📅 Published on: 2024-12-28 18:07:37
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🕵️♂️ Transcript:
how’s it going Yankee fans welcome back to Fireside Yankees Alex here today Ryan is with the misses so I’m taking over solo I want to talk about the starting rotation mainly because I think this unit could be truly special I think what’s happening there is something that if everything kind of materializes the way that we think it can in terms of health and consistency this unit is stupid talented and and I think people some people are underrating just how good these guys could be it’s important to remember I mean G Cole only pitched 95 Innings this past season Clark Schmidt I he got injured on what May 26th and didn’t make another start until September 7th the missed like a huge chunk of the regular season then went to the postseason and you know they couldn’t really lean on him so I do think the addition they made in Max freed I want to talk about each individual pitcher why they could really uh kick it into that next gear and we could see this unit become one of the most dominant starting rotations in baseball which in my opinion is not only probable um I think that it really depends on the health and G Cole for the first time really experienced a little bit of Health regression you know he’s been pitching 200 Innings a year for how many years and you know looking at this situation now coming off a year only pitched 95 at a 341 erra but he was still phenomenal during the postseason he had like a two 217 ra um in the playoffs and he Domin of course that one stain uh in in the last game of the World Series where judge drops the ball the defensive mishaps like these are things that were out of his control so I think that he got a little bit unlucky there regular season he even said it himself he was dealing with General fatigue and that comes from not being able to build up I mean he missed all of spring training missed the first couple months of the regular season and they were kind of giving him that time to get going but he really did not kick it into Top Gear until we got to the playoffs and we saw him at his best I think those injuries were an anomaly in a much larger sample now it is important to note that GAR Cole is 34 years old so like eventually he’s going to hit that age where things start to deteriorate but I still think he’s an ace right now I still think he’s got one two years left of that saong caliber performance he operates at a different level than everybody else I mean we’re talking about someone that is just a picture perfect example of what you want to start into picture to be the way he works his work ethic everything about him he does everything to the inch um with just expansive detail in his game and his craft it’s an art form to him even if he loses a little bit of velocity which he lost about a mile per hour of velocity last year due to the injuries he was still able to really get his command going and it still allowed him to be extremely effective um even in the playoffs so looking at gar Cole he’s still the Ace of this unit I mean I think most people would agree with that we still got another year or two of really good performance from him before we might start to see age become a real factor in his velocity and in his um kind of overall production but adding Max free to this situation with an eight-year 280 $28 million deal I mean that’s a massive investment right you’re giving what $27 million per season to Max freed that is a huge huge allocation of money and luxury tax space but in the end this is the kind of this is the move that you had to make because of Carlos Ron’s contract in the regression he experienced um with the injuries in 2023 this year he wasn’t really Al together that good but we saw some Trends and I want to talk about Carlos Ron in a couple minutes but Max freed is one of those guys that you you look at Max Freed’s profile and you’re talking about someone that has substantial postseason experience this past season 325 over 174.jpg pole so you’re looking at a guy that velocity looked good had a you know tied his career high of 94.2 last season strikeouts were well within his career averages didn’t see any major regression there he did walk 2.94 batters per nine the highest since 2020 but still Dro in the bucket only allowed 0.67 home runs per nine uh one of the lowest marks in his career had a 72.5% left on base rate and almost a 60% ground ball R he’s a really high ground ball percentage guy huge run prevention and we talk about that run prevention as a defensive thing for the Yankees and you kind of focus on why we believe they’re going to go get a Defender for second base or third base that is a great defender because with the pitchers the Yankees have you can’t have a glaber Torres in this equation you know you can’t have these liabilities defensively you have to have strong infield defense we saw during the postseason what it did I think now the Yankees can really ramp things up and have one of the best defensive teams in baseball in terms of the Run prevention with another signing on the infield we know DJ L who was a great defender at third base we know jazz is too we know that alalo gabera is another above average guy there the offensive profile is just a problem and the age and inconsistency I know a lot of people want to see Oswell perza I think in a perfect world you bring in a guy that is a great defender has some offensive upside I mean you guys know we on the podcast we love Brendan Donovan he’d be our Dream acquisition um but we love Hong Kim great defender great base runner slightly above average bat we would be fine with that too coming off an injury may be able to get him for a little bit cheaper maybe a one-year deal even if were lucky so I mean at this point I believe Max freed plays into the strategy of better infield defense which is why we went and got Paul Goldman you know much better player than Anthony Rizzo or anyone we had at first base last season but you know Max freed is the supplement to Carlos rhon not really working out so far uh but with that being said rodan’s a really interesting player because he’s coming off this year where I kind of look at 2023 and I say to myself that was like a substantial drop off right like 64.1 Innings he picked pitched had a 685 ra he was horrible had a negative War I think Carlos Ron’s bounceback year was actually 2024 so you see what the Mets did with Luis srino you know he had that kind of off year with the Yankees he was down they bought low on him and he was a star for them last season you know this is kind of if if rhon was hitting free agency right now they’d be looking at it saying that was his first year after multiple serious injuries so before we write off rhon I kind of want to look at some stats that make me a little bit more intrigued about potential big bounce back here for him so he struck out 10 batters per nine last year which is a nice increase from nine uh in 2023 left on base percentage skyrocketed almost 20% his ground ball rate increased about 6% um you know the walks came down the home runs came down he still gave up 1.59 per9 which is a stupid High he’s got to bring that number down it was more than double almost triple what he had in 2022 and 21 so we know he can be better in that area but he pitched 175 Innings the just the second time in his career he’s pitched over 170 so the longevity is there we saw the stamina kind of you know bubble back to the surface and you know we we what we really want to see from Ron is that fast ball command return last year the fast ball was horrible 262 batting average 514 slugging rate but the slider was Elite lot of 199 batting average 361 slugging the change up 188 batting average 247 slugging so if that fast ball command if you can get that fast ball back to where it needs to be and the thing about the fast ball here is the velocity is actually pretty pretty good had the same exact uh vast ball velocity in 2021 and 2022 but that average was 199 and 21 and 213 and 22 so we saw the command fall off for rodon not the velocity but the command if he can re that four seamer back in we’re looking at having two Elite Lefty starters here so I’m not writing rodon off yet I think third time might be a charm I know he’s 32 years old but you know that contract you were supposed to get the most out of it in in the first two years that was what the Yankees were hoping but if Max freed does what he does and I think he will we’re going to have Elite Lefty starter like an ace level Lefty starter at the top of the rotation with Garett Cole and I think rhon pieces together what could be a really nice bounceback season I can see him finishing with like a 33 erra and guys a number three pitcher in your rotation with a 33 ra I think we’ll freaking take that if if you’re if you’re asking me I’m happy with that so you know I believe rhon the underlying metrics look pretty good the slider the velocity it all looks really strong it’s just the command and I think that sometimes he gets in his own head we saw in the postseason he was striking out guys like 11 strikeouts in a couple Innings and then a guy hit a double two outs in the inning and then he kind of deteriorated from there he gets in his own head like he he goes from really really good to really bad in the blink of an eye and I think the Yankees need him to take the gar Cole treatment and just like every single pitch every single battle or batter is a battle in of itself can’t really celebrate those moments in the third inning CU you don’t know what’s going to happen in the fourth fifth you still got to keep going so sometimes those celebrations and those big moments early on in the game it fuels the other team too so you know I think Ron’s got to like kind of reel in that confidence just be composed battle every single pitch every single batter is a battle it’s its own battle in a war and I think that’s kind of where I see him taking a big step forward mentally next season I can see a big bounce back year coming for rhon but that leads me to another pitcher I really really like and it’s Clark Schmidt people underrate Clark Schmidt substantially he’s 28 years old as I mentioned earlier he pitched two inning or two two months of the regular season last year got to like May 26th and then missed four months of action like that’s crazy so looking at Clark Schmidt only pitched 85.1 Innings last season had a 285 erra almost had 10 strikeouts per nine he was trending towards being one of the best pitches on this team last season 1.74 in 85 Innings is really really good if he can stay healthy his pitch mix is tremendous he’s got so many pitchers uh pitches rather he has the Sinker he’s got the cutter he’s got you know the slider he’s got the change up he’s got everything you want and they’re all pretty good um so I think that Clark Schmidt being consistent and staying healthy will be a big big big bonus for this Yankee starting rotation and a lot of teams would love to have a clarkman he’s only a free agent in 2028 so valuable to have a pitcher like Clark in the middle of your rotation he’s a number five right now you could argue Luis heels above him so you know Clark Schmid being a number five in your rotation take a second to realize how lucky that is for the Yankees most teams would die for a pitcher like Clark Schmidt to be at the top of their rotation a two or three spot we have him in arguably the four or five spot so embarrassment of riches already coming to fruition here for the Yankees if he can pitch at that high level it’s going to be a gauntlet any team going through in the postseason especially you have a three-man rotation you and then you have a couple guys like Clark coming out of the bullpen or Luis heel coming out of the bullpen you know we’re talking about really really good pitching across the board not to mention Devon Williams now our new Superstar closer if he stays healthy we know his change up is stupid insane amount of talent and Luke Weaver he proved him s to be a star last year as well so I’m pretty optimistic and pretty bullish on this starting rotation but that leads me to Luis heel and Luis heel guys you know we know how great he is a lot of people didn’t even want to move him for Kyle Tucker if that was a possibility but Luis heel was tremendous he had a 208 expected batting average last year which is ranked in the 86 percentile ranked in the 88th percentile in fast ball velocity at 96.6 now where I want to see Luis heel get better is his command with his fast ball I think everybody knows this though opposing hitters hit 205 against his for seamer at with a 395 slugging rate 28.5% whiff rate this D do one of the best fast balls on the team um but the problem is his walk rate now he walked 457 4.57 batters per nine last year gave up 1.07 home runs per nine so yeah maybe you’d love to bring the home runs down slightly but it’s not like crazy amount that it’s going to be detrimental to his game he was a 2.2 War player Al Rookie of the Year 151 Innings coming off some pretty injury prone years at the minor league level finally gets to the majors as a as a key component of this team and kicks ass I mean this dude was electric at times we saw him dominate some really good teams this this is a pitcher if he stays healthy I believe has Ace upside Luis H has legitimate Ace upside but he’s got to get that fast ball in the strike zone just those strikes that’s all we want to see nobody can touch his fastball and Ryan will will back this up nobody can touch Luis heels fast ball he just doesn’t throw it in the strike zone enough you know having a 200 batting average under a fast ball is Elite by like every single metric or perspective so you know I do think that right now if you are um the Yankees just get L heel and just have him throw strikes and use that slider it’s it’s it’s that easy for L seal it’s just getting under getting under command of his pitches that will be um what his next step in the development is but keep in mind this is a young player 26y old one year of MLB Starting experience pre-arbitration free Asian in 2029 this is one of the most valuable trade candidates on the on the market when we thought Kyle Tucker was in the mix now we know Jim cranage didn’t want to give us Kyle Tucker the Yankees said we didn’t actually want to trade L heel so but keep in mind like Lis Hill is your four or five Al rookie of the year is your number four or five starting pitcher that is a as I keep saying an embarrassment of riches so what I want really want to round this episode saying is the UPS side of this unit gar Cole we know he’s sa young caliber I’m not worried about gar Cole Max freed one of the best run prevention lefties in the game Carlos rodon his first year following substantial injuries I think he’s he’s primed for a nice bounce back gets under that gets control of that fast ball we’re going to see Carlos rhon become a key Lefty starter in this rotation which is what allowed us to trade Nester Cortez Clark Schmidt I mean Clark Schmidt was on Pace to be one of our best starters last year if he stayed healthy he has a ridiculous amount of pitches in his Arsenal really really quality young pitcher under control for many years um as your number four I mean that’s incredible and then Lis seal the AL Rookie of the Year who if he gets control of that fast ball is going to be an ace caliber starter um so I do think that right now the Yankees got something special going on in the starting rotation if now it’s usually impossible to have like everything go perfectly there’s always injuries that arise but hopefully they’re not season ending and they’re just you know maybe a couple weeks here and there it happens pitchers get hurt but if these guys reach their potential at the same time the Yankees are going to have the best rotation or I wouldn’t say the best but they’re going to have one of the best rotations in the sport and it’s going to be one of the best rotations we’ve seen from the Yankees in many many years this is the type of rotation you need to kick some serious ass in the playoffs we’re going to walk through if you if we could get a nice bat to fill second base Third Base one of those spots we’re going to walk through the American League we’re going to body the American League and then you get to the playoffs and you just survive get to the World Series and ultimately this is the type of pitching uh you know kind of Staff you need to take down the Dodgers take down the Padre’s take down the Mets and one of the best ways to counter losing woto is getting the pitches that can help you overcome the loss and beat Wan sto in a World Series and you know this is what the Yankees have done so I’m pretty optimistic really bullish on this unit would love to hear your perspectives Down Below in the YouTube comment section make sure to like And subscribe as always my friends and we’ll catch you guys on the next fard Yankees episode 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