📅 Published on: 2024-12-04 18:14:26
⏱ Duration: 00:16:29 (989 seconds)
👀 Views: 315 | 👍 Likes: 34
📝 Video Description:
After a Week 13 that nearly gave us all heart attacks, we’re breaking down everything you need to know for Week 14 survival! Join us for:
📊 Week 13 Recap
How Detroit, KC, and Tampa Bay survived close calls
Circa Pool update: 52 survivors remaining
Special split-week aftermath
🦅 Week 14 Complete Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles: The obvious play?
Threshold analysis and contrarian strategies
Full breakdown of secondary options
💯 Detailed Strategy For:
Top 5 teams by win percentage
Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Miami, Minnesota, Cincinnati analysis
Future value considerations
Large pool differentiation plays
🔥 SPECIAL FOCUS:
End-game strategy
Contrarian plays for large pools
Why Tennessee might be this week’s surprise play
Optimal paths for different pool sizes
Don’t make your Week 14 pick without watching this comprehensive breakdown! Whether you’re in Circa, fighting for a massive pool victory, or just trying to survive another week, we’ve got the analysis you need.
#NFLSurvivor #NFL #SurvivorPool #NFLPicks #NFLBetting #WeeklyPicks #NFLStrategy #CircaPool #EaglesGet
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🎙 Channel: Sharp App: Sports Betting
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
you are so close to winning your Survivor pool you can taste it it is week 14 in the NFL we’re trying to survive all the way to the Finish Line on scratching and surviving coming up [Music] next welcome everybody once again to scratching and surviving I am statal from the sharp app former professional FX Trader turn professional sports better and DFS player and bringing you the sharp app as one of the co-founders if you haven’t checked out the sharp app yet head over to sharp. apppp download it use code survive 35 it’s going to get you 35% off we got some great things coming up in the very near future with the sharp app but it’s pretty impressive as it stands on its own so we’ve got a lot of good stuff in there also got a podcast that is going to be coming out uh I believe we’re going to start in January releasing episodes I’ve got some uh interesting guests not just in the Sports World not just in the sport Sports gambling World we’ve got professors authors psychologists economists Traders we’re going to have a just a variety of people in here that are going to be attractive for you guys who are interested in sports betting in these type of pools that I think it’s going to change the way you think perhaps or at least expand upon your thinking maybe give you some new ideas in your own sports betting and uh hopefully we’ll keep it entertaining and informational for you guys so be sure to subscribe here um to this Channel and you’ll get updates on when those podcasts will be released all right for this week week 14 let’s kind of recap week 13 if you were in Circa you had to pick those Thanksgiving games that got a little sketchy you had Detroit maybe I don’t want to say they should have lost but certainly that game should have went to overtime Chicago just unfathomable what they did there down the stretch with 30 seconds to go you had the Kansas City game on Friday they may very well may have uh should have lost their game uh at the very least could have so you had the two biggest pick teams in cira both of which had a chance to go down did not and then if you were in Circa uh and surviv that Thanksgiving those Thanksgiving games you had to of course win either Sunday or Monday and that wasn’t all that easy either as Tampa was a very popular pick and Tampa went right down to the wire fumble in overtime there from Carolina when they were going in to get the winning field goal and uh Tampa winds up Surviving so crazy week potentially turned into a very very sane and safe week only two people go down in Circa most likely in your pools many of you are still surviving you probably did not win your pool last week if you were down to head-to-head in all likelihood you won and so did your opponent so on to week 14 we go and we see right away on Survivor grid we’ve got a massive favor we’ve been looking ahead to this game uh for a few weeks now most of you have taken Philadelphia which is why only 23% of entries are on Philly if you saved Philly for this point and you are in a small pool and almost any pool really I want you take in Philadelphia this week I think you absolutely have to if we’re in pools with a little bit more entries in there um maybe 100 plus we can consider starting to look elsewhere as we get to 500 600 then I’d almost suggest gu maybe looking elsewhere because let’s look at the future here we’ve got the week 17 matchup for Philly with Dallas by the time we get there now if you’re in a head-to-head matchup the reason I don’t even want to look at that is because who’s to say if we’re going to get to week 17 if we get there we’ll worry about that at that time most likely our opponents use Philadelphia at this point if not they’re using them this week so if we have the option to use Philly we absolutely have to take them this week and then worry about week 17 just like my opponent will have to do in week 17 not going to worry about that now but if I’m in a large pool where there may be 500 6 700 people left in all likelihood that’s going to be a massive chop all the way through week 18 you’re going to have to survive all of the rest of the weeks of the season in order to get a piece of that pot and perhaps it’s just you know if we chopped it at where you’re at right now it’s not g it’s not going to be all that uh all that beneficial you may win some money which is great we want to try to at least win some money in these pools but when you enter a Survivor pool we’re looking to take down the big prize so in maybe in that scenario I could look to fade Philadelphia this week uh with one of these other teams depending on who I have available to me and then save Philadelphia for week 17 the only time I’m doing that again is in a much larger pool any small pools even you know 50 people left 40 people left whatever it is it’s going to be real difficult for me to get off of Philadelphia if I have them now if I get down to I don’t have Philadelphia when I get down to that second tier let’s jump actually over into the uh let’s jump into the spreadsheet and take a look at that and you can see you know my numbers are always going to be a little bit different on win probability I get this right off the sharp app I take the midpoint of the money lines to come up with the win probability it’s just simply implied implied odds implied probability based off the the money lines Okay so we’ve basically got a tier here from 69% to 72% this second tier of teams they’re all going to be really close these lines are going to change as the week goes on we know this and you know Cincinnati now may be the the weakest team from a win percentage or win probability standpoint of this group that may change they may be the second or third team uh By the time Sunday rolls around so you’re going to want to keep an eye always on the betting markets a lot of you going to ask me questions it’s going to be in here like who do you like uh you know do you like Pittsburgh or Minnesota or you know Pittsburgh Minnesota or Cincinnati pick one of them um you know it’s going to really be it’s it’s going to really depend a lot on the line and also how many people you have left in your pool and as you can see a lot of people still can pick Pittsburgh so we’ve got 25 and a half percent of entries going in on Pittsburgh um so if you do have the option to maybe take one of these other teams I think the first thing I would really look at is well how much is that team being taken on Survivor grid and I would try to fade that that would be one of my tie Breakers considering these teams are all fairly close uh one of my tiebreakers is going to be that pick percentage so I’m going to be looking at Minnesota Cincinnati New Orleans is the lower pick teams of this group and then the other thing I want to look at is heading back to the Survivor grid is what’s the future look like for each one of these teams it’s hard on the spreadsheet to really determine the future value because it could be um weighted heavily one side or the other if they have a if if a team would um has a future game where they’re going to be a heavy favorite in just one of them and and a dog in all the other games that’s going to skew things or if they’re going to be a heavy dog in just about all of their games but they may be a four fiveo favorite in one of them that would skew things uh the opposite way as well so we got to really kind of hone in and look at the games on the schedule in all formats at this point because now even in a head-to-head we just want to make sure we’re mapping out that we don’t handcuff ourselves here in week 15 or 16 in a head-to-head situation especially when we’ve got so many options potentially depending on who you have left in your pool so you’re going to really want to look at the next few weeks always at this point so where I’m looking here with let’s just start with Pittsburgh we’ve got Cleveland this week at home touchdown favorite when am I going to take them again doesn’t look like I really their most likely chance is week 17 at home against Kansas City I don’t think anyone’s going to love that pick all that much having to do that and then you say okay well they’re home against Cincinnati in week 18 I want you to be careful I mentioned we want to look ahead at the future be careful looking ahead to week 18 in all likelihood well not in all likelihood but in a lot of situations you’re going to have teams not playing for anything they may lock their playoff position in in week 18 and you just don’t know if they’re going to play their starters or not uh obviously the potential for injuries by the time we get to week 18 but you got to be careful saving a team for week 18 you see Buffalo’s got their at New England in week 18 there’s no telling if Buffalo is going to be playing their starters in that game so if you had Buffalo and you were saving them and you don’t take him in week 16 uh against New England you’re saving them for week 18 that week 18 game may not come so I’m basically going to toss out the Giants against Philly and I’m just looking at this as Philly has one more chance uh week 17 against Dallas at home Tampa is the other situation here that you want to look at Carolina at home week 17 sure that’s a great spot um to take Tampa they just beat Tampa on the the road although probably or they just be Carolina on the road probably should have lost that game but we’re going to certainly like them in a a lot more at home by the time we get to that game most people will have taken Tampa already so if I had an option of course that would be something I look if I had Tampa and Pittsburgh available to me well I’m going to lean more towards Pittsburgh here because they don’t have much in the way of future value and that’s why they are getting a lot of the pick percentage the highest so far 25 and a half% people can take p and they’re unlikely to take them again so if I had to choose between the two even though we’ve got uh more people potentially on Pittsburgh maybe I would do that uh because I want to save Tampa for one of these future weeks all likely week 17 so you’re gonna have to look at your pool individually Miami do they have any future value at Houston not likely I mean the game at home against San Francisco at this point they’re probably going to be a favorite in that game but not a game that we’re going to particularly love uh we’re going to have some other options let’s kind sort it by week 16 here and see what the other options are Atlanta a team that not a lot of people have taken certainly will be in play Cincinnati potentially um Green Bay with New Orleans so you’re going to have other options it’s unlikely that you’re going to be looking to save Miami to and or need Miami against San Francisco um in week 16 so Miami I would say for all intents and purposes this is the last chance you’re going to be able to take them how about Minnesota well next week you’ve got Chicago it’s not a great match up up but looking at the board if you’ve taken Baltimore already you’ve taken Arizona you’ve taken Kansas City you know now we’re getting into territory where Minnesota is going to be an option for you in all likelihood you’ve taken Philadelphia by now so you have to be careful here we don’t want to handcuff ourselves and take Minnesota this week if we have some other good options so that’s what uh you really want to look at let’s look at the next two to three weeks and make sure we’re taking the optimal path when we’re in a heads up situation especially we’re just trying to play it optimally optimally doesn’t always mean that we have to take the highest favorite this week it’s going to mean that more often than not but we want to make sure if the the biggest favorite that we could take this week is Minnesota and we also have Cincinnati as an option let’s say uh then maybe we want to hold off on Minnesota even though they may have a slightly higher probability of winning because we need them for week 15 now another team here New Orleans is getting 8% of the interest in the uh in Survivor pools they’re at the Giants tricky game um you know New Orleans I’ve got them where we have them on my sheet at a 67% chance to win that game um obviously they are a decent favored here if I had other options I would def I would be looking uh elsewhere now New Orleans in week 17 they get Vegas at home I think that’s a better spot and if I if this was the only option I had though of the teams that are U if I didn’t have the ability to take any of the teams above them that’s when I would certainly look at New Orleans at that point I’m really just going to be taking the team that has the highest likelihood of winning now if you’re in a really large pool let me just go back to the spreadsheet for a second let’s put it on 100% if you’re in a large pool one of those that we’re really looking to just we’re hoping to maybe not split with all that many people you see New Orleans and Tennessee become the two favorite options at 100% because we talked about New Orleans is not having much future value let’s look take a look at Tennessee I mean we probably don’t even have to look at it you should know that Tennessee is just not likely to be a favorite again uh for the rest of the year they get Jacksonville on the road this is obviously their best spot home to Jacksonville is the most likely of all the remaining games that they have for them to win I don’t mind this play in a massively large pool uh because of what we talked about I’m hoping there’s just chaos above me Tennessee squeaks by and I can cut 500 people down who have to survive the next five weeks down to maybe we lose 50 60% of that right and we can knock that down to 200 to 250 people in the pool which is still unlikely for me to win but at least I’ve now doubled My Equity uh potentially if we can knock that many people out it’s unlikely but again with 600 people to go it’s unlikely that you’re going to win this pool it’s unlikely that you’re going to scoop it and ship it and uh take the full amount so we’ve got to take some chances I don’t mind that as a contrarian play now if I had Tennessee available obviously you’re going to have Tennessee available to you but if I was thinking of going that Tennessee route but I also had let’s say Minnesota available to me um and we’ve got to be careful again we talked about Minnesota next week but if you had Minnesota you had Miami available to you um I would look maybe to one of these other teams maybe even a New Orleans although I could be convinced to take Tennessee over in New Orleans just because we’re not getting that much more uh pick percentage and you’re gonna want to follow Survivor grid closely to to see but we’re not getting that much higher of a a pick percentage but we’re going to be able to get a significantly higher win percentage so it sort of serves the same purpose the reason the only reason we would take Tennessee is because not many people are going to take them and we have no other uh chance to take them again but I kind of like that play in massively large pools as to be a little bit uh different and differentiate yourself in those large pools as well that’s the only time if I had Philly available to me I’m going to fade them in if if you guys ask me questions I love the questions you know that um and Philly is going to be one of the options it’s almost all so in almost all of those scenarios I am going to be advising you guys to uh to take Philly it actually gets easier from this point on in the season in making your picks because we just don’t have that much future we we’re taking a very variable out of the equation and that is a lot of future weeks so we can really start to hone in on exactly what we’re looking to take in week 14 15 16 17 you know sometimes that plan doesn’t always work out because of injuries but we could start to plan it out and that’s what I want you guys to do start marking out to week 17 and then week 18 is going to be a bit of a crapshoot um but especially if you’re in a pool with 20 30 40 people left you really want to plan this out if you’re in a pool heads up three people five people you’re going to want definitely look ahead as well uh but more so because we don’t want to handcuff ourselves we don’t want to get ourselves in a situation where if we took a Minnesota this week we’ve really got no good options for week 15 so maybe the uh a weaker option here in week 14 is better than my weaker option in week 15 and we have to play it that way all right so it’s always going to be dependent on your pool and you guys are going to drop me comments down below as you always do and uh we’ll talk it through together so good luck this week hope hopefully this helps you guys and hopefully we’ll take down a few more pools I like when you guys win your pool take down the big money hopefully we’ll do that and again guys if you could do me a favor like these videos subscribe if you haven’t already there’s a ton of you I think it’s like 70% of you guys watch these videos every single week and are not subscribed to the channel so do us a favor subscribe to the channel because you’re going to want to know when that podcast comes out I think you guys will find it entertaining all right good luck I will see you hopefully still alive for week 15
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