and they they might just be a really unique offense in the sense that they don’t have great personal right now but with the with the scheme with with tesm Hill with heavy play action they somehow and and and the occasional deep bomb to to MBS they might just find success to drop points on opposing offenses uh opposing defenses so um that’s why I’ve been buing the total a little bit here because um I also think that on the other side the Rams offense should be able to score points on the Saints but I would also like to see um Rob havenstein being back the um Rams had issues in pass protection without him recently and while the Saints don’t have the greatest pass rush I think this is still an issue um with the with and and the common scheme with the Rams they they simply play better when their pass protection can hold up and if if it does if it can I think there will be a lot of space um in the back seven of the Saints defense so quietly um leaning towards the over um because of all the weirdness that the Saints offense brings Sammy says hard to bet the Rams with that o line right now and to me it’s really the right right tackle is very pronounced right now like havenstein is a good right tackle Joe not booom is not and you saw very clear drop off where the Eagles were pressuring from that side pretty consistently McVey said yesterday that havenstein is trending towards playing this week we don’t know if that means he’s going to play or not but there are some coaches who are pure Liars there are other ones that are not necessarily I think I take McVey at face value uh in that havenstein is tending trending towards playing I think that would make a huge difference for the Rams offense in this particular matchup um okay final game we’re going to talk about here before we get into our Best Bets for the week and this one is is a doozy it is the Eagles it is the Ravens it is a battle of two teams playing really good football Ravens minus three minus 108 at FanDuel total in the game 51 and a half we have seen that number get bet down to 51 elsewhere but it remains 51 and a half at FanDuel Judah over to you here first Ravens Eagles give us your thoughts yeah I think this is an extremely intriguing matchup on on many fronts uh I think that uh I guess to start I assume ran Smith’s gonna play because uh he was like even warming up for the the Monday night game to to see if he could give it a go uh and I think that matters a lot for uh this matchup considering how good the Ravens run defense has been basically since he got off to Baltimore uh and even in the first half last week was was struggling to stop the run against the the Chargers before I don’t even I think the Chargers like ran the ball four times in the second half they kind of got game script out of that one uh and I think that’s kind of how the Eagles are are running their offense and perhaps it doesn’t even matter if ronith is in the way the Eagles are running right now they’re they’re kind of H can can beat anyone via the ground game uh and they’re probably the most complete team in football uh this is a defense which is like allowing four yards per play uh over the last couple of months of the Season that is by far the best in the NFL uh what do you do when you kind of have a Ravens offense which is probably the best in the NFL themselves going up against an elite defense the market seems to think that uh this is a spot where where the Ravens offense can win I agree uh but it’s almost like there are just so many clashes here uh of an eagles offense that loves to run the ball against one of the best run defenses in the NFL uh the on the other side of the ball you’ve got uh the Eagles who who uh are are so good uh running excuse me you got the the Ravens who are so good on offense going up against uh a great defense and I think the Eagles are kind of naturally vulnerable to game States they they want to be playing from ahead and especially against teams with really great pass rushes they tend to struggle Herz has been terrible dealing with pressure uh the Ravens haven’t had a great pass rush the pass defense has been much better over the last couple of weeks a lot of things kind of clashing and interacting here a great game don’t have uh a strong opinion at the moment but I’ll be monitoring the injury report and certainly stok to watch this one Suma over to you here what do you see in Ravens Eagles yes I agree um also watching the injury report if um ran Smith is back and Michael Pierce f are playing I think the Ravens have their full as of weapons on defense against the run where they have been exceptionally well this this season and this might be the the first matchup where the Eagles cannot efficiently run the ball across 60 minutes and I’m not yet at a point where I trust jayen Herz to really air it out without the the help of a consistent one game slash if he is playing from behind um the Eagles defense has been really really good but I think this this um Ravens one game with Lama Jackson will be a completely completely different task and if the Ravens can put scoring pressure on the Eagles and uh be starred against the run I think that there is a decent scenario where jilen hers struggles um second half um when when when the chars were were backed up um Zack or also sent a a lot of great pressure packages and Jaye Herz has been horrendous against pressure this this season I think that the Eagles um primarily want to won the ball well and um keep hers out of these um many obvious backed up passing situations and this might finally be the matchup where things do not go so well for them uh I agree with you here on this one and like we haven’t talked at all about Devonte Smith in this particular matchup yet who I mean it’s not a foregone conclusion he’s returning in fact listen if I had if I was a betting man at plus 100 right now I would say I think Smith is more likely to miss this upcoming week that’s not a lot of information widely available but there are quarterbacks that have torn up the Ravens secondary this year and we know that they’re a pass funnel defense right this has been the case all year but they’ve been better in the secondary since Marlin Humphrey has been at full health and it’s not like every quarterback can just tear up every secondary I mean you’re looking at an eagles offense that is basically down to AJ Brown and no one else that they they trust and can Jaylen Herz be the guy to do that I’m not convinced this isn’t Justin Herbert throwing to wide open receivers and and and and guys that are winning this is a worse receiving core without Devonte and a worse quarterback than Justin Herbert other side Suma made great points but Michael Pierce ran Smith you know the eagles need to be able to run the ball effectively I don’t think that they can I’m not saying that this is a super valuable number however we’re looking at where the market making books are right now they’re shaded pretty heavily towards the Eagles if this does come off three I would be pretty quick to by the Ravens in this spot so I’m in agreement with Suma on this one all right that’s it for the breakdowns of the games a reminder again we’re live back here tomorrow morning for Thanksgiving Day games it’s gonna be 11 A.M eastern time we’re Jam loaded with guests every single guest is given their favorite pick of the day their favorite favorite prop of the day and they’re building an SGP tomorrow as well every guest that joins us for Progress 11:00 a.m. eastern time do not miss it obviously it’s a pretty time-sensitive show let’s get to Best Bets of the three of us boys I won last week so I’m going to be leading it off here I’m heading to another total this week I’m going with the Rams and the Saints over 48 and a half minus 110 currently at FanDuel it is a good price I would play this across the market now but I encourage you to bet it at FanDuel where they are offering a better price than Market Suma mentioned some great points about the Saints offense it’s listen the wide receiving cor is nothing to write home about without olave and Shahed they found a way to make it work they’re stretching the field with Marquez Valdes scantling but their EPA and success rates with taes Hill on versus off change drastically also improves a Red Zone efficiency a lot I do think the Saints can score on the other side havenstein trending towards returning and I think that’s massive for this offense I struggle to see the Saints defense generating any pressure you look at the cornerback crew for New Orleans right now well Marshon Latimore is in Washington Paulson adbo is on IR they do have Kool-Aid mckinstry back at least but they cannot cover the Rams Receivers in this particular game they’re also not a good run defense either teams have run all over them this season so I’m looking at them I’m looking at the this is like the get right type of situation similar to how we saw them move the ball against the Patriots defense a few weeks back I think they’ll move the ball in this game as well so Rams Saints over 48 and a half is going to be my play Juda over to you what’s it going to be and why going with Cincinnati minus five and a half I think we’re playing on the uh matchup here as we talked about earlier that Pittsburgh is going to say in their single High coverage which is an area that Cincinnati excels in and they do not have the Personnel to match up in man coverage also what they love to do uh with Higgins and and Chase healthy and on the other side of the ball uh I think Pittsburgh is just uh less equipped I guess to to take advantage of the matchup with Cincinnati they’re forcing coverage mistakes at one of the lowest rates in the NFL Russa Wilson is throwing into Tight Windows uh these are plays that are extremely variant and yes that he can sustain that success uh or directionally sustain that success but I don’t think the degree to which uh he has had success with the best deep uh EPA in the in the NFL uh this season is going to sustain itself I think they’re Bound for some regression taking Cincinnati on the alts I think we might have had a first in forward progress Best Bets history exes and Judah in unanimous agreement when has this ever H and maybe it’s just the holiday season it’s the Thanksgiving holiday that’s got exx feeling good but some positivity around your pick this week Judah so there you go just to encourage me the Best Bets have been so bad it’s you need to change things up mix it up and uh something might yeah you know listen I I do I do condone like I have some respect for you having you know the balls this year to to look for some of the alt prices like it’s a very limited sample we’re being judged on this year you’ve gone you’ve gone for some some deep shots and had you gone spread just regular spread earlier in the year your record would be a lot better but hopefully this is one where you can uh get some back in the units column with the Cincinnati Bengals Suma we are going to end it with you here you’ve you’ve switched midow this is I don’t know about the the midow switches and how they’ve done in the history of this show but hopefully it’s a winner this week what are you going with Suma yeah Jason should pull off pull up the record um I’m going with Panthers bucks over 40 six and a half we talked about it I I like this matchup I’ve been high on the on the bucks um offense pretty much all season long I think they will continue to score a bunch of points but top top five scoring offense um I don’t think that the pan defense will hold up against that and then we are looking at a improved Panthers offense w w w with a Young quarterback um who’s made a significant step forward with a passing game that looks much more smoothly and on the opposing side there’s a defense that I don’t really like that has gotten worse against the pass so this really uh strikes me like a great matchup for an overa with with two very lethal passing offenses with great matchups all right so those are the three Best Bets this week I’m going Ram Saints over Suma Panthers bucks over judah’s taking an alternate line with the Cincinnati Bengals Ron says the small samples by Design as chosen by the show that’s true in hindsight I felt it was really lame last year when we had the Lanser board and like we were toting our records on leans and stuff like that maybe at some point we’ll figure out a way to increase this sample size give ourselves a better chance but uh it is what it is and that’s going to do it for this week’s show that’s a wrap for NFL week 13 Best Bets thank you so much for tuning in and spending part of your week with us if you enjoyed the content or if you’re just here to watch us slowly climb out of the beding Abyss wherever we’re in right now be sure to hit the like button and subscribe to forward progress on YouTube you can also find us on Spotify and apple podcasts for your listening needs drop your thoughts and your picks in the comments we gen genuinely love hearing from you guys yes even if it’s just to remind us that two and two is somehow an improvement for us drop some comments it goes a long way in the algorithm for myself robola for Judah Fort gang for Fabian Sr Suma we want to wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving if you’re in the United States take time to enjoy the moments that matter most family friends food football what else could you ask for whether you’re betting or you’re just celebrating hope your holiday is full of Good Vibes and better luck than we’ve had this this season best of luck with your Best Bets as always bet responsibly we’ll see you next time who knows maybe we’ll even string together a winning week this week it could happen it could happen thanks for tuning in this has been forward progress peace out
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