📅 Published on: 2024-12-11 15:24:10
⏱ Duration: 00:24:45 (1485 seconds)
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📊 Survivor Pool Strategy Week 15 NFL 2023 | Expert Betting Analysis & Tips
Join Statsational as we break down Week 15 NFL Survivor Pool picks and strategy. Learn why Baltimore Ravens are the top choice this week and discover crucial hedging opportunities with the Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons Monday Night Football matchup.
🏈 Key Topics Covered:
Week 15 NFL Survivor Pool Analysis
Baltimore Ravens betting outlook
Hedging strategies for Survivor Pools
Monday Night Football hedging opportunities
Vikings vs Falcons betting analysis
Sports betting market efficiency
Circa Survivor Pool update ($14.2M prize pool, 51 entries remaining)
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
you survived week 14 in your NFL Survivor pools we’ve got week 15 covered for you coming up next it’s scratching and [Music] surviving all right guys I am stat stational former professional FX Trader turn professional sports better and professional DFS player and of course the co-founder of the sharp app if you have not checked out the sharp app and you are interested at all in sports betting I implore you to go ahead and head over to sharp. apppp download the app today use code survive 35 code survive 35 is going to get you 35% off our Pro subscription I do think it is well worth it if you are a sports better also guys I’ve got a brand new podcast we just recorded the last uh the first episode yesterday I’ve got some really interesting guests if you are at all interested in sports betting even if you’re not interested in sports betting if you’re interested in the markets any sort sort of risk-taking I’ve got I’ve got uh authors professors psychologists those involved in sports betting some not involved in sports betting and there’s just going to be some really interesting conversations that I think a lot of people from all different um walks and all different interests will be interested in this podcast the podcast is called better thinking and you’ll be able to get it right here on the sharp app channel so give us a subscribe and you can always click the notifications to be be able to find out when that podcast drops really looking forward to it enjoying it I’m going to learn a whole lot and I think you guys will as well all right for Survivor last week it almost was chaotic and it didn’t quite get there Philly right down to the goal line there um or almost to the goal line almost in the end zone was Carolina the uh ball looked like it was a catch and then upon further review was not so um Philly just hangs on by the skin of their teeth to be able to survive against Carolina Carolina has scared us the last uh in the in the last few weeks a couple of times once against Kansas City and now of course uh and actually against Tampa as well so three times there and now against Philly but they were not able to um kind of put either of those teams away and pull out the late Victory here against Philly and Philly survived so we don’t get the big upset last week you look at Circa 51 remaining survivors there they lost one on Tennessee we did mention Tennessee last week potentially for you guys in really large pools but like I said if you are in that large pool you can almost get the same bang for your buck or more bang for your buck actually and get the same thing the same effect by taking a New Orleans team that was picked only slightly more than Tennessee but was a larger favorite now New Orleans another team that barely got by but if you did listen to that advice took New Orleans you’re in pretty good shape there having eliminated a team that you’re likely not going to want to take again um and it almost worked out really well with of course Philly getting knocked out you would have picked up quite a bit of equity without having to have taken one of the top teams and then Philly of course is going to be a team that we may want to take here or most likely if you did save them you’re going to have them lined up for uh one of these future weeks week 17 probably and possibly week 18 but we’ll get into that in a bit the other thing at this point of the Season that we always want to look at and we should have been looking at this for the last few weeks I know a lot of you guys who do watch the show are cognizant of it you guys ask down below but hedging at this point in the season is becoming more and more of a factor hedging is something that you want to do when you get down to few people left in your pool or at least you want to consider when there’s few people left in your pool but there’s two variables there it’s not just the amount of people left in the pool it’s also the time that remains in your pool so there’s two different factors there when you have the fewer amount of people left in your pool of course that means that you have more Equity so the more Equity you have in your pool the greater the hedging opportunity becomes but also time is a factor because we have a finite amount of time we know now there’s only four weeks left so when you have the amount of weeks left are8 nine 10 weeks it becomes a lot more difficult to hedge in those situations the reason being is because if we continually lose our our hedge bet we are constantly doubling that hedge just to get the Hedge bet back and we’re not actually making any money which is the whole purpose of the Hedge bet so the fewer weeks we have the easier it is it does it’s always going to be a an exponential increase or assuming that you’re doubling your bet your hedge bet each week which you may not necessarily be doing um but we could potentially be exponentially increasing our which of course uh multiplies that hedge bet significantly once we get to that fourth fifth sixth week to the point where now you’re you’re risking more than the pool is even worth in some instances so it’s important as we get down to just the final few weeks here that the hedging becomes a lot more conf we can have more confidence in our hedge bet think about it this way if we were down to week 18 and you were the the only one on the last game and of course in week 18 um everyone sort of plays at the same times the teams that need to play the divisional games and whatnot they play them all at the same time so that there’s no staggering and teams uh can’t see what their opponents that they’re competing with for playoff spots have done so that everybody’s kind of playing um to win but let’s just assume that you can you were the only one left on a game and there was only one week left or this was the last week and you were the last one left and you knew exactly what your opponents had done of course you’ve got all the information in the world you have every piece of information you possibly need if you had $10,000 in your pot and there was one other person in your in your pool and they won their game and now it was up to your game well you know exactly what you need you need to win your game just to split the pot so you know if you win you’re going to get 5,000 you know if you lose you’re going to get nothing you’re going to lose whatever your entry was if the same situation that person that you’re competing with lost well then you know if you win you’re going to win 10 ,000 and if you lose you’re going to win 5,000 because presumably if you both lose on that last weekend they’re going to chop the pot and you’re going to win 5,000 right so you have all that information you know what all the scenarios are and it becomes much easier to make a hedge BET right so as we get closer to that final week and that final game your hedging opportunities are going to become a lot clearer to you so we’re getting to that point here where it is clearing up and you really want to consider hedge bets as you get uh to a high Equity low amount of people remaining in your pool the other thing with hedge bet I kind of alluded to it there if you can have the latest game possible it gives you more information so we want to try and hedge games that are or at least pick games that are on the Monday night or Sunday night schedule for that reason now we’re not going to just solely look at those games and not and disregard all the other games if there’s better games for us to take but if we’re close and we’re not sure between a couple of teams and one is playing late one plays early I would would always lean towards that later team for hedging purposes now this week you’ve got Minnesota playing Chicago that is a Monday night game there’s actually two Monday night games this week that is one of them and then Atlanta at Vegas is the other Monday night game so both could potentially be games that you may take certainly Minnesota will be taken by a decent amount of people you could see here on Survivor grid we’ve got 133% of the people taking Minnesota you may be one of them and like I said if you’ve got an option between a couple of teams maybe you’re thinking between Arizona and Minnesota you might want to lean towards Minnesota just because of that hedging opportunity plus they they do have a higher win percentage but it’s obviously is going to depend on your pool how many people you have left in the pool and of course the teams that you have available to you and potentially the teams available to your opponents as well so a lot goes into what we’re looking at and who we’re going to take I know most people look at Survivor pools we’re just trying to pick the team that we think is going to win you guys know I’m not always looking or not I’m not necessarily ever looking for the team I think is going to win I’m taking the teams I’m looking at the math I’m looking at the teams with the higher win probability and then I’m playing some game theory here and the game theory is going to come into play really significantly as we get down to fewer teams so if you’re in a heads up situation we’re always looking for that heads up situation to be able to take the most optimal path possible I tell you guys this every week if we dive into this week maybe things will clear up a little bit here we can see Baltimore is the largest favorite this week matter of fact the largest favorite we’ve seen all season and they’re on the road at the Giants we’ve seen the Giants just look abysmal so far so if you have Baltimore it’s going to be very difficult for you to pass up on Baltimore now certainly if you in any pool of uh that is low in size I I can’t see a situation here where you’d want to pass up on Baltimore they’re just too big of a favorite here you just kind of take that free Square move on to next week and we’ll figure it out from there but the only time that we’re looking to maybe fade these big team like Philly last week is possibly in a large pool but even in a large pool if you’ve got Baltimore available to you I I’d have a really hard time getting away from Baltimore this week now when you’re in that heads up situation let’s go over to the actually to the spreadsheet and look at it you know when you’re in a heads up situation we’re looking for the teams with the higher win percentage and that’s not always going to be the team with the higher win percentage this week the optimal path maybe you have to take a team that doesn’t necessarily have the highest win percentage next week because you need them in the following week or the week after um that could be the case but in this scenario here this week we’ve got such a significant a 90% chance here that Baltimore is going to win their game and what I wanted to show you is the threshold column at 84% that’s 42.4% of the picks on Baltimore with that number you would need to pick a team 84% or better win percentage in order for that team to be worth it or in order for Baltimore to be worth a fade so it’s very significant um that level there now if you’re in a pool it’s going to be hard to imagine a lot that you’re going to have much more than this basically everyone who’s got Baltimore left is going to take them this week now you may be down to three people in your pool and all of you have Baltimore left in which case Okay potentially you could look to fade that team let’s say you had three people left we would change this number to 67% because now you’re saying that uh two out of the three are definitely going to take Baltimore but look at this it’s still 75% you need to have a team that would a win percentage better than 7 5% there really only Washington you know Minnesota is close and these numbers aren’t exact right we there’s a lot of science behind it but there’s an art to it as well so what this is saying is even if two out of three people in your pool are going to take Baltimore I would still be very hesitant about fading them the threshold here is close to 75% so we’ll bring this back to where Survivor grid has it at and you know that 83 84% number is just too great for me to be looking to f let’s just head back to Survivor GD let’s look at what we’ve got going on now not everyone obviously is going to have the uh the Ravens here this week you’ve got Washington a team that almost everyone has taken which is why they’re only being picked 4% of the time if you do not have Baltimore Washington’s going to be a great option you’re going to have a lot of Leverage over the field uh someone asked me in the comments what Leverage is and The Leverage is basically um it’s sort of like the EV column here on Survivor grid anything over one is considered to be plus EV and under one is negative it’s when you’re able to be able to pick a team that the that is low that has a low percentage um or pick against a team with a high percentage you’re getting leverage against the field um because the potential for you to be able to pick up a lot of equity that week is there so what we’ve got is we’ve got a potential leverage play if you somehow still have Washington available there have been several weeks where most people have wanted to take Washington if you are one of the people who do have them left it’s going to be very hard to uh convince me to get off of Washington it’s going to really depend on your other teams here but if you have them just because of the fact that most people will not Washington’s going to be a very strong play again their next best week here is probably week 18 at Dallas but I’ve warned you guys in the past the one thing about week 18 we’ve got to be really really care careful about saving teams for week 18 you want to look ahead to week 16 week 17 absolutely week 18 we’ve got to take with a grain of salt we don’t know what teams are going to clinch who are going to play starters who will not be playing starters uh potential injuries of course in the next few weeks so you you have to be careful now I’m not saying not to map it out but be prepared things may change going into week 18 and teams that we just don’t expect to be taking in week 18 May suddenly become a pretty good play as a team that is going to the playoffs May just sit and bench a lot of their starters so we’ll we’ll you know we’ll kind of deal with week 18 when we get there so Washington not getting a whole lot of uh of pick percentage of course because they’ve been used quite a bit Minnesota I mentioned 133% of pools are taking Minnesota and a team that you really have to consider especially for that hedging opportunity they are playing the Monday night game they’re seven-point favorite here 73% chance to win 133% pick percentage so keep Minnesota in mind we don’t have a real another opportunity you’re not going to want to take them at Seattle Green Bay at home or at Detroit so this is your last chance if you do have Minnesota again this is all kind of contingent on the fact that you don’t have Baltimore and then we’re going to look at these other teams kind of against each other because Baltimore is in A League of Their Own this week but if you’ve got Minnesota again a hard time taking against them especially in a small pool if I have a chance to hedge um if I have Minnesota and Washington I might lean towards Washington especially with more people in the pool just because the fact that um few will have me actually even with few people left in the pool um if you’re in a heads up situation you literally want to wait until the last possible moment if you had a choice between Washington and Minnesota they’re very close right now as far as win percentage you want to wait until you absolutely have to put the the pick in and see if these lines change all you want to do is get the higher win percentage the I I know yeah a lot of people who play these pools and even people who gamble but people who play the pools aren’t necessarily those who are sports betting and you say well these lines don’t always hold true that is of course accurate but they’re very close so the the win percentage over time is going to be the the same as the actual win percentage so the win percentage that is put on by the betting markets is going to be extremely close over time to what the actual win percentage is it’s the same thing as if you were flipping a coin or if you were picking cards out of a deck that you have a one in 52 chance of picking any card over the short term of course you can you may never pick that Ace of Diamonds if you keep saying I’m GNA pick an ace of diamonds here um I’ve got a one 52 chance of picking it in the short term you may never see that but if we do this tens of thousands of times you’re going to pick that ace of diamonds on the top of the deck the ace of diamonds will be sitting there one out of every 52 you flip a the coin the same thing okay we may flip five six seven heads in a row in maybe 20 flips but that’s going to balance out and um I shouldn’t even say in a row what I should say is let’s say we we flip a coin 20 times you may get 15 heads and five tows in that 20 flips it’s not necessarily going to land exactly 50/50 but if we do it 10,000 times it’s going to be really close within a flip or two of being 50/50 because the probability ities over a long long period of time with a large sample will kind of fall into place and be exactly um what the probabilities are that we expect now we don’t necessarily see that in sports but trust me we’ve got something it’s called the wisdom of the crowds and we’ve got a highly liquid Market in the NFL and uh let me quickly explain wisdom of the crowds we actually talked about this on the podcast uh with the Joseph bookall who is a sports analyst Sports uh data analyst and we were talking about wisdom of the crowds it’s a great book I’ve read the book If you haven’t um I highly suggest it but in the book what they’re talking about the Wiz the crowd is smarter than the average person than not just the average person than the individual person right so the crowd um the more people and the more independent thoughts going into whatever the guess is and in this case the guess is who’s going to win this game the more independent thought and the the more of the um the more liquid the market in this case the more accurate that win percentage is going to be which is why it’s extremely difficult as far as a better is concerned to beat that so your goal as a better is to be better than the the masses and to be able to accurately predict at a higher percentage that Baltimore if you knew if Baltimore here is 89.1% and you thought that number was actually 80% they should win this game 80% of the time as a sports bet then you would be betting against Baltimore here right so you’re not betting against them with the anticipation that you think they’re going to lose the game you’re just betting against them that you know if they played this game 10,000 times and your model was more accurate than the entire Market you’re going to win um over time you’re going to win on that bet so you don’t really necessarily think that going into that game you’re going to win that game you just see value on that play and that’s what professional sports betters are doing they’re looking for value at all times even if they know the bets probably not going to win just like with the cards if I said I’ll give you um I’ll pay you 200 to one to guess what the top card is on that deck well you’ll take the bet but you’re probably not going to guess the top card on that deck you’re not going to be right right you’ve got a one in 52 chance of getting that right but if we play this over time you’re going to be profitable and that’s what we do in sports betting so kind of went through that whole thing just because people argue with me a lot about um you know the win percentage is not the the ultimate we should be handicapping these games on our own well if you’re good enough to handicap the games at a higher percentage than the market is then go ahead there’s very few people who could do that so you really want to take What’s called the wisdom of the crowd take all that knowledge that’s coming in from the crowd from the market and use that to your advantage so that’s why I tell you guys when you’re down to few people in the pool let’s look at the market let’s take it right at the last possible moment and if you have the sharp app guys even for free you can see the sharp on the sharp app you’ll get all the sports books in there um you’ll be able to see where the market is at on your phone in the app and it’s an accurate upto-date market and you’ll be able to see the money line there and where what the percentage is of that team uh winning the game and you’re going to want to use that information right before you put in your entry okay and that is going to be over time just as accurate as a coin flip is going to come out 50% and just as accurate as picking the top card correctly is going to be one out of 52 you have to trust me on this over time it’s it’s more accurate than just about anyone unless you’ve got a model that’s better than that um I would stick to win percentage all right so we’ve got Washington Minnesota Minnesota again the Hedge opportunity there Arizona another team potentially maybe you could take them next week but we’ve got a lot of options in week 16 it’s going to depend on who you have left but hosting New England you got to kind of like him in that game it’s only five and a half points um Cincinnati’s at Tennessee road game Tennessee has they were looking better they lose last week to Jacksonville who knows what you’re going to get from either Cincinnati or Tennessee but there is a good chance that you do have Cincinnati left so potential pick we’ve got a lot of teams here in that 60 you know 66 even 64% all the way up to uh Washington at 75% that are potential picks here Cincinnati’s getting almost 7% of the picks obviously Arizona a team that not a lot of people have taken that’s why they’re getting 22% of the picks right now some lesser picked teams Atlanta um against Vegas at Vegas again that’s a Monday night game depending on who you have left you could potentially be looking at that as a potential head situation you’ve got Philly um which almost everyone who has Philly has almost everyone’s taken Philly already as we know last week for those few of you who held on to Philly because you wanted to kind of go else and I know there’s some of you in the comments who did that because you in pools that are very large worked out well for you unfortunately it would have worked out even better if Philly would have lost but Philly gets Pittsburgh this week not a game that we’re going to necessarily want to take you certainly didn’t hold Philly for this week if you could have taken them last week so most people as you see 0 2% almost no one’s going to take Philly in your pool but we’ve got eye ahead to that week 17 match up at home with Dallas Kansas City at Cleveland just not going to be taken much and then Denver Indianapolis you can go down the list just none of these teams are going to be taken all that much we’ll go quickly over to the spreadsheet and again we don’t really want to get too deep into the spreadsheet anymore the spreadsheet becomes less important this threshold column becomes extremely important the rest of it becomes a little less important here as we get closer to the end of the season because now we’re going to kind of map it out this future value doesn’t mean what it really um all that much anymore because there’s not that much of a future left but you see when we have it at zero the top two teams Baltimore and Washington currently this may flip Minnesota may flip with Washington like I said let’s keep an eye on those lines I know you guys want to see it I anyway let’s move it to 25% again it’s not going to change it much because we don’t have that much future value these teams become a lot closer in future value because there’s not that much future value left when we get to 100 let’s see if it changes at all and you’ll see Arizona of course becomes a popular play uh because they do not have much future value left but again we don’t need the spreadsheet necessarily to tell us that Denver interestingly becomes the third choice uh again another team with very little future left a lot of you took Denver maybe um a week ago or two weeks ago and that was a smart move we did that because we were anticipating the fact that just Denver was not going to have a lot of future value which they do not and you can see on this list uh and on the spreadsheet not garnering a whole lot of future value so we’ve uh we’ve gone over quite a bit of information I’m hoping that you guys can take that info and you use it to at least get yourself some Equity back in the way of hedging and if not of course the main goal is to survive in your pool advance and let’s get this thing all the way to your to the finish line of course leave a comment down below you guys I’ll be getting comments five minutes after this post which is fantastic leave your comments we’ll walk it through we’ll talk it through together and um hopefully a lot of you are going to take your pools down this week that’s what my hope and if you don’t you’ll Advance you’ll get a little bit closer maybe uh pick up some equity and get one step closer to winning your pool this week all right guys that is it for me give us a like give us a subscribe download the sharp app and I will see you next week on scratching and surviving
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