๐ Published on: 2024-11-27 17:04:31
โฑ Duration: 00:21:09 (1269 seconds)
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๐ Video Description:
๐ NFL Survivor Pool Strategy Guide – Week 13 Breakdown | Thanksgiving Special Edition
Week 12 brought CHAOS, and Week 13 brings a unique Thanksgiving/Black Friday challenge! Join us as we break down everything you need to know to survive another week, including:
โ Week 12 Carnage Recap
Circa Pool down to just 54 entries!
Commanders knocked out 33 entries
Complete elimination breakdown
๐ฆ Special Holiday Format
Two-pick requirement for Thanksgiving week
Top options for both short-week and weekend games
Christmas week preview
๐ Deep Dive Analysis
Kansas City vs. Las Vegas breakdown
Detroit vs. Chicago analysis
Surprising Buffalo opportunity
Complete tier breakdown of all viable options
๐ฏ Strategy Guide For:
Small pool survivors
Circa Pool participants
Head-to-head matchups
Large pool differentiation plays
๐ฅ BONUS: Future value analysis and optimal paths for different pool sizes
Don’t make your Week 13 pick without watching this comprehensive breakdown! Whether you’re in Circa, a small pool, or playing head-to-head, we’ve got you covered with data-driven analysis and expert strategy.
#NFLSurvivor #NFL #SurvivorPool #NFLPicks #NFLBetting #WeeklyPicks #NFLStrategy #CircaPool #NFLThanksgiving
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๐ Channel: Sharp App: Sports Betting
๐ Channel Country: United States
๐ Tags:
nfl survivor,nfl survivor pool,nfl survivor pool picks,nfl survivor strategy,nfl survivor picks,nfl survivor pool strategy,how to win nfl survivor pool,nfl survivor tips,nfl betting,nfl survivor pools,nfl survivor help,nfl survivor advice,survivor pool picks,survivor pool,expert nfl picks
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Transcript:
Happy Thanksgiving everybody it is week 13 of the NFL I am statal bringing you some of the best analysis in Survivor pools welcome to scratching and Survivor coming up [Music] next all right guys welcome it is scratching and surviving we’re trying to win our survivor pools a bunch of you reached out to me last week and let me know that you won your pool so congratulations and congratulations to any of you watching this who did win your pool or maybe one of the pools that you’re in in and you’re in multiple other ones and um you were able to take it down last week hopefully with some of the advice that you garnered from this Channel and this program I of course am stat stational former professional FX Trader now turned professional DFS player professional sports better and one of the co-founders of the sharp app if you haven’t downloaded the sharp app yet head over to sharp. apppp and use code survive 35 it’ll get you 35% off all right guys we are looking at week 13 we got Thanksgiving coming up tomorrow I record these on Wednesday so Thanksgiving games Thanksgiving games tomorrow and then we’ve got a Black Friday game Friday we’ve got Sunday games the Monday game of course when we look back at week 12 a lot of people knocked out you had Washington knocked a ton of people out in Circa 33 people were knocked out on Washington we had eight people knocked out with Houston you had three on Pittsburgh with the Thursday night game and actually one person did not get their pick in believe it or not in the circuit pool $14.2 million on the line they did not get the pick in so it’s crazy they they’re down to 54 people and in Circa they’re going to have to pick one of these Thanksgiving games or Black Friday games as a its own week and then Sunday as a week so they’ve got two weeks here in one and a lot of people in that pool saved Kansas City for this week so we’re going to see a lot of people on Kansas City this week in Circa but it’s going to be a little bit different for other formats and that’s where the bulk of you guys are uh are in you’re in your own home pools office pools things like that so we’re going to try to help you guys navigate through week 13 and hopefully Beyond unless you take it down this week uh to win your pool so let’s kind of let’s jump in here this week let’s look at what we’ve got going on on the Survivor grid we’ll navigate from there and then head over to the spreadsheet and talk a little bit about what’s going on with the spreadsheet and how that can help us maybe with our picks this week so the the team with the highest win percentage going to be Kansas City 83 and a half% uh big favorites here against Vegas double digit favorites that’s the Friday night game if you still have Kansas City there’s not many people with Kansas City still left some of you took them last week if you were in a a pool uh where you had Kansas City left and you were down to very few people I did want you to take Kansas City last week that may put you behind the eightball depending on what your opponents took this week but that was a chance we had to take it worked for some of you because some of you were able to have Kansas City when others took uh Washington and you won your pool unfortunately if you took Kansas City someone took Miami and they still have Kansas City left they’re going to be alive with a much better option than you have this week that’s just kind of the way it goes but remember in in a head-to-head situation especially I want to just take the best team I possibly can right now because who knows if tomorrow is going to happen if it doesn’t go our way if both teams win uh someone takes a lesser team than the team I’m taking that week and they both win and then they have the advantage on me the following week well so be it I’d rather have the advantage first because we may not get to that second week so if you’re in that boat this week hopefully we can get through it and make our way to week 14 so of course leave the comments down below it’s it’s difficult for me to give these videos um and kind of fit them to one size fits-all for all of you guys we got a ton of comments last week I love it um and also even if you’ve commented before I’m going to forget exactly what teams you guys have left uh so when you put in the comments you let me know exactly what teams you have left and if you’re down to just a couple of people I want to know what they have left also because that’s going to possibly weigh into uh the direction that we go so again Kansas City the Top Choice here this week highest win percentage uh not necessarily the Top Choice in picks they will be in Circ of course in that short week uh slate 81% probability win percentage for Detroit they are a double- digit favorite as well they get the first game tomorrow at home against Chicago you’ve got Buffalo below we didn’t expect this one to be one of the top choices this week or one of the higher win percentages going against San Francisco I mean earlier in the year we could have maybe even anticipated San Francisco being uh if not a favorite a one or twoo underdog now a seven-point dog with the injuries we saw also of note there pay attention when this video comes out it’s on a Wednesday things change dramatically from Wednesday to Saturday we get injuries that happened last week in that Green Bay game against San Francisco and the line moved a few few of you I had you didn’t have many other options all of a sudden Green Bay opened up as an option for you guys and you were able to advance because of that so things will change pay attention stick on Survivor grid uh keep refreshing it it’s going to change pick percentage as the week goes on and also if you have the sharp app even if you’re not a paid member of the sharp app check the sharp app for the lines they are updated uh really quickly based on where the market is and uh you’ll be able to tell look at the money line converted if you don’t know how to convert the money line into a probability I’ve got videos here on our YouTube channel on uh on how to do that so definitely check that out just look up how to convert money lines into implied odds uh implied probabilities and that’ll let you know that’ll that’s going to get you a better win percentage if you look at the midpoint on the sharp app between the two lines and then do the implied probability calculation there they’re very simple uh that’s going to give you the most accurate win percentage number that you can have so keep keep track of that see if any of these lines move as the week goes on right so buffalo against San Francisco again not a game that we necessarily anticipated being uh playing most of you have taken Buffalo already thus the low percentage of Buffalo picks uh as you can see they do have some uh significant value here in the future youve got this New England game coming up in week 16 um the Jets in week 17 and then New England again in week 18 so you’ve got three weeks here where you can potentially take Buffalo if you have not taken them already um if you are in a pool where you’re down to just you and someone else heads up maybe a couple other people if Buffalo is your only option by all means you’re going to want to fire away if you’ve got Kansas City or Detroit and your head’s up I think you absolutely have to take either one of those teams if you have one of them available to you this week you cannot continue to look to push it off to the Future where you can start to look to the future is when you’re close so between a buffalo and Tampa and Washington Denver like these teams are starting to get close and that’s where we have to kind of look if those are our own only options do we will we need any one of these teams if we had a couple of choices to make between these two teams uh two teams in this group and I’ll throw Houston in there as well let’s kind of sort this by the win percentage you know if you throw Houston in there uh and we’re getting a little sketchier when we get to Dallas but let’s just say you’ve got an option between Tampa Washington Denver Houston and you’ve got two of these teams then you’re going to want to look to the Future and do we need these teams in the future now you very well may need Tampa next week if you have no other options here and you’re in a a pool down to very few people I want you to just go ahead and fire at the best possible team you have left but like I said if you have no other options here for next week if you’ve taken Philly already if you don’t have Cincinnati if you don’t have Pittsburgh um then you may have to hold off on Tampa if you’ve got an option for week 14 then by all means go ahead and take Tampa now the other consideration to make here especially if you’re in a pool of a little bit more size uh but even if you’ve got 10 people or so in your pool if you’ve got other options we can look to maybe fade Tampa because they are going they are going to get a lot of attention this week we do have other opportunities in the future and the immediate future in week 14 this is going to be really determinant upon your pool I think the the message I always like to get out to you guys is try and be as optimal as you possibly can in plotting out the next two or three weeks if you are in a small pool 10 people left 15 people left whatever it is stay as optimal as we can that does not guarantee that you’re going to win but I’d rather other people take chances let them you know if someone has Kansas City or Detroit left and they don’t take them this week and they’re down to six seven people in the pool that’s just idiotic at that point right because we just may not get to week 14 15 and and you may not need them again anyway so I would imagine most people with those options will take them that’s why I want to know who your opponents have left but the only decisions we’re really going to have to make this week is when we get to these teams that are close and and then the tiebreaker is really going to be can we use this team again so we’re not necessarily looking to hold teams for for the future but if everything all things being uh equal and close then that’s when we have to start looking at that but Tampa the other option like I said the other thing to look at is this 21% win uh uh pick percentage and that’s going to change that’s why you got to update Survivor grid look at it all the way up until the time you have to get your pick in um and this week’s a little tricky because we’ve got some really good games here on Thursday and Friday that you may want to pick but if you’re not capable of or you’re not taking one of those games and you are allowed to put your pick in over the weekend just keep an eye on this number it may change but as of right now if you have another option off of Tampa you might want to go ahead if you had Washington Denver Houston you may want to take one of these other teams because of the fact that and I don’t know why this is not sorting there we go I think I did something to missor I must have changed it but um if you’ve got the Washington Denver Houston Dallas maybe not as much and we’ll see if that line moves but if you have one of those options that would be um something to consider because a lot of people are going to be on Tampa all right I did mention Dallas let’s talk about them just briefly here uh Dallas not a lot of future value really no future value potentially at Carolina week 15 let’s look at that week 15 here quickly you’re going to have some options I think most of you probably don’t have Baltimore maybe you don’t have Minnesota left you probably do have Arizona available you may have Cincinnati available to to you Atlanta available to you like you’re going to have some options here Denver if you have none of these teams then you got to be careful using Denver this week if you don’t have another option then go ahead and take Denver this week in smaller pools especially um against Cleveland but you’re going to have some options here in week 15 that I think most of you will have the ability to take uh let’s just look at week 14 you’ve got Philly’s going to be a big favorite obviously home against Carolina Tampa as we just mentioned they do have value here in week 14 so be careful taking Tampa in week 13 if you have nowhere else to go if you don’t have Cincinnati Pittsburgh uh Miami which a lot of you have taken already um if you don’t have these teams available in San Francisco we just don’t know what the status will be as far as injuries go so we got to be careful there um you really got to play this one out based on your pool exactly what you have left and I can help you with that of course down in the comments all right let’s just look at the spreadsheet you know the thing with the the pool at this stage it gets more difficult in the sense that you’re you’re going to be picking teams for the most part as we move to these these future weeks that have a lower probability of winning than maybe you have in the last uh you know in the earlier weeks for sure so in that sense it becomes more difficult but our decisions actually become easier in the sense where we don’t have as many options it becomes a lot clearer as to which path we need to take so it’s not necessarily that we know who’s going to win we just have to get lucky like Washington losing to last week to Dallas if you had Washington and you lost that game it’s just un it’s it’s just not being lucky right I mean none of these games are are foolproof 85% 86% chance here for Kansas City to win that means they will lose this game 14% of the time not going to happen all the time it could happen um and when it does of course you know chaos ensues but we we want to get ourselves if you got yourself to a position and by the way I uh I got to fix this there we go back to the 18% and I’ll show you I’ll change that in a second just to show you guys how it changes the threshold but if you get yourself in a position where you you potentially have a double digigit favorite in your week uh and you’re in week 12 13 14 and you can pick a double- digit favorite at that point in the season in your Survivor pool and you lose I mean that’s just it it’s the luck of the draw it is what it is we can’t know exactly who’s going to win we just want to try to put ourselves in the best possible situations to win and part of doing that as well is when you are in situations where you’ve got three people four people five people left that’s where you can start to take maybe a lesser team if you know all the other participants in your pool are going to be on the same team that’s where this threshold column really comes in now the reason I had this up at 70% was because I was looking at it for those of you in Circa where I said you know if this goes up to 70% where in that small little week um of people who can take um the small the small window there of people who can take uh or the small the short week I should say of people who can take uh the Kansas City and a lot of people will be you may get potentially 70% of people in that small pool or in that pool with just the four weeks you may get some of those people taking uh Kansas City or a lot of those people taking Kansas City could be upwards of 70% in which case you’d have to have a team 65% or or higher which would bring Dallas in to play which is a Thanksgiving game for those of you so just keep that in mind you’re going to need about you have to estimate about 70% of people on this Kansas City game if you’re in Circa before I would suggest getting off of Kansas City and getting down to Dallas could be an interesting play I know in the past in Circus some people have actually taken an underdog against the big favorite and it’s won on Thanksgiving and of course that is a massive massive leverage play for those of you in Reg pools here though just keep in mind it’s going to take a lot more uh a lot more entries on one specific team the more uh incentive you have to get off of that team and take another team and maybe get away from the optimal play ideally we can’t win this pool at least by ourselves unless we’re in a situation we’re the only team left standing or the only entry left standing to be the only entry left standing you at some point have to be different than your opponent and if you’ve got multiple opponents and you have the ability even if they have have a strong team like Kansas City so if you have four people left in your pool obviously that’s going to knock uh if three people take them that’s 75% of people you could virtually take anyone else any of these other favorites here as a potential play and give yourself a shot even with four people left I know it it’s you’re down to just a very few amount of people you still only have a 25% chance to win your pool so you’re trying to pick a spot where you can um be the only one on a side now of course is very difficult to figure out but sometimes we can get a good guess based on how people have picked in the past and what they have left as to um how many people are going to take a particular team again it’s hard I’m kind of talking in the abstract I can talk specifically to your pool when we look at uh when we look at it when you guys leave me the comments down below so I I’ll look forward to seeing those this week as we getting down to the nitty-gritty um but when you look at this with 0% future value of course that always shows the teams with the highest probability to win as the best options uh I mentioned this threshold column again this is based on as these numbers increase for each one of these teams as win percentage increases this number goes up as pick percentage increases this number goes down so the more people picking a team the uh easier it is to fade them right so in most pools you can fade Tampa if you’re in a large pool I think fading Tampa is not a bad option if if you have Dallas a lot of people are doing that here with uh with Dallas a lot of people taking them because they don’t have a lot of future value so we talked a lot about smaller pools in a larger pool here’s where I would get behind Dallas in a larger pool if I had Kansas City Detroit or Buffalo available to me available to me and Dallas then I might consider holding on to one of these teams where most people um are going to exhaust these uh Kansas City Detroit Buffalo they will be exhausted by the time we get to the next few weeks you’ll still have them available if you can survive with Dallas this is for very large pools which some of you are still in you’ve got to get a little bit contrarian uh with your play if one of these big teams goes down including Tampa uh here then you can of course pick up some equity on the pool so that’s where I would consider Dallas um excuse me and also obviously if they’re the only option you have and you’ve you’ve used all of these other teams available um that have a higher win percentage so it’s going to be interesting whether or not you take Dallas in your pool whether it’s really a viable option um Tampa you really want to try to avoid Tampa if you can if it’s the only option you have and it was an option I suggested to a lot of you based on the teams you had left then obviously a lot of people have taken similar paths and have taken similar teams which is why Tampa is a team available to a lot of people if it’s the only option you have left and by all means you’re going to want to take it um but it’s going to really matter as far as what teams you guys have left so like you see when we move to 25% Denver actually becomes the third choice here and if I go back to the surviv driver grid just to show you you know Denver shows up as the third choice because they have very little future value but if you look at the sheet the reason they have little future value is because they’re playing Kansas City they’re going to be a dog there they’re at the Chargers um at Cincinnati so they’ve got some tough games but they’ve actually got the easiest games of this 65 to 70% uh win percentage group in that Indianapolis game the thing is that week 15 I showed you earlier we’ve really got a lot of options in week 15 so I really don’t I’m not too worried about Washington Denver Houston about their future games um if they’re my only options I’m going to take them if I have them as an option and Tampa of course I’m taking one of those other teams because I could take Tampa here next week most likely so really at this point in the season we’re for the most most pools we’re trying to be as optimal as we possibly can which means looking out to week 14 15 and even in larger pools we want to look all the way out to week 18 and try to map our way uh to the finish line and see if we can get a little contrarian here hopefully pick up on the pool and be able to win it’s those are the type of pools where we’re going to probably not win it all by ourselves we’re going to split it but we want to be able to split with the fewest amount of people possible we also want to be able to survive so we don’t want to get too crazy but to win the pool like that uh we may have to get a little bit contrarian so that is kind of the overview of what we’ve got going on this week um of course leave your comments down below I will help you guys as much as I can I wish I knew who was going to win these games but we don’t but we can try and get you on the most optimal path possible all right guys that is it for me this week I hope you all enjoy your Thanksgiving I appreciate you guys uh a ton being here with me each and every week it’s amazing that this Survivor video has been even more popular in the last few weeks when most Survivor videos have stopped running or uh lose quite a bit of viewership as the weeks go on because those of you in these pools continue to lose week in week out we start uh losing people from pools and thus these videos become less popular so I really appreciate while you guys are still here if you can help me out and help out the sharp app by downloading the sharp app sub uh subscribing to these videos I’ve got a really cool podcast that’s going to be coming out that I think you guys will be interested in it’s for not just for sports bets it’s going to be sports betting um kind of related content but we’re going to be taking some people in different industries that may be of interest to those in sports betting people who are uh experts in Risk psychology authors professors things like that as well as some people in the sports betting world so I think you guys are going to be really interested in that and if you subscribe and like these videos of course it’s going to help out in the algorithm so that when we start uh showing these these and recording and then showing the uh the podcast here on YouTube you guys will be notified of when that happens so again I appreciate all of you guys I’m thankful for you all and I hope hope you all enjoy tomorrow’s Thanksgiving dinner with your families and uh I will see you hopefully back next week if you guys win be sure to let me now good luck everybody see you next week
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