๐ Published on: 2024-11-26 11:00:06
โฑ Duration: 00:33:40 (2020 seconds)
๐ Views: 3046 | ๐ Likes: 129
๐ Video Description:
Explore the New York Mets’ off-season strategy as they eye top MLB free agents Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried.
Which ace pitcher is the perfect fit to elevate the Mets’ rotation?
This episode of Locked On Mets dives into the team’s pressing need for a dominant pitcher, weighing the pros and cons of each candidate.
Host Ryan Finkelstein breaks down the potential impact of signing Snell, who offers a high upside without a qualifying offer, and contrasts it with the reliability of Fried’s consistent performance.
The discussion also covers Burns’ workhorse potential and his market value compared to other elite pitchers.
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๐ Channel Country: United States
๐ Tags:
mlb,major league baseball,mlb scores,mets,mets news,mets game,mets roster,mets depth chart,new york mets,new york mets news,new york mets roster,Blake Snell,Corbin Burnes,Max Fried,free agent aces,Scott Boras
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Transcript:
Corbin Burns Blake Snell and Max freed are the three top Aces on the free agent Market which one is the best fit for the New York Mets we’ll talk about it on today’s show you are locked on Mets your daily New York Mets podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello to all you uh Maze and Mets Fame you’re watching locked on that’s part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day I’m here Ryan felstein if you want to find any of my work follow me on X atfl Stein Ryan you can also find some my writing at just baseball.com where I work as the managing editor today’s episode’s brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use the code locked on MLB for $2 off your first purchase now if there is one thing the New York Mets need above all else this off seon it’s an ace yes we spent a lot of time talking about Juan SoDo he’s a franchise altering Talent like we all hope he ends up in a Mets uniform but if we were just to rank the Mets needs getting an ace is pretty much a top the list the Mets have kodai SGA but he’s coming off an injury plagued year sha Mani was their Ace this past season are they going to resign him and even if they do is that enough to put the Mets over the top there’s three pitchers in free agency that stand out Above All the Rest that’s Blake Snell Max freed and Corbin Burns so looking at those guys if you’ve paid attention to this show throughout the offseason if you’ve been tuning in you’ve probably heard me hint this a couple times Blake Snell to me is my favorite among those three for one primary reason that’s the fact that he does not have a qualifying offer attached to him sign Blake Snell you’re going to pay him a lot of money but that’s it you’re not giving up draft picks you’re not giving up International bonus pool money but I will say through diving into this exercise today of really looking at these free agents I have warmed a little bit to both freed and burns and being okay with giving up Those comp picks because ultimately you just want to hit on the right pitcher because this is a pitcher that regardless of which one you signed is probably going to be under contract for I would think five years at least Blake Snell’s the one that might get for a shorter term deal higher aav and that’s also attracted to me but ultimately you want to NAB the right guy and if you give up some more draft Capital but you got the right pitcher it’s all fine and well so I really want to focus more on the pitchers today as opposed to just that side of it but I will say again Blake Snell does have that intriguing element to him that he doesn’t have the qualifying off for attach you never know though that might just drive up the bidding on BL now Services last year he hit the open market coming off a Sai Young season and could not get that long-term deal for whatever it’s worth whether that was because of the market with other teams and everyone was just fascinated by yoshin noo Yamoto and nobody was W willing at the time to commit years to snil whether that was Scott Boris just completely misplaying his Market we’ll never know why that went the way it did but I think ultimately with Blake Snell teams were having trouble buying into the Sai Young year which was a 225 ER and 32 starts 180 Innings pitched he led the leagan walks but also L the leagan strikeouts he is a very interesting pitcher because he does operate on that Miss bats model of throw nasty pitches a lot of pitches out of the Zone you’re trying to get Chase and that’s going to limit damage for the most part if you’re getting the those swings if you’re getting that chase but it also can get you into trouble where you’re loading the bases with walks and all of a sudden one one big swing can kill you so that’s I think the risk reward that teams were weighing and giving up all of the the comp pick value on signing him when he had a qualifying offer attach last year plus the contract plus Scott Boris maybe asking too much coming off the sa young maybe that is what held back his Market also you look at the volatility year-over-year because this is a two-time sa young winner guy that’s won in both leagues won his first sa young in 2018 as a tapa Bay Ray when he pitched to a 189 ra and struck out 221 in 180 and two3 innings pitched but those two sa young seasons are the only time Blake Snell has ever even exceeded 130 Innings pitched 2019 he follows with the sa young with a 429 ER 107 Innings 2020 shorten year he was great but it was the co year 324 RA in 50 Innings 11 starts 2021 4.20 ra and 27 starts 128 and two third Innings pitched 2022 ra backed down to 3.38 but 24 starts 128 Innings and then you got the saion season in 2023 look at his career overall 3.19 right for Blake Snell and here’s the interesting stat 11.2 strikeout per nine rate is the best in MLB history say that again 11.2 stri stri out per nine rate so how many strikeouts he averages over nine innings 11.2 is the highest Mark in MLB history that’s how nasty this guy is this past year he had a mixed season again because he didn’t get spring training he had an adductor injury he had a groin injury he went on paternity leave he only made eight starts in the first half and pitched to a 631 ER but in the second half he made 12 starts he pitched to A4 45 ER struck out 103 and 68 in the third Innings pitched threw a no hitter and had a whip of 0.89 that is walks and hits over Innings pitch if you have a whip under one that is Elite if you have a whip under 0.9 it’s remarkable he was for those 12 starts the best pitcher in baseball again after doing that all year in 2023 so when I look at Blake Snell he’s turning 3 next week if he gets a 5-year deal yes there’s some risk because this is a guy that relies on nasty stuff if the stuff declines it can get ugly for Blake Snell but purely based on a domination Factor you can make the case that when this guy is on he’s the best pitcher in baseball because over the last two seasons when he’s gotten himself right he’s been pitching consistently to a sub two even at times a sub one5 ER he has been unbelievable and this year he even shook off that noo not being able to go deep into games because he was doing that and he had his first ever complete game and it was a no hitter so the question now is how much money does he get does the fact that he doesn’t have the qualifi flying off for attach inflate what he’s going to end up earning here there a lot of teams going to be in on him over freed and burned simply because they don’t want to give up that compensation how many years is he gonna get if you can get Blake now for less than five years I almost don’t care how much money it costs I really don’t because you’re just you’re mitigating the risk fiveyear deal where you’re going to be paying for age 32 33 34 35 see that fourth years age 35 or 63 well I guess it would just be age 35 and age 36 that’d be really concerned about the last two years of that deal I’d be a little more worried but I’d be okay with it gets to a six-year deal seven-year deal if he ends up getting that many years I’d probably stay away I just don’t think he’s going to get that many years I think he’s gonna ultimately land on a pretty high aav fiveyear deal and I would be all in on Blake Snell this guy is just absolutely disgusting I trust that it’s legit I think he’s going to keep on Pitch like this for the next couple of years if you get to a point where Blake Snell is right in October that’s a guy that I’m excited to hand the ball to because I think he can absolutely deliver in the biggest moments but there’s definitely still some risk there that you can’t ignore the fact that he hasn’t ever put up backto back Workhorse like seasons and even his sa young Seasons it’s 180 Innings it’s not 200 Innings as we get to Corbin Burns in the final segment that’s more of the Workhorse model that Mets fans might want in the middle though we got Max freed to talk about I think he sort of splits the difference in some ways between Blake Snell and Corin Burns I’m GNA tell you why in just a minute first though quick word from our sponsors love the holidays but hate grocery shopping iata is making your Thanksgiving easier with cash back on everything you need to make your perfect holiday meal so you can get the turkey and your favorite sides for free this month iata is giving new users 100% cash back on your Thanksgiving fees just add the offers in the app to redeem everything you need to make your thank Thanksgiving feast complete all you have to do shop at your favorite retailers and upload your receipt ibata gives you cash back on hundreds of grocery items from produce to personal care to pant your goods so you can get everything you need for the holidays other apps give you points that don’t amount to much with ibata you get real cash back that you can cash out to your bank account PayPal or gift cards download the ibata app now and use the code locked on MLB to get 100% cash back on your Thanksgiving feast starting November 1st just go to the app store Google Play Store and download the free ibata app use that code locked on MB that’s ibata IBO TTA in the Google Play or App Store and use the code locked on MLB today’s episode’s also brought to you by game time game time it’s a fast needy way to buy tickets for all the sports music comedy and Theater events near you what I love about game time it’s so much easier to get tickets particularly last minute tickets I usually don’t find my tickets to the game until I’m walking into the ballp Parker to the arena and then I’m looking on the app they have the game time picks feature which will filter out the fluff and only show you incredible deals on great seat so you don’t have to waste your time surger through thousands of tickets you see the best possible deals you can also click the Allin price feature so you know exactly how much you’re going to pay with all the fees 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Miss time in 2023 due to an injury making only 14 starts still pitched to a 255 ra that year but other than that if you go back to 2019 his first full season in the Braves rotation he has pitched at least 165 Innings each year if you look at his stat since 2020 the ER he had this year at 325 is the highest Mark he has had so he has really just been an out standing Ace year overy year on a team that has had other good pitchers that have over shadowed him whether it’s s this past year Spencer Strider there’s been other arms that sort of get that Acclaim before Max freed but Max freed is as consistent as they come career erra of 3.07 he’ll be 31 years old next year look at what he’s done against the Mets they should maybe just sign him so he never pitches against them again 248 career Ur against the Mets in 109 Innings he has killed them now comparing freed to Blade now is it’s two completely different animals because you’re talking about stuff versus pitchability really they couldn’t be more different in a lot of ways we actually did a dive on this at just baseball it’s titled who’s better Max freed versus Blake Snell and I think the stat that jumped out to me most reading this thing back as I was pre or know preparing for the show today was where our writer Zack Warden pointed out Freed’s Stuff Plus so Stuff Plus tracks each individual pitch 100 is average okay so it’ll tell you which pitches are Elite which pitches are average which are below average and it’s very interesting when you look at the entire Arsenal for Max freed this is straight from our article at just baseball he said freed Stuff Plus tracking dates back to 2020 and not once since then has Freed’s Arsenal graded out at above League average so now you’re thinking wait a minute so he doesn’t have great stuff a little bit further on this his slider and keral have always been great pitches according to the model but his other four offerings have never received a number above 100 this doesn’t mean they aren’t effective pitches but it does signal that it’s not raw stuff that’s carried him through 884 in the third n will be Innings with a 3.07 ER so what we’re saying is you look at stuff plus look at you know what he throws outside of his put away pitches his slider his curveball he doesn’t have an elite fastball that he’s relying on the way Blake Snell does for Max freed it’s about control it’s about pitchability and the thing that makes that intriguing while you might say man give me the stuff give me the nastiness give me the guy that for his career has struck out more batters per nine than anyone in MLB history I want that type of dominance Max freed might be a safer bet because he does doesn’t rely on the strikeouts he’s got a decent strikeout rate right he’ll probably be somewhere in a given season between eight nine strikeouts per nine like he’s still probably going to strike out a batter per inning or a little bit less than that you know if he throws 175 Innings he’s probably gonna strike out 170 it’s going to be a good enough rate but he also doesn’t walk a lot of guys so you’re looking at a pitcher that I think the floor is much higher than Blake Snell Snell’s got the highest ceiling of any pitcher in baseball in a lot of respects Max freed has a very high floor and I think if Blake Snell’s stuff tails off it the floor can drop out from under him right because all of a sudden he’s trying to avoid bats he doesn’t have that great stuff he’s not getting the chase now he’s walking the world now the big Innings keep coming now all of a sudden Blake Snell who at one point is the best pitcher on baseball when he’s on doesn’t have that gear anymore and the erra balloons into the high fours and he’s not giving a lot of innings and all of a sudden it’s a horrible contract Max freed on the other hand you feel pretty good about the fact that even if the stuff does tail off some with pitchability he should be able to continue to control the strike zone get out keep hitters off balance evolve and potentially be a pitcher that even if the stuff isn’t always there he’s still at least a durable consistent starting pitcher that’s middle of rotation if you know anything and he doesn’t fall off to the point where you’re just like man this contract is killing us so that’s the the risk and reward I think ultimately when you look at the years that freed might get I think there’s a chance that Max freed might be able to push for a sixth year or a seventh year where Blake Snell the the route to you know winning free agency for Snell might just be short-term High a so with Max freed maybe it’s seven years and I’m just throwing numbers out there actually you know what I did a lot of thought on this let me actually instead of just talking at of school let me look at what I spent my time pouring over um for just baseball in our top free agent predictions article that I wrote see exactly what I had I think it was 6 for 190 if I’m not mistaken off the top of my head uh I had him going to the Dodgers I know that much seven for 190 is where I landed on Blake Snell excuse me on Max freed so you look at what that comes out to it’s $27 million per that’s a pretty nice contract now with Snell I had him getting five years and it was 155 so let’s break that down that is 31 a season so I do think that when it comes to aav Blake Snell is g to make more than Max freed but I think freed is going to get those extra couple years and you just have to weigh the risk reward on that um I’d also say there’s a world where maybe Snell ends up signing a three or four-year deal and he’s looking at a high a contract maybe he decides you know what I’d rather get 115 million over three years and hit for agency again and he’s making over $3 million per but you’re not tied to him long term and that’s really attractive I don’t think you can go wrong with either of these guys I really don’t really any of them when we’re going to talk about Burns in the final segment but I do think when we’re discussing the two left-handers in particular with Snell I think you’re betting on ceiling with freed you’re banking on floor and you just have to decide what’s more important to you um and ultimately see where the market goes in these guys I could see a world where maybe Max freed um little more underrated in the market maybe he ends up falling at at at a steal of a price so we’ll see how it all shakes out there’s also again the comp pick element to signing Max freed I think for me if the Mets end up signing Juan sto and you’re already going to be in that bucket of giving up the draft picks and the bonus pull money just lean into it at that point it doesn’t really matter as much if you end up missing out on Juan stto I still think you might have to bite the bullet for an Ace and that’s where we lead um you know that’s what leads us into Corbin Burns he’s the top pitcher on the market should the m just not mess around and sign him we G to break that down in the final segment first though another quick word from our sponsors today’s episode’s brought to you by FanDuel get ready to tackle the NFL action with FanDuel America’s number one sports book because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 and bonus bets if you win the fand sports book app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL all in one place so you get a hunch in the middle of the game you can check out the latest stats through live play byplay and so much more on the same page replace your bets just visit fanduel.com to join today and again you want to make sure that you’re gonna hit that first $ five bet maybe you’re just taking the over on saquan Barkley rushing yards this is a sad Giants fan talking uh again you’re gonna get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $ Five Doll bet so you take something like Barkley’s over on rushing yards you know it’s going to hit or maybe it’s the money line on the Eagles or whatever else it’s maybe it’s the money line uh against the Giants the money line for the Giants to lose and if you win that first bet you’re get $150 in bonus bets when you win that’s fanduel.com America’s number one sports book if you’re an everyday listener of the show make sure you become a locked on Mets Insider this is our texting service where get updates from me a Time news breaks the match you can ask me questions at any time can also take part in our locked on met sign photo giveaways going to be locked on Mets Insider find the link in the episode description go to sub.com lockon Mets all right so Corbin Burns is the best pitcher on the market there’s no doubt about that why is he the best pitcher on the market look at his last three seasons he has pitched to a 3.08 er over the last three years and that has across 590 Innings only two pitchers have thrown more Innings than Corbin Burns that’s Logan web that’s Aaron Nola Logan web has the most Innings pitch at a 3-2 2 ra he’s definitely the most underrated pitcher in baseball arinola 375 ra with the second most Innings but you look at that erra of 3.08 and each year he’s giving you 190 plus Innings it was 202 innings in 2022 193 and 23d innings in 2023 and this past year 194 in a third Innings all with ER below 35 three of the last four years he’s had a sub three er that’s past year 292 and the 194 and the third uh the year prior 2023 was a 3.39 but then you had 2.94 and then of course 2021 his first full season in the rotation I guess you can look at 2020 as well but that was the co year so 2021 First full 162 in a rotation he made 28 starts he pitched to an MLB best 2.43 ER he won the sa young all of his raid stats were Elite when you talk about expected ER 2.0 uh FIP Fielding independent pitching 1.63 xfip 2.30 F War which is WIS above replacement 7.5 they were all Elite home run per nine rate 0.38 he just kept the ball in the yard he struck out batters at a 36% rate he was just unhitable but I think the reason why you look at Corbin Burns and I isolated to the last three years not including That cion season because I think he’s become a different pitcher he has learned how to pitch to contact so I I’ve seen some out there that have painted Corbin Burns as a pitcher on a decline and the reason why they’ve done that is because they look at a couple things they look at his cutter which isn’t breaking as much as it did in 2021 and it’s been a steady decline they look at his strikeout rate right they they see the strikeout rate that was at 36% in his sa young season it’s down to 23.1% which is about League average he is not striking batters at an elite rate anymore and you get concerned about that you say man maybe this stuff’s tailing off to me the velocity is the first thing I look at it’s stayed the same he has not lost any velocity he’s still throwing 95 mile per hour Cutters and it’s still a nasty pitch that gets a lot of outs and the difference is Corbin Burns is not chasing swing and miss anymore yes you get into a strikeout count you want to get the punch out absolutely and he still has multiple offerings his curveball slider ch up that have a whiff rate this past year of 37% were better he still has those Elite offerings particularly the slider but he is pitching to contact to get deep in games he saw his sa young season where he made 28 starts him was at 167 Innings he wanted to make every single start and go as deep as he possibly could in games and I think he has leaned into pitching to contact more getting that first pick strike and if he does fall behind not being afraid to throw that cutter in the zone knowing that he has a great chance of still getting soft contact the hard hit rate against him this past year of 31.6% ranked in the 95th percentile among all pitchers so he’s not getting hit hard yes the strikeouts are necessarily there but if you want a Workhorse if you want a guy that you can pencil in for 190 plus innings in 2025 Corin Burns is the guy Blake Snell we know the Innings pitched have always been a question mark for him Max freed has been a good Workhorse absolutely but he hasn’t quite gotten to that level of Corbin Burns where he’s flirting with 200 Innings pit each each year and I think if you’re going to pay that premium maybe you do spend it on Corbin burns the question for me is what is Corbin Burns Market how much money is he going to get he just turned 30 years old so he’s actually younger than both Max fre and Blake Snell it’s a year year younger than freed two years younger than Snell I look at Corbin Burns and if I was his agent and that’s also Scott Boris I would be saying here’s Garrett Cole 2.0 now different pitchers that they aren’t identical but when it comes to what I’m selling to teams I am selling an ace that’s going to be right there to give you 200 Innings a year that’s what I’m telling you you’re getting if you sign Corbin Burns over the next years he’s going to get over 900 Innings pitch he’s going to get close to a th000 he is going to be that good that’s what you’re selling teams the year and year out it’s 200 Innings Garrett Cole was a year younger he was going into his age 29 season he got nine years $324 million from the Yankees $36 million per yoshinobu Yamamoto got $325 million to have the largest contract ever over a longer period of time but still Scott Boris I’m sure wants to set that next bar with Corbin Burns why not that’s what this guy does Scott Boris is an egotistical Maniac Okay he wants the top contract for pitchers the top contract for hitters the top contract in sports if he can have it that is what he is out to get so he might set that price tag at $326 million over a n-year deal that’s pretty much the exact Corbin burn excuse me the exact Garrett Cole contract so right around $36 million per be you know thousands of dollars more because it would have an extra million dollars split up over nine years but if you want to hit that number but not give him nine years if it’s an eight-year deal you’re looking at $40.75 million if the bidding gets that crazy I’m out I’m out the reason why I’d be on Corbin Burns because I don’t think there’s any team that is necessar going to go to that level to get him where is the desperate team that is going to sign him the way that the Yankees were all over Garrett Cole where the price tag was set 36 million per they went to nine years they were as aggressive as you can be to get that Ace is there a team in the market that’s going to meet that if there is let them have Corbin Burns I I I am not looking at Corbin Burns and saying yeah let’s let’s tie up nine years to this guy when he’s turning 30 I I just wouldn’t do it with that said my prediction on his contract in the article for just baseball was eight years $232 million that’s $29 million per year if that contract ends up being more in the line of what we’re talking about with Corbin Burns by the way if I have the stat right I think that would have made him the eighth if I’m not mistaken pitcher to ever get a a contract over $200 million so that’s not nothing okay to to get that deal that’s still a very good contract for him to land on and it’s eight years but that aav is at a point that I think it’s worth it um there’s other outlets to have him going as low as 175 to $200 million so it’s really hard to predict the market on Corbin Burns I don’t know how aggressively teams are spending on starting pitching this year and that long-term deal is that still on the table teams going to look at Garrett Cole say this is you know another version of that where we trust that he’s going to be healthy he’s going to be a Workhorse and they’re gonna sign up for it maybe and you know what you look at Garett Cole’s contract the first five years of that deal have been outstanding he’s been amazing but this year he got hurt now he got back on the mound he still looked like one of not the best pitcher in baseball when it matter most in the world series he was still great should have covered first but he was still great how are you looking at the next four years of that deal the Yankees told you because Scott Boris try to play the game there was that clause in the contract gar Cole could opt out and if he did the Yankees could opt into a 10th year they floated out that he was gonna opt out he either never did or they just ended up agreeing to the exact same terms the original contract I think they just never actually opted out and so they bluffed Yankees called their Bluff because they weren’t really willing to sign up for a fifth year at $36 million per they basically said go out in the market and get that money go out in the market right now and get five years and $180 million and Scott Boris ultimately caved on that so looking at Corbin Burns is the eight-year contract on the table or is it a seven-year deal or a six-year deal the reason why I predicted 8 for 232 and I did not have him sign with the Mets I actually have him signed with the Red Sox but the reason why I went that route with my prediction is because I think ultimately they’re going to want to get him over $200 million so I think it’s going to take an eighth year to do that granted he could have a seven-year deal at $29 million per or even let’s just say for round numbers $30 million per and get to 7 to10 I think that’s realistic but I ultimately think that they’re going to want to get that eighth year and if you’re the Mets and that aav is going to trickle down to $29 million and you’re getting the best pitcher on the market I still think that actually be worth it I would not be mad at that contract whatsoever but looking at the three I think weighing these Aces out you have Blake Snell highest ceiling possibly a lot of risk real question about how many years you should commit to him but maybe he’s the guy you can get the shortest term deal highest aav Max freed meets somewhere in the middle maybe you can get him on a six-year deal at a reasonable aav relatively of course $30 million is reasonable for a Frontline pitcher but still a lot of money maybe it’s somewhere around there and then you get to Corbin Burns who I think is going to get the longest deal so there’s that risk added to it but it’s the best possible pitcher I don’t think the Mets can make a mistake on any of these guys I think all of them would be great signs that you’re going to be excited about the more I thought about it as much as Blake Snell’s upside intrigues me going into next year who do I feel the best about I feel the best about the best possible pitcher and Corbin Burns is still the best possible pitcher but let me know in the comments section if you’re watching on YouTube which of the three pitchers you’d like them to sign I’m also going to put a poll up on YouTube today as well so you can vote on it uh and we’ll see how those markets develop probably after the WAN sto Domino Falls but you never know if one of these guys might just surprise us and sign early so it’s going to be a an exciting winner you don’t usually get three pitchers of this caliber all on the market at the same time and that should create a lot of fun discourse over the coming weeks here anyway that’s going to be all for today’s show I appreciate all of you for tuning in make sure you follow rate and review wherever you get your podcast follow me on X picklestein Ryan follow the show at locked on Mets thank you for making locked on Mets your first listener your first watch every single day now for your second watch head over to YouTube and check out the first ever 247 streaming Channel covers everything the World Sports talking about lockon sports today with our local host from each team League W host from each league by lockon sports today streaming 247 on YouTube for
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